Is Hawes in the process of surpassing Knox as TE2??

[Special K]

The Bills didn't run the 3 TE sets too much in the game, and it seemed to me there was a lot of Kincaid and Hawes in the 2 TE sets.

 

Hawes comp seems to be a Knox who can actually catch the ball when thrown to him.

 

If Hawes continues to develop above expectations, there is a high chance Knox will be a Cap Casualty in the Off-season...... let's enjoy the 3 TE sets while they last.....

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Special K said:

The Bills didn't run the 3 TE sets too much in the game, and it seemed to me there was a lot of Kincaid and Hawes in the 2 TE sets.

 

Hawes comp seems to be a Knox who can actually catch the ball when thrown to him.

 

If Hawes continues to develop above expectations, there is a high chance Knox will be a Cap Casualty in the Off-season...... let's enjoy the 3 TE sets while they last.....

Besides the fact that Dawson Knox is our most physical runner after the catch and is one of the more complete tight ends in the NFL

 

He is a yac threat and bodies defenders 

 

Hawes has shown plenty.. he hasn't shown the ability to punish a defender yet after he catches the ball

[Special K]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Besides the fact that Dawson Knox is our most physical runner after the catch and is one of the more complete tight ends in the NFL

 

He is a yac threat and bodies defenders 

 

Hawes has shown plenty.. he hasn't shown the ability to punish a defender yet after he catches the ball

You have to actually catch the ball on a consistent basis before you can "punish any defenders".

 

I think the plan when drafting Hawes was to eventually be a Knox replacement..... I just think Hawes play may make this happen sooner rather than later.

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, Special K said:

You have to actually catch the ball on a consistent basis before you can "punish any defenders".

 

I think the plan when drafting Hawes was to eventually be a Knox replacement..... I just think Hawes play may make this happen sooner rather than later.

Well yeah eventual replacement I don't think it's happening this year 

 

Hawes is perfect right now at the tight end three spot kind of like Gabe Davis when he was our three or four making good plays

 

Knox is absolutely a top 15-18 TE in the league... There's not 18 tight ends more complete than Knox realistically he's been a huge part of the running game the last couple years 

 

And still is a capable receiver.. he just doesn't get a lot of targets

Edited Tuesday at 02:56 AM by Buffalo716

[BillsFanForever19]

 

1 hour ago, Special K said:

The Bills didn't run the 3 TE sets too much in the game, and it seemed to me there was a lot of Kincaid and Hawes in the 2 TE sets.

 

Hawes comp seems to be a Knox who can actually catch the ball when thrown to him.

 

If Hawes continues to develop above expectations, there is a high chance Knox will be a Cap Casualty in the Off-season...... let's enjoy the 3 TE sets while they last.....

 

Jackson Hawes will not replace Dawson Knox. They play the same position in name only. Hawes is essentially a 6th Offensive Lineman who can occasionally leave the line of scrimmage and get open for a catch here or there (currently 1 a game). But he's not a route runner or separator and you don't want him to be doing Knox's job because you want his elite blocking utilized.

 

Hawes took more snaps than Knox did yesterday (31-24). So in that sense, he kind of already is TE2. But that's because we've been doing a lot more running and we're using him to block.

 

When the time comes for Knox to go, they aren't going to have Hawes running routes like Knox. His role will stay the same and they'll get another pass catcher in here.

 

You love to see Hawes make an occasional play here or there. But in no way should he not be doing what he's Elite at to be doing Knox's job. Knox is a Pass Catcher first and a Blocker second. Hawes is a Blocker first and a Pass Catcher second. And that shouldn't change.

Edited Tuesday at 04:31 AM by BillsFanForever19

[Sierra Foothills]

Tight end snap counts for week 4 (59 total offensive snaps):

 

Jackson Hawes 31   53%

Dawson Knox 24.  41%

Dalton Kincaid 22   37%

 

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

 

Jackson Hawes will not replace Dawson Knox. They play the same position in name only. Hawes is essentially a 6th Offensive Lineman who can occasionally leave the line of scrimmage and get open for a catch here or there (currently 1 a game). But he's not a route runner or separator and you don't want him to be doing Knox's job because you want his elite blocking utilized.

 

Knox seems unlikely to be on the team next year. He could take a big cut. Pennies on the dollar basically. One the most most overpaid players we have had in recent memory which isn't even insulting the guy. He has a top 5 cap hit next year. He has been among our higher cap hits for several years. That will end next season. He can either go ahead and accept what less than half his current deal or he can sign elsewhere and come back for 1/10th of his current deal in 2027. 

