BADOLBILZ Posted 5 hours ago Posted 5 hours ago 50 minutes ago, Einstein said: Lol. I know who Pierce is - I’ve had him on my fantasy team since he was a rookie, paying stupidly to keep him every year because I keep thinking he will finally do something (silly me). If you are happy with Pierce, and you would be happy with Coleman becoming a Pierce-like player, we diverge on what we expect out of borderline 1st round draft picks (and yes, I know Coleman was the first pick of the second round, too). Well I'll give you a fantasy football tip. If the QB sucks don't play any of his secondary receiving options. If they don't see the field well or sense pressure well they will just throw the ball up to WR1 and hope for the best. That's why Josh Gordon could put up one of the great receiving seasons of all time with Brian Hoyer and worse throwing him the ball. Or DeAndre Hopkins can be All Pro with Tom Savage at QB. Coleman has a different skill set than Pierce. More general athleticism, inside receiving ability and YAC skill. So he has an outside shot at being a real WR1. Pierce has a higher floor right now because he can simply run away from a lot of boundary CB's but clearly more of a specialist. I'd love for the Bills to have him. He's Gabe without the bad hands and with real speed. I see PFF had him ranked as the 33rd highest graded WR last year........that tracks. He's good. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago 29 minutes ago, FireChans said: I guess I misunderstood your quoted post. But anywho, here are the players who put up 500-600 yards in their rookie seasons since 2013. Robert Woods Aaron Dobson Allen Robinson Brandon Cooks Martavis Bryant Dorian Green Beckham Tyreek Robbie Anderson (Chosen) Chris Godwin Christian Kirk Antonio Callaway MVS Hollywood Brown Mecole Hardman Gabe Davis! Michael Pittman Elijah Moore Pierce Jahan Dotson Dontayvion Wicks Michael Wilson Demario Douglas Keon Coleman Bob Foster So there you have it. It’s a who’s who’s JAGfest. there’s a gazillion of NFL WR’s that can put up 500 yards when they are featured in an offense. Was anyone worried about Pop Douglas being the next DHop or Davante Adams in New England? I wasn’t. Stevie was a nice little wideout but he put up 3 inefficient as hell 1k yard seasons as the #1 option. SOMEONE has to catch the ball. JAGfest? Tyreek has been first team all pro 5 times. Godwin was an All Pro and 4 time 1,000+ yard receiver. Allen Robinson lead the NFL in receiving yards with 1400 one year and had another where he put up 102 rec 1250 yards Brandin Cooks has six 1,000 yard seasons.........for reference......no Buffalo Bill draftee has ever had more than 4. Robert Woods was a WR1 level producer for 3 straight seasons in LA before injuries reduced him at age 28. Pittman is a legit WR1 now with a 109 catch season on his ledger. So 1/4 of that still unnecessarily narrow statistical grouping have been legit NFL stars including All Pro's........and 3 more have put up 1,000 yard seasons. We all want our second round pick to become a HoF'er.......but if just the data suggests that he has a better than 1/3 chance of being a 1,000 yard receiver........and more like 50% if he stays off drugs, doesn't get seriously injured or have serious legal issues.........that's not a bad % for the 8th receiver taken in a draft. 1 Quote
FireChans Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: JAGfest? Tyreek has been first team all pro 5 times. Godwin was an All Pro and 4 time 1,000+ yard receiver. Allen Robinson lead the NFL in receiving yards with 1400 one year and had another where he put up 102 rec 1250 yards Brandin Cooks has six 1,000 yard seasons.........for reference......no Buffalo Bill draftee has ever had more than 4. Robert Woods was a WR1 level producer for 3 straight seasons in LA before injuries reduced him at age 28. Pittman is a legit WR1 now with a 109 catch season on his ledger. So 1/4 of that still unnecessarily narrow statistical grouping have been legit NFL stars including All Pro's........and 3 more have put up 1,000 yard seasons. We all want our second round pick to become a HoF'er.......but if just the data suggests that he has a better than 1/3 chance of being a 1,000 yard receiver........and more like 50% if he stays off drugs, doesn't get seriously injured or have serious legal issues.........that's not a bad % for the 8th receiver taken in a draft. Thanks for reminding me Tyreek and Godwin were very good lol. Here’s some reference for you. # of 1000 yard seasons for the teams that drafted them on that list Robinson - 1 Cooks - 2 Tyreek - 4 Godwin - 4 Woods - 0 Pittman - 2 So really that’s an average of just 2 seasons of 1000+ yards or more out of the best of the best of that list lol. So there’s a 66% chance he never touches 1000 yards once. And then if he’s an average of the BEST of those players, he’ll have 2 1000 yard seasons for the Bills. Ever. So then let’s look at second round WRs in general. to my eye, that % doesn’t look that much different for any random second round WR. So yeah, that 500 yard season is irrelevant. A 30-40% chance of hitting 1000 yards once is basically where he started. Quote
Billl Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago There’s really no reason to have a strong opinion on Coleman at this point. He looked like a nice player the first half of the season, then he stunk when he returned from injury. It’s impossible to say for certain what that means for the rest of his career in terms of overall success. There are a few things you can glean from his season, though. He’s clearly capable of making big plays, but unless he figures out how to create separation, he’s not going to be the guy you can count on when you need a play the way you could with Diggs or even Beasley. When you only get 4 targets a game and still have a catch rate of 50%, you’re much more of a complementary piece than a featured receiver. 1 1 Quote
