Bills Defense, will it get better as season goes on

[Pete]

4 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Once Max comes back he will replace White. He has speed and likes to tackle.

Hoecht will be a nice addition too.

Ed Oliver... nuff said.

Our D is fine. we are 3-0.

Im pumped for the return of all 3 players, and they will help transform this defense into a very solid D.  Max has speed, but his tackling makes me nervous.  McD schemes rely on CBs that can come up and tackle.  Tackling was never Maxs strong suit in college

[North Buffalo]

11 hours ago, warrior9 said:

 

I think/ hope he's referring to Walker? 

That is who i meant sorry

[GunnerBill]

It is worth saying now that the entire league has played 3 games that the Bills are 9th in total defense (which is officially measured by yards). They are 20th in points given up and 23rd on 3rd down. I expect the soft schedule to help improve those rankings over the next few weeks, but at the same time I think it gives you a sense of what this defense's issue is:

 

They are vulnerable to long drives - they either get you off the field early or you can rumble right on down. 

[H2o]

I have full faith in the younger players getting better on the DL. Walker has shown flashes ready. I expect Sanders to get more acclimated in his role as time goes along.

 

Not sure what the PED guys will add.

 

I hope Hairston gets healthy and get some run on the outside, but I have my doubts with all the time he's missed. He's a rookie and he's been on the sidelines since August. I don't have much faith in McDermott putting him out there. 

 

We're running with 3 LB's this year more than I can remember in years past. I'll take it because we have been quite poor against the run previously. Still, it is a shift in philosophy a bit so I expect them to get better with their assignments as the year goes along. 

 

Health will be the key. The more these guys play together, the more things will begin to click. Still, we need our key players to be healthy when it matters. Oliver, Bosa, Bernard, Benford, Groot, Walker, we need the guys we are relying on. If that happens, as well as on the offensive side of the ball, I expect us to make another deep run in the Playoffs. 

[machine gun kelly]

17 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

I am obviously concerned... but after next week Bills get  at least one D lineman back from suspension... Carter is growing, Oliver may be back too... Will Harrison return soon... and will safeties improve, which imo is about communicating... linebacker situation seems steady if not spectacular.  Need to improve by end of the season though... Thoughts?

To me, we’ll beat the Aints in our sleep, so the IR guys will be eligible, and the suspended guys will be eligible after the bye.  The Panthers will be a tune up for Hoecht, and Ogunjobi.  I’m looking forward to seeing Hairston with that blazing speed get up to speed in the Cheats game.

 

So to the original question, we’ll see how the team comes together beginning with the Chiefs.  I’m optimistic barring more injuries.

[Puckman5]

16 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I will give you the optimistic and pessimistic case. 

 

Optimistic Case

 

The Bills currently are missing possibly 5 key players on defense in the early going. The PED Twins are still suspended, Mad Max the teams first round pick is currently hurt, and two key starters in Milano and Ed have week to week injuries. The defense has thus far been OK overall (gashed by the Ravens, shut down the Jets, and did OK against the Fins) will be adding more talent. You could also argue that the team is pacing its self defensively saving its best for the playoffs. The final component would be that you could also make an optimistic case is that the Bills if there are still defensive issues could add a piece at DT or safety if needed at the trade deadline. Not necessarily a major piece put if the Bills need a Rasul Douglas capable starter added I think that could happen. 

 

Pessimistic Case

 

McD just hasn't had much success against quality offenses esp in the playoffs. The Bills shut down a bad Jets offense and then got handled by the Ravens and very easily could have given up 24-28 against a depleted Fins team. The early returns are far from good. Yes there are reinforcements coming but some of these aren't that inspiring. A rookie CB who while drafted fairly high up is still an unknown and two veteran D-line players who while decent aren't game changers. Milano and Ed coming back should help but Milano is older and having an injury early isn't a good sign. Ed is very good and capable of being a game wrecker but not consistently. So while there's help coming how much is that help going to really make an impact. The defense needs a big time impact player not more solid starters. 

 

My case is that I lean more towards the optimistic side of things. I do think Hoecht and Mad Max will help a lot as will Milano and Ed. Larry O could too, certainly won't hurt to see what he has. I also think if they do need some help at DT or safety they can find an addition at the trade deadline that will help even if they aren't a high end impact starter. 

