2003Contenders

I think 2 simple moves would be enough: 1. Get the RIGHT head coach. 2. Get the RIGHT QB. Now, who those two individuals are, I have no idea.

Ralph is not the worst owner in the league -- in fact, far from it. Given his age and health, I highly doubt that he has had very much to do with the day-to-day football decisions in the last few years. Did he make some mistakes in years past? Yes. Some of his firings over the years have come at poor times: Saban, Wade and Polian to name just a few. Let's dis-spell a couple of common myths about Ralph now: 1. Ralph is cheap. Where I do believe that he has been cheap is in his willingness to pay top dollar for coaches. I think that is more of a matter of his not placing enough stock in the importance of the head coach. Still, he was reportedly willing to pay Mike Shanahan $10 M a couple of years ago. And was apparently willing to pay Bill Cowher whatever he wanted. Perhaps, he has learned the error of his ways as he closes in on the century mark? Meanwhile, he has never been opposed to paying top dollar for players. Mario Williams is the obvious example. Look back to the Super Bowl years. Guys like Kelly, Thurman, Andre, Bennett, and Bruce were all amongst the highest paid at the respective positions. 2. Ralph is a meddler. I know that Butler and Donahoe both complained about him being a meddler -- but he is nowhere near the meddler that Jerry Jones is or Al Davis was. In fact, when Ralph hired Donahoe he gave him the title of President, and pretty much gave him control of the team. Donahoe may have had to get Ralph's approval on some budgetary issues, but any praise or blame for those year (2001-2005) rest on Donahoe's shoulders, not Ralph's. The common whines we have heard is that Ralph liked to call daily to check in with the respective GMs (even today, Buddy says Ralph continues to do this). Is that really such a problem? Shame on the owner of a nearly billion dollar franchise for getting a daily check on the state of affairs!

Can we all please stop with the Buffalo self-loathing? Although Nix was blowing some smoke at the time of the Chan hiring about having so many different requests for interviews, the fact remains that there were many reputable people interested in the job who would have accepted if it had been offered. Marty, Brian Billick (who was pissed that the Bills did not even want to talk to him), Frazier (who was actually the favorite to get the job), and Perry Fewell (who was probably the most logical choice.) It sounds like once Cowher recommended Chan that Buddy had a somewhat single point of reference. Coming off a firing as OC for the Chiefs and a mostly lousy effort as a head coach at Georgia Tech, there is no way that Chan Gailey was the best man for the job. The problem, really since Wade left, is that the GMs have way too often and in way too many ways tried their best to debunk conventional wisdom. That has been true of draft picks, and it has also been true of head coach hires. Go back to 2001. Donahoe had the right idea: he interviewed Marvin Lewis, Jon Fox, Sean Payton, Ted Cottrel, and Gregg Williams. We all know who got the job. At least Gregg was the DC for a very good Tennesee defense. In 2004, when TD hired Mularkey, he was coming over from the Steelers as their OC. Guess what? Their offense sucked so bad in 2003, that for a very rare moment in the last 15 years, the Steelers actually picked ahead of the Bills in the draft and managed to land Big Ben, the player the Bills really coveted. In 2006, Jauron's last job was as the DC and interim head coach for a TERRIBLE Lions team. Neither of these guys warranted a head coaching gig at that time. (I do often wonder what would have happened with Mularkey if he had not been saddled with Losman; he actually did a pretty good job in 2004 with Bledsoe under center.) Heck, if we go all the way back to the mid 80s, other teams were not knocking down doors to get to Marv. He was blessed with some fine talent -- and a solid coaching staff to whom he felt comfortable delegating power. Less than a guy who may be good at drawing up plays on one side of the ball or another, the Bills need a coach who is a leader and capable of making logical decisions on gameday. They do not need another fool that believes he is smarter than the rest of us.

Hey, Pete, tell me like you done before. About the rabbits... how you're gonna let me take care of the rabbits.

