billsfan89

The issue with the Bills offense was more so being more effective in the red zone and moving the ball "easier" against better teams and in certain situations. The Bills put up a lot of points and moved the ball well but in the red zone where teams could double Diggs easier and force others to beat you the Bills at times struggled. The Bills also lacked a conventional running game at times and supplemental weapons when Diggs was doubled or even tripled at times. Hoping the improved interior O-line and the addition of Kincaid the Bills can be more consistent in the redzone and make things easier for Josh against better defenses.

I doubt Beane cares about proving doubters wrong. The staff probably felt like Spencer Brown healthy with a full off-season to work on his game would make a good RT but still brought back Queese a decent vet backup and Shell an experience RT as competition. Would I have liked better competition for Brown? Yeah but it isn't like there isn't options on the roster if Brown struggles. In regards to Davis the team did spend a 1st round pick on a pass catcher that will likely allow them to be less reliant on Davis and signed Hardy to help alleviate pressure on Davis. The team also seems to be in on D-Hop so clearly not shying away from trying to find more WR help. The Bills being up against the cap and missing out on top WR talent in round 1 simply had to make a choice on how to invest resources and went with a more prudent approach. Had they had a better chance to upgrade from Davis I think they would have. Who knows maybe D-Hop is still in the mix?

Cowherd is a blowhard who is immensely unlikable. His point was true the past two off-seasons in 2021 and 2022. Von and the DT's on the interior along with Elam being the first-round pick were where heavy resources went to the defense when in reality the Bills likely could have invested more in the offense. 2021 had a similar focus with both of the first two draft picks being defensive linemen and most of the cap dollars being spread toward the defense easily could have balanced things out more to help Josh and the offense. But in 2023 the priority resource-wise has been shifted more towards the offense. The Bills biggest external free agent contract was McGovern and the first two draft picks were spent on the offensive side of the ball. Also, a lot of the smaller signings like Hardy, Harris, Sheffield, and Edwards were on the offensive side of the ball. Outside of resigning Ed Oliver, there wasn't really much action or resources spent on the defense. A third-round pick and some late-round picks were tossed into the defense, so draft wise there wasn't really much. AJ Klein, Jordan Phillips, and Shaq were resigned to minimum or close to minimum deals. Poyer was resigned to a mid-level contract and Poona Ford signed to a deal that was lower mid-level at best. The only significant defensive signing was Floyd whose deal is not exactly a massive one and was done late in free agency and was a huge discount for a player of his value. The Bills are also still in on D-Hop by all accounts and have some cap flexibility (they can restructure Dawkins and extend D.Jones to free up some space and if they are more inclined to take on risk Tre White can also be restructured) so I wouldn't rule out one or two more offensive late stage free agency acquisitions.

The Bills are bottom 5 on dead cap this season and from 2020 to 2022 despite being up against the cap and trying to win now desperately have been bottom 5 in dead cap two of those seasons and bottom 10 in the other. The low dead cap number and the team having a highly successful roster is a sign that the Beane is doing a dam good job

No team that Dhop would want to play for has a ton of cap space. The Bills and KC are near the bottom of the league in terms of cap space. Baltimore has about 12 million in space not that much to work with. Even second tier teams like Miami and The Browns aren’t flushed with cap space. Only eight teams have more than 20 million in cap space and one of them is Arizona. Most of those other 7 teams are not appealing situations other than maybe Dallas. So It will come down to how big is the difference between the offers and what Dhop will want more cash or a better shot at contention? The Bills still in the mix in my opinion

I think the Bills will need to consider future dead cap charges for restructuring. Hyde is older and coming off an injury, and given the safety market this past offseason I think they just let Hyde’s deal play out rather than go for short term cap help. Tre is another one I think they don’t restructure as they likely want to keep the flexibility of being able to cut him if he can’t come back from his injury. Right now the dead cap on Tre for 2024 is already large at 10 million but it still provides some savings opening up 6 million in space and the dead cap in 2025 the last year of Tre’s deal is fairly minimal. But Dawkins would be a solid option to free up some space as he is fairly young doesn’t have a major injury history and doesn’t have too many years left on his deal. A D Jones extension is a toss up. Jones is 31 at a position where 31 is not ancient but is not young either. He doesn’t have an injury history and the Bills only have one other DT on the roster signed for next season. But the Bills might want to keep their options open as Poona Ford who will be 29 in 2024 with less years in the league may be a better use of cap dollars? Based on my own opinion they won’t touch the Tre and Hyde deals but they will do Dawkins and could go either way on Jones. Good to know if the need a little more space for another move they can find It

