2003Contenders

While I agree with some of what you are saying, I would actually start Chris Kelsay at DE ahead of either Edwards or (especially) Johnson. He gets a lot of heat around here, but at least he has the ability to consistently provide pressure, which I believe he would be freed up to do with both Williams and Dareus on hand to command double-teams. Of course, this all depends on Williams making a full recovery. I am still a bit worried about the mysterious nature of his injury. The Bills clearly need to make a move in the off-season to upgrade the OLB position, regardless of what scheme they use. I think we can pretty much forget about Merriman. If he is able to make a full recovery, then that is gravy. However, I think one of the flaws of this off-season was placing too much faith in Merriman's ability to make a return this year. Nix said repeatedly heading into the draft that they felt that they were in good shape at OLB; clearly he was counting on Merriman being a force. As for the ILB position, they will need to address that too, since Barnett is no spring chicken. I am eager to see how Shep plays down the stretch. Will he be a fixture at ILB/MLB -- or will he just be a depth guy? Safety play has been exceptional. I think Wilson and Byrd form one of the best tandems in the league, and Scott provides very good depth. I want to see what Aaron Williams brings to the table in these final games. I also want to see what McGee looks like from here on out to evaluate whether he still has enough left in the tank to consider keeping him. I am actually OK with Leodis for now. I know he is a favorite whipping boy around here, and his ball-playing skills are very bad at times. However, he is actually a VERY good cover corner; it's just that those big plays where he fails to come away with an INT or knock the ball down tend to be so magnified. Personally, I have seen enough from D. Florence, who either gets beat or commits a foolish penalty way too often. Bottom line is that one way or another, the team needs to acquire another CB. (Slightly off-topic) Assuming that little or nothing is done in free agency, I would rank the Bills' draft needs as follows: OLB (need an impact player) WR (need a quality starter opposite Stevie; Nelson is fine in the slot) CB (even if Aaron Williams looks great, can never have enough quality CBs) OL (at least for depth) QB (need a developmental QB) TE (Chandler is OK, but depth is necessary) DL (Again, depth. Also, need some insurance for K Williams -- and I am not liking what I see from Troup) ILB/MLB (At least for depth; potential replacement for Barnett)

Yea, looking at it week-to-week is not a good way to gauge things. It should be obvious that the top QB in the division is Brady by a mile. I would rank Fitz second. Sanchez remains the luckiest man in professional sports to have a job; he is surrounded by unbelievable talent and is only asked NOT to do anything foolish game in and game out. I would rather have Fred Jackson than Greene/LT but the rest of the Jets' offensive players are man-for-man as good as or better than the Bills' at every other position. Meanwhile, Moore is just a place-holder until the Dolphins find a new QB in 2012.

Do you guys really think Ralph has anything to do with the day-to-day goings on with the Bills for the past couple of years?

Here is the thing... Obviously Chan likes running multi-WR sets. So doesn't it stand to reason that to run these 4 (and sometimes 5) WR packages, you would want to have multiple quality receivers? It is imperative that the Bills keep Stevie AND find a suitable 2nd WR (either via the draft or free agency) as well. I am happy with Nelson in his current role, but the Bills need a speedster opposite Stevie to stretch defenses -- someone who sees the ball in the air and says, "That is MINE!" Like him or not, Stevie is a quality receiver. No, he doesn't deserve Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald money. However, he is a decent middle-tier WR1 and deserves to be paid accordingly. I think it is fair to rank him in the same category as, say, an A. Boldin or S. Holmes. It shouldn't break the bank to retain him AND sign another quality WR too.

I hate to say it, but I really think that Rex and the Jets took some of Chan and the Bills' mojo away. It was almost like they were bullied into submission. (Think "Water Boy" and Henry Winkler's being terrified of Jerry Reed.) Thanks to an inept QB, the Jets managed to allow the Bills to stay around in the football game until the 2nd half. However, the Bills did NOTHING on offense and really didn't even try anything creative. Even the Wildcat (which I am not a fan of -- but at least would have been something different) was never utilized. The beat-down had a lingering effect as we saw last week in Dallas. The game against the Dolphins this week now becomes the most important game in the Chan/Nix era. If they can travel down to South Florida and rediscover their mojo, then they just may be able to get back on track. Remember a rematch against the Jets the following week awaits. Hopefully then someone can sit Chan down and convince him to imagine that Rex's head is that of a baby...

