McD strategy blunders

[BuffaloBillyG]

Honestly if you're still complaining about 13 seconds in the year our Lord 2025, seek therapy 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

2 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

I get that but they needed this game.

 

100% it was a big win for sure and gave many on the defense the confidence they needed, Bosa was an absolute madman out there.

[DrDawkinstein]

Going to paste this from another thread because I think it's interesting and want to see what other people think...

 

One thing the morning show mentioned that wasnt factored as an option: Josh or Cook taking the snap and running straight back for 65 yards and take a safety. We did something similar in a high school game back when I was playing and it sealed a victory, but we were pinned back on our own 15-20yard line, so it was easy to get to the endzone. If Josh/Cook makes it, it probably kills 20 seconds of clock and then you punt to KC with 5-10 seconds left still needing a TD. But if they somehow get tackled at like the 5 or 10 yard line it becomes the worst call in NFL history. Still an interesting option.

[Ga boy]

19 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

 

Reid's multiple rings and track record make it a bit different discussion.

Dawkins, no question.  But we have the 2nd best winning %.  Not too shabby.  The 13 seconds game did cost us though, but we’ve could’ve done a lot worse than McD.

[Mikie2times]

31 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

And there are multiple variables and odds to consider.

 

Do you punt, which gives KC a 2% chance of a TD but gives you a 0% chance of winning.  You convert a punt 99% of the time

Do you FG, which gives you a 100% chance of winning but KC a 5% chance if you miss.  You make a FG in that range 75% of the time

Do you go for it, which gives you a 100% chance of winning, but KC a 5% chance if you miss, plus the chances of a fumble/INT being way higher.  You convert 45% of the 4th downs at that distance.

 

I go FG - it's the highest chance of a put away play with the lowest possible TD the other way rate, and KC's chances go up minimally with a miss (which is what happened).

I'm going to take a time out and think about this more

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Honestly if you're still complaining about 13 seconds in the year our Lord 2025, seek therapy 

 

Like it or not, it's McD's current legacy and will remain so until he wins a Super Bowl. If he never does, that will be the main thing he's remembered for.

 

Instead of lifting the curse, he just adds to the pile of Wide Right, 4 In a Row, Music City Miracle, etc

[Ga boy]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Going to paste this from another thread because I think it's interesting and want to see what other people think...

 

One thing the morning show mentioned that wasnt factored as an option: Josh or Cook taking the snap and running straight back for 65 yards and take a safety. We did something similar in a high school game back when I was playing and it sealed a victory, but we were pinned back on our own 15-20yard line, so it was easy to get to the endzone. If Josh/Cook makes it, it probably kills 20 seconds of clock and then you punt to KC with 5-10 seconds left still needing a TD. But if they somehow get tackled at like the 5 or 10 yard line it becomes the worst call in NFL history. Still an interesting option.

That’s risky business, but no one catches JC4.

[BuffaloBillyG]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Like it or not, it's McD's current legacy and will remain so until he wins a Super Bowl. If he never does, that will be the main thing he's remembered for.

 

Instead of lifting the curse, he just adds to the pile of Wide Right, 4 In a Row, Music City Miracle, etc

Like it or not, many of the actual players that played in the game have moved on. People that like to live in the past and wallow in failure are doomed to be unhappy by nature. 

[Steve Billieve]

I'm not reading all this, but I thought McDermott out coached his mentor in this one.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, BuffaloBillyG said:

Like it or not, many of the actual players that played in the game have moved on. People that like to live in the past and wallow in failure are doomed to be unhappy by nature. 

 

You just described 99% of Bills fans after what this franchise has done to us over the years.

[stuvian]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/the-man-who-calls-plays-for-100-college-football-teams/ar-AA1OETvJ

 

this guy is on retainer to many teams

[pennstate10]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed.

 

I get that analytics said the punt was the best move. But let's be real. It was a 99.9% win chance with a punt and 99.2% win chance with the FG attempt, so we arent talking much difference.

