2003Contenders

Arians is the guy that comes to mind for me as well, since he is not only a logical candidate but even one who is a likely one. The way I see it, if Chan gets fired that probably means that Buddy is gone too, which put Whaley in the driver's seat. Arians and Whaley both have the Pittsburgh connection.

There are some older guys out there that could be brought in as consultants right now. Maybe John Marshall?

There certainly is some merit in what you say about talent evaluation, which has been a problem dating back for a decade now. Here is my addendum to that: 1. I give the current regime a pass for their "first" draft in 2010, as Modrak was still primarily calling the shots, and the I-am-smarter-than-conventional-wisdom mind-set that was a trademark of his years as the chief college scout were on full display in that draft. 2. Part of the problem is that the scheme has been so back-and-forth. When Nix/Gaily took over in 2010, the Bills were running a 4-3 Cover-2 scheme. Edwards comes in and shifts to a 3-4 that is about as different as can be. After 2 years, he gets canned and Wanny comes in with his own version of a 4-3. Not only is there a serious learning curve involved, but the personnel required to run each of these defenses is starkly different. 3. On a related note, the last 3 years has really displayed some of the worst defensive coaching that I have ever seen. Edwards was simply in over his head. Meanwhile, Wanny is so resistant to change that he still insists on running a style of defense that is 20 years old and poorly suited to the players we have on the current roster. A good coach (like Wade) finds a scheme that best suits his existing personnel rather than the other way around. A perfect illustration is the utter misuse of Aaron Williams. His greatest strength coming out of college was his physicality and ability to play strong inside the box: great in run support and blitzing the QB. If his cover ability had been better he would have been a top 10 pick. So how is he being used? Well, we obviously see him getting torched almost every week. Has he blitzed at all this year?

Here is the obvious point: Tebow was available just a few months ago, correct? The Jets gave up a simple 4th round pick to get him, right? If the Bills were seriously interested they could have gotten him then, right? This business about the Bills having interest in Tebow seems to date back to the 2010 draft, when Schefter reported (erroneously) that the Bills were trying to trade back into the 1st round to acquire him. To this day we do not know for sure who they were targeting -- some say WR Demaryius Thomas others say DT Dan Williams -- but the team has steadfastly denied that it was Tebow that they wanted. For as much as we all criticize Fitz -- deservedly so -- he is a MUCH better QB than Tebow.

If the Bills are in the position of finding a new head coach after this season, that likely means that they will have a new GM, most likely Whaley. Usually these first-time GMs like to hire new blood at the head coach position. That probably means a current coordinator or college coach. I would look at guys who may have ties to Pittsburgh -- at least while Whaley was there. Arians maybe?

The one that stands out to me in the regular season was a Sunday night game in New England back in 1996. The Bills had struggled a bit that year but finally seemed to right their ship. This was a late-season game with the Bills and Pats both playoff contenders. Kelly led a late-game TD drive to take, I believe, a 4 point lead. Then the Patriots turned around and marched down the field -- and Curtis Martin scored to give the Pats a 3-point lead with less than 2:00 to go. All the Bills needed was a field goal to tie and force overtime -- or a TD to win. Kelly throws a pick six to Willie McGinnist. The Bills get the ball back, and Kelly hits Reed on a TD bomb to get back within 3. However, they fail to recover the on-sides kick. Pats win by 3. That loss means the difference between winning the division and being the #2 overall seed and staggering into the playoffs as a wildcard. A tired Bills team loses to Jacksonville in the opening round of the playoffs... The Patriots make it to the Super Bowl.

Yea, I have the feeling that Whaley will be stepping in when the season is over. Nix is not getting any younger, and remember the rumors that he was planning on stepping down after the draft anyway. I would then expect Whaley NOT to renew Chan's contract and to look elsewhere for a head coach. Given his ties to Pittsburgh, I could see him going after a present (or former) Steeler coordinator. Maybe Arians? Agreed. He got both RBs involved and called for plays that best utilized Fitz's skill set. Part of me wonders what kind of a play caller Chan would be if he had a QB with the arm to complete deep passes.