While this game may have sealed his fate, I highly doubt that he gets fired tomorrow. That's not Buddy's style. The move will wait at least 2 more weeks.

In terms of his talent evaluation, the quality of the drafts, etc. I am mostly happy with Nix. In fact, I think barring a few upgrades (most importantly to the QB position), this team has the talent to be a genuine playoff contender. For as much as I have defended Chan in the past, his absolute inability to see things that the rest of us can see with open eyes has placed me firmly in the category of those who believe that he should be fired at season's end. Even with Fitz being an average-to-below average starter, a better coach would find a way to overcome his limitations rather than showcase them. Why call a bomb on a 3rd down play, when a simple conversion ices the game -- and Fitz is so inaccurate on those types of passes? I think a better coach would have found a way to get wins in the Rams and Titans games for sure -- and possibly the Houston and 2nd Patriots game as well. It really is a shame considering the "favorable" schedule and mediocrity in the AFC this season. And if Nix does not see that, then he deserves a ride out of town as well, despite the mostly strong personnel moves he has made.

Your break down is no great surprise. Fred is one of the best blocking RBs in the league, so it stands to reason that there is a dropoff between him and CJ in that department. Gailey could solve that problem by staying committed to the running game, right?

If there were a Luck or a RG3 in this year's draft then I would have gone with "C". However, the crop at QB is not that great. That means that they draft someone with upside, who may need a year or more to sit and learn. Another possibility is that this rookie gets the start in that final game, if the Bills have long since been out of contention.

Part of the problem over the last 13 years in the wilderness is that there has been no continuity. First there was Gregg, who dismantled Philips' defense and tried to institute a West Coast offense with RJ. After an epic collapse, Gilbride was brought in as OC, and that worked the first year -- until Bledsoe's decline. Then there was Mularkey. At least he had the good sense not to monkey with the defense too much. Then came Dick Jauron, who tried to institute a totally new defense with his Cover-2. He was so enthralled with the defense that he completely overlooked the offense -- and hired some terrible coordinators. Fewell I won't count since he basically just finished Jauron's stretch. I will never for the life of me understand why Nix didn't just retain Fewell at head coach and bring in Chan to coach the offense. At the time, Chan was an unemployed offensive coordinator. He certainly would have jumped at the chance to land the job. That would also have meant continuity on the defensive side of the ball, which was at least adequate under the Jauron/Fewell regime. Instead, Chan brought in an over-matched Edwards to try to convert the base defense to a 3-4. After 2 miserable years, they scrapped it -- and have now gone back to a 4-3 with Wanny. I think the next 4 games are monumental to the direction of the team. The defense certainly has improved over the last few games. They have actually been quite good the last 2 weeks. Can they end the season on a high note? I have to think that if the defense had played this well from the get-go, the team would be in playoff contention. I think everyone who has watched this team knows what the verdict is on Fitz. He is an average-to-below-average NFL starter, who is capable of having big games -- but is simply too inconsistent to ever be better than average. I think Chan too often clings to the times when Fitz is effective, and believes that he can be a quality starter if only he can improve his consistency. With the defense improving and 2 quality RBs on the field, logic would dictate that Marty Ball is the best prescription. Alas, Chan is not Marty -- and feels compelled to force the passing game when it is entirely unnecessary. Still, if he had a better and more consistent QB at his disposal, you would have to think that would make a big difference. Assuming they end the season strong, I can live with the current coaching staff, provided that the front office goes out and does whatever is necessary to find the long term fix at QB.

The talk at the time was that after Marv/Ralph forced him to fire his coordinators (Jerry Gray and Tom Clement) that he was having trouble finding any serious candidates willing to interview for the vacancies. Thus, he tendered his resignation. There was also a story at the time also that when a teacher was calling roll and noticed the last name of one of the students was Mularkey, she joked "As in the soon-to-be ex-coach Mike Mularkey?" without realizing that the kid was indeed the child of the coach. IIRC, Mularkey supposedly shared this story with his buddy Jim Mora.