The Bills only bad contracts (and in this sense bad means a deal that the Bills will have to eat a lot of dead money on) are Von Miller, Knox and Tre. I don’t think they are headed for a rebuild. They will have multiple free agency and draft classes to replace a lot of the older players that you mentioned will be gone. The Bills also aren’t in a position where they will have to eat a lot of dead cap in a single season either so they don’t have to rebuild if they can draft fairly well and hit on some free agents. Looking at the more dangerous Bills contracts outside of Von It is not too bad. The earliest the Bills can get out on the Von deal is after 2024 and that would require them to take a 15 million dollar dead cap change. Tre’s deal in 2024 comes with a 10 million dollar dead cap hit, his 2025 dead cap hit is low. If Tre looks completely shot in 2023 then the Bills may eat the big charge but if Tre looks solid they will just keep him and It won’t be an albatross. Knox’s deal has two outs, one is in 2025 when It comes with a 7.79 million dead cap the other is in 2026 when the dead cap is only 3.9 million. Knox probably will still be productive but overpaid in his contract. None of those deals are really going to tank the Bills ability to compete in the coming years

TwoBillsDrive cap scientists does anyone know what the Bills can do to make any more cap space? Are there any more restructures they can do? I’m not sure if there are any other extensions they can do either. Just interesting to see where the Bills can go cap wise if they want to make a last move or two. After adding the veteran edge they needed, the Bills needs are less but WR, back up LT and MLB are all still additions the Bills can make.

I can see a DC job coming his way, but HC will be hard given his age and the trend towards offensive coaches

Not a bad move for the Jets but I don't see this moving the needle that much for them.

Has anyone been able to see how much the cap savings are for Oliver's deal? Sorry if it has been posted.

I think Pat McAfee would think of it as ESPN buying in...

My worry with Hopkins is as good as he is he hasn't finished the last two seasons. Don't get me wrong I think he still has something but what I think is the true gain from Hopkins is allowing Davis, Kincaid and Shakir to grow a bit more at their own pace to start the season. Even if Hopkins gets hurt 8-10 games into the season and misses a lot of time Hopkins still allows those younger players to step into their role more gradually to start the season. If Hopkins can stay healthy then it is only a bonus.

I just don't see Von being that same guy coming off an ACL at his age. I think he at best starts the season on the PUP list (which makes the addition of Floyd more needed) and then Von takes the rest of the regular season to round back into form. Hopefully by the playoffs he can have that big time run having shaken off the rust.

Platooning D-line players is a way to try and wear down opposing Offensive lines and it has thus far for the Bills had a mixed impact. The Bills from 2019 to 2021 had a quantity of average to above-average players. Guys like later career Jerry Hughes and Addison were leading the charge and it worked against lesser units or banged up teams. But in the playoffs the Bills lacked that elite pass rusher to close games in big moments. 2022 they not only beefed up the middle of the DT rotation but also brought in Von as the closer which worked until he got hurt.

Von was a true chase a title “all in” move. A true mortgage a piece of your future to win now

Not shocking Beane is being more active in later stage free agency. The team has some depth needs and not a lot of cap space. Going after the top end of the later free agency market is probably where great value can be found. Hoping this team can get Hopkins and a decent swing tackle to round out the offense.

Shaq is a JAG, not bad but certainly not dynamic. And at his age he just is what he is. He sets the edge above average against the run and is a below-average pass rusher but not tragic. He is a great vet rotation/depth player. The Bills usually carry 5 DE's and Shaq being your 5th guy is a good thing. Floyd will likely slot into a rotational slot early in the season and get good snaps. With Von likely to start the season on the PUP list the Bills need to find one more player at DE and they got a solid option this late in free agency.

The Bills depth need along the O-line is LT in my opinion. I love Dawkins but if he got hurt who the hell is his backup? Doyle was never that great and is coming off a torn ACL. Queese, Snell and Brown are all RT's. I don't mind McBeane brining back Queese he is a solid vet backup and can flex around a bit and Snell was some nice competition for Brown, but why is there not a contingency for Dawkins on the roster? If the Bills can add a true decent swing tackle and Hopkins they will have done all they can do in terms of roster building.

