2003Contenders

That actually is kind of what they did last year. Under the Levy/Brandon regime the emphasis was on YOUNG guys. Case in point, guys like Whitner, Lynch and Maybin were all underclassmen who were barely 20 at the time they were drafted. I think the faulty concept was to draft them young and bank on longer careers. Funny that with the status of both Maybin and Whitner being "tenuous", there is a good chance that all 3 of these guys who were drafted for their potentially lengthy livelihood could very well be off the roster before the 2011 season (assuming there WILL BE a 2011 season) begins. My assessment of what the Bills need to do to get better: 1. The weakest part of this team IMHO was the LB corps. If Merriman can get back to where he was 3-4 years ago that would be a big shot in the arm. Obviously there are plenty of doubts there. I consider Poz decent -- but not great. He certainly isn't a big play maker. Maybe he is "good" in the sense that Nix described Kelsay after the questionable extension. If the team can extend him without breaking the bank, I think they should do so -- and focus on improving the other LB spots. Moats was a welcome surprise in the second half of the season, but he is a pass rush specialist and a liability against the run. They definitely need an upgrade at the other ILB spot (assuming they bring Poz back). Here is where they need to find someone that is a true play maker. The way I see it, they need to place a premium on finding a beast at ILB and should add more depth at both ILB and OLB positions too. 2. Improve the DL. I would start by getting rid of Stroud -- and finding an improvement to Kelsay, who would be best served as a reserve. Maybe Carrington can fit that bill? Edwards should be serviceable, but Williams was the only guy that played well last season. I have high hopes for Troupe. But it sure would be nice to have a studly Wilfork type to dominate the point of attack. More beef at DT would also allow the team to mix-and-match with their multi-front look by moving Williams inside and out depending on down and distance. It would also allow them to keep the big bodies fresh. 3. Build depth along the OL. I think they are in good shape along the interior with Wood, Levitre, Urbick, and Hangman. They could probably use another quality body there for depth. I see Bell as average at LT -- and the RT position the biggest weakness. I would look for a starting RT in free agency and draft both OTs and OGs in the middle rounds. 4. The team needs a legitimate passing-catching TE. I am not sure why the team has neglected this position for so long. Really, since they let Jay R go after the 2002 season. I don't know that Nelson, who I really liked coming out of college, will ever be what they need. Obviously, there are other things that need to be improved too (like cutting down on turnovers and finding ways to get pressure on the QB). However, if they can address these 4 key areas -- all of which, I believe, are doable in a single off-season -- I believe they can make significant strives to move toward the postseason.

The Steelers haven't exactly been the worse for the wear since he left, right? Cowher is certainly a very good coach but nowhere near the league of someone like Bill B. The word also is that he wants total control wherever he goes. Sounds like a recipe for disaster -- as darn few head coaches have succeeded as GM too. I won't be shaking in my boots IF the Dolphins do sign him.

Agreed. Recall also that when Moulds pulled his stunt in the infamous Miami meltdown, Mularkey wanted to suspend him for the rest of the year, but Ralph chopped his balls off by insisting that MM not sit him for more than a game. After the season, Ralph forced him to fire all of his assistants -- and, as a result, MM had trouble finding quality assistants willing to come. That's when he knew that the deck was stacked against him and resigned.

John, I appreciate the optimism. I really do. But Luck appears to be a once in a generation talent -- and the Panthers are well aware of this... even if they are not interested in acquiring him themselves. As of today, assuming he comes out, he will be the #1 overall pick. Even if the Panthers are not interested in him, as you suggest, they know they can ask a king's ransom for some team to move up to get him. Think back to the Chargers in 2004 with Eli Manning and conversely what the Cardinals did to the Chargers in 1998 to move up one spot for Ryan Leaf. The only way I can see the Bills acquiring him is if they trade next year's #1 (and possibly more) in addition to their own first round pick this year to move up 2 spots. Personally, I would be willing to do that. However, I don't know if Nix and company will.

Besides, even with the ammunition that NE has, there is a substantial difference between the #1 overall pick and a mid first rounder (which mercifully is "all" they are getting from Oakland), even if it is paired with another late first rounder and early 2nd rounder. With Luck not being an ordinary #1 pick, I doubt that the Panthers would even trade the pick to the Bills for their #3 overall pick and their 2012 #1 (which would likely be another high first rounder).