I think barring an epic 0-5 meltdown the rest of the way (and no changes in ownership) that Buddy's job is safe. By extension that means that Chan is safe too. Although, I could see where Buddy may force Chan to take more of a step back and delegate the play calling to someone else. I have never really liked to see head coaches overly involved in the the play-by-play management of a game. Chan used to be a really good in-game play caller, but lately that simply has not been the case. He seems to have lost the art of devising a sequence of plays that allows the offense to get into a rhythm. Of course, that is severely magnified by having such a streaky QB. Still, the problem remains that Chan just tries too often to debunk conventional wisdom. Is he trying to show everyone that he is smarter than all of us? Or, is he so worried about an under-manned team that he tries to overcompensate? Speaking of which... I believe that in terms of heads rolling, Fitz's pretty much already has. I think Nix's comments weeks ago were pretty revealing. Really, with better QB play, I believe that this team could very well be 7-4 or even 8-3. I also think the lack of reps from Tavaris and Thigpen tell us all we need to know about the future of these guys. I suspect that perhaps Nix/Chan admired Jackson from afar -- but once they brought him in, maybe realized that he was missing some key ingredients. Obviously, they do not trust him. Remember, Thigpen was almost a final roster cut. Fitz does get rid of the ball quickly, which has helped mask some deficiencies with the OL.

One thing I was looking for in the broadcast of the game last night that never transpired was commentary from Mike Mayock on Cordy Glenn. Mayock was one of the most out spoken proponents of the notion that Glenn had the potential to be a Pro Bowl guard or even a decent RT but that he was never going to make it as a LT. Not saying that he was right or wrong at this early juncture about his assessments, just thought it was interesting that the highly opinionated Mayock did not bring that up. Maybe he was duped by Nix's pre-draft leaks that THEY did not feel that Cordy would ever be able to play LT.

AT the time I remember thinking that maybe the call was going to be a QB draw or a bootleg.

I could not have said it better myself.

The most ironic thing is just how BEAUTIFULLY designed that play was. Fitz had so many options -- Stevie in the end zone to the left, CJ in the flat to the left, Chandler underneath to the right, and Graham to the end zone on the right -- that had the Patriots blitzed, Fitz would have had an open and quick target. The offensive line did a great job giving Fitz plenty of time. he had enough time to look right, left and then right again. In fact, the initial look to the right had drawn the DBs to that side and left Stevie alone in the back of the end zone. It is debatable whether or not CJ could have scored as there was one defender in front of him trying to protect the first down marker. However, he was certainly wide open and would have likely converted the first down, if not scored. If Graham was indeed the primary target on that play, the Gleason was right in his column this morning blaming Chan for over-thinking the play.

Brady's defense also forced 3 turnovers. The Bills' D had at least 2 INTs go right through their hands.

Sad thing is that even if it were a TD, does anyone doubt that with about :30 and 3 timeouts that Brady would not have put the Pats in the position to kick a game winning field goal.

The one thing that Jauron did well was put together a pretty good game plan to exercise damage control with a really bad team. I honestly think DJ did a good job those first two years (in 2006 with Losman starting all 16 games and in 2007 with the ridiculous rash of injuries) to actually get to 7-9. His bend-but-don't break defense and plodding offense tended to shorten the game, which is why we rarely saw blowout defeats but all too many 4th quarter heart breakers. That is the type of football you play when your team is devoid of talent and you are just trying to survive the season. The problem, of course, is that he was never able to get beyond that style of play -- and the horrible personnel decisions (some of his own making) never remedied the root cause of the problem. Also, the style of defense when it is not working -- which was always the case against Brady's Pats, for example -- is more like death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts than bend-but-don't-break. In the case of both Jauron and Gailey, I have to wonder how much better they would be as coaches if they had a legitimate franchise QB. In Jauron's case, the defense was usually at least adequate whereas the offense was so putrid. The opposite is the case with Gailey.