There is a reason why Rob Ryan has had trouble keeping a job. Still, I really wish that Chan would have hired a top DC when he took over, rather than an inexperienced guy like Edwards. An offensive-minded head coach really needs to have a top drawer DC. When I saw that they had brought in Dave Wanny in the off-season I had high hopes. Of course, who knows how much input he really has? Also, the truth of the matter is that the Bills simply do not have the horses they need right now, so I am not sure how much coaching at any level would help this sad state of affairs with the defense. I am troubled by the quantity of draft picks that have been invested to help the defense the past 2 years -- and the lack of any immediate return.

Just goes to show what a disaster the Marv years were in terms of personnel decisions. Very little remains from those 2006/2007 draft classes.

As Bill Parcells famously said, "You are what your record says you are." The Dolphins, even after the victory are just 1-7 with only the Colts with a lesser record. They are tied with the Rams. Personally, I would rank the Dolphins ahead of the Rams, given that I think they are the better team and the Rams are a couple of weeks removed from that upset win over the Saints.

I will say that George Wilson did a poor job selling the play. After he got up he looked around rather suspiciously. That may have influenced the ref's ultimate ruling.

I think what happens with McKelvin is that he has excellent coverage skills -- but poor ball skills. So what happens is that the 1-2 plays that he gets out-muscled for the ball are somewhat magnified. There are so may plays I have seen where he winds up committing PI, where he probably could have had an INT if he had gone for the ball. Also, since he has a reputation as a player with these poor ball skills, refs are less likely to give him the benefit of the doubt on PI calls. I honestly thought he played pretty well yesterday; the big PI call on him was clearly bogus. Actually, the guy that I have been least satisfied with this year has been Florence -- and sure enough, he seemed to be the guy (not Leodis) that the Jets zeroed in on yesterday.

1. Were the Jets a more physical team? Yes. They dominated the line of scrimmage and controlled the game from the start. 2. Are the Jets more talented, benefiting from better drafts over the last several years? Yes. I do not think you can even argue this, no matter how much you love the Bills. I would take Fred over Greene/LT but where else are the Bills better in terms of sheer talent? Personally, I would take Fitz over Sanchez because I believe that Sanchez is their weak link. However, if the Jets had a truly elite QB, they would be the best team in the AFC. Period. With that said, I also believe that the Eagles are a vastly more talented team -- and yet the Bills found a way to beat them. 3. Did the Jets play lights out, maybe their best defensive game of the year? Yes. There was clearly a sense of urgency with the Jets on Sunday. Maybe it was the extra bye week of preparation. Maybe it was because they felt like they matched up so well against the Bills and were very confident. Maybe they understood that the game represented a 2-game swing. A loss would have put them 2 games behind the Bills; a win put them in a virtual tie but with the tie-break advantage. For some reason, the Bills didn't get the memo about the importance of this game. The Jets didn't even do anything all that special; they just executed exceptionally well, especially on defense. Sometimes you just have to tip your hat to the opponent, and say "Good game. Hopefully, we will return the favor next time." 4. Did the Bills make too many mistakes yesterday? Yes. Fitz was wildly inaccurate (less than 50% completion percentage), missed some open receivers and tossed 2 INTs. Fred had his first fumble of the year and dropped a couple of passes. The WRs were erratic, dropping a number of passes too. Special teams allowed a huge return to open the 3rd quarter, which greatly impacted field position for the next several possessions. Drayton Florence and Leodis had their usual melt-downs. 5. Were the Jets aided by the refs frequently? Yes. The George Wilson non-INT reversal was terrible. That gave the Jets 3 points. I wonder if Wilson may have hurt his cause by acting somewhat suspicious when he got up? The Plaxico non-call on PI was ridiculous. The same ref called PI on Leodis on the next series, which looked like pretty good coverage. Was that a bias against defense -- or just a bad ref aiding the Jets? Those 3 calls alone add up to 17 points for the Jets that they MAY not have scored otherwise. I hate PI calls unless it is obvious interference, so I will not complain about all the non-calls on Revis. Still, the calls were very inconsistent. The point is that the refs certainly did the Bills no favors yesterday. There any number of reasons why the Bills lost to the Jets yesterday. There may not be anything the team can do about some of these issues (at least this year), but they can certainly work on the things that they can control. If they can approach each game as a must-win (which is probably the case now after yesterday, anyway) and cut down on mistakes, they will win more games than they lose going forward.