Also, where were the safeties on that 83-yard TD from Johnson? Simply a brutal game from Wilson yesterday. Actually he's been pretty bad all season. I think that is one of the most confounding things about the defense: so many guys that we thought were going to be good going into the season have been abysmal. Kyle Williams has been decent -- but hardly his near Pro Bowl quality self. Dareus has been an outright disappointment after having showed so much promise as a rookie last year (shades of Mike Williams?). Mike Anderson is out, but even when he was healthy was a non-factor. Aside from the Arizona game, Mario is getting handled one-on-one and is thus far a bust. Kelsay is Kelsay: plays hard and is usually in the right position but misses too many clear shots. Maybe Barnett is starting to show his age? The word on Shep when he came out of college last year was that he was soft, and I think we are seeing that. Nigel is undersized -- and Scott is too small to play LB but too slow to be an effective safety. After getting toasted early in the season, Gilmore has actually turned it around to be pretty good in pass coverage. A. Williams may very well be the worst cover corner in the league. Rodgers got his opportunity yesterday and was burned badly. Byrd has played well, but he missed some tackles yesterday too, and Wilson (as I said) has looked lost all year long. So aside from Kyle Williams, J. Byrd and S. Gilmore, the entire defense has been a disappointment. Missed tackles, blown assignments... These guys often just looked lost. The worst part is that Wanny refuses to try to do anything to adjust or compensate. He seems unwilling to even try to blitz, for example.

It bounced out before Gilmore slapped it.

Surprised that there was no mention of one of the favorite whipping boys around here: Chris Kelsay. Not only was he heavily involved in pressuring the QB all day, I saw a certain mean streak about him (shoving Kolb's head to the ground, for example) that may have been contagious. I hope the camaraderie shared by the team during the week-long Arizona layover leads to bigger and better things. Reminds me of the cheeseburger outing in Seattle back in 2004 with Mularkey, which set the tone for a near-playoff run. Yes, they are a week 3-3 -- but it doesn't matter. 3-3 is 3-3. Yes, they will lose to the better teams on the schedule. Fortunately, on paper the schedule gets easier down the stretch. We will know right away whether or not the win carries over when they face the Titans at home next week. The Titans are dangerous, but they should be beatable. A win there could provide a nice boost of confidence heading into the bye.

The Bills' defenders should take note.

Excellent point. I like Fitz -- I just wish he was consistently more accurate.

Look, right now the entire defense is struggling. I am not sure if it is poor coaching, a slump, or if just one or two guys are playing bad enough where the whole unit gets blamed. Personally I am not too worried about Dareus. Like the rest of the D so far this year, he has struggled at times too -- but he HAS shown flashes even this year. Mario -- well, that is a different story. Not sure Mario he is playing hurt, dogging it after the big payday -- or if he was simply overrated. Getting back to Dareus, For anyone now claiming they did not like the pick last year, I think you are either being revisionistic (what will you say if/when Dareus turns it back around?) -- or are possibly a troll. One of his great strengths coming out of school was that he could play any DL position in any front. Last year he played inside and out in a 3-4. Could be that it is taking him awhile to adjust to playing the pure DT position in a 4-3. Also, the death of his brother may be playing a role.

What this team sadly is missing is a guy like Ray Lewis, who the other players on the team fear answering to -- even more than the coaches. During the Golden Era guys like Kelly and Talley were such leaders. It's been a long time...

I think what this reveals is that, when placed in the right situation, where the defense is holding up its end of the bargain and the running game is working effectively, Fitz can play well enough for the Bills to win. That is to say that he is a decent enough QB to orchestrate a Marty Ball style offense, but he is never going to be an elite (or even above average) QB who can pass his way to victory when the chips are down a la Brady, the Mannings, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers -- or even the likes of Romo or Rivers. The problem is: 1. Chan does not seem to relaize this and is unwilling to play Marty Ball, even though the team is actually pretty well set up to run such an offense. 2. This is further compunded by, even in the passing game, Chan does not routinely devise a scheme which suits Fitz's strengths. Where Fitz is effective is in making pre-snap reads and getting rid of the ball quickly. He simply is not good at throwing those deep sideline patterns. We all see that. Chan has to see it too, right? 3. The defense is NOT holding up its end of the bargain. The Bills get behind -- and then the offense goes into panic mode. And wa-la!

