Game week thread - Pats at Bills SNF

[Nineforty]

I'm thinking this is one of those matchups where I want them to throw to set up the run. 

 

Come out throwing. I know it hasnt been our recent MO, but I think we do it here out of the gate.

 

9 of the first 10 plays are passing plays. That kinda day. 

[BillsVet]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

Maybe.  Where did this notion that Josh McDaniels is an unrelenting offensive genius come from?

As HC the offensive genius has a win record of 0.337

As OC of the St Louis Rams, 2-14 (1-9 with a QB that had gone 7-9 the previous year as a rookie).  Bradford looked like he simply couldn't play.  Next year under Schottenheimer, could play again.  Huh.

 

As OC of NE with a QB not named Brady, 17-19.  He had Mac Jones looking good, I will grant that.  

 

Meanwhile Bobby Babich coached the #11 defense in the NFL last year.

 

I'm not trying to say that the Bills are going to blow out the Pats.  They have their problems this year.  But to my eyes, the problems are more related to the Jimmies and the Joes than the Xs and the Os or the brain power advantage. 

 

For years, the Bills had the advantage of a safety duo that was mentally elite.  They read and reacted impeccably.  We don't have that now; we don't even have the mental level that we had last year with Hamlin and Rapp.  Maybe Bishop and Rapp will level up, maybe they won't.

 

I'm just trying to understand where this Bills fan perception of inexorable mental advantage is coming from.

 

Not sure if anyone on the board leans as much on metrics to assess the NFL as you.  Sure, it's safe to fixate on analytics and base your beliefs around that, but as @DrDawkinstein and @Coach Tuesday have noted, there's a human element in play here that metrics will never capture.  

 

Put yourself in Vrabel's shoes for a minute preparing this team for the game.  This is NE's and his first big test against one of the Conference's best teams.  Yeah, he'll want to, as those other 2 posters noted, make a statement.  Not saying they'll win, but I expect they'll be prepared and motivated.  Never doubt a person or people who are like that because they can surprise you.    

 

You can also throw out Babich's ranks in 2024 or what McDaniels did with Mac Jones (!) and in previous coaching stops.  Has absolutely zero relevancy to Week 5 of the NFL season in a primetime game.          

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Supposedly no one can run effectively against the NE defensive front.  We shall see.  buffalo’s offensive line is a huge strength and they better come to play and win this battle in the trenches.

 

That would be why CAR ran for 129 yds (4.6 ypc) against them?  They shut down the Raiders, Dolphins, and Steelers I'll give them that, but the Dolphins and Steelers haven't had much luck running on anyone.  The Raiders hadn't had much luck until they played Da Bears and would have won handily if Geno Smith wasn't throwing it to the wrong uniform.

[billsfan89]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

He's a 2nd year QB whose record was 3-9 last year.   

Historically, McDermott has taken hot young QB, shaken them upside down, and stolen their lunch money all while smiling and talking them up "show me a QB who's been playing better" before the game.

 

Now.  McD may not be able to do that this season, because the cast of players are different and there are indications of some confusion on our defense that needs to get ironed out fast.  But the presumption of coaching superiority being granted to Vrabel and McDaniel is mind-boggling to me.

We struggled with Tennessee under Vrabel because they had this wrecking ball named Derrick Henry.  McDermott's record vs Tenn under Vrabel is 3-2, with one of the losses being a blowout (the Tuesday game after the Tennessee Covid kerfluffle) and one of them being a close loss arguably decided by some execution issues (although one could blame McDermott for going for a win rather than a FG and overtime I guess).

I would expect a Vrabel coached team to be tough, disciplined, and have no quit in them.  McDaniel knows him some offense and given a cast who can execute what he designs, he's good.  I expect a tough game.

 

But reading some posters in this thread, they seem to believe that Vrabel and McDaniel are due for Coaching Canonization in a blaze of golden light, while McDermott and Babich are something you clean off your shoe soles after walking down a messy sidewalk.  

 

That's not what the record says.

 

This idea Vrabel has McD's number is not really accurate. The Titans were a bad matchup for the Bills not because they were masterfully coached (I would classify Vrable as an OK coach) but because they had two components that were a bad matchup for the Bills. Derrick Henry and a strong interior D-line. In the early Josh era 2020-2022 the Bills interior O-line was ok to mediocre and the Titans had Simmons and other good DT's that were among the better DT units in the league. 

