2003Contenders

The interesting thing to me is: What happens if Luck doesn't declare? Obviously that would place a higher premium on the next rung of QBs (Mallet, Newton, Locker). How early would the first of them go?

Yea, as a result of his mismanagement of our roster filled with Pro Bowl-caliber defensive players, Edwards MUST go.

I tend to defend Modrak mainly because I am not sure who really is to blame for the poor drafting record over the years. The fact that the Bills have done much better with late round picks and undrafted free agents is certainly noteworthy. I was pretty certain after Nix took over last year that Modrak's head would roll shortly after the 2010 draft. I am not sure what to make of the fact that Modrak is still around. Does Nix like him -- and believe that he can work well as part of the Nix/Chan alliance? Or, as some of you have suggested, has Ralph labeled Modrak untouchable? If it is the latter, surely Ralph's recent comments about the lousy drafts over the past 10 years must indicate a change of heart on his part, no? Let's also remember that there are numerous reasons for a player to have an unfulfilled career. 1. Lack of talent 2. Lack of motivation 3. Inability to respond to coaching (nice way of saying the player isn't especially bright) 4. Inability to endure grind of the NFL (i.e. toughness) 5. Bad luck (injuries, etc.) 6. Poor coaching In some cases, we can lay this at the feet of the decision makers who drafted the player, but that isn't always the case. So many of our busts have fallen into varying categories that I have described above. It is funny how too many NFL people needlessly complicate things. I remember when Bill Parcells took over for the Jets back in 1997, his philosophy regarding taking over the 1-15 team was very simple: "Identify the reasons why you are losing -- and then don't do those things." The same goes for drafting players. That is, find me a guy that physically talented, self-motivated, smart, tough, and durable. Chances are this guy will NOT be a bust.

Given that easy stretch in the middle of the season against all those NFC West teams and other REALLY bad teams (at the time) like the Bengals and Browns (not to mention Saban's Dolphins twice), I always thought that team somewhat overachieved. The overreaction to the Pittsburgh game also led to a string of bad off-season moves (like not re-signing Pat W and cutting Bledose).

Yes, and the Packers saw the upside and were patient with him. They let him sit behind Favre for 3 years before handing him the reins. Most teams do not have the luxury of picking a young QB nowadays and letting him sit like that. The flip side of the coin is that the Packers could tell right away what they had in Brohm and cut him after a single year in which he never rose above 3rd string. It's funny, this time 3 years ago, there was a serious debate about which college QB was the best, Matt Ryan or Brian Brohm. Some scouts even said Brohm would be more ready to play at the NFL level from Day 1. Once talent evaluators started taking a closer look at him, they realized that Brohm had a limited upside and that he was NOT as polished as had been reported. Thus, he fell from potentially being a top 10 guy to being a 2nd rounder.

I hear ya. And I have been back and forth with this all year. Off the cuff I would say that, if the Bills can land one of the available proven coordinators, I would be thrilled -- but I wouldn't necessarily fire Edwards just to appease the masses. My initial instinct was to dislike the Edwards hire, especially when Chan, an offensive coach by trade, admitted that he would not he hiring a household name as DC. It was clearly evident the first few weeks that Edwards was definitely in over his head, trying to cram square pegs (his existing roster, which he inherited from the Cover-2 favoring Jauron) into round holes (his 3-4 scheme). However, he started growing on me mid season, as he started showing signs of being able to adapt. Frankly, I do not know that I can blame anyone on the staff for the miserable showing the last two weeks against clearly superior division foes and with a bevy of injuries to plan around. Moreover, when your offense turns the ball over 13 times in those 2 games, it is hard to fault the defense. In a way, the scheme switch didn't make much of a difference. Last year, the team couldn't stop the run -- this year they couldn't stop the run. Last year the team had trouble pressuring the QB, this year they had trouble pressuring the QB. That was further compounded by losing their only viable pass rusher (Schobel). As a counter-point, look at how much better Fewell's pass rush looked when he had a superior defensive line in New York. Assuming that young players like Moats and Carrington continue to develop and assuming the team makes some upgrades via the draft and free agency (not counting Merriman, whom I am NOT counting on), I would be willing to give Edwards a little latitude.