It is hard to say what Wanny and the coaches thought process is. Maybe the philosophy was to go into the season, take our lumps early on with the young guys, and see how they progress as the season rolls on? We know that McGee is playing out his careeer this year, and I was a bit surprised to see him even make the final roster. Gilmore is a rookie, and we have certainly seen him struggle at times -- but I do also see what the Bills liked about him. He is physical and will hopefully get better as he gains experience. Williams -- I am not nearly as certain about him. He was viewed as one of the best bump corners -- not to mention run stuffers -- to have come out of college in quite some time. Clearly, he has had major trouble in defending against the pass. I think the real probelm is that our coaches vastly overrated (like many of us did) how effective the pass rush would be. They wanted young, aggressive DBs who could get in the grill of the receivers and allow the DL to do its thing. The problem is that the DL has almost NO pressure, and the young corners have been left out in no man's land too long. That is why we see them playing 10 yards or so off the line of scrimmage this year; the coaches are so worried about not being able to get to the QB. In essence, they are taking away from the strengths of both Gilmore and Williams. Now, what has happened is that they have allowed the opponent to dictate the game. That is poor coaching. Last week Alex Smith hardly even broke a sweat as he was hardly pressured at all and had times to watch as guys came wide open down the field. The problem is magnified by having safeties play up too close insde the box. We've seen George Wilson get beat deep multiple times in the last 2 games. Maybe that is what happens when you train safeties to play in a Dick Jauron style Cover-2, shift to a 3-4, then back to a more conventional 4-3 all within 2 years time! For now, I would almost like seeing the safeties move back toward that Cover-2 to at least prevent the big plays they have been giving up. Let the corners (whose best trait, as I said, is being physical) play closer to the line of scrimmage -- and even blitz occasionally. Worth a try, right? Can it really get any worse? Besides, Arizona has a aterrible OL. If the defense can't create some havoc this week...

Agreed. I posted something similar last week in response too all of the people crying for a "Franchise QB". It is not that I disagree, it is just that these kinds of guys do not grow on trees -- and it is not as if the front office hasn't tried, dating all the way back to Kelly's retirement. Going back to 1995, the year before Kelly retired, the Bills have invested the following draft picks on the QB position: 1995: a 2nd for Todd Collins 1997: a 3rd for Billy Joe Holbert 1998: a 1st and a 4th for RJ 2003: a 1st for Drew Bledsoe (the deal was made in 2002) 2004: a 2nd and a 5th for Losman 2005: a 1st for Losman (see above) 2007: a 3rd for Trent Edwards 2010: a 7th of Levi Brown 2012: TBD for Tarvaris Jackson That does not count all of the free agents that they have sniffed out (AVP, Flutie, Holcomb, Vince Young...) So, just since 1998, the year Peyton Manning (the model franchise QB) was selected, the Bills have invested 3 first rounders, a second rounder, a 4th, a 5th, plus a couple more late round picks on the position. That puts into perspective what the Redskins gave up to move up a few spots for RG3, a QB they hope will be THE guy for them for the next decade. (Yes, I know that the Bills had no legitimate shot at him, given that the Redskins were picking several spots higher and had more ammunition.) IF there is a can't-miss guy like Luck or RG3 at the top of the draft this year, the Bills HAVE to do whatever they can to try to move up to get him. On the flip side of the coin, they cannot afford any more misses like they did on Losman. Of course, there were clear warning signs about JP coming out. There are warning signs for all of these guys -- other than Luck. As I said, franchise QBs do not grow on trees. And 2/3 of the team in the league are in the same boat as the Bills looking for their own franachise QB.