Yea, I don't think anyone is disputing that Luck is the consensus #1 overall pick if he comes out. The problem is that the Bills are picking #3.

The interesting thing to me is: What happens if Luck doesn't declare? Obviously that would place a higher premium on the next rung of QBs (Mallet, Newton, Locker). How early would the first of them go?

Yea, as a result of his mismanagement of our roster filled with Pro Bowl-caliber defensive players, Edwards MUST go.

I tend to defend Modrak mainly because I am not sure who really is to blame for the poor drafting record over the years. The fact that the Bills have done much better with late round picks and undrafted free agents is certainly noteworthy. I was pretty certain after Nix took over last year that Modrak's head would roll shortly after the 2010 draft. I am not sure what to make of the fact that Modrak is still around. Does Nix like him -- and believe that he can work well as part of the Nix/Chan alliance? Or, as some of you have suggested, has Ralph labeled Modrak untouchable? If it is the latter, surely Ralph's recent comments about the lousy drafts over the past 10 years must indicate a change of heart on his part, no? Let's also remember that there are numerous reasons for a player to have an unfulfilled career. 1. Lack of talent 2. Lack of motivation 3. Inability to respond to coaching (nice way of saying the player isn't especially bright) 4. Inability to endure grind of the NFL (i.e. toughness) 5. Bad luck (injuries, etc.) 6. Poor coaching In some cases, we can lay this at the feet of the decision makers who drafted the player, but that isn't always the case. So many of our busts have fallen into varying categories that I have described above. It is funny how too many NFL people needlessly complicate things. I remember when Bill Parcells took over for the Jets back in 1997, his philosophy regarding taking over the 1-15 team was very simple: "Identify the reasons why you are losing -- and then don't do those things." The same goes for drafting players. That is, find me a guy that physically talented, self-motivated, smart, tough, and durable. Chances are this guy will NOT be a bust.

Given that easy stretch in the middle of the season against all those NFC West teams and other REALLY bad teams (at the time) like the Bengals and Browns (not to mention Saban's Dolphins twice), I always thought that team somewhat overachieved. The overreaction to the Pittsburgh game also led to a string of bad off-season moves (like not re-signing Pat W and cutting Bledose).

Yes, and the Packers saw the upside and were patient with him. They let him sit behind Favre for 3 years before handing him the reins. Most teams do not have the luxury of picking a young QB nowadays and letting him sit like that. The flip side of the coin is that the Packers could tell right away what they had in Brohm and cut him after a single year in which he never rose above 3rd string. It's funny, this time 3 years ago, there was a serious debate about which college QB was the best, Matt Ryan or Brian Brohm. Some scouts even said Brohm would be more ready to play at the NFL level from Day 1. Once talent evaluators started taking a closer look at him, they realized that Brohm had a limited upside and that he was NOT as polished as had been reported. Thus, he fell from potentially being a top 10 guy to being a 2nd rounder.

I hear ya. And I have been back and forth with this all year. Off the cuff I would say that, if the Bills can land one of the available proven coordinators, I would be thrilled -- but I wouldn't necessarily fire Edwards just to appease the masses. My initial instinct was to dislike the Edwards hire, especially when Chan, an offensive coach by trade, admitted that he would not he hiring a household name as DC. It was clearly evident the first few weeks that Edwards was definitely in over his head, trying to cram square pegs (his existing roster, which he inherited from the Cover-2 favoring Jauron) into round holes (his 3-4 scheme). However, he started growing on me mid season, as he started showing signs of being able to adapt. Frankly, I do not know that I can blame anyone on the staff for the miserable showing the last two weeks against clearly superior division foes and with a bevy of injuries to plan around. Moreover, when your offense turns the ball over 13 times in those 2 games, it is hard to fault the defense. In a way, the scheme switch didn't make much of a difference. Last year, the team couldn't stop the run -- this year they couldn't stop the run. Last year the team had trouble pressuring the QB, this year they had trouble pressuring the QB. That was further compounded by losing their only viable pass rusher (Schobel). As a counter-point, look at how much better Fewell's pass rush looked when he had a superior defensive line in New York. Assuming that young players like Moats and Carrington continue to develop and assuming the team makes some upgrades via the draft and free agency (not counting Merriman, whom I am NOT counting on), I would be willing to give Edwards a little latitude.

And how does the Bills' draft from 2002 look?