And how does the Bills' draft from 2002 look?

Sounds like smart conventional wisdom. When was the last time the Bills did the obviously smart thing with a first round pick?

There will be no trade possibilities if the team does as they did last year and races to the podium with each pick within a minute of being on the clock.

I commented in another thread, that I believe the team's greatest weakness (even greater than its underwhelming number of blue chip players) is its lack of depth. They should try to keep serviceable players like Poz and Whitner so long as it doesn't break the bank. (In Whitner's case, it looks like he expects them to break the bank for him, which means adios.)

Many fans in Houston said something similar back in 2003 when the Texans took Andre Johnson with the #3 overall pick, one pick after the Lions drafted a "can't miss" WR from Michigan State named Charles Rogers. Look, I think they need to go after some big men (both OL and DL) before they do anything else, but if they honestly have this kid ranked as their top NFL player, they shouldn't by-pass him.

I know both of these last two losses hurt because they were so out-classed in both contests. However, a closer look reveals that the team was playing with practice squad players in a number of key positions in both games. The team that was routed in back-to-back weeks by the Pats (who have been crushing EVERYBODY) and the Jets was very different from the team that peaked 4 or 5 weeks ago. That healthier team played toe-to-toe with the Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers, and Bears -- four teams who have made it into the playoffs, two of which have a bye in the first round. The problem continues to be depth, which I am hoping will be partially remedied with a good draft in April. With better depth, a little better luck in the injury department and a few solid improvements here and there, I believe that this team can compete with MOST of the teams in the league.

Do you think she really thought Cinci was better? I believe the anti-Buffalo thing was sour grapes when Lewis didn't get the head coaching gig back in 2001. What I heard was that Gregg, who was an underdog at the time for the job, really blew Donahoe away in his interview. Meanwhile, Lewis, was perhaps over-confident that the job was going to be his (remember, Donahoe had even waited until after the Super Bowl to interview him), and showed up with a "You sell ME on the job" kind of attitude that turned Donahoe off. When Lewis didn't get the job, he and his agent (who went so far as to accuse the team of being racist) started a smear campaign against the Bills and the city of Buffalo in general. His winless record against the Bills (0-5, I believe) was his just deserves.

The Bills have so many needs at so many positions that I wouldn't cry regardless of what position they drafted there (except for RB) -- provided, of course, that they take the best player available. As for a corner? I do see bigger needs elsewhere, but McGee is damaged goods, Florence was a liability all year and McKelvin is not the sharpest tool in the shed. Can you really say that they couldn't use a real shut-down corner?

No, I was listening to him on Mike and Mike this morning. The conversation there was just about the general notions of having a bye heading into the playoffs, home field advantage, resting starters, etc. As for the hangover stuff, it wouldn't surprise me considering that Kelly always had the reputation as a party animal who showed up on Sundays hurting from the night before. I've never held that against him in terms of the SB losses, since it was normal behavior for him during the regular season and the rest of the playoffs when he played well enough to get the team to the Super Bowl in the first place. The bottom line is that those Bills teams were built to compete against Marino's Dolphins, where they were asked to shut down the passing game on defense and score quickly on offense. Alas, they were not a good match for those power-run offenses and dominating defenses in the NFC East. And, as luck would have it, all four Super Bowls had to be against NFC East teams. I always thought that the Bills would have matched up much better against the 49ers.

This is a perfect example of how worthless these rankings are. For example, Brady only passed for 140 yards against the Bills on Sunday, which (by this silly passing yards allowed stat) would indicate a good game for the pass defense. Anyone think that the pass defense had a good game?

Not whining about the refs, given that the Bills ARE handily being outplayed by the Pats*. However, the Bills are one of the least penalized teams in the NFL and are getting flagged on ticky tack calls. Meanwhile, the Pats are getting away with obvious fouls -- and key ones like PI, face mask, and unnecessary roughness.

Great. More locker room propaganda for Brady and the Patriots heading into Sunday's game. I can just see it now, BB to Brady: "Hey, Tom. Suggs says that Fitz is a better QB than you..."

