Fred Warner resets the LB Market. $63 million, 3 year contract extension

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Do we have to do this every time? 
 

“Beane missed out on this guy, picked the wrong LB!” So did 32 other teams, included SF!!! Guy was a 3rd round pick. 
 

It’s exhausting

I think it was 31 teams as the Rams were in efff them picks mode with the Goff trade up the year before.  It can get exhausting though but when you haven't drafted an elite, proven player besides Allen fans lose patience.  Benford and Groot could become elite soon and some would argue that Benford already is.

5 hours ago, Mat68 said:

A guy signing at the time the largest contract for his position is not counted as a whiff or bust.  The Warner deal does make Benards deal look good.  Benard makes similar to Warner when he is playing his best.  

Bears kind of bet on traits too with that signing as him being only 24 who's only getting better was the pitch that Poles gave Bears fans.  It's not hindsight when pretty much everyone on here agreed it was a massive overpay even though many were worried that he couldn't effectively be replaced.  He definitely wasn't a whiff or a bust but if you trade up for a player in the first round that's not a primary position you expect him to be elite.  McBeane were hoping for their Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly in that round.  Luckily, the one they hit on (and then some) was the former or they might not have jobs right now.  

 

I disagree with Bernard at his best isn't close to Wagner who has been the golden standard imo for ILB's with his play over the last five seasons.  I think both contracts were appropriate.

Edited 12 hours ago by Doc Brown

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

I think it was 31 teams as the Rams were in efff them picks mode with the Goff trade up the year before.  It can get exhausting though but when you haven't drafted an elite, proven player besides Allen fans lose patience.  Benford and Groot could become elite soon and some would argue that Benford already is.

 

 

 

Taron Johnson is elite, and terrific. So yes he has drafted an elite proven player besides Allen.

 

Benford could indeed become elite soon. Same with Spencer Brown, really. And yeah, Benford is maybe arguable right now as well. 

 

With where they pick, that's a damn good record. Not the best in the league or anything, but damn good. 

 

If fans are losing patience, that's more on them.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

11 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Do we have to do this every time? 
 

“Beane missed out on this guy, picked the wrong LB!” So did 32 other teams, included SF!!! Guy was a 3rd round pick. 
 

It’s exhausting

Yeah except in this case it is fair criticism.  When you give up multiple picks to move up and draft a guy that is not nearly as good as two other players in the same draft class it is fair criticism. 

That said I thought Edmunds was going to be a superstar at the time.  Thought he was the next Brian Urlacher. Didn't like giving up multiple picks but thought the player was going to be great. 

BTW just cross out Edmunds and Warner and add Kincaid and LaPorta and its the same story. 

[Mr. WEO]

Cook's quote now just went to 25 million per....damn!

[balln]

12 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Warner has HoF instincts. Warner’s brain in Edmund’s body may have been the greatest ILB in NFL history. 

I don’t know about that. Edmund’s is too tall and thin base. He gets run over and run on too much for my liking. But as a roaming space occupying pass defender he was OK/good. He really didn’t show up against good teams - Mahommes and Kelce abused him 

[Ralonzo]

2 hours ago, balln said:

I don’t know about that. Edmund’s is too tall and thin base. He gets run over and run on too much for my liking. But as a roaming space occupying pass defender he was OK/good. He really didn’t show up against good teams - Mahommes and Kelce abused him 

 

Yeah Mahomes moved him around like you move a cat around with a laser pointer, and Kelce was usually wfo in the voided area.

[DrDawkinstein]

14 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Do we have to do this every time? 
 

“Beane missed out on this guy, picked the wrong LB!” So did 32 other teams, included SF!!! Guy was a 3rd round pick. 
 

It’s exhausting

 

Dont get me wrong, I love Beane. I have a "Big Baller Beane" shirt that is my lucky Tshirt and I wear it all the time.

 

It's just offseason discussion. I was more daydreaming about what it could have looked like with Warner and Milano on the field. Not trying to bash the Edmunds pick.

 

I wonder if that pick puts us over the top against KC in any of the playoff games? The challenges Beane would have had to keep everyone and get everyone paid? Who else would we have let walk in order to divert that money to Warner? Maybe Ed?

[Rigotz]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yep traded up for Allen and then Edmunds was the first of Beane's long string of, so far, failed Day 1 and 2 trade-ups.   