 

And as a McD game-decision critic, I would have absolutely bashed him for "playing not to lose" if he punted.

 

Go for the kick, and if you miss, then play tough defense to end the game. And by god, he rushed 4 on the first Hail Mary attempt, and 5 on the last attempt. So credit where it is due for not going back tot hat rush-3 and give them all day BS.

 

Can't knock the way he handled that.

 

(But ask me about the Defensive and ST Time Outs in another thread... )

Analytics (aka probability and statistics) is one piece of information. 
 

it tells you an average advantage gained by making a decision. The data base for these analytics is huge. Thousands or more plays. 
 

The key to making smart decisions is in the second snetence. The word average. 
 

I doubt the “analytics chart” incorporates all relevant variables. Such as kickers success rate at 53 yds. Likelihood of punt or FG being blocked. How well QB was playing at that point. 
 

Me, I probably would have gone for it. The biggest disaster at that point would have been a FG or punt block returned for a TD. Even if the likelihood of kick block was low, I’d want to take that risk off the table. 

[Dr. K]

1 hour ago, WIDE LEFT said:

No and no. Not a McD “hater” here.. I recognize he brings a lot of positives to the team as a HC. But time after time his game strategy decisions are terrible, especially in the biggest games. In previous posts I have advocated for a strategy coach, an advisor who sits in the booth, away from the chaos of the sidelines, and is able, based primarily on solid analytics, to present options and recommendations. Take a look at the Bills sidelines during a game. McD clapping, totally engrossed in each play, now calling defenses etc etc. Like every NFL sideline - chaos. The WORST possible environment to make strategic decisions. Every NFL coach could use a strategy coach.BTW, Vrabel in New England employs one.

 

     And he is not getting better at this. Last year, year 7 as HC, he made what ESPN’s Mike Greenberg called “probably not the worst decision we will see this year, but certainly the dumbest” by throwing choosing to throw 3 times at games end from his own one yard line, which handed Houston a win. McD then went on the to make the WORST decision of the year, calling a timeout with less than a minute to go with the Bills at the Rams one yard line. Brady, who was calling the game, reacted immediately, calling out what a horrible decision that was, as it left the Bills no chance to win, other than recovering an onside kick. And of course McD has a history of bad decisions - 13 seconds etc etc

 

Sunday McD strikes again. A strategy coach would have strongly advised against kicking that last field goal. A punt, a punt angled out of bounds ( to prevent any possible return) was the correct strategic decision. It’s virtually impossible for a team drive the ball down the field, 80 + yards, in 22 seconds with zero timeouts. It’s even unlikely a team could even get in position to throw a Hail Mary under those circumstances. Recall the 13 seconds game KC had all three timeouts and only needed a FG. Instead McD blunders again, and Mahomes second last pass was way too close to tying that game. These games are won on the margins, especially playoff games, and his strategic blunders have cost the Bills playoff losses in the past, and I don’t see any improvement in this area.Hire a strategy coach, not to make the final decision but to present best options away from the chaos that is an NFL sideline 
 

 

So you're excoriating McDermott for choosing to kick a field goal which would have ended the game and had less than a one percent difference in the predicted outcome than a perfectly executed punt would have done.  

 

Got it. 

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

WOW wrong on every point here. 13 seconds - the (valid) criticism by virtually every NFL coach was that the D was defending the sidelines on the Chiefs last drive; despite the fact that KC still had 3 timeouts. Terrible defensive call/decision.

You would fire McD if he took the ball out of Allen’s hands in that situation?  Go look at the home opener v Cardinals last year. Bills had the ball in the red zone with less than 2 minutes. Up by 3, they ran the ball three straight times and settles for a field goal. A 6 point lead almost led to defeat as a subsequent pass by AZ QB was tipped away at our  5 yard line. Two games later McD has us throwing three times from our own one yard line. I don’t recall u calling for McD to be fired for taking the ball out of Allen’s hands that time.