The one thing that I will say is this: The Vegas folks have been right on the money when predicting the Bills straight up every week. Theteam was only favored in 2 games so far -- and they won each of those games and lost the other 3. Looking back and heading into the season, I think most of us probably had them losing to the Jets and 49ers on the road and HOPING they would beat the Pats at home. So even the most optimistic of us probably had them at 3-2 at this point -- and most probably at 2-3, which is where they are. Sadly, I think most of us would have hoped for at least for a better showing in those predicted losses.

It could simply be that Wanny -- like the rest of us -- expected more from the DLine. I do wish, though, that he would do a better job of adjusting when the front four isn't getting it done.

Pretty simple actually... Harbaugh brough Vic Fangio in with him... Chan brought George Edwards. I had high hopes for Wanny headed into the season. Let's see if he can turn this thing around after crapping the bed in 2 of four games. The Niners offense is really not THAT great. If the defense can stop Frank Gore, they actually have a pretty good shot.

I have no problem with special players getting special treatment. Bruce used to notorioulsy get out of 2-a-days, for example. Thus far, Mario has not shown to be anything special.

And who, pray tell, was this young QB they passed over?

Exactly! Besides, that is A LOT to invest in a single player, whose style of play could very well land him on IR. What is the Redskins' record again?

That is so much easier said than done. I keep hearing this, but let's take a moment and do 2 things. First let's look at how many frnachise QBs there really are in the NFL right now. Within our own division Brady is the only one. Tannehill may evolve, but right now I would have to say that Fitz may very well be the 2nd best QB in our division. Looking at the league as a whole, here are the guys that I would call true frnachise QBs: Tom Brady Ben Roethlisberger Peyton Manning Eli Manning Aaron Rodgers Drew Brees I count 6 of them. Now, there are a couple more that I think are close -- and are certainly guys who I would rather have over Fitz: Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Philip Rivers Tony Romo Matt Stafford Cam Newton Stafford and Newton may even be pushing it a bit, as both are coming off one big year and have struggled some this year. Certainly from a talent perspective, they are franchise QBs. I have liked what I have seen from Luck and RG3 so far, but it is still too early to tell. So I count 6 franchise QBs, 6 who are close -- and 2-3 where the team is trying to figure out whether they have one or not. That means that half of the teams in the NFL are in the same boat as the Bills -- on the lookout for an upgrade at the position. Oh, and when you factor in that all of the 6 elite QBs I referenced have been in the league for 8+ years -- well their respective teams are on the lookout for heir apparants as well. Now, the second question I have... Many people on this board seem to believe that the Bills really have not even TRIED to upgrade the QB position. That simply is not true. Where exactly could and should they have upgraded? Really, since Kelly left -- and going back thru prior adminstrations -- the front office HAS tried: John Butler 1. Drafted Todd Collins, who turned out to be a career backup 2. Made the trade for Billy Joe Tolbert, who had a big arm but a two-cent brain 3. Brought in Doug Flutie. That turned out to be a positive move, as it was the last time that the team made it to the playoffs. However, Flutie was long in the tooth and it did not take defenses long to devise solid game plans against him. 4. Made the big trade for Rob Johnson, which was ballsy but clearly a poor choice. Tom Donahoe 1. Made the big trade for Drew Bledsoe. For half a season that looked like a GREAT trade. Bledsoe actually brought some credibility to Western New York, and that credibility even aided Donahoe in signing some big defensive free agents in th next off-season. But Bledsoe rolled over the hill FAST. 2. Offered to trade away multiple picks to move up in the 2004 draft for Roethlisberger. However, none of the teams picking in the top 10 would bite. When he missed out on that trade he pacicked, and (with Sam Wyche whipering in his ear after having been wowed by private workouts), made the questionable decision to trade away the #1 pick in 2005 and the #2 pick that year (plus, I believe an additional late-round pick) to move up to get Losman. Obvioulsy that was a mistake. Who knows how the draft board may have changed, but a certain Aaron Rodgers would have been on the board for the Bills' 1st round pick, which went to Dallas, in 2005. Losman never worked out; he simply never learned to read a defense and was not much better than Rob Johnson in terms of getting the ball out of his hand quickly. If e could take the best characteristics of Losman (big arm and nice touch on the deep ball) and combine them with Fitz's best attributes, it would be just what the doctor ordered. 