 

It is so ridiculous that after one of the best rookie seasons at Tight End ever, people are completely out on Dalton Kincaid in year 2.

 

Saying Edmund is a failed Day 1 pick is equally ridiculous. He signed a massive contract in the offseason and has experienced plenty of success in the NFL. He's a failure by Beane because we didn't sign him to that overpaid contract? No.

 

Here are some noteworthy Day 2 picks the last 4 years: O'Cyrus Torrence, Dorian Williams, James Cook, Terrel Bernard, Spencer Brown.

 

I don't know where this mentality started of criticizing Beane at every juncture, but he's a good GM. Be glad he's with the organization.

 

 

 

 

 

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Taron Johnson is elite, and terrific. So yes he has drafted an elite proven player besides Allen.

 

Benford could indeed become elite soon. Same with Spencer Brown, really. And yeah, Benford is maybe arguable right now as well. 

 

With where they pick, that's a damn good record. Not the best in the league or anything, but damn good. 

 

If fans are losing patience, that's more on them.

That's true and I for some reason thought he was in the '17 draft so Beane definitely gets an A+ for that one.  The coaching staff seems to be a lot better at developing day two or three DB's compared to other positions.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

11 hours ago, Brand J said:

That would be 3x First Team All-Pro Darius Leonard (who later went by Shaquille). Injuries did him in, but he was every bit as good as, if not better than Warner. We got the right Josh, but the wrong LB.

 

In the first couple of years it was Vander Esch too.  

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Rigotz said:

 

It is so ridiculous that after one of the best rookie seasons at Tight End ever, people are completely out on Dalton Kincaid in year 2.

 

Saying Edmund is a failed Day 1 pick is equally ridiculous. He signed a massive contract in the offseason and has experienced plenty of success in the NFL. He's a failure by Beane because we didn't sign him to that overpaid contract? No.

 

Here are some noteworthy Day 2 picks the last 4 years: O'Cyrus Torrence, Dorian Williams, James Cook, Terrel Bernard, Spencer Brown.

 

I don't know where this mentality started of criticizing Beane at every juncture, but he's a good GM. Be glad he's with the organization.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I dont agree with Badol's overall sentiment either, Beane has made plenty of good picks, even some he traded up for. But Edmunds was a failed pick.

 

For a 1st round pick that we traded up for, he never produced anything close to that level. It's a failed pick because he didnt deserve a 2nd contract and Beane let him walk. 

 

The fact the Bears were dumb enough to sign him to big money doesnt change that. As a matter of fact, most fans in Chicago will tell you they got screwed on that signing. Especially when they realize they let Roquan Smith walk just to replace him with Edmunds.

[Augie]

A linebacker on the west coast in the NFC gets a new deal, and it automatically turns into a referendum on Beane’s drafting.

 

How…..predictable!  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Yeah Mahomes moved him around like you move a cat around with a laser pointer, and Kelce was usually wfo in the voided area.

 

To me it's limitations in the defensive checks, and soft spots in the zones.  In quarters for example the boundary defender has a quarter of the field to defend, the safety has another quarter, the nickel has an underneath third, and MLB would have middle 3rd. 

 

In the scenario that Kelce was "abusing" edmunds - you might have a slot WR cutting across the front zones, which requires the nickel or will to pass that receiver to the mike who picks up the underneath receiver, the boundary receiver runs a post meaning boundary corner passes to safety and looks for underneath work on his quarter.  Kelce might fake the out into that quarter and then go in behind the NB/Will and find a window between the mike.  The safety has been cleared out, the corner has the sideline, and the linebackers are in conflict. 

 

Now add in the RPO element where you can just hand it off right away or attack that window.  Now add in a wrinkle of jet motion from the opposite sideline - that can make the window even larger by forcing the NB/Will to account for that motion off the LOS.  Or create mis-matches - Hardman covered by a LB, or Kelce covered by TJ.  Buffalo needs to be able to play more effetive man coverage in a lot of these scenarios, as well as do a better job disguising the coverages.  

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

To me it's limitations in the defensive checks, and soft spots in the zones.  In quarters for example the boundary defender has a quarter of the field to defend, the safety has another quarter, the nickel has an underneath third, and MLB would have middle 3rd. 