 

I think the defense is and will be much better than last season but there is concern as to how it can hold up against elite offense esp in the playoffs. 

This.   Has a chance to improve  when players come back, but there's been a trend of coming up small in big moments.  I think they've played reasonably well so far given the injuries and new faces.   

[nuklz2594]

Always comes to injuries.  H hoping to see our ped and injured players get it together.

2026 we need  mlb. 

[Ayjent]

I think having Shaq Thompson is a sneaky good pickup for this Defense, he knows it well and has thrived in it.  I don't think he will have anything but rotational/package use but it gives them a chance to play with 3 LBs more and spell Taron Johnson from time to time.  With Milano out, the D has to adjust and guys like Williams and Thompson have their strengths that Babich can utilize in different ways than what they would do with Milano in there.  I think Milano is still a good player, but he looked a little tentative and I can understand why with all of the injuries that have piled up.  I hope that they let him rest and get right for the latter half of the season, which I'm pretty sure that they will.  Rapp has been the weakest link in the Secondary, and people are too down on Benford who has played fine, but not elite.  Tre has been serviceable but rotating in Hairston for some snaps especially when the Bills elect to blitz will be interesting to see.  The front 7 has a lot of depth, but the front 4 need to be getting home more often.  The rookie DTs have been interesting - I'd say Sanders is more of the steady, invisible guy that is doing what they ask, but isn't really flashing, while Walker is flashing some impressive plays, but also more prone to having bad reps.  Walker has a really high ceiling IMO if he can become more consistent and limit the bad reps.  The secondary is more of a concern, and I'm not certain what to expect from Hairston - hopefully he has been really absorbing what he needs to do mentally while recovering and is ready to contribute when he does come back.

[Sierra Foothills]

18 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I think the defense is and will be much better than last season but there is concern as to how it can hold up against elite offense esp in the playoffs. 

 

18 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

I think there will be improvement.  I don't expect the defense to vault into the best in the league.

 

17 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

The Bills defense ranked 17th last year. In order for it to be "significant" improvement I would say that it would probably need to be pushing top 10 defense to hit that criteria. I don't think going from 17th to 14th is really that significant. I think you would have to hit 12-10 for it to be really considered significant improvement. I think that's likely going to happen for this defense. I think they will finish just inside or outside the top 10.

 

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

After 3 games the Bills are 9th in total defense (which is officially measured by yards). They are 20th in points given up and 23rd on 3rd down.

 

2 hours ago, H2o said:

We're running with 3 LB's this year more than I can remember in years past. I'll take it because we have been quite poor against the run previously. Still, it is a shift in philosophy a bit so I expect them to get better with their assignments as the year goes along. 

 

Health will be the key. The more these guys play together, the more things will begin to click. Still, we need our key players to be healthy when it matters. Oliver, Bosa, Bernard, Benford, Groot, Walker, we need the guys we are relying on. If that happens, as well as on the offensive side of the ball, I expect us to make another deep run in the Playoffs. 

 

The Bills have 2 new defensive coaches as well as an enormous amount of new players. In fact, no fewer than 10 new defensive players will receive substantial playing time this year, barring injury. Keep in mind too that the team is incorporating more 4-3 this year.

New coaches, new players, new schemes...

 

Here are the the defensive departures since last year and their 2024 total snap counts:

 

Rasul Douglas 996

Dawuane Smoot 386

Kaiir Elam 359

Austin Johnson 352

Von MIller 333

Baylon Spector 291

Casey Toohill 249

 

Quinton Jefferson 119

Edefuan Ulofoshio 64

Nicholas Morrow 44

Kareem Jackson 32

Kingsley Jonathan 7

Mike Edwards 7

 

Here are the new additions since last year:

 

Coaches:

Ryan Nielsen: Defensive Senior Assistant. He was the DC for the Falcons and the Jaguars. His focus is the defensive line.

Jason Rebrovich: Co-Defensive Line Coach.  He is working with Nielsen and incumbent D-line Coach Marcus West.

