billsfan89

I did mention the comp pick which should be slotted in the 97-104 range. But a pair of 6th round picks and a pick in the 97-104 range is not enough to make the Bills go from a pick in the late 1st where they are likely to be all the way to a top 10 pick which is where they will likely need to trade up to in order to get a chance at the top 3 WR's in next years draft. That's not to say extra picks won't help, but if the Bills are going to want a crack at a top WR in next years draft they are likely going to have to give up a lot more than the extra 6ths and extra late 3rd they picked up. Hell even tossing in those three picks and the Bills 2023 2nd might not be enough to get where they need to go.

If Oliver had a season similar to 2022 in 2023 he probably would have gotten a similar contract on the open market maybe even a bit more. If he had a great season he could have gotten a lot more. But that's risking injury and taking good money that's guaranteed is the smart move. I am curious as to what the cap savings are for this season? Oliver's cap number was close to 11 million on the option, how much money does the new deal free up?

McBeane since 2019 usually had attempted to get good depth along the O-line but going into 2022 the depth on the O-line was really bad. Even if you felt like you could get one decent season out of Saffold and Brown would take a leap up the bench was atrocious. Queese was the only decent backup O-line player on the roster. In 2019 they signed Ty Neshke as a swing tackle and to push Cody Ford at RT, they also signed Mongo, Spain and Spencer Long to help with depth. They also found Bates and Ike to develop behind more proven players. In 2020 they had signed Darryl Williams to push Cody Ford to the bench, still had Ty Neshke as a swing tackle, signed Brian Winters when Mongo got hurt, brought back Spain to take snaps at guard and had Bates as a super sub and Ike there at guard. In 2021 they kick Ford inside for depth, and resigned D.Williams then drafted Spencer Brown in the third round while also having Bates backup Mongo. They shifted things around with Brown taking over the RT spot and D.Williams and Bates kicking inside to guard which put Mongo and Ford to the bench. 2022 they had Queese a decent RT/G backup and no one else really. They signed Greg Von Rotten and Manc both of whom were pretty bad players even in terms of backups. They had kicked Bates to the starting lineup which hurt the team's depth and only Queese was a capable backup when the team usually had at least 3 decent backups on the bench the pervious seasons. 2023 seems to be different, assuming Torrence starts that puts Bates back to the bench as a super sub, Queese is back, Edwards was added to the bench and is a starting guard with a lot of experience and they recently added Snell a RT with a moderate amount of experience and some success. They are also kicking the tires on Ike and Doyle. I am really glad McBeane learned their lesson going into 2023 at least attempting to have more quality O-line depth while improving the guard positions.

The whole plan was to not have Mac be the slot receiver, the plan to start the season was to have Mac and Crowder split the slot WR role. Crowder was supposed to help cut up zone coverages as he was more of a traditional slot WR, less fast but a crisp route runner with solid hands who could poke holes and sit in open spots in zone coverages. While Mac was supposed to be the slot against man coverage as he simply had the speed to break man coverage effectively. But after Crowder got hurt they had to lean into Mac full-time in the slot and because of the fact that Mac simply didn't have the consistent hands and route running it just didn't work consistently. Mac is fantastic as a gadget WR4/5 he can do jet sweeps and step in on 4 WR sets and isn't the worst option if you have multiple injuries at the WR position. But he simply isn't a WR3, while he has great speed he just doesn't run routes consistently or have great hands to make up for his issues.

Definitely a B+ contract for a B- player in my opinion. Oliver is an above-average starting caliber DT but not a dynamic difference-maker either. And the Bills are going to be paying him like a player that needs to be more of a difference-maker. Can Ed develop into that? He certainly at age 25 is young enough and players at his position can be late bloomers. But after 4 seasons I would have expected Ed to have that breakout. 2019 Oliver was a rookie and he played like a starter which is a solid rookie season 2020 Oliver played like an above-average starter, he was a bit out of place due to not having a true NT on the roster but he played well despite the circumstances. 2021 Oliver stagnated, having a true NT in Star didn't do much and Oliver just couldn't keep it going and take that next step 2022 Oliver stagnated, coming towards the end of a rookie deal and a better NT next to him we all expected 2022 to finally be that year he took a massive step up. But an early injury got him off to a bad start and things just never got better. He played like he had for the most part, above average but not great. Going into 2023 a true contract year I was hoping the Bills would get an Edumonds like year out of him, seeing the big money he just shows out. I think as much as the Bills want to keep Oliver in the fold hoping for some boost in production they also like getting some short term cap relief. Don't hate the contract given the added bonus of cap relief, but it is definitely speculative and in order for it to pan out they are going to have to see Oliver take a step up in his current levels of production.