Edited Tuesday at 04:01 AM by Mikie2times

[BillsFanForever19]

33 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Knox seems unlikely to be on the team next year. He could take a big cut. Pennies on the dollar basically. One the most most overpaid players we have had in recent memory which isn't even insulting the guy. He has a top 5 cap hit next year. He has been among our higher cap hits for several years. That will end next season. He can either go ahead and accept what less than half his current deal or he can sign elsewhere and come back for 1/10th of his current deal in 2027. 

 

Totally agree. He essentially has to rip up his contract if he wants to be here next year or he simply won't be. 

 

But either way, Hawes role is Hawes role. When Knox leaves, they'll bring in another pass catching first Tight End to replace him. They aren't going to turn Hawes into a route runner first and negate the work he's doing in pass and run blocking.

Edited Tuesday at 04:34 AM by BillsFanForever19

[ticketssince61]

So far this year:

 

Knox    4 catches  / 39 yards /  0 TD -> $578,000 per catch

Hawes 4 catches  / 54 yards /  1 TD  ->   $70,000 per catch

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

12 hours ago, Special K said:

You have to actually catch the ball on a consistent basis before you can "punish any defenders".

 

I think the plan when drafting Hawes was to eventually be a Knox replacement..... I just think Hawes play may make this happen sooner rather than later.

It would not shock me in the slightest that this is Dawson's last season as a Bill. Hawes is an amazing blocker and has shown so far to be a very reliable pass catcher.  I'm not as caught up on the "angry run" yac.  Catch the damn ball and Hawes does that.

Edited Tuesday at 03:24 PM by LABILLBACKER

[GunnerBill]

Hawes outsnapped all other tight ends in this game with 31. Knox was second with 24. Kincaid 22. 

 

For the season Knox leads tight end snaps with 145, Kincaid 134, Hawes 108. 

 

Hawes has earned his snaps and Kincaid has shown some improvements as a blocker but Knox is still the guy that gives the Bills the most flexibility when he is on the field. He remains the most "two-way" of the tight ends. That's why he is continuing to get snaps. 

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It would not shock me in the slightest that this is Dawson's last season as a Bill. Hawes is an amazing blocker and has shown so far to be a very reliable pass catcher.  I'm not as caught up on angry run yac.  Catch the dawn ball and Hawes does that.

 

I shouldn't shock anyone. There is no way he plays on his 2026 number. So he is either cut before then or he renegotiates, extends and takes a pay cut. 

[machine gun kelly]

6 hours ago, Special K said:

The Bills didn't run the 3 TE sets too much in the game, and it seemed to me there was a lot of Kincaid and Hawes in the 2 TE sets.

 

Hawes comp seems to be a Knox who can actually catch the ball when thrown to him.

 

If Hawes continues to develop above expectations, there is a high chance Knox will be a Cap Casualty in the Off-season...... let's enjoy the 3 TE sets while they last.....

K, I don’t see the Bills moving on from Knox as McD really likes these heavy sets.  Based on the opponent, we may some games where there is a ton of 13 personnel, and 12.  We basically can bully some opponents.  Hawes is promising and cheap.  Knox may need to take a reduction in his contract after the year is over, but doesn’t necessarily mean they cut him.

 

Just one guy’s opinion.  I don’t know anything more than the rest of you.  I have learned quite a bit over the years listening avidly to Movin the Chains on Sirius.  In the off season they call it the R’s.  Reduce, Release, or Restructure. It’s basically what GM’s and Capologists do each off season.  Those guys, Pat Kirwan, a former coach and front office guy along with Jim Miller, a long running second string QB for several teams have really nice insights into how football people think.  I know Pat and Cower have written several books in “First Take Your Eyes off the Ball”, and teaches people who love football how to break down games, etc.

 

Ive read it and learned a lot.  I’m a guy who played and coached football and learn a lot from them.

[NI Bills Fan]

Yes i read Kirwan's 'Take your eyes off the ball' book... an excellent read, especially for someone like me who (living in Ireland) has never played the game, or been coached etc. It defintely helped me understand the game and get more out of watching it.

Edited Tuesday at 09:49 AM by NI Bills Fan

[SoMAn]

Knox is 'Mr. Brightside'. He's not going anywhere. Don't overlook the chemistry that Beane has built into this team. Knox is an entrenched 'Allen guy',  

They always carry 3 TEs anyway. No great need to make changes at that position quite yet.

When Kincaid is up for a contract in a couple of years that may change. They'll probably want to re-sign him. By that time Knox will be 30-ish, and still have some value on the trade market. 

I don't know how they manage their cap, but they may limit how much they want to allot to that position group. 

But, to answer the OP, I think Hawes could eventually be TE 1 or TE 2. We haven't seen enough targets to him yet to truly evaluate his value as a pass catcher/route runner.

Right now, Hawes is a great addition to a group of tenacious blockers helping James Cook to be a weekly threat. I'm good with that for now.