 

In the scenario that Kelce was "abusing" edmunds - you might have a slot WR cutting across the front zones, which requires the nickel or will to pass that receiver to the mike who picks up the underneath receiver, the boundary receiver runs a post meaning boundary corner passes to safety and looks for underneath work on his quarter.  Kelce might fake the out into that quarter and then go in behind the NB/Will and find a window between the mike.  The safety has been cleared out, the corner has the sideline, and the linebackers are in conflict. 

 

Now add in the RPO element where you can just hand it off right away or attack that window.  Now add in a wrinkle of jet motion from the opposite sideline - that can make the window even larger by forcing the NB/Will to account for that motion off the LOS.  Or create mis-matches - Hardman covered by a LB, or Kelce covered by TJ.  Buffalo needs to be able to play more effetive man coverage in a lot of these scenarios, as well as do a better job disguising the coverages.  

 

Maybe. But it was an immediate observable improvement when Bernard took over the position. Better instincts, more being in the right place at the right time, more picking the right hole to meet the runner...

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Maybe. But it was an immediate observable improvement when Bernard took over the position. Better instincts, more being in the right place at the right time, more picking the right hole to meet the runner...

 

Yeah, i think while he's smaller - he sheds better, blitzes better, and shoots better.  Edmunds was a bit better of a fit defender than shooting his gaps to make plays (Like he's blocked, but he's not "moved" like bernard might be), and i think from a sideline speed standpoint he was better equipped to limit edge gains.  Considering the quality of QB in the AFC though, I'd say the value you get in creating havoc, negative plays, and turnovers is more valuable than what Edmunds offered.  

Edited 1 hour ago by Bleeding Bills Blue

[Jauronimo]

20 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Moved up to draft Edmunds over him. Warner and Milano next to each other... What could have been...

At the end of this contract Warner will be 31 years old and washed up.  Meanwhile, Tremaine will basically still be a rookie.  What do you value more: fleeting excellence or eternal youth?

Edited 1 hour ago by Jauronimo

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

It is so ridiculous that after one of the best rookie seasons at Tight End ever, people are completely out on Dalton Kincaid in year 2.

 

Saying Edmund is a failed Day 1 pick is equally ridiculous. He signed a massive contract in the offseason and has experienced plenty of success in the NFL. He's a failure by Beane because we didn't sign him to that overpaid contract? No.

 

Here are some noteworthy Day 2 picks the last 4 years: O'Cyrus Torrence, Dorian Williams, James Cook, Terrel Bernard, Spencer Brown.

 

I don't know where this mentality started of criticizing Beane at every juncture, but he's a good GM. Be glad he's with the organization.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kincaid was thrown a lot of passes as a rookie but had very little impact.   You often see teams force playing time on rookies they expected a lot of.   But no receiver that begins at the LOS and had only a 9.2 yard per catch number nowadays, did anything remotely historic that season.    That was sort of like the regular season Kelce had last year that people said was terrible and called him washed up.   He has an age excuse.   Kincaid was 25.   That's PRIME age.   He was supposed to be plug and play and has turned into at least a 3 year project.   And the concept of a split-only TE like Kincaid really was as a rookie is fairly new so comparing his rookie season production to guys even 10 years ago is what is ridiculous.    It's like comparing passing yardage and TD/INT ratio to 30-40 years ago.   

 

Edmunds was a failed trade up.    He's an adequate first round pick but they also dealt a valuable second round pick to move up for him and he wasn't worth a second contract to the team.   If you aren't deemed market worthy and they don't have an OBVIOUS replacement for you(which was the case when Edmunds left)....... then you probably weren't worth a first and second round pick.   And we know why they didn't want to extend him.   He lacks the instincts for the position that the far lesser size/speed athlete Bernard has in abundance.  Yet Bernard got extended.   EARLY.    The Bills had Edmunds play out his 5 year deal and let a 24 year old veteran go for a reason.  They even ate a big $11M+ cap hit in his option year to avoid extending him.

 

As for noteworthy day 2 picks?   What's your point?   I never said he hasn't made some good day 2 picks.   You are just making up a rebuttal to an argument that wasn't made.  

 

My point is simple........his itchy trade-up finger on day 1 and 2 has not yielded results they couldn't have expected by sticking and picking.    I mean do you not think Fred Warner is better than Edmunds?   Is LaPorta not as good as Kincaid?   Metcalf/AJBrown/McLaurin all not better than frickin' Cody Ford?   These were all worthwhile options at the time that they could have had without trade ups.