McBeane likely loaded up on picks (and by loading up adding a pair of 6th-round picks and getting a high comp pick for Edumonds) because they knew that with Josh's contract and some other roster commitments, they would need to try and get as much cheap talent as possible in the upcoming drafts. The Bills barring catastrophe will be drafting in the 20's or 30's a pair of 6th round picks and a pick slotted around 97-104 isn't likely enough to move you up dramatically into the top 10 where you will need to be in order to get a player like Harrison Jr or Wilson.

If Gabe wanted a "hometown discount" type deal taking a deal in the 8-10 million range on a modest guarantee I think McBeane would be all over it. But there is no way with the NFL WR market the way it is Gabe wouldn't want to test the market and play out his deal. Gabe with decent production could easily get 12-15 million on the open market without having a "breakout season" (if he is just a bit more efficient in 2023 he can score a big payday). It just doesn't line up for both sides.

Given the massive WR market in free agency I think Gabe's agent is not going to take the "hometown discount" deal that McBeane would likely want. Also, a Gabe Davis extension would likely not yield any significant cap savings. Whereas Ed Oliver was a top-10 pick playing on a pretty big fifth-year option. I think Beane in addition to keeping Ed long term and not having to fully turn over the DT room next season also wanted the short-term cap space an extension would provide. Likely I think they want the cap space to make a last move or two either to chase after Hopkins or add a vet pass rusher getting some space now was an added benefit to the Ed Oliver extension that does not really exist for Gabe Davis who has a tiny cap number.

I generally agree with your assesstment. I do think that Harty and Sheffeld will represent a small upgrade over Kumerow and Mac but nothing major. Kincaid is a nice add and will help add a dimension to the offense. But Kincaid is still a rookie TE and rookie TE's historically don't have major impacts. Still like the add and still think that even if he gets 50+ receptions 600ish yards 4-5 TD's while not tanking Knox's production will be a significant positive to the overall offense. If the Bills are able to add Hopkins pairing the add of Kincaid/Hopkins with the massively improved interior o-line and O-line depth (although I would still like to the Bills add a true backup LT as there is no one behind Dawkins in my opinion) the offense overall should be massively improved. Even without Hopkins in the mix I still think the offensive line additions plus the moderate moves the made in adding Kincaid and Harty/Sheffeld should lead to a more consistent offense esp against better defenses or in shootout situations. Hopkins would be a nice "final piece" to add I think he would solidify the offense and its depth at WR, it would allow Shakir to come along at his own pace for one more season and take some pressure off of Gabe short term.

This is a contract year, Ed should have all the motivation and opportunity needed to have his best season. If he isn't going to be dedicated to the mental craft of his game in 2023 then it just isn't going to happen ever.

I don't see there being cap space/money out there. OBJ signed with the most WR-thirsty team a lot earlier in free agency when teams had more cap space.

Although I wouldn't mind kicking the tires and having a nice mentor for Cyrus I think for once the Bills are both good and deep at guard. so I doubt that the Bills will go after another guard. Between Bates, Edwards, McGov and Cyrus the Bills have 4 at the very worst decent guards on the roster. I don't hate more O-line depth but I doubt Norwell wants to be the 5th guard on the roster.

The Bills were hoping to get one year of decent guard play out of Saffold and without any real fallback option the Bills had one of their biggest holes on the roster/offense.

Decent addition should push for some reps at RT, still concerned about not having a true swing tackle/Dawkins back up. But more competition for Brown and Queese is good.

I would say there is likely very little controversy for LT-LG-C. Dawkins and Mitch are the vets and the best players along the O-line and McGov was a fairly big off-season signing and a proven in his prime player at guard. RT and RG right now are where the intrigue is. Brown barring a vet signing should be in line for RT. While I would prefer Brown has competition the organization seems to mostly believe in him although I would suspect Queese and Bates will get some snaps with the first unit to kick the tires so to speak. RG is also a bit of a battle between Bates and Torrence but while I do think McBean has shown a reluctance to play rookies I simply have a high degree of faith with Torrence that he will show out in camp. I love the O-line a lot more coming into this season. Edwards, Bates and Queese are a much better first three off the bench and the guard position is much better stocked. If this team can add a vet swing tackle who can compete with Brown at RT I think they go 9 deep in a good manner.

