billsfan89

He is worth more in my opinion. Young QB's who are elite are hard to find. But realistically the Texans are going to have to hope for a package of picks that includes 4 firsts as a bedrock.

How so?

In a world where Matthew Stafford goes for 2 firsts and a third it is possible esp given how good Carr's contract is.

If they resign Mongo and D.Williams I personally am fine with the Oline. I think they play together well and the resources needed to upgrade the oline aren't easy or available. TE I wouldn't hate but it's not easy to find a prime time TE, there are only 4 to 5 in the league. I also think Knox could develop into a solid TE. I think this team desperately needs an edge rusher and possibly a big nickle to help cover TE's.

Rumors are the Raiders are trying to trade Carr and a bunch of picks for Watson. For once the focus is on keep players and plugging up a piece or two. If the team resigns D.Williams, Mongo, Milano, Roberts, Ty and Barkley I don't see too many holes on this roster just a couple more pieces needed to get the team over KC.

I agree, he could very well sign a one year 6-8 million dollar deal with the Bills and opt to hit the market with a larger cap. No use taking a longer term deal if the deal is in that aav range and the guarantee is minimal. But he is going to want to get paid. It is more so a matter of is his market good enough to out punt a solid one year deal from the Bills that allows him to hit a bigger market in 2022.

Watson is a smart player and such a dynamic, he will adapt to any system. I never thought of him as a "freelancer" like Mike Vick or other QB's that played a more loose style. Watson to me plays smart but then adapts when thing breakdown I hope for his sake he ends up as a 49er. I think the Dolphins might be the best spot long term for him as they have an overwhelming amount of capital (they could offer picks 3, 18, 36 and a 4th in 2021 and a 1st and 3rd in 2022 and a 2nd in 2023) and a team that is ready to win now and for the next 3 seasons. The Jets giving up picks 2, 22, and 66 in 2021 and a pair of first round picks in 2022 along with a 3rd in 2023 is another compelling offer but I think the Jets would be a year away with Watson. He hasn't made very much money in his NFL career, I think he wants all the money he can get.

Hypothetically had the Bills kicked the extra point and gone down 16 and then scored a TD plus 2 points on the recovered on-sides kick the Bills would have had plenty of time left plus their timeouts down just 8. They wouldn't have needed a recovered kick to get the ball back down 8 as they could have gotten the ball back even if they gave up one first down (so some margin for error on the defense too.) It would have made the game much more interesting even if Mahomes just got 2 first downs and grinded down the clock.

I could see Jimmy G and a 4th rounder to the Colts for pick 21. I think the 49ers are going to want to trade for Watson and are going to want as much draft capital to make an offer. Right now their best assets are picks 12 and 43 that's not a lot of fire power to go after Watson. Pairing picks 12 and 43 with pick 21 would at least put the 49ers in competition with the bigger offers likely available from the Jets and Dolphins. If the 49ers could trade Jimmy G for pick 21 that would put the 49ers in position to offer up a possible trade package consisting of. Picks 12, 21, 43, 103 (Comp pick for the hiring of Saleh) and 117 in 2021. The 49ers 1st and 3rd round picks in 2022 and a 1st and 3rd in 2023. That would be quite the offer for Watson, giving the Texans 4 top 103 picks in 2021 along with two future firsts and thirds to set up their future. Honestly Watson to the 49ers is my preferred outcome, it gets him out of the conference and away from the division. If I were the Texans I would prefer to get him out of the conference and while I do think the Jets and Fins could present better offers it isn't like this type of offer from the 49ers would be all that terrible.

It is hard to make perfect but there are many ways to make it better that don't include a very stupid numbers in and numbers out formula.

I really wish that the Bills kicked the extra point to go down 16 and then after recovering the kick scored a TD. Even if they weren't able to get the ball back again it would have been fun to be down one score late in the game with a small chance. Both onside kicks were great KC just did a good job fielding the second one.

It is very very stupid in my opinion because it effectively treats losing 5 guys for 15 million dollars in aav the same as signing 5 guys for 3 million each. I think the whole system needs to be reworked.

The Bills will get a comp pick if they sign less free agents than they lose from my understanding. So if they sign 5 free agents (who aren't cut by their team) and they lose Milano and 5 others to other teams they will get one comp pick. The formula is very very stupid in my opinion.

Good for Milano to seek a big deal. But let's see if there is a market for him or if he realizes that big long term deal might not be there for him. With a cap crunch or a possible cap flattening he might end up taking a 7-8 million dollar one year deal might be in his best interests to stay.

If he goes to Miami for mostly draft capital they will be in serious contention. The Jets will be better off long term but will be a year away although more competitive.