Kirby Jackson Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Billl said: There’s really no reason to have a strong opinion on Coleman at this point. He looked like a nice player the first half of the season, then he stunk when he returned from injury. It’s impossible to say for certain what that means for the rest of his career in terms of overall success. There are a few things you can glean from his season, though. He’s clearly capable of making big plays, but unless he figures out how to create separation, he’s not going to be the guy you can count on when you need a play the way you could with Diggs or even Beasley. When you only get 4 targets a game and still have a catch rate of 50%, you’re much more of a complementary piece than a featured receiver. Really well said!! If you aren’t open, it’s hard to get volume. He might be a part time guy and a big play guy. Quote
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Yeah saying that "everyone" was down on Spencer Brown and then clarifying the reason.......that it's because they are just stupid......is the very definition of a shout down. There is no rationale other than de-humanizing the opinions you don't like. The same way slurs are used to totally discount opinions. A literal shout down. Now if I said that the value of your opinion on the temperature of the fan base regarding certain players is not of import because you couldn't make it professionally in WNY and had to move away..........that would also be a shout down. While I may think that reflects poorly on you or your intellect that is not my response to the subject. But you telling ME what Bills fans think when I literally interact with them all day in public 6-12 hours every day and not just on a message board heavily populated by out-of-towners is the literal equivalent of you claiming Bills fans can't have knowledge about the future outlook of players and only those around them can. Anyway I gotta' pull an Alphadawg here and give you a peace-out. This is the most discussion traffic I've ever seen one of your takes get and and I would just hope you can see why. ✌️ Wow, you must really be interested to see how much discussion my take has got here and compared it to others. And actually most of the discussion has been solely by you. Seems like I hit a nerve here with you accusing other posters of being clueless WRT player evaluations. For someone to be so upset about my take on this, I guess I hit too close to home. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted 1 hour ago Posted 1 hour ago (edited) 2 hours ago, FireChans said: Thanks for reminding me Tyreek and Godwin were very good lol. Here’s some reference for you. # of 1000 yard seasons for the teams that drafted them on that list Robinson - 1 Cooks - 2 Tyreek - 4 Godwin - 4 Woods - 0 Pittman - 2 So really that’s an average of just 2 seasons of 1000+ yards or more out of the best of the best of that list lol. So there’s a 66% chance he never touches 1000 yards once. And then if he’s an average of the BEST of those players, he’ll have 2 1000 yard seasons for the Bills. Ever. So then let’s look at second round WRs in general. to my eye, that % doesn’t look that much different for any random second round WR. So yeah, that 500 yard season is irrelevant. A 30-40% chance of hitting 1000 yards once is basically where he started. IF that data indicates that he still has the same % chance to hit AFTER his first season than before it..........then that is a positive.........not "irrelevant". There is a reason only about 50% of 1st round picks get their 5th year option picked up.........because all of the rest have essentially given every indication that they will not live up to their draft status by year 5. And some of those that are picked up are exercised because the feeling is that they will "hit" by year 5. So less than 50% may be seen as on pace to be where the team hoped or expected. So in context, Coleman still having the same chance to hit as when he was drafted is not off the pace. And yeah, don't be a JAGoff and make me explain to you that All Pro's, guys who've lead the league in receiving yardage or had six 1,000 yard seasons are not JAG's. Edited 1 hour ago by BADOLBILZ 1 Quote
FireChans Posted 1 hour ago Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: IF that data indicates that he still has the same % chance to hit AFTER his first season than before it..........then that is a positive.........not "irrelevant". There is a reason only about 50% of 1st round picks get their 5th year option picked up.........because all of the rest have essentially given every indication that they will not live up to their draft status by year 5. And some of those that are picked up are exercised because the feeling is that they will "hit" by year 5. So less than 50% may be seen as on pace to be where the team hoped or expected. So in context, Coleman still having the same chance to hit as when he was drafted is not off the pace. And yeah, don't be a JAGoff and make me explain to you that All Pro's, guys who've lead the league in receiving yardage or had six 1,000 yard seasons are not JAG's. The list of largely JAGs, busts and irrelevant players had a couple nice little outliers. It didn’t change the fact that the average or median player on that list is definitively JAG status. fair point on it being a positive that Keon hasn’t flamed out of the league already. Quote
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