Dalton Kincaid/Keon Coleman.....over/under 119.5 combined receptions???

[dcinmuncie]

under. 

 

everyone eats, remember?

 

don't forget shakir is still here

samuel is healthy

palmer. moore

cook running the ball.

 

they spread the ball around a lot and i don't see 2 guys getting that much in this offense, TBH.

 

[Brandon]

Under.  

 

I expect Kincaid to bounce back from the knee injury and have a solid year,  but I'm not too optimistic about Coleman at all.  If he struggles again like he did in the second half of last year,  I think he could quickly fall to the bottom of the depth chart. 

[3rdand12]

Agree with many of the Posts here for the same reason.

The ball is going to be spread around plenty this year.

 

UNDER

 But Bills we be more productive overall by a length at the finish line !

 Go Bills

[BillsFooteball]

Under for this one. Likely closer to 100 

[TheWei44]

50 for Coleman and 55-60 for Kincaid (Knox will cannibalize his targets a bit, which might be a good thing).  The ball will be spread around.

[wppete]

Well over. They get 75+ each. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, TheWei44 said:

50 for Coleman and 55-60 for Kincaid (Knox will cannibalize his targets a bit, which might be a good thing).  The ball will be spread around.

Kincaid got 73 catches when healthy his rookie year and Knox was there as was massive target hog Diggs and Gabe Davis was getting his share too. I think 70+ is a reasonable possibility if Kincaid is healthy. For Keon I think if he’s healthy 50 is a reasonable projection.

 

i think if both guys are mostly healthy it’s over for me. But two players staying mostly healthy in a season isn’t a sure thing at all

[TheWei44]

4 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Kincaid got 73 catches when healthy his rookie year and Knox was there as was massive target hog Diggs and Gabe Davis was getting his share too. I think 70+ is a reasonable possibility if Kincaid is healthy. For Keon I think if he’s healthy 50 is a reasonable projection.

 

i think if both guys are mostly healthy it’s over for me. But two players staying mostly healthy in a season isn’t a sure thing at all

Good points and generally agree - There are also some new faces in the WR room this year whose targets/catches are difficult to predict.  We'll see. Can't wait.  Go Bills!

[HOUSE]

Healthy- over

Damaged- under 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Coleman got 29 catches in 13 games last season.

 

So doing the math 29/13=2.23 catches per game.

 

Rounding up to 2.5 catches per game and assuming he stays healthy for all 17 games that is 2.5 catches per game x 17 games = 42.5 or 43 catches on the season.

 

Kincaid only had 44 catches last season but let's round up to 50.

 

Both combined, Kincaid at 50 + Coleman at 43 only gives you 93 catches total between the 2.

 

So it will be under

Edited July 13 by JakeFrommStateFarm

[Mikie2times]

Kincaids frame isn’t large enough to support 70 catches.

[Thurman#1]

On 7/13/2025 at 2:37 AM, BuffaloBillyG said:

I'm going over as long as both are healthy.

 

I think Kincaid reminds people why we were excited to draft him and avenges a injury plague down year. He emerges as the teams leading receiver in catches with 85.

 

I think year two Keon if healthy flirts with 60-65. 

 

I think they fly past 119

 

 

Yeah, I'm with this. 

 

It's a big if, but if they stay healthy, over.

 

[Thurman#1]

On 7/13/2025 at 2:43 AM, billsfan89 said:

 

Keon only had 29 catches last year but did miss a few games. If he’s healthy and improving upon a decent but uneven rookie season I think 50 if healthy is a stable target but he has upside to hit 60+.

 

Both guys are young and not coming off serious injuries. If they can play 15 games a pop I think they hit it. I will take the over but very reluctantly

 

 

Just wanted to point out Coleman's pattern of usage last year.

 

As far as targets, in the first three games he had a total of seven. That's not unexpected, to start slow as a rookie. 

 

Then, after they got more comfortable with him, they were using him quite a bit, 29 targets in six games.

 

Then the injury, out for four games, no targets, obviously.

 

Then the last four games of the year, when he got 21 targets, almost half, ten, in the final game of the regular season.

 

To me, that shows four different periods of the season. And in the second period, when he had a bit of experience but was uninjured, I think they were using him the way they would like to.