 

Edited Tuesday at 10:15 AM by SoMAn

[Einstein]

7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

 

Jackson Hawes will not replace Dawson Knox. They play the same position in name only. Hawes is essentially a 6th Offensive Lineman who can occasionally leave the line of scrimmage and get open for a catch here or there (currently 1 a game). But he's not a route runner or separator and you don't want him to be doing Knox's job because you want his elite blocking utilized.

 

Hawes took more snaps than Knox did yesterday (31-24). So in that sense, he kind of already is TE2. But that's because we've been doing a lot more running and we're using him to block.

 

When the time comes for Knox to go, they aren't going to have Hawes running routes like Knox. His role will stay the same and they'll get another pass catcher in here.

 

Way too early for you to make any of these claims in my opinion.

 

If anything I would be leaning toward the opposite of everything you said, but we will know more as the season progresses. Hawes has caught everything thrown at him and has out targeted Knox the last 2 games. 

 

Releasing Knox after June 1st would save the Bills approximately $7M in cap ($12M cap save - $5M dead cap). If I am Beane, that is… intriguing. Pre-June 1st cut would save $2M without amortization.

 

Edited Tuesday at 10:16 AM by Einstein

[thenorthremembers]

Hawes played the most snaps of any tight end on Sunday.  Id gather if you go to the season snaps he has outsnapped Knox.   

 

That said, I am not sure they even play the some position in the offense.   Yes they both play tight end but Hawes is a Y inline tight end and Knox is more of a hybrid F back.   Hard to say Hawes has surpassed Knox when they dont play the same position in the offense.

[BillsFanForever19]

42 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Way too early for you to make any of these claims in my opinion,

 

If anything I would be leaning toward the opposite of everything you said, but we will know more as the season progresses.

 

Releasing Knox after June 1st would save the Bills approximately $8M in cap ($12M cap save - $5M dead cap). If I am Beane, that is… intriguing.

 

I never said Knox would be here next season. In fact, if you go down 3 posts, you'll see that I said it's likely he won't be unless he pretty much rips up his contract by taking an insane pay cut on par with what we'd save for him being gone. 

 

What I'm saying is that Hawes will not be switching his role from an incredibly integral part of our Offense as a Blocker to becoming someone who's running routes all the time, like Knox. 

 

As I also said, he out snapped Knox in the last game. So in that sense he's already TE2. But their roles are vastly different. If you think they're going to start using him significantly less as a Blocker (where his skills are Elite and it's the role they Drafted him for) to be a route running pass catcher to replace Knox, based on the 1 time he catches a ball per game in all of the snaps he takes - i've got a bridge to sell you.

 

Hawes was brought in to replace and upgrade from Quintin Morris as the Blocking TE (and significantly so) on this team. When the time comes and Knox is moved on, they'll bring in his replacement in the passing game then.

Edited Tuesday at 10:56 AM by BillsFanForever19

[Livinginthepast]

Hawes caught a well executed old school screen pass from Allen on Sunday. For some unknown reason that is a play that we rarely do with Knox or Kincaid. If they were just going to use him for that once a game he is valuable!

Edited Tuesday at 06:01 PM by Livinginthepast

[RichRiderBills]

I just want to say Knox is a huge disappointment and one of the worst second contracts in Buffalo Bills history. 

 

 

One of Beane's worst calls. 

 

I like him, and it's cool he gels w Josh and the team.....but he's totally JAG and replaceable. 

8 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

Hawes caught a well executed old screen pass from Allen on Sunday. For some unknown reason that is play that we rarely do with Knox or Kincaid. If they were just going to use him for that once a game he is valuable!

 

Not sure about that. Seems we have always under Brady run variants of this to all TEs. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Hawes played the most snaps of any tight end on Sunday.  Id gather if you go to the season snaps he has outsnapped Knox.   

 

That said, I am not sure they even play the some position in the offense.   Yes they both play tight end but Hawes is a Y inline tight end and Knox is more of a hybrid F back.   Hard to say Hawes has surpassed Knox when they dont play the same position in the offense.

 

He hasn't. I posted them above. Knox leads Bills tight ends in snaps.

 

Positional splits for the year: 

Hawes - 90 of his 108 snaps have been inline, 16 in the slot and 2 split wide;

Knox - 96 of his 145 snaps have been inline, 29 in the slot, 17 split wide and 3 in the backfield;

Kincaid - 51 of his 134 snaps have been inline, 55 in the slot, 28 split wide;

 

That shows you how the three guys are used pretty differently. They use Kincaid primarily as a matchup weapon in the passing game, the use Knox as a versatile chess piece who can play in multiple packages and they use Hawes really as an inline blocking tight end who occasionally will chip then leak out. 

 

They are not really fighting one another for snaps. Their usage game by game is more about gameplan and personnel packages.