With the benefit of a good night's sleep, several things have somewhat dawned on me. So these thoughts are going to be VERY random... As much as we may dislike Rex and the Jets, the simple truth of the matter is that they are a heck of a football team. Aside from their QB, who may be the luckiest guy on the planet to have found himself in such a fortunate situation, their team is pretty well stacked. Just one more example of how much better their drafts have been than ours over the years with quality first rounders like D'Brick, Mangold, and Revis who were all drafted during the Levy/Jauron era, while we have virtually nothing to show from those wilderness years. Sanchez/Holmes/Burress/Keller/Tomlinson were all first rounders. Our corresponding players were all either late-round draft picks or undrafted free agents. Much like Bill Polian did back in the late 80s, when he was looking to build a team designed to stop Marino's high flying Dolphins, the Jets were built to stop Brady's spread passing game in New England. It is no wonder, then, that the Jets have advanced beyond the Pats in the playoffs the last couple of years. And guess what? That Jets team is also capable of stopping the Bills' similar short/quick passing game. For as tough as the Bills' OL has been all season long, the real reason that they have given up so few sacks is because Fitz gets the ball out of his hand so quickly on short passing routes. The Jets did a great job playing physical at the line of scrimmage with their front 7 and trusted their corners in man-on-man situations. Some may be worried that other teams will use this blueprint against the Bills. I am not worried; there are not many teams in the NFL that CAN do what the Jets defense did yesterday. To stop the Bills' attack, it is necessary for the defense to control the line of scrimmage, cover all 4-5 receivers AND make sound tackles. The Jets did all of those things yesterday. Like many of you, I came away from the game thoroughly disenchanted with Chan's coaching yesterday. However, I really do NOT believe it was a case of his being out-coached by Rex. When you have superior talent, as Rex does, you are usually going to win, as long as you minimize mistakes. The Jets came ready to play. Some of that was probably due to confidence, as they truly felt that they matched up against the Bills very well (which obviously they do). But, their execution was also fantastic. Given their superior talent, when they execute in the manner in which they did yesterday, I doubt that any coach in the league could devise a scheme given the existing Buffalo Bill players that would have resulted in victory, given how well the Jets played. If the Jets had a legitimate QB, the game would have been over by halftime. I actually came away even MORE impressed with Chan and the job that he has done this year with the what he has to work with. What yesterday did for me was expose the talent gap between the Bills and the more elite teams in the NFL. And, yes, despite their underachieving early in the season, the Jets are an elite team. When they execute as well as they did yesterday (especially on defense), they can beat anybody. The Bills simply are not good enough (especially in the trenches) to man up and beat a team like the Jets mano y mano. They have to limit their own mistakes, hope that the opponent makes some big mistakes of their own, and creatively come up with a big play here and there. It seemed like Chan's failing yesterday was perhaps overestimating the talent of his own team -- and NOT coming up with creative ways to manufacture points. Where were the wrinkles? Trick plays? Maybe Rex goaded Chan into playing the macho man game. The problem is that when a bantam weight goes toe-to-toe with a heavyweight and tries to win by exchanging punches, the odds are just not very good for a victory. Now, before you get the idea that I am saying that the Bills are DOOMED due to this talent gap, I think it is quite the contrary. The Bills have already shown that they are capable of beating good teams -- and that as a well coached team, they tend to minimize mistakes, while feeding off the opponent's mistakes. Chan needs to forget about this game and focus on devising a game plan to beat the Cowboys this week. Rex is sure to provide his brother Rob with some intel in terms of a defensive gameplan, but the Cowboys' defense is NOT the Jets'. Their pass defense is suspect, and Marshawn Lynch just ran for 135 yards against them yesterday.

I got that same impression. At the beginning of the game after Tom B brought up that Chan had coached Aikman's Cowboys to 2 playoff appearances, he was quick to respond that they didn't win a playoff game -- so his firing was understandable. In the second half when the route was on, he spoke glowingly of Chan and how Jerry admitted that his biggest mistake was in not giving Chan a fair shake. Aikman even went as far as to say that the team that Chan inherited was getting old and that what he was able to do with them was commendable. He also raved about the Kelly-era Bills and what an achievement it was for them to go to 4 straight Super Bowls. He didn't even mention that 2 of the losses were to his Cowboys. Clearly someone at FOX told him to change his tune. I will say, though, that I agree with him about the Wildcat. Brad Smith is pretty good at converting those 3rd and 1 plays into fist downs -- but I otherwise cringe when I see him with the ball.

The Jets may or may not be a good team -- but they have been (and likely will continue to be) a match-up disaster for the Bills. The key for the Bills is going to be stopping the run -- and forcing Sanchez to beat them with his arm.

