McD strategy blunders

[Brand J]

I would’ve loved to see the reactions of those calling for a punt if it was blocked and returned for a TD. Methinks they’d be singing an entirely different tune. It’s the 36 yard line, guys, it’s FG or go for it. No coach is punting 20-25 yards there.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Brand J said:

I would’ve loved to see the reactions of those calling for a punt if it was blocked and returned for a TD. Methinks they’d be singing an entirely different tune. It’s the 36 yard line, guys, it’s FG or go for it. No coach is punting 20-25 yards there.

 

For what it's worth, OP is the only person I've seen post that they would rather have punted. There may be one or two others buried in this thread, but for the most part, even among us McD skeptics, we're in agreement that kicking the FG was the right choice.

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, JoshAllin said:

I thought if anything the wasted timeout might've costed them, I think the kicker ended up rushing that kick instead of using a to

 

Don't think so...looked like the ball just hooked slightly more than he expected...wondering if it caught a gust of wind like happens so often there with the swirling winds. Was headed towards the middle than hooked back the other way.

Edited 7 hours ago by Big Turk

[Tim Tindale]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Andy Reid has no fear of Sean McDermott at all, he went for it on a 4th and 17 and made the first down, how does that even happen? We've been stuffed on 4 and 2/ 4th and 3 and they made a 4th and 17. As poor as Mahomes played this game due to the pressure they were only a TD away from tying it up at the end. How many on here thought once Prater missed that FG, "oh no 22 seconds" ? I sure as heck did and there's a reason for that. For me though this game really didn't mean much, none of these regular season games do, seeding in the playoffs doesn't mean much either imo, we've lost at home and on the road in the playoffs so just get me to the playoffs and hopefully McDermott doesn't hold us back again this season that's all you can ask for.

Maybe Andy should - he’s lost 5 straight regular season games to McDermott.

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Tim Tindale said:

Maybe Andy should - he’s lost 5 straight regular season games to McDermott.

 

[Brand J]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

For what it's worth, OP is the only person I've seen post that they would rather have punted. There may be one or two others buried in this thread, but for the most part, even among us McD skeptics, we're in agreement that kicking the FG was the right choice.

Four including the OP. Guess it felt like many more 😅

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, Tim Tindale said:

Maybe Andy should - he’s lost 5 straight regular season games to McDermott.

Chiefs’ board is full of their fans saying Reid was out-coached on Sunday.  I thought McDermott had a very good day, including the decision to kick the FG, which had a better than 50/50 chance to end the game.

[That's No Moon]

2 hours ago, RochesterLifer said:

Someone doesn't know the meaning of "strategy." Those are tactical decisions.

[Ga boy]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Like it or not, it's McD's current legacy and will remain so until he wins a Super Bowl. If he never does, that will be the main thing he's remembered for.

 

Instead of lifting the curse, he just adds to the pile of Wide Right, 4 In a Row, Music City Miracle, etc

Add OJ

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

No and no. Not a McD “hater” here.. I recognize he brings a lot of positives to the team as a HC. But time after time his game strategy decisions are terrible, especially in the biggest games. In previous posts I have advocated for a strategy coach, an advisor who sits in the booth, away from the chaos of the sidelines, and is able, based primarily on solid analytics, to present options and recommendations. Take a look at the Bills sidelines during a game. McD clapping, totally engrossed in each play, now calling defenses etc etc. Like every NFL sideline - chaos. The WORST possible environment to make strategic decisions. Every NFL coach could use a strategy coach.BTW, Vrabel in New England employs one.

 

     And he is not getting better at this. Last year, year 7 as HC, he made what ESPN’s Mike Greenberg called “probably not the worst decision we will see this year, but certainly the dumbest” by throwing choosing to throw 3 times at games end from his own one yard line, which handed Houston a win. McD then went on the to make the WORST decision of the year, calling a timeout with less than a minute to go with the Bills at the Rams one yard line. Brady, who was calling the game, reacted immediately, calling out what a horrible decision that was, as it left the Bills no chance to win, other than recovering an onside kick. And of course McD has a history of bad decisions - 13 seconds etc etc

 

Sunday McD strikes again. A strategy coach would have strongly advised against kicking that last field goal. A punt, a punt angled out of bounds ( to prevent any possible return) was the correct strategic decision. It’s virtually impossible for a team drive the ball down the field, 80 + yards, in 22 seconds with zero timeouts. It’s even unlikely a team could even get in position to throw a Hail Mary under those circumstances. Recall the 13 seconds game KC had all three timeouts and only needed a FG. Instead McD blunders again, and Mahomes second last pass was way too close to tying that game. These games are won on the margins, especially playoff games, and his strategic blunders have cost the Bills playoff losses in the past, and I don’t see any improvement in this area.Hire a strategy coach, not to make the final decision but to present best options away from the chaos that is an NFL sideline 
 

 

It's fine if you think a punt would be the correct "strategic" decision.  However, Eric Wood, Steve Tasker, and other knowledgeable NFL people agree with McD's decision.  

So does math - depending on what probabilities you assign the variables.  For example, you might logic it out something like this:

 

~ Prater makes FG = 75%.  Win if made ≈ 98%.  Win if missed ≈ 40%.

~ Expected win if we kick = 0.81×0.98 + 0.19×0.40 = 87.0%.

~ Expected win if we punt ≈ 75.0%.  It's unlikely but the Chiefs could score on a long drive in the time remaining.  They'd already completed some long passes.  Also, it's not only FGs that go wrong, punts can go wrong too: botched snaps, blocks, shanks, returns.