 

Veterans:

Joey Bosa DE: The 5-time Pro Bowler's play has exceeded expectations but there is a constant fear of injury with him.

Michael Hoecht DE: Versatile and athletic player will return in week 6. Upgrade over Epenesa, Toohill and Smoot.

Larry Ogunjobi DT: Solid veteran who will return in week 6. Is a clear and obvious upgrade over Austin Johnson, Quinton Jefferson and Dwayne Carter.

Tre-Davious White CB: Former elite player working back from torn ACL in 11/2021 and Achilles in 10/2023.

Snap counts in 2025: Week 1: 0 Week 2: 26 (55%) Week 3: 61 (100%).

Shaq Thompson LB: Former 1st round pick and solid starter. Played Big Nickel in Carolina. Is playing outside linebacker in Buffalo.

Snap counts in 2025: Week 1: 0 Week 2: 0 Week 3: 21 (34%)

 

Rookies:

Maxwell Hairston CB: 1st round pick. Elite athletic skills. Has not played in 2025 due to injury in July 2025.

TJ Sanders DL: 2nd round pick. 2025 snap counts: Week 1: 16 (31%) Week 2: 23 (49%) Week 3: 36 (59%)

Landon Jackson DE: 3rd round pick. 2025 snap counts: None

Deone Walker DT: 4th round pick. 2025 snap counts: Week 1: 13 (25%) Week 2: 22 (47%) Week 3: 19 (31%)

Jordan Hancock DB: 5th round pick. 2025 snap counts: None

Dorian Strong DB: 6th round pick. 2025 snap counts: Week 1: 51 (100%) Week 2: 21 (45%) Week 3: 0

 

Others:

Zion Logue DT: 2025 snap counts: Week 1: 0 Week 2: 16 (34%) Week 3: 25 (41%) 2024 total snap counts: 36 (25% in 2 games played)

 

Practice Squad:

Jordan Poyer S

Jordan Phillips DT

Dane Jackson CB

 

Takeaways:

• The Bills have no fewer than 10 new defensive players who will see substantial amounts of playing time, barring injury.
• The new veterans are clear and obvious upgrades over last year's veterans.
• Cole Bishop has played 159 snaps this year (26% of his total career snaps) after playing 463 snaps last year.
• The Bills invested 6 draft picks on defensive players. This is unprecedented in team history since the 7 round draft started in 1994.
• With the exception of Landon Jackson, all of the rookies have flashed (Hairston and Hancock in training camp/preseason).
• Deone Walker's week 3 snaps went down a bit due to the extra playing time earned by Zion Logue.
• Zion Logue has already played more snaps this year (41 to 36) than he did last year.

There's absolutely no doubt that the Bills defense will: 1) improve over the course of the season and 2) be better than last year. In fact they might already be better than last year.

 

The questions are: 1)  How much will they be improved? 2) Will it be enough to win a Super Bowl?

 

Edited September 23 by Sierra Foothills

[balln]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It is worth saying now that the entire league has played 3 games that the Bills are 9th in total defense (which is officially measured by yards). They are 20th in points given up and 23rd on 3rd down. I expect the soft schedule to help improve those rankings over the next few weeks, but at the same time I think it gives you a sense of what this defense's issue is:

 

They are vulnerable to long drives - they either get you off the field early or you can rumble right on down. 

It also tells you /me that they are a poor matchup D. When it’s 3rd down and the opposing team has to have it. They are able to focus on a weakness and the bills lose that 1 on 1 ( sometimes it’s getting Tre manned up w a speed wr, sometimes it’s exploiting the middle voided zones once they do these silly late delayed DB blitzes, or running wide / misdirection with speed vs AJE or over pursuing bosa

 

bills play ok to above average team d. It’s jsut hard to play exceptionally well team D every single play. Need some dudes to win one on one

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

 

 

We're running with 3 LB's this year more than I can remember in years past. I'll take it because we have been quite poor against the run previously. Still, it is a shift in philosophy a bit so I expect them to get better with their assignments as the year goes along. 