 

And as you mentioned the Bills in that matchup were still 3-2 despite the mismatch. 

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, Nineforty said:

I'm thinking this is one of those matchups where I want them to throw to set up the run. 

 

Come out throwing. I know it hasnt been our recent MO, but I think we do it here out of the gate.

 

9 of the first 10 plays are passing plays. That kinda day. 

 

I think our MO has been being driven by what teams show us.  If NE plays man and we can beat their coverage, we'll throw.  We seem to be struggling against zone, whether by play design or receiver ability to read and react, unclear.  

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

This is going to be a closer game than a lot of fans in this thread and the Predict the Score thread think.

 

To me this is the hardest game to predict so far. I could see them beating us by a hair if everything goes right for them, but I could also see us winning by 20. The Pats are going to give us their best shot and I believe in Vrabel as a coach. But I also think we've had this game circled since before the season and they're going to get our best shot back. Our offense hasn't given any team their best shot since the 4th quarter of the Ravens game. We've been rolling out of bed and lazily moving the ball down the field, and only turning it on when absolutely necessary. We've called variations of like 5 different plays and kept the rest of the playbook under wraps. My hunch is that this week we empty the bag and I don't think the Pats have enough talent on defense to stop us at our best. So it comes down to can our defense finally fix its situational problems on 3rd downs and in the red zone? Pats have a poor run offense, we have a poor run defense. What happens when a highly movable object meets an easily stoppable force? That matchup of bad vs bad might decide the margin of victory in this game.

[zow2]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

That would be why CAR ran for 129 yds (4.6 ypc) against them?  They shut down the Raiders, Dolphins, and Steelers I'll give them that, but the Dolphins and Steelers haven't had much luck running on anyone.  The Raiders hadn't had much luck until they played Da Bears and would have won handily if Geno Smith wasn't throwing it to the wrong uniform.

 

Yeah i didn’t see that game. Thats why i said supposedly, because some NFL experts on TV were talking about it.  Could have been game situation, i dont know? Maybe Carolina broke off a few chunk runs when the game was in full control and NE was protecting against the bomb.

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

To me this is the hardest game to predict so far. I could see them beating us by a hair if everything goes right for them, but I could also see us winning by 20. The Pats are going to give us their best shot and I believe in Vrabel as a coach. But I also think we've had this game circled since before the season and they're going to get our best shot back. Our offense hasn't given any team their best shot since the 4th quarter of the Ravens game. We've been rolling out of bed and lazily moving the ball down the field, and only turning it on when absolutely necessary. We've called variations of like 5 different plays and kept the rest of the playbook under wraps. My hunch is that this week we empty the bag and I don't think the Pats have enough talent on defense to stop us at our best. So it comes down to can our defense finally fix its situational problems on 3rd downs and in the red zone? Pats have a poor run offense, we have a poor run defense. What happens when a highly movable object meets an easily stoppable force? That matchup of bad vs bad might decide the margin of victory in this game.

 

I think this is a fair analysis.  I see the offensive effort as more nuanced - I think there are defensive coverages we've perforated like swiss cheese, and defensive coverages we've struggled against.  I think we've given our best effort at times.

 

I also respect Vrabel as a coach, and I believe McDermott won't spare any effort to ensure the team is ready to play. 

[boyst]

22 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

100%.  He is better than Mac IMO, but hes a tier 3 QB in this league (maybe mid tier 2 in afc alone) -  serviceable/does some things well, but hes not winning you games by himself.  For example, hes not Jayden Daniels caliber.

 

I'd put ahead of him, in no particular order: Josh, Lamar, Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert in the Afc (5 qbs).  Hes "on par" with Stroud, Bo Nix, Tua, and Daniel Jones IMO.  He has a ceiling of Herbert, but hes close to that yet.

 

I could care less about stats - just watching him play in year 2.  And for all those saying hes comparable to Josh year 2, that's just nuts.  Josh was on entire different level, just was inconsistent/trying to do too much at times.

I'd hestitate on Stroud because he has shown better flashes and a grasp of the game in the past.

 

Jones and Nix are fair.

 

Tua can't be judged fairly. I think he's been destroyed in all ways possible and just hope he can leave football and live a good life. 