Agreed. Remember, Chan was even able to make a decent QB out of Kordell Stewart for awhile there. I honestly believe that he was confident enough in his own abilities as a tactician to believe that he could "fix" Trent. He took that as a challenge -- but after two weeks realized that Trent was a hopeless cause. Miami was a winning team (7-6) when the Bills played them. In fact, they were coming off a victory against the Jets.

Heading into the season, I predicted that they would go 5-11. The outcome (in terms of W/L) for each game has been pretty close to what I predicted. I had them winning the opener against Miami but losing on the road to the Dolphins and beating the Jags at home, but I have, otherwise, been correct with my preseason predictions. Now, at the midway point, when they were 0-8, I was fearful that if they didn't somehow get the monkey off their backs that that they had a chance to go winless. However, remember that their last three losses in that 0-8 stretch were all games against division leaders that were decided by 3 points -- and 2 of those games had gone into overtime. So you could tell that they were getting better, and I had a good feeling that they would eventually win a game. Also, when I made those preseason predictions, I presumed that a 5-11 record would be representative of what kind of team they would be; I did not expect them to be nearly as competitive against strong teams. Even if they lose their last two, I believe that this year's 4-12 squad is superior to the team that went 6-10 last season.

I read Ralph's comment completely differently. I think he was doing the following: 1. Applauding the Buffalo players for their intensity and consistent effort this season. Essentially, he was saying that this collection of "diamonds in the rough" has managed to turn heads largely because so many of the more heralded players over the years haven't worked out. I think the image of the Bills as a rag-tag bunch of no-names is beginning to catch on around the league, and Ralph was echoing that with pride. 2. Applauding the coaching staff for doing more with less. 3. Re-emphasizing the importance of being patient and staying the course in difficult times, especially with young players. Also, I think the admission that the last 10 drafts have been bad was a stab at past regimes (Donahoe's, in particular) and perhaps even an admission that he allowed non-football guys (like himself, Marv, Jauron and Brandon) to have too much say in the post-Donahoe years.

We are on the same page here. The success rate for later-round and undrafted free agents as compared to the early-round draft picks for the past decade is astounding. I have always speculated that too many non-football folks in the front office had too much say in the first 2-3 rounds. The fact that Ralph called out the organization for its dismal drafts over the last 10 years, while Modrak still has a job (he could have been relieved of his duties after the draft last April if Nix/Ralph were unhappy with him) -- tells me that Ralph places the blame for those drafts somewhere other than at Modrak's feet. I actually trust the combination of Gailley/Nix/Modrak to get it right, and maybe Ralph will contribute by not meddling.

Yes, but the Giants were able to do that WITHOUT having to blitz because they could get pressure with their fantastic front four. Someone started a thread about drafting to beat the Patriots, and I agree with that philosophy. That is what Polian did back in the 80s when the Dolphins owned the Bills. His ambition was to build a team capable of stopping Marino and the Dolphins: an offense with enough firepower to keep up coupled with a pass defense predicated on applying a strong pass rush. I would have to say that Polian did a masterful job here. (Alas, those teams were NOT built to stop the power running teams from the NFC East -- but I digress.) The Bills' drafts for the past decade have been visionless: no direct correlation based on acquiring players necessary to win the division. If I were calling the shots, I would place a HEAVY emphasis on pass rushers in this year's draft, regardless of what "scheme" they fit.

Here is the thing. I would put Whitner in the class of player that Nix mentioned (he called these players "good"), when he talked about the Kelsay extension. A team needs to keep a corps of players like that so they are not constantly having to retool every year when there are other positions that are not close to being "good" that need to be filled. It also helps that Whitner WANTS to be here. The only problem is that I guarantee you that Whitner is asking for money comparable to what an elite player makes. While he may be serviceable, he certainly is no Ed Reed or Troy Polomalo -- and there is no way that he warrants that kind of compensation. If the Bills can re-sign him for $2-3 M per year, then that is fine by me. If not, let him see what he can get paid elsewhere.

I keep saying that -- unless somehow Luck is magically on the board when the Bills pick -- the Bills' decision about whether or not to take a QB in the draft in the first 4 or 5 rounds says more about their long term prognosis of Brohm and Brown than it says anything about Fitz.