 

 

I think the % of 3 LB sets are a result of 

McDs overall approach of becoming much more multiple on both offense and defense.  He’s trying to adapt.   We ran predominantly 11 personnel in 2020-2022. Drafting Kincaid and playing more 12 was an emphasis that could keep defenses more off balance. If teams wanted to cover 2 she’ll us to death as they were in 20-22, then we could more easily take what the defense gave us in terms of running the ball and in the short passing game.  As a result, we saw more team play cover one and funnel passes to the boundaries.  We didn’t have the correct personnel to excel on the outside to start 2024.  Traded for cooper after drafting Keon to help out. Then signed man beater Palmer and the speedy Moore to replace the washed Cooper.  Teams have no reverted to playing more cover 2 vs us this season and Josh (and Brady) is taking what the D is giving us.  While I haven’t watched much all 22 this season, Joe Marino has stated that we are running deep routes, but teams aren’t giving us the looks to throw deep.  We’re averaging 34 ppg.  Can’t complain much about what we’ve been doing.  Having the ability to play the short and the deep game has been working for the most part.  
 

Pertaining to the defense and 3 LB sets- since McD took over- every team knew that we’d be running Taron out there 85-100%of the snaps and taking advantage of the lighter boxes was their choice.  Running the ball and short passing game/rac was their choice a lot of the time.  While getting off thr field on 3rd has been a major problem in 2 games so far, we’re still able to accomplish McD MO on D.  Limiting big plays and forcing teams to dunk and dunk down the field with hopes to get a turnover.  MO stays the same, but being more multiple in our sets forces teams to take different approaches at times.  We’re also blitzing a lot more this year (to my eye, no stats to back this up, so I could be wrong).  Bringing pressure from variable gaps has the ability to confuse offenses.  Disguise is key.  

 

 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I think the % of 3 LB sets are a result of 

McDs overall approach of becoming much more multiple on both offense and defense.  He’s trying to adapt.   We ran predominantly 11 personnel in 2020-2022. Drafting Kincaid and playing more 12 was an emphasis that could keep defenses more off balance. If teams wanted to cover 2 she’ll us to death as they were in 20-22, then we could more easily take what the defense gave us in terms of running the ball and in the short passing game.  As a result, we saw more team play cover one and funnel passes to the boundaries.  We didn’t have the correct personnel to excel on the outside to start 2024.  Traded for cooper after drafting Keon to help out. Then signed man beater Palmer and the speedy Moore to replace the washed Cooper.  Teams have no reverted to playing more cover 2 vs us this season and Josh (and Brady) is taking what the D is giving us.  While I haven’t watched much all 22 this season, Joe Marino has stated that we are running deep routes, but teams aren’t giving us the looks to throw deep.  We’re averaging 34 ppg.  Can’t complain much about what we’ve been doing.  Having the ability to play the short and the deep game has been working for the most part.  
 

Pertaining to the defense and 3 LB sets- since McD took over- every team knew that we’d be running Taron out there 85-100%of the snaps and taking advantage of the lighter boxes was their choice.  Running the ball and short passing game/rac was their choice a lot of the time.  While getting off thr field on 3rd has been a major problem in 2 games so far, we’re still able to accomplish McD MO on D.  Limiting big plays and forcing teams to dunk and dunk down the field with hopes to get a turnover.  MO stays the same, but being more multiple in our sets forces teams to take different approaches at times.  We’re also blitzing a lot more this year (to my eye, no stats to back this up, so I could be wrong).  Bringing pressure from variable gaps has the ability to confuse offenses.  Disguise is key.  

 

 

 

The NFL as a whole are running a lot more 2 TE sets. Teams are trying to beat the two high safety look by running two TE's to power up the run game but still offer a threat to keep the passing game threat. I think McD and many other coaching staffs are running more 3 LB sets to combat that look. 

[noacls17]

This is a defense that gets you beat in divisional round.....AGAIN!

[Dillenger4]

15 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's what I'd like to see happen but I really doubt it will. I think Tre is giving them exactly what they want from the CB2 - hit your landmarks and keep everything in front of you. He is giving up catches but no explosive plays which is what McDermott wants from that position. His limitations do become a problem when matched up against legit WRs, and we saw him totally wash himself out of the play on a CB blitz against Tua who is not exactly an athletic QB. So I would prefer to get the player with athletic upside out there ASAP and let him get his feet wet before the playoffs. But nothing this coaching staff has ever done makes you think Hairston is going to suddenly supplant Tre unless he gets injured.