[Pokebball]

32 minutes ago, Nineforty said:

I'm thinking this is one of those matchups where I want them to throw to set up the run. 

 

Come out throwing. I know it hasnt been our recent MO, but I think we do it here out of the gate.

 

9 of the first 10 plays are passing plays. That kinda day. 

I think our offense is pretty darn good. They will be able to take whatever the NE defense gives them. If that's the passing game, they'll be passing.

[Nineforty]

Just now, Pokebball said:

I think our offense is pretty darn good. They will be able to take whatever the NE defense gives them. If that's the passing game, they'll be passing.

And that is my prediction. I think we will anticipate their plan to stop the run (or Allen will react in real time at the LOS) and it will be one of those first drives where you get the sense we are going to throw it a lot more than the previous games. 

[Einstein]

38 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

He's a 2nd year QB whose record was 3-9 last year.   

Historically, McDermott has taken hot young QB, shaken them upside down, and stolen their lunch money all while smiling and talking them up "show me a QB who's been playing better" before the game.

 

Maye is going to torch this defense.

 

We are going to need to win a shootout.

 

You’re right that McD has historically been able to beat young BAD QB’s. But even as a ROOKIE, Maye had over 290 yards and 2 TD’s against our defense. And he is better this year than last year.

 

We are going to get torched on 3rd down, over and over, and are going to need to win a shootout (30-27 type of deal).

[gordong]

37 minutes ago, Nineforty said:

I'm thinking this is one of those matchups where I want them to throw to set up the run. 

 

Come out throwing. I know it hasnt been our recent MO, but I think we do it here out of the gate.

 

9 of the first 10 plays are passing plays. That kinda day. 

TUA had 300 yard passing against NE...   we should be able to throw the ball. 

[bills742]

 

[Success]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Maye is going to torch this defense.

 

We are going to need to win a shootout.

 

You’re right that McD has historically been able to beat young BAD QB’s. But even as a ROOKIE, Maye had over 290 yards and 2 TD’s against our defense. And he is better this year than last year.

 

We are going to get torched on 3rd down, over and over, and are going to need to win a shootout (30-27 type of deal).

 

Has Maye "torched" anyone yet this year?

 

He's had some decent games, but that seems hyperbolic.  He's nowhere near Lamar or Mahomes or some of the other QB's we have to face.

 

[DaVinci]

I say the defense gets it together and Bills win easily.

[Beck Water]

11 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

Yeah i didn’t see that game. Thats why i said supposedly, because some NFL experts on TV were talking about it.  Could have been game situation, i dont know? Maybe Carolina broke off a few chunk runs when the game was in full control and NE was protecting against the bomb.

 

I didn't see it either.

Longest run was 22 yds.  Yardage split between 3 backs. 
They were running with some success from the starting drive, where they went right down the field for a TD.

 

I think they got away from the run more than they should have, but that's where watching the game would be needed. 

NE broke a ST TD, got great field position off a missed FG and a 30 yd return.  NE went into the half with a 28-6 lead.

[Magox]

 

Would sure love to have him back.   When Oliver is at his best he is the best defender on this team. 

[Nihilarian]

One note, if Vrabel were that good a head coach, he would still be working in his last job as HC in Tennessee. NVM that his GM screwed him by shipping out WR AJ Brown to the Eggels...although one skill player loss shouldn't make or break a team. After going 11-5 in 2020, 12-5 in 2021. His team went into the toilet 7-10, 6-11, in the next two seasons. His playoff teams bowed out after losing their first game. 

 

Vrable did have a future HC in Arthur Smith as his OC back then, as he has Josh McDaniels he has as his OC now. His DC has been a defensive line coach for many years in Tennessee before becoming the line coach/run game coordinator last season for the Lions. 

 

The Patsies are 2-2, having lost to the Raiders, Steelers while beating the Dolphins, Panthers. The Patriots have both offensive and defensive numbers, both 10th in points allowed, scored. 14th in yards, 16th in yards allowed. 

 

Buffalo is #2 overall on offense. 17th in points allowed, 11th in yards allowed. Plus, the Bills are getting some injured players back on defense and should improve on defense. Odds are Bills -7.5. And the game is in Buffalo in front of screaming Bills fans. I think they cover the spread in this one.

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, bills742 said:

 

 

Phillips is, unfortunately, made of glass these days.