3. When Donahoe unceremonioulsy gave Dre his walking papers, he replaced him with journeyman Kelly Holcomb. Emphasis on the word journeyman. Marv Levy 1. Eschewed the chance to draft Jay Cutler and instead decided to give JP one more shot. Cutler would have been an upgrade -- but he would not have been the long term answer either. He has more talent but is as inconsistent as Fitz -- and far less likeable. A year later they spent a late 3rd rounder on Trent Edwards. He had his moments -- but just never developed the art of throwing the ball BEFORE his receiver came out of the break. Captain Checkdown. 2. This was after Levy left, but since Jauron was still around and there was no real GM, I consider it part of the same adminsitration. But the front office tried to get Michael Vick -- and rumor has it that they were very close to doing so, when "someone" intervened and made thepsuh for him to go to Philly. Buddy Nix Now, the current regime has made all of the following moves: 1. Made a serious push to trade for Donovan McNabb, but McNabb chose to play in Washington instead and the Eagles' accomodated him. 2. Reportedly tried to trade up for Tebow. The front office denied this attempt, so who knows if it is true? Instead, they waited until the 7th round and drafted Levi Brown, who failed to make the final roster. The team brough him back later when injuries kicked in, but he was never able to stick. 3. Gave Trent Edwards one last shot to start -- and ended up releasing him after 3 games into the season. 4. Acquired Brad Smith as a Wildcat QB. The only pass I remember him throwing was intercepted, so I do not even truly consider him a QB. 5. Acquired Tyler Thigpen who had familiarity with Chan's pistol offense in KC. He has yet to see any serious action and renotiated his contract in the off-season to avoid being cut. 6. Brough in Vince Young, who struggled to pick up the offense. 7. Traded for Tarvaris Jackson, who has yet to be active in a single game since signing with the Bills. jackson did at least lead the Seahawks to a playoff berth 2 years ago. So clearly, the team has not sat back and ignored the position. Just since Buddy and Chan took over 2 1/2 years ago they have made 7 moves (or near moves). You could make the argument that they could have drafted Joe Flacco in 2008 instead of Maybin, but there were some questions about Flacco coming out and many thought the Ravens reached for him at the time by taking im in the middle of the first round. Josh Freeman was there for the taking in 2009, but aside from a strong 2010 season has looked awful. The QB class from 2010 looks terrible; Bradford may stick, but Tebow, Clausen, McCoy... The team was right to pass on those guys. (Too bad they wasted that 2nd rounder on Troup.) Last year they hoped that Cam would afll to them, but he didn't. They though long and hard about Gabbert -- and thus far appear to have been smart about letting him go. I suppose they COULD have drafted Andy Dalton, but I do not see much upside there. I do not see him as a long-term upgrade over Fitz. Serviceable but hardly a franchise QB. This year Luck was as good as gone before the 2011 regular season was over. Look what it cost the Redskins to move up a few spots to get RG3!

Well said. As glad as I was to be shed of Jauron, I will have to say that he knew how to get more from less. The only problem is that he was such a poor judge of talent (I refuse to blame Modrak for ALL of the bad draft choices) that he was ALWAYS trying to do more with less. His philosophy was to keep it close and try to win it in the 4th quarter. Seems like the Bills lost a lot of close games during his time here. Maybe a couple of weeks away from Orchard Park against a couple of unfamiliar teams will help this team get its mojo back. For all the fears about the 49ers, I actually think the Bills match up well against them. When playing a normal base D, I think they stop the running game -- and I am not too worried abiut Alex Smith torching them. The offense has shown that it can score pretty much against everybody. The concern is going to be that the Niners run defense is going to most likely stifle FJax and Spiller again. Fitz is going to have to avoid the big mistakes -- and realize that sometimes a punt is OK.