It is unfortunate that he did virtually nothing for the Bills and has already provided a modest ROI for the Jets, but that is the way it goes. It still doesn't change the fact that he was NEVER going to be a difference-maker for the Bills, nor does it change the fact that the Bills were foolish to invest such a high draft pick on him. Maybin was and is a fringe player. He has a great first step but no other appreciable skills. That makes him a decent pass rusher in obvious passing situations, where he can come after the QB unimpeded. His lack of strength and agility means that he is never going to be suited for an every-down role. Hence, for a defense like the Bills' that was and is poor and in desperate need of an impact player, he was a colossal bust. Meanwhile, for a proven defense like the Jets', he is a worthy role player.

No. The whole reason that the Raiders made this desperate move is because Campbell just had surgery and is going to be out several weeks.

Chan should take a page out of Sean Payton's playbook, and use CJ in some of the same situations that Payton uses D Sproles.

A few thoughts... 1. There is no denying that the defense is bad. They can't rush the passer, stopping the run remains an issue -- and DBs have trouble covering when the opposing QB has all day waiting for routes to develop. 2. The realization of the above truth places unnecessary stress on an offense that has been pretty good. It is to the point, where the lack of faith in the defense has led to some questionable (and overly reckless) offensive play calling at then end of football games. 3. With that said, the defense did NOT force any turnovers against the Giants -- and as bad as the defense played, if Fitz doesn't toss those 2 INTs (or at least one of them), the Bills probably beat a pretty good Giants team on the road. 4. The OP's comments about the method of winning by HAVING to rely on turnovers may be valid. However, it should be pointed out that no team in this league (not even the undefeated Packers) is a complete package. Thus, it will not take a pristine performance to win each week. Yesterday the Bills D (minus 3 veteran starters) recorded no sacks, no turnovers, allowed over 400 yards, committed a number of VERY costly PI penalties -- and still darn near beat a good Giants team on the road.

I wonder if this list includes the "non-catch" in Cinci.

Yes, this may be the same thing that happened in Dallas. (Do not want to speculate.) Back when Parcells referred to him simply as "the player". The claim at the time was that it was an accident -- he had inadvertently taken a double-dose of pills.

Yep. Allowed just one sack to the team that is/was leading the NFL in sacks. And that one sack was more of a coverage sack as Fitz had nowhere to go with the ball. I wouldn't say that this is the best OL in the NFL, given that I think Fitz's quick decision making and Gailey's short/quick pass routes have as much to do with it. Still, it is MUCH better than I anticipated that it would be -- and even depth (Hairston, Reinhart) is beginning to show up.

I don't know. The Bills all but quit last week after the officials blew the Stevie "no catch" call.

Well, Miami was the actual scene of his ultimate undoing. Everyone points to the Arizona game in Week 4 of the 2008 when he suffered the now infamous concussion. However, he did come back 2 weeks later and play very well against the Chargers. The following week the Bills traveled to Miami, went into halftime with a lead -- and even scored a TD (with Marshawn doing an embarrassing dance) on their first drive after the half. Then all hell broke loose. Trent was stripped by Joey Porter and fumbled in the endzone. He fumbled a QB sneak. He made an ill-advised INT... I can remember all of this like it was yesterday... How do you think Trent feels. That is also the game where Terence McGee cam back too soon from an injury and got torched by... Ten Ginn.

The Bills already have 3 wins. That probably takes them out of the Luck sweepstakes even if they lose the remaining 12.

They probably could (and for all we know maybe already have) subtly make a transition like this without technically changing job titles, etc. I will say that the issue to me with the defense yesterday (which is somewhat backed up by the comments that we have seen from Chan and some of the players) was that they underestimated the Bengals. I believe that this underestimation was an in-game mistake rather than a let-down after the big win over the Pats. It seemed that when they went into the second half up by 14, they expected the Bengals' offense to lay down and die. Rather, to their credit, not only did the Bengals come out in the 2nd half ready to play -- they came out poised and wisely figured out that their best bet was no to panic and stick with their running game. Some posters here are complaining that the Bills should have come out trying to blitz more in the second half. For anyone who watched the game, the Bengals took that option away from them by patiently sticking with their running game. Thus, even when they were just getting 3-4 yards per attempt, the Bengals found themselves in make-able 3rd and 3 or 3rd and 4 type situations. While the DL has improved and teams are having trouble running it up the gut, opponents are still having success taking it to the outside and getting way too many yards. One thing I noticed on one of Benson's longer runs in the 3rd quarter is that Merriman is something of a liability in the run defense. Too often he rushes toward the inside and fails to contain his outside gap responsibility -- which allows the runner to get to the outside for a big play. There were plenty of missed tackles especially on the Bengals' final two offensive series. I am not sure how much of that we can blame on coaching.