The offense in general is a lot better equipped to win against better defenses. Diggs and Allen are still there and I think it's reasonable to expect Diggs to still be a quality WR1. But the offensive line is massively improved, both guard positions are better and the depth with Bates moving to the bench and the addition of Edwards and the resigning of Queese is much better (although I would like to see a swing tackle added). Kincaid also adds an additional passing dimension. On top of that Hines will be here the whole season and can add something to the offense. The supplemental WR/RB's are also still a solid bunch. Gabe Davis's development as a WR2 and Spencer Brown's ability to develop at RT are going to be big factors but even if both don't go great Dorsey should still be in a better positon to open up his playbook and get this offense going come post season time and be more consistent in the regular season.

Would be a nice piece to add to the DE rotation. Esp if Von might not be 100% to start the season.

If Fleming can play LT, I think he would make for a great swing tackle, he seems to have a good amount of experience and productive play. Kind of shocked he is a free agent unless his demands are super high which is likely. But if McBeane can add him with the promise of competing for the starting RT spot and at worst being the swing tackle it would be a great add. Doyle was never that great and likely will be put on IR to "redshirt" the year coming off a serious injury and the team hasn't really any quality backup for Dawkins as while I don't mind Queese as the 9th oline to play RT or kick inside if needed he isn't a LT.

Types of players you kick the tires on in training camp, not really likely to make the roster but could be a PS guy.

I hope that with Kincaid added in the mix and the hopefully better guard/o-line play leads to a more diverse offense. Better running and playaction and two TE sets.

I don't really see Miami as having that great of a roster. They certainly have a good roster, but their O-line is suspect and their depth isn't very good. I also don't like what they have as a coach. He calls good plays but his team despite the strength of the roster only finished 9-8 and most of their 9 wins came against bad opponents. To say that Miami with a questionable QB and O-line situation is better than Cincy and the Bills is outright absurd in my opinion.

Tack that on as well, so many different situations outside of the normal football adversity the 2022 Bills had to deal with.

This is just random ass backward speculation. It wasn't like the team came out sharp and Josh made a bunch of boneheaded plays or looked lost out there. Even then that's still speculation. The 2022 Bills had one of the toughest mentally exhausting seasons I can think of an NFL team facing in a decade or so. Even before the Demar Hamlin situation the Bills had to deal with the Topps shooting impacting the community, Dawson Knox's young brother's untimely death, Dane Jackson getting carted away in a scary-looking injury in the home opener, a snowstorm relocating a game while the team was suffering an flu/Covid outbreak and another snow storm killing dozens in the community and heavily impacting them during the holiday season. THEN the Demar Hamlin situation. That's in addition to a rash of normal football-related adversity such as the Von/Hyde injuries and the rash of nagging injuries that hit the team hard early in the season. The team was emotionally gassed for good reason. The whole team had been through a lot and it showed in how flat they came out. Josh's breakup had nothing to do with it.

Dalvin Cook is on a big contract that the Bills likely couldn't afford cap-wise and call me crazy but I actually like what the team has at RB. James Cook is coming of a solid rookie season, Stevenson is a bruising power back who makes for a quality RB2 and Hines is a really solid gadget player. The team also has some vet depth/insurance with Murray on the roster. If the Bills are going to make an "All in" type move to add one more piece to the roster I would rather go after a RT/WR to solidify the offense or a defensive piece like a MLB or pass rusher to reinforce the defense.

Dolphins number 2 is him trolling the Bills Mafia for clicks, don't give him the satisfaction. If I am ranking the top 5 I would put it KC (Defending Champs and they have the talent/pedigree to be in the spot) Bengals (AFC champs 1 year removed AFCCG last year with a lot of talent) Bills (strong roster, great QB and really no other roster on in the AFC as complete top to bottom besides KC and Cincy) Ravens (QB who can be dynamic, more WR talent to add with Andrews at TE and a solid defense) Jets (Solid all-around roster with a vet QB in Rodgers who still has something left in the tank a few holes on the roster but still a good team) You can't seriously make an argument for the Fins whose QB is both an injury concern and not that dynamic and a roster that has some holes.