I like your opinion - but I do disagree. I think Max plays as soon as he is game ready. The staff can't like what they see from Tre so far. Trust me, Max is an upgrade and the Bills will take that all day. He is our first round pick and would have been playing if not for his injury. McD was very, VERY optimistic about max during camp.

But... as you say, we will see. Go Bills.

13 hours ago, Pete said:

Im pumped for the return of all 3 players, and they will help transform this defense into a very solid D.  Max has speed, but his tackling makes me nervous.  McD schemes rely on CBs that can come up and tackle.  Tackling was never Maxs strong suit in college

Compared to Tre Whites tackling skills, Max is the upgrade. Time will tell.

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The NFL as a whole are running a lot more 2 TE sets. Teams are trying to beat the two high safety look by running two TE's to power up the run game but still offer a threat to keep the passing game threat. I think McD and many other coaching staffs are running more 3 LB sets to combat that look. 

Correct-  this is the 3rd year of us running lots of the 12 personnel.  We’re now running 13 personnel (and ran 6 OL more than any team the last 2 season).  Attacking the defenses certainly plays a big part in this.  Playing with several different looks forces teams to focus on several components during the practice week which gives them less time to prepare on others.  Disguise, confusion and being able to run and pass effectively out of each different formation is the focus of being multiple and not one dimensional (as we were once labeled).  Just as it is on defense, being able to stop the run and pass while showing different looks.  We hadn’t done much of that from 2020-2022 on offense and from 2020-2024 on defense.  McDermott and his staff have made it their motto to adapt.  

 

Next up, imo, is to be more aggressive in the box and force teams to try and make a play over the top.  To date, we give them everything underneath (including yac) and take away everything over the top and limit big plays (in which we are the best in the league due to this).  I think the drafting of Bishop and Hairston were steps to move in that direction- adding speed to the secondary- but only time will tell

18 minutes ago, noacls17 said:

This is a defense that gets you beat in divisional round.....AGAIN!

Yes- this week 3 defense, without Hairston, Hoecht, Ed, Larry and Milano could be that type of defense that loses to an offensive powerhouse in the divisional round if our offense doesn’t score 30+.  
 

thanks for letting us know….. AGAIN

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

They are 20th in points given up and 23rd on 3rd down.

 

3rd down defense is essentially the same as last year, 44.39% last year to 45.00% this year. But it's only that low because we held the Jets to 0 for 11. Against the Ravens and Dolphins combined it was 61.53%... So the biggest problem from last year appears to have gotten, shockingly, even worse. I know they have instituted some schematic changes to the defense and I worry that they only made those changes for the sake of change without a real plan in mind. This is by far the biggest concern moving forward and we probably won't get real clarity on if it's getting better until after the bye week.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I know Miami had a really high 3rd and 4th down conversion percentage but the bills D had 5 stops on 8 possessions.  You'd like to see a bend-but-don't break approach get a couple of RZ stops which could make the score something more like 31-13.  

 

• They allowed 200 total passing yards across 2 games in 5 days to division rivals.  One was a week after the jets looked competent against pittsburgh.  
• Yes the rush defense is ranked among the worst in the league.  But they also played 2 mobile QBs in the first 2 weeks (2 of the 3 QBs to ever to rush for 1000 yards in a season).   QBs are definitely more athletic than they used to be, but these are two of the ones who actively run read-option looks and do it well.  
• The dolphins have a very fast team with achane, hill, and waddle - there were 0 plays over 20 yards in the entire game.  To me that's a sign for what the bills schemed up in a game on a short week. 

 

They looked terrible against baltimore, but the last 2 weeks i think they've been fine.  Oliver, Milano, and Hairston all missing.  Tre and TJ have missed time and are banged up.  Couple of suspensions too.  None of those are season ending, and players can and will get healthier as the season gets along - so 7 players who either aren't playing or aren't playing at their best.  I'd expect the unit to improve as these guys get healthy and integrated.  