As I said previously I think the only bad contracts on the roster are possibly going to be Knox, Von and Tre. All three of which the team can reasonably get out of by 2025. I agree Beane has done a good job not eating a lot of dead money which is a huge positive but each year he restructures deals that becomes more and more a possibility but also a needed evil with a massive QB deal. Looking at the contracts that are larger I see the following scenarios where dead cap may have to be eaten. If Tre never regains his form or anything close to it in 2023 there will be a long hard look at his 2024 contract, the Bills are on the hook for a 16 million dollar cap number in 2024, if they cut Tre they save 6 million on that number. IF Tre is just a shell of himself then they may just eat the 10 million and be done with him and stick to Elam and cheaper players. If Tre is at the very least solid to good they stick it out for one more year and then in 2025 he is a lot easier to cut as the dead cap would only be 4 million on a 16 million dollar deal. Knox's dead cap in 2024 is 20 million so he is staying at a cap cost of 14.4 million in 2024 which is not great although the Bills can restructure him to save a few million but that would push his dead cap higher down the line. The closest the Bills can get out of his deal is 2025, the Bills could eat 7.8 million in dead cap and save about 7.5 million that season. 2026 the Bills have a better out only having to eat 3.9 million on a 15.9 million dollar cap number. Von's deal is the one where Beane is likely going to have to eat a big dead cap number at some point. 2024 the dead cap is huge so Von isn't going anywhere. In 2025 the Bills have a chance to save some money but will eat a dead cap of 15 million if they cut him after 2024, it would save about 8 million on the cap. After 2026 the Bills have a more tenable out but will have to eat 9 million. 2027 the Bills have an easy out in eating on 2.6 million on a 32 million dollar cap figure. Von's deal is interesting as if he has a bounce back in 2023 the Bills can restructure his 2024 deal to take his cap number down from 23 million to around 10 million. But how that would impact his dead cap in 2025-2027 is something I don't know too much about. Ideally, I hope Von has a nice 2023 and the Bills can lower his cap hit in 2024 and get one or two more decent years out of him and then get out without too big of a dead cap hit. But likely I see the Bills just eating a big dead cap number in 2025.

I had a vet pass rusher as one of the pieces that the Bills needed (and could get) on defense. Von is likely going to start on the PUP so having a guy like Floyd who can can add a bit of punch to the pass rush in Von's absence was a nice add. I see 3-4 holes on the roster. WR, swing tackle and MLB. Adding D-Hop would fill the WR need and hopefully, they can find a swing tackle so Dawkins has an actual backup on the roster. MLB is likely not going to be filled but I can live with Klein and the younger players, if a cheap vet is there to kick the tires on why not?

Beane's strategy from 2021-2023 isn't that far different from the Saints. The Bills have restructured almost every contract they could and made short-term moves to chase a ring like the Von Miller deal. It isn't like the Bills are being all that prudent. My point in bringing up the Saints was that if the Bills want to be contenders and "go for it" year in and year out they can for the most part as long as ownership is willing to pay out bonuses. I do agree that Beane has thus far has been a bit more prudent than other teams in some senses but I can't honestly say the Bills haven't been robbing Peter to pay Paul for a couple of years now.

The point about the Saints is that if you really want to rob Peter to pay Paul you pretty much can for a long time. The Saints rarely lose good players due to the cap is mainly the point. They also are able to if they want to go after players in free agency such as Carr. It isn't to say they are ideal but rather that if you are willing to eat the money as an organization you can manipulate the cap in many different ways to get yourself out of cap trouble short term and push things out so to speak. The Bills aren't really tied to too many bad contracts, they let Edumonds walk which will yield a high comp pick and not tie them to a huge contract to a linebacker who while good is not elite. The only contracts that I think could be bad and hard to get out of are the Tre White, Knox and Von Miller deals. In 2024 the Bills can cut Mitch, Poyer, Harty, Bates and Hines for a very little penalty. In addition to those possible savings the Bills can restructure Josh and Diggs in 2024 to save nearly 30 million on the cap. They also can restructure Von for another 12 million in savings if he has a nice bounce back 2023. McGovern, Milano and Knox can also be restructured for small savings if needed. The only other big contracts (In this sense a big contract is a player making more than 5 million) on the roster are Josh, Diggs, Tre, Dawkins, Knox, Von, Milano, McGovern and T.Johnson. Josh, Diggs, Dawkins, Milano, and T.Johnson are all fairly young and should still be key productive pieces in 2024. McGovern is also young and should still be productive in 2024. Knox also might be overpaid but I think he should still be a productive piece of the offense. Tre is also still fairly young and if he has a bounce back 2023 will not be an albatross. Von is the only deal where the Bills may have to "eat" a bad cap number for a season before they can get fully out of it and even then Von may still be a productive piece. Will the cap be an issue at some point? Possibly, but the Bills have an owner willing to pay out the hard cash for bonuses and they don't have too many bad deals on the roster at the moment. If they can get Diggs, Von and Tre to be productive for 2-3 more seasons I think they should be fine. By 2025, they likely will be able to cut bait on almost any and all deals they want to. This isn't as tragic a situation as many make it out to be, but the draft esp the 2024 draft where the Bills will have some extra picks will be key to keeping the roster in contention.

Great signing Bills needed some pass rush help esp if Von is likely starting on the PUP list

The Saints start the season 100 million over the cap and somehow get by, in the NFL you can rob Peter to pay Paul for a long time. The Rams aren't the best example. Mainly because they not only went all in short-term cap-wise but also mortgaged their draft picks in acquiring their top-heavy roster. Von Miller, Jalen Ramsey, Stafford, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks and others were all acquired with premium draft picks they also made smaller moves to trade away mid-round and late-round picks. It just wasn't the cap that caused the Rams to be in a bad spot. Had the Rams had some cost-controlled talent from those picks they traded away they likely could have had some shot at fielding a better team long term.