Continuity has also been a major problem. Think about the coaching (and front office) turnover during those 9 years: Gregg Williams/Donahoe (hybrid 4-6 defense then shifted to more of a zone blitzing scheme with LeBeau) Mike Mularkey/Donahoe (at least maintained DC) Dick Jauron/Marv (Tampa Cover-2 defense) Perry Fewell/Essentially no GM Chan Gailey/Buddy (3-4 defense, then shifted to 4-3)

Arians is the guy that comes to mind for me as well, since he is not only a logical candidate but even one who is a likely one. The way I see it, if Chan gets fired that probably means that Buddy is gone too, which put Whaley in the driver's seat. Arians and Whaley both have the Pittsburgh connection.

There are some older guys out there that could be brought in as consultants right now. Maybe John Marshall?

There certainly is some merit in what you say about talent evaluation, which has been a problem dating back for a decade now. Here is my addendum to that: 1. I give the current regime a pass for their "first" draft in 2010, as Modrak was still primarily calling the shots, and the I-am-smarter-than-conventional-wisdom mind-set that was a trademark of his years as the chief college scout were on full display in that draft. 2. Part of the problem is that the scheme has been so back-and-forth. When Nix/Gaily took over in 2010, the Bills were running a 4-3 Cover-2 scheme. Edwards comes in and shifts to a 3-4 that is about as different as can be. After 2 years, he gets canned and Wanny comes in with his own version of a 4-3. Not only is there a serious learning curve involved, but the personnel required to run each of these defenses is starkly different. 3. On a related note, the last 3 years has really displayed some of the worst defensive coaching that I have ever seen. Edwards was simply in over his head. Meanwhile, Wanny is so resistant to change that he still insists on running a style of defense that is 20 years old and poorly suited to the players we have on the current roster. A good coach (like Wade) finds a scheme that best suits his existing personnel rather than the other way around. A perfect illustration is the utter misuse of Aaron Williams. His greatest strength coming out of college was his physicality and ability to play strong inside the box: great in run support and blitzing the QB. If his cover ability had been better he would have been a top 10 pick. So how is he being used? Well, we obviously see him getting torched almost every week. Has he blitzed at all this year?

Here is the obvious point: Tebow was available just a few months ago, correct? The Jets gave up a simple 4th round pick to get him, right? If the Bills were seriously interested they could have gotten him then, right? This business about the Bills having interest in Tebow seems to date back to the 2010 draft, when Schefter reported (erroneously) that the Bills were trying to trade back into the 1st round to acquire him. To this day we do not know for sure who they were targeting -- some say WR Demaryius Thomas others say DT Dan Williams -- but the team has steadfastly denied that it was Tebow that they wanted. For as much as we all criticize Fitz -- deservedly so -- he is a MUCH better QB than Tebow.

If the Bills are in the position of finding a new head coach after this season, that likely means that they will have a new GM, most likely Whaley. Usually these first-time GMs like to hire new blood at the head coach position. That probably means a current coordinator or college coach. I would look at guys who may have ties to Pittsburgh -- at least while Whaley was there. Arians maybe?

The one that stands out to me in the regular season was a Sunday night game in New England back in 1996. The Bills had struggled a bit that year but finally seemed to right their ship. This was a late-season game with the Bills and Pats both playoff contenders. Kelly led a late-game TD drive to take, I believe, a 4 point lead. Then the Patriots turned around and marched down the field -- and Curtis Martin scored to give the Pats a 3-point lead with less than 2:00 to go. All the Bills needed was a field goal to tie and force overtime -- or a TD to win. Kelly throws a pick six to Willie McGinnist. The Bills get the ball back, and Kelly hits Reed on a TD bomb to get back within 3. However, they fail to recover the on-sides kick. Pats win by 3. That loss means the difference between winning the division and being the #2 overall seed and staggering into the playoffs as a wildcard. A tired Bills team loses to Jacksonville in the opening round of the playoffs... The Patriots make it to the Super Bowl.