Sounds like smart conventional wisdom. When was the last time the Bills did the obviously smart thing with a first round pick?

There will be no trade possibilities if the team does as they did last year and races to the podium with each pick within a minute of being on the clock.

I commented in another thread, that I believe the team's greatest weakness (even greater than its underwhelming number of blue chip players) is its lack of depth. They should try to keep serviceable players like Poz and Whitner so long as it doesn't break the bank. (In Whitner's case, it looks like he expects them to break the bank for him, which means adios.)

Many fans in Houston said something similar back in 2003 when the Texans took Andre Johnson with the #3 overall pick, one pick after the Lions drafted a "can't miss" WR from Michigan State named Charles Rogers. Look, I think they need to go after some big men (both OL and DL) before they do anything else, but if they honestly have this kid ranked as their top NFL player, they shouldn't by-pass him.

I know both of these last two losses hurt because they were so out-classed in both contests. However, a closer look reveals that the team was playing with practice squad players in a number of key positions in both games. The team that was routed in back-to-back weeks by the Pats (who have been crushing EVERYBODY) and the Jets was very different from the team that peaked 4 or 5 weeks ago. That healthier team played toe-to-toe with the Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers, and Bears -- four teams who have made it into the playoffs, two of which have a bye in the first round. The problem continues to be depth, which I am hoping will be partially remedied with a good draft in April. With better depth, a little better luck in the injury department and a few solid improvements here and there, I believe that this team can compete with MOST of the teams in the league.

Do you think she really thought Cinci was better? I believe the anti-Buffalo thing was sour grapes when Lewis didn't get the head coaching gig back in 2001. What I heard was that Gregg, who was an underdog at the time for the job, really blew Donahoe away in his interview. Meanwhile, Lewis, was perhaps over-confident that the job was going to be his (remember, Donahoe had even waited until after the Super Bowl to interview him), and showed up with a "You sell ME on the job" kind of attitude that turned Donahoe off. When Lewis didn't get the job, he and his agent (who went so far as to accuse the team of being racist) started a smear campaign against the Bills and the city of Buffalo in general. His winless record against the Bills (0-5, I believe) was his just deserves.

The Bills have so many needs at so many positions that I wouldn't cry regardless of what position they drafted there (except for RB) -- provided, of course, that they take the best player available. As for a corner? I do see bigger needs elsewhere, but McGee is damaged goods, Florence was a liability all year and McKelvin is not the sharpest tool in the shed. Can you really say that they couldn't use a real shut-down corner?

No, I was listening to him on Mike and Mike this morning. The conversation there was just about the general notions of having a bye heading into the playoffs, home field advantage, resting starters, etc. As for the hangover stuff, it wouldn't surprise me considering that Kelly always had the reputation as a party animal who showed up on Sundays hurting from the night before. I've never held that against him in terms of the SB losses, since it was normal behavior for him during the regular season and the rest of the playoffs when he played well enough to get the team to the Super Bowl in the first place. The bottom line is that those Bills teams were built to compete against Marino's Dolphins, where they were asked to shut down the passing game on defense and score quickly on offense. Alas, they were not a good match for those power-run offenses and dominating defenses in the NFC East. And, as luck would have it, all four Super Bowls had to be against NFC East teams. I always thought that the Bills would have matched up much better against the 49ers.

This is a perfect example of how worthless these rankings are. For example, Brady only passed for 140 yards against the Bills on Sunday, which (by this silly passing yards allowed stat) would indicate a good game for the pass defense. Anyone think that the pass defense had a good game?

Not whining about the refs, given that the Bills ARE handily being outplayed by the Pats*. However, the Bills are one of the least penalized teams in the NFL and are getting flagged on ticky tack calls. Meanwhile, the Pats are getting away with obvious fouls -- and key ones like PI, face mask, and unnecessary roughness.

Great. More locker room propaganda for Brady and the Patriots heading into Sunday's game. I can just see it now, BB to Brady: "Hey, Tom. Suggs says that Fitz is a better QB than you..."

Agreed. Remember, Chan was even able to make a decent QB out of Kordell Stewart for awhile there. I honestly believe that he was confident enough in his own abilities as a tactician to believe that he could "fix" Trent. He took that as a challenge -- but after two weeks realized that Trent was a hopeless cause. Miami was a winning team (7-6) when the Bills played them. In fact, they were coming off a victory against the Jets.