 

~ 87% > 75%.  Kicking was probably the better option.

 

Note: In his career, Prater's made 81.1% of his 50+ attempts.  And he's made more 50+ FGs than anyone in NFL history. Trusting him on this was not irrational.  4 out of 5 times, he'll ice the game.  

 

Edited 6 hours ago by hondo in seattle

[HamptonBillsfan]

I respect the man that Sean is and an incredible leader and motivator. At some point the mind numbing decisions made at crucial game ending moments has to be factored in to his future coaching this talented team. Kicking that 50 yd FG with under 30 seconds left was the only way to keep KC in the game. The downside risk was so disproportionately greater than trying to go up 2 scores with a 50 yd FG that it showed  Sean learned nothing from the “13 second “ game.  Mahomes had 22 seconds from the 40 yd line. After watching the 4th and 17 debauchery Sean elected to throw the dice again.

[Augie]

1 minute ago, HamptonBillsfan said:

I respect the man that Sean is and an incredible leader and motivator. At some point the mind numbing decisions made at crucial game ending moments has to be factored in to his future coaching this talented team. Kicking that 50 yd FG with under 30 seconds left was the only way to keep KC in the game. The downside risk was so disproportionately greater than trying to go up 2 scores with a 50 yd FG that it showed  Sean learned nothing from the “13 second “ game.  Mahomes had 22 seconds from the 40 yd line. After watching the 4th and 17 debauchery Sean elected to throw the dice again.

 

Guess what……WE WON!!!  😂 

[TH3]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Andy Reid has no fear of Sean McDermott at all, he went for it on a 4th and 17 and made the first down, how does that even happen? We've been stuffed on 4 and 2/ 4th and 3 and they made a 4th and 17. As poor as Mahomes played this game due to the pressure they were only a TD away from tying it up at the end. How many on here thought once Prater missed that FG, "oh no 22 seconds" ? I sure as heck did and there's a reason for that. For me though this game really didn't mean much, none of these regular season games do, seeding in the playoffs doesn't mean much either imo, we've lost at home and on the road in the playoffs so just get me to the playoffs and hopefully McDermott doesn't hold us back again this season that's all you can ask for.

Andy Reid fearlessly brainstormed the worst day his Hall of Fame QB had in his career on Sunday

Edited 6 hours ago by TH3

[cba fan]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Andy Reid has no fear of Sean McDermott at all, he went for it on a 4th and 17 and made the first down, how does that even happen? We've been stuffed on 4 and 2/ 4th and 3 and they made a 4th and 17. As poor as Mahomes played this game due to the pressure they were only a TD away from tying it up at the end. How many on here thought once Prater missed that FG, "oh no 22 seconds" ? I sure as heck did and there's a reason for that. For me though this game really didn't mean much, none of these regular season games do, seeding in the playoffs doesn't mean much either imo, we've lost at home and on the road in the playoffs so just get me to the playoffs and hopefully McDermott doesn't hold us back again this season that's all you can ask for.

i agree on your playoffs take. ..... that's why this game was so important. Bills needed a "win" than for playoff positioning as Pats keep winning, more than needing to beat the Chiefs and knocking them back as through some goofy azz shiiit could end up in a wild card multi tiebreaker and miss playoffs altogether. need a cushion.

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Andy Reid fearlessly brainstormed the worst day his Hall of Fame QB had in his career on Sunday

 

But he has some rings, and some few people are infatuated with that. Guess what, if McD had a ring or two, they would still be complaining just the same, but they’d lose that handy arguing point they enjoy so much. That is as obvious as the sun coming up each morning. 

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

But he has some rings, and some few people are infatuated with that. Guess what, if McD had a ring or two, they would still be complaining just the same, but they’d lose that handy arguing point they enjoy so much. That is as obvious as the sun coming up each morning. 

 

Keep battling those windmills

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

McD's blunders from this game were timeouts. 

 

He had no reason to use a timeout before KC's field goal. The timeout before the 4th and 17 actively hurt us by giving KC more time to come up with a play.

 

 

[Simon]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

There may be one or two others buried in this thread, but for the most part, even among us McD skeptics, we're in agreement that kicking the FG was the right choice.

 

fwiw, I don't really think there was really a "wrong" decision in that situation.

They were less like #1, #2, #3 and more like 1a, 1b and 1c, imo.

[Wayne Cubed]

38 minutes ago, HamptonBillsfan said:

I respect the man that Sean is and an incredible leader and motivator. At some point the mind numbing decisions made at crucial game ending moments has to be factored in to his future coaching this talented team. Kicking that 50 yd FG with under 30 seconds left was the only way to keep KC in the game. The downside risk was so disproportionately greater than trying to go up 2 scores with a 50 yd FG that it showed  Sean learned nothing from the “13 second “ game.  Mahomes had 22 seconds from the 40 yd line. After watching the 4th and 17 debauchery Sean elected to throw the dice again.

 

I'm not sure this logic checks out. You are suggesting kicking a FG, leaves them in the game because it gives Mahomes the ball at the 40 with 22 seconds but punting the ball and giving Mahomes the ball at some hypothetical yard line, is... somehow different? And you use the 4th and 17 debauchery as an example, of them possibly being able to convert a TD. Wouldn't that apply to punting in giving them the ball? In both 'scenarios' you are giving Mahomes the ball... except with actually making the FG, there is no chance for the Chiefs to come back.

[ProcessTruster]

ah, it just wouldn't be a week in TBD-land without the obligatory "fire McD, etc, etc" thread.   

 

I'm headed to the golf course, you guys carry on with this... 

 

cheers