 

Here is a more complete breakdown:

 

First three weeks (inexperienced):  106 snaps (62%), 7 targets, 5 catches, 71% catch percentage

 

Weeks 4 - 9 (hitting his stride):  281 snaps (73%), 29 targets, 17 catches, 59% catch percentage

 

Weeks 10 - 14 (including the bye):  Out, no stats

 

Weeks 15 - 18 (coming back from injury):  211 snaps (80%), specifically 63%, 66%, 90% and 97% in the four games respectively, 21 targets, specifically 2, 2, 7 and 10 in the four games respectively and 7 catches, specifically 1, 1, 3 and 2 respectively, a catch percentage of 33%.

 

So it wasn't just missing games that resulted in the low targets and low catches. Early they weren't giving him many targets. After he came back from injury, he wasn't getting anywhere near the same catch percentage.

 

Let's assume that they were using him the way they wanted to in weeks 4 - 9, and that healthy and with a few games of experience behind him he'd reached about his best catch percentage and could have maintained that. That's not anything you could take for granted but not unreasonable assumptions either.

 

So if you assume those same rates over the whole season, he'd have had 73% of snaps, 70 targets and 41 catches, as well as 830 yards and 4.9 TDs.

 

Assuming Keon has 41 catches next year, I think the two of them likely hit the over.

 

Edited July 14 by Thurman#1

[Prospector]

Shoot, that’s how many Kinkaid will have alone before the bye

[ddaryl]

I just do not see both of them grabbing 60 catches a piece in our system. The ball will be spread out. I expect both to improve on numbers but I'm taking the under on a combined 120 grabs

[uticaclub]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Just wanted to point out Coleman's pattern of usage last year.

 

As far as targets, in the first three games he had a total of seven. That's not unexpected, to start slow as a rookie. 

 

Then, after they got more comfortable with him, they were using him quite a bit, 29 targets in six games.

 

Then the injury, out for four games, no targets, obviously.

 

Then the last four games of the year, when he got 21 targets, almost half, ten, in the final game of the regular season.

 

To me, that shows four different periods of the season. And in the second period, when he had a bit of experience but was uninjured, I think they were using him the way they would like to.

 

Here is a more complete breakdown:

 

First three weeks (inexperienced):  106 snaps (62%), 7 targets, 5 catches, 71% catch percentage

 

Weeks 4 - 9 (hitting his stride):  281 snaps (73%), 29 targets, 17 catches, 59% catch percentage

 

Weeks 10 - 14 (including the bye):  Out, no stats

 

Weeks 15 - 18 (coming back from injury):  211 snaps (80%), specifically 63%, 66%, 90% and 97% in the four games respectively, 21 targets, specifically 2, 2, 7 and 10 in the four games respectively and 7 catches, specifically 1, 1, 3 and 2 respectively, a catch percentage of 33%.

 

So it wasn't just missing games that resulted in the low targets and low catches. Early they weren't giving him many targets. After he came back from injury, he wasn't getting anywhere near the same catch percentage.

 

Let's assume that they were using him the way they wanted to in weeks 4 - 9, and that healthy and with a few games of experience behind him he'd reached about his best catch percentage and could have maintained that. That's not anything you could take for granted but not unreasonable assumptions either.

 

So if you assume those same rates over the whole season, he'd have had 73% of snaps, 70 targets and 41 catches, as well as 830 yards and 4.9 TDs.

 

Assuming Keon has 41 catches next year, I think the two of them likely hit the over.

 

How do you get 79 catches from Kincaid using the same methodology?

Edited July 14 by uticaclub

[YattaOkasan]

22 hours ago, gjv said:

I would hope each would be in the 80 reception range, along with 3 other receivers.

So a new personal best for Josh?  Do you also think he has a personal best for targets too?  I dont see it happening with how much they run the ball.  Has there ever been a team with 5 players with 70+ receptions?  (quick look says no)

[Lost]

Under.   We have too many targets we're trying to juggle in this offense now.

[Walking Tall]

Over.

 

Kincaid will have 80. Coleman better be able to put up 40.

[reddogblitz]

Under.

 

They both have to show me they can consistently catch the football and make the big catch first.