And a punt in the KC game guarantees a victory. U can’t go 80 yards in 22 seconds with no timeouts. It’s NEVER, in the history of the NFL, ever been done. It should be obvious that a field goal is never guaranteed, especially from that distance from a 41 year old kicker who had the luxury of kicking in Denver for much of his career

Every one talks about the off coverage.  Yes, Wallace should have had inside leverage.  No one talks about that just that the Bills defense was back.  
 

Running in the ball in the red-zone and running out the clock to play for overtime are not the same thing.  
 

Yes, no way Mahomes makes a 20-30 yard completion and gets 2 shots at the endzone.  Basically, exactly what happened anyways.  Slightly more difficult but not unreasonable for him.  Go for 4th or kick were the main options with draw back being similar to punt.  As someone posted analytically the win probabilities were all negligible.  

[strive_for_five_guy]

19 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Every one talks about the off coverage.  Yes, Wallace should have had inside leverage.  No one talks about that just that the Bills defense was back.  
 

Running in the ball in the red-zone and running out the clock to play for overtime are not the same thing.  
 

Yes, no way Mahomes makes a 20-30 yard completion and gets 2 shots at the endzone.  Basically, exactly what happened anyways.  Slightly more difficult but not unreasonable for him.  Go for 4th or kick were the main options with draw back being similar to punt.  As someone posted analytically the win probabilities were all negligible.  

And yet the Chiefs still had two shots at the end zone in the scenario where we missed the FG.

[Brand J]

NOBODY punts from the freaking 36 yard line, nor should they.

[Big Turk]

Please include that tremendous use of a TO at the end of the 1st half where he got his big personnel on the field that they otherwise would not have been able to do which stuffed the 1st down run, forced 2 incompletions and forced a KC FG from the 1 yard line then as well...

 

You gotta discuss the good too.

Edited 3 hours ago by Big Turk

[GoFlamesGo]

For an absolutely great game, the only real downsides were Hoecht getting injured and this decision (which is a much smaller deal than the injury).

 

Last year McD did absolutely blow the end of the LA Rams game, he fed right into what the other would want, a sneak from the goal line. Inexplicable.

 

The decision to not take delay of game and punt gave KC pretty much their only chance of tying the game outside of a punt block, which is probably comparable in likelihood to FG block. Punt also chews more clock than FG. There is almost no way to drive even close enough for a hail mary chance with under 20 seconds from the 20 or worse and no TO's. You would need a 20-30 yard completion and likely get OOB. Any 20-30 yard play that gets tackled in bounds is likely to take at least 10 seconds to get everyone lined back up for a spike (which also takes about 2 seconds). 

 

It wasn't quite as bad as the sneak vs the LA Rams last year, but it was still not good, and almost did actually cost them.

 

 

[Augie]

41 minutes ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Absolutely- but we are in the minority here.

 

This was in the ballpark of ‘13 Seconds’- absolutely. Should OUR FG Kicker make that kick and seal the game? Absolutely! But, the trade off is obvious if he misses!

 

McD, in the biggest moments, cannot figure out time v.s. distance single choices. Just like in 13 seconds, you kick the ball to REDUCE TIME LEFT! 
 

100%!
 

In that situation, while the Chiefs had 2 TOs, the time is reduced to about 9 seconds- 2 plays from the 30 yard line.

 

In this case, the Chiefs had ZERO TOs and Bills were up 7. Ergo, you Punt to do BOTH things- push them back 20 yards or more and take 5 seconds off the clock.

 

McD can NEVER be trusted to make the correct choice. 

 

Look at the bold at the end. Anyone who speaks in absolutes like that is someone to be ignored, at least most of the time. This is definitely one of those times. 

 

What if they return that punt for a TD? What would you say in that case? Never mind, I don’t care. 

[JoshAllin]

I thought if anything the wasted timeout might've costed them, I think the kicker ended up rushing that kick instead of using a to