 

Baltimore played without madubuike and van noy last night - and it created a noticeable difference in their ability to pressure Goff, and stop the run.  They went right at his backup all game long.  

Edited September 23 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

3rd down defense is essentially the same as last year, 44.39% last year to 45.00% this year. But it's only that low because we held the Jets to 0 for 11. Against the Ravens and Dolphins combined it was 61.53%... So the biggest problem from last year appears to have gotten, shockingly, even worse. I know they have instituted some schematic changes to the defense and I worry that they only made those changes for the sake of change without a real plan in mind. This is by far the biggest concern moving forward and we probably won't get real clarity on if it's getting better until after the bye week.

 

I try not to take TOO much stock in early season trends, especially with a weird divisional thursday game among the first 3 games.  Clearly after week 1 they created a focus on preventing big plays, and the linebacker and safety play has been much improved.  

[WideNine]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

3rd down defense is essentially the same as last year, 44.39% last year to 45.00% this year. But it's only that low because we held the Jets to 0 for 11. Against the Ravens and Dolphins combined it was 61.53%... So the biggest problem from last year appears to have gotten, shockingly, even worse. I know they have instituted some schematic changes to the defense and I worry that they only made those changes for the sake of change without a real plan in mind. This is by far the biggest concern moving forward and we probably won't get real clarity on if it's getting better until after the bye week.

 

Agree...the main issues I have with our defense is 3rd down defense and allowing scores in the red zone.

 

It seems a good chunk of those conversions is their decision to keep Tre on an island against better receivers (Miami) and inexperience on the line staying gap sound on short yardage runs.

 

And we just don't match up very well against Baltimore, but we could match up better if we get defensive pieces back and they stay somewhat healthy down the stretch.

 

These are areas they could definitely address more with the player upgrades that are currently sidelined and better managing snap counts for Tre and our rookie DL additions down the road.

 

With the coaching additions nothing beats live game snaps and film to get guys on the same page. I expect execution to improve to.

 

Edited September 23 by WideNine

[GaryPinC]

21 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

As far as safety goes, I actually think Bishop has been better the last two games. Still has a ways to go, for sure. But he's been a bit better. Rapp is the one that concerns me. With everyone focused on how bad they thought Hamlin was and now Bishop, Rapp has kind of gotten a free pass and flown under the radar. But, he has not been good at all. He's a liability not only for the occasional wreck less hits in teammates he is famous for, but he's just not good enough in coverage. My prediction now by the end of the year (barring injuries) Bishop will grade out better than Rapp.

 

Not sure if Mad Max gets a starting job when he comes back unless there is injury ahead of him, but he will at minimum upgrade the CB3 slot until then. I do think if he gets pressed into start for a few games it will be hard to take that kind of athletic ability off the field. He could easily "Wally Pip" White.

 

Once Oliver comes back it's going to help out. Jones has been sneaky solid this year. I saw somewhere Groot has (yet another) lower leg injury. Story of his career. Through the first 3 games this year Bosa is having a Pro Bowl (if not All Pro) season. Add the PED guys to the mix and I think we are in good shape. 

 

Linebacker. We will see if Milano comes back. Even if he does, I'm not sold on him being the starter. Maybe keep him for specific down and distances. 

 

But even with all that, I don't see this defense being out in position to succeed week in and week out. The play calling on that side of the ball is too passive especially on third downs. Let me also say regarding Babich. I think he is an EXCELLENT coach. I just don't think he's a great play caller. It's one thing to know how to teach the X's and O's (and he seems like an excellent teacher) but it's an entirely other beast being the play caller. 

I agree about Bishop and Rapp, I suspect Hamlin did a better job of running the show than either of these guys and it helped Rapp's positioning and ability to play faster.

 

D-line will certainly get better and we need to stop having Bosa play like 80+% of snaps.  

 

I think at a minimum coaches need to do everything they can to get Hairston as at least a solid backup by the playoffs.  Pushing Hancock to see if he can replace Rapp would be great too.

 

Of equal importance to any of this will be our coaching staff coming up with new looks and pressures not on film and targeted to our specific opponents' weaknesses in the playoffs.  Thinking outside the box.