I don't necessarily know if the missing link on the offense is any type of player. Yes the team could use some speed out of the backfield and maybe an upgrade over Knox at TE. But considering how banged up the WR corps ended up being (Davis, Brown and Beasley were hurt going into the game and Diggs got dinged early on) I am not sure that there even is a "missing link" in the offense. You have 4 WR's who all are good players when healthy and complement each other well. Yes John Brown's health is now a concern again but Davis provides depth. You have Knox who looked to come on stronger to end the season and is at worst a good complementary weapon, you have an O-line that is stacked for once and you have a pair of good young RB's who can do a little of everything. To me the issue is more so can John Brown or Gabe Davis be a WR2? Brown can if he is healthy but can he stay healthy? Gabe is a nice player but is he ready to take on that role?

The problem is that unlike in 2020 when the Bills had plenty of cap space the types of proven players you are trading for aren't usually on rookie or more affordable deals. They are typically players on their 5th year option or last year of their rookie deals or very early into their second contract. Players that are either asking for huge extensions or on big deals. So while I wouldn't be opposed to a trade using the 30th overall pick I am not sure what players out there fit the bill of a dynamic pass rusher or pass catcher on a cheap contract.

I get the sentiment behind the idea, but in the end things have to even out somehow. Having a QB is such an advantage no reason to make it even more of an advantage.

The Bills found a QB the hardest piece is found, but now you are looking at those last key pieces.

That would only widen the advantage and gap between teams with great QB's and teams without one effectively you would be gifting KC 20 plus million in cap space annually when they already have Mahomes who is a large advantage. The large QB cap numbers are part of the competitive balance of the league. It is still an advantage to have a good QB even on a big contract but at least when you have to cut deep into your cap to keep them it gives other teams a chance.

I like Star to help get Ed Oliver back to playing a more pass rushing position. I think Star could move the needle. Ford will compete with Ike to start at guard but given how well Ike played I don't think he makes much more of an impact but Ford at worst adds depth to the O-line. Whomever isn't starting at LG goes to the bench and gives the O-line starting guard play off the bench unless Mongo walks and they have to play both guys at the guard position.

The better solution is to borrow from future cap increases to smooth out the cap to keep it at around 195 to 205 which would give teams 20-30 million more to work with. Or do what the NBA did and keep the cap as it normally would have been but have the players keep a percentage of their pay in escrow and then at the end of the season the escrow gets either paid back to the players or the owners depending on how the league does revenue wise. It would be the most sensible mechanism.

For once my main hope is that the team simply retains its players and then uses the draft to add the 1-2 pieces and depth needed to get the team over the top. I hope the cap can be set at 205 million which would hopefully allow for them to resign Milano, D.Williams, Mongo, Levi, Ty (I don't know why everyone is so willing to let him go he is a great depth swing tackle), Roberts, and T.Jones. I assume a few cuts will take place (V.Butler and Lee Smith would be 9 million saved) but I hope they mostly keep the roster intact free up space by restructuring guys like Klein, Brown, Hughes, Addison, Mitch and Jefferson. I would love to bring back Mac and Barkley but I think you have replacements in Fromm and Hodgins on the roster, although if the Bills get priced out of Roberts, maybe bring back Mac to field kicks. Then use the 30th overall pick to find an edge rusher and the 62nd overall pick to fill another possible need. Use the rest of your picks to fill out depth and get young players at positions where you are older. It will be interesting to see if the Bills try to run it back or if larger scales cuts are done. I think it is likely we see a surprise cut or two but hopefully they can keep the core intact and add those few pieces needed.

The WR corps was really banged up and going against a good but not great secondary. Beasley was playing on a semi-broken leg and John Brown had been banged up all season. Then Davis gets banged up against the Ravens and Diggs gets seemingly dinged up against KC. The Chiefs were then able to bring pressure due to the good coverage and make the Bills offense one dimensional (due to KC's offense putting up so many points.) The Bills O-line was going to be under a lot of stress even without the blitzing due to Jones and Clark so once the blitzing commenced the team was just not going to be able to protect Josh enough. The WR corps not being 100% is the domino that collapsed the chance of winning. Yes the bad defensive game plan didn't help but you need to put up 30 against KC. This team got unlucky in a lot of ways but still even if the Bills came out and had all 4 of their top receivers healthy it likely wasn't going to be their day. I think in the end the Bills are going to have to hope for a cap of 195-205 million and try and run it back and get help via the draft. Resign Mongo, D.Williams, Milano, Levi, Ty, Roberts, T.Jones, Barkley and possibly Mac and then use picks 30 and 62 to try and get a edge rusher and another TE to platoon with Knox, use the rest of the draft picks to sure up depth and get younger in areas where the team is older. It is unlikely the Bills won't lose someone of value via free agency. But if they can keep the core 4 free agents of D.Williams, Mongo, Levi and Milano and retain some of the depth players I think they can shoot their shot in the draft to get those last pieces needed and replace the depth. Run it back with 1-2 pieces added and things could pan out.

Knox to me developed into a starting caliber TE. But I am not sure if he will ever be a dynamic top 5TE like a Kelce, Kittle or Waller. And it sucks that a dynamic TE might be the last piece missing on offense. It also is unfortunate that a dynamic edge rusher might also be the last piece missing to the defense. Both of those pieces are hard to find.