McBean's Drafting vs. Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers (draft position/impact players?)

[folz]

This is actually an extension of a conversation from the "Beane elaborates on the process of picking Josh Allen" topic. But, I thought that I would start a new thread, so more people would weigh in (and because this will be a long post).

 

So, in the other topic, I mentioned that some posters will point out that Philly has drafted more impact players than the Bills. And I pointed out that that isn't surprising, considering most of those impact players came in the last four years when Philly picked significantly higher than the Bills in the draft. For reference again, here are the 1st and 2nd round picks the Eagles and the Bills have had in the first two rounds over the last 4 years. They had 4 picks higher than our best pick, so not surprising that Roseman has picked more impact players over that span, imo.

Philly picks: 9, 10, 13, 21, 30, 37, 51, 53

Bills picks: 23, 25, 30, 54, 59, 61. 63

 

I then linked an old post where I compared Beane's last 4-5 drafts with K.C.'s and Tampa Bay's drafts. Why K.C. and Tampa? Because those are the only two other teams to make the playoffs in each of the last 5 seasons (along with Buffalo). So, K.C. and Tampa are the only teams who have picked relatively close to where the Bills have picked over that same span (to have a fair comparison for Beane's drafts). Roscoe responded as follows:

 

On 5/11/2025 at 9:51 PM, RoscoeParrish said:

 

I’m fairly confident if you compared the Niners, Eagles and Chiefs drafts to our since 2017 you’d find a couple things:

 

#1 the average draft position isn’t THAT different

#2 all 3 teams have found more impact players than Buffalo

 

As interesting as it is to compare us to the Buccaneers, I don’t really consider them an obstacle to winning a Super Bowl. 

 

Well, I went through all of the drafts going back to 2017 (posted below). I can answer the average draft position question, but I'd love for people to weigh in on Roscoe's second question. Have all three teams found more impact players than the Bills in that span (and by how much)? Sometimes I think we as fans look at the Bills in a vaacum. We'll point out all of Beane's bad picks and knock him for it, but not actually compare it to the full body of work of other GMs. We just point out other GMs good picks and put them on a pedestal. We don't seem to knock other GMs (as much) for their bad picks or bad draft years. But, I'll leave it up to you guys. As Roscoe asked, here are the last 8 drafts for four of the more successful teams in the league over that span (the draft pick/number is in parentheses---and forgive me for any misspellings of player's names):

 

San Francisco:

2017: (3) Solomon Thomas DE, (31) Reuben Foster LB, (66) Ahkello Witherspoon CB, (104) C.J. Beathard DB, (121) Joe Williams RB, (146) George Kittle TE, (177) Trent Taylor WR, (198) D.J. Jones DT, (202) Pita Taumoepuna CB, (229) Adrien Culbert DB.

2018: (9) Mike McGlinchey T, (44) Dante Pettis WR, (70) Fred Warner LB, (95) Tarvarius Moore S, (128) Kentavius Street DT, (142) D.J. Reed CB, (184) Marcell Harris S, (240), Richie James WR, (223) Julian Taylor DT.

2019: (2) Nick Bosa DE, (36) Deebo Samuel WR, (67) Jalen Hurd WR, (110) Mitch Wishnowsky P, (148 Dre Greenlaw LB, (176) Kaden Smith TE, (183) Justin Skule T, (198) Tim Harris CB.

2020: (14) Javon Kinlaw DT, (25) Brandon Aiyuk WR, (153) Colton McKivitz T, (190) Charlie Woerner TE, (217) Juan Jennings WR.

2021: (3) Trey Lance QB, (48) Aaron Banks OL, (88) Trey Sermon RB, (102) Ambry Thomas DB, (155) Jaylon Moore T, (172) Deommodore Lenoir CB, (180) Talanoa Hufanga S, (194) Elijah Mitchell RB.

2022: (61) Drake Jackson LB, (93) Tyrion Davis-Prince RB, (105) Danny Gray WR, (134) Spencer Burford OL, (172) Samuel Womack CB, (189) Nick Zaken OL, (220) Kalia Davis DT, (221) Tariq Castro-Fields CB, (262) Brock Purdy QB.

2023: (87) Ji'Ayir Brown S, (99) Jake Moody K, (101) Cameron Latu TE, (155) Darrell Luter CB, Robert Beal LB, Dee Winters LB, (247) Brayden Willis TE, (253) Ronnie Bell WR, (255) Jalen Graham S.

2024: (31) Ricky Pearsall WR, (64) Renardo Green DB, (86) Dominick Puni OL, (124) Malik Mustapha DB, (129) Isaac Guerendo RB, (135) Jacob Cowing WR, (215) Jarrett Kingston OL, (251) Tatum Bethune LB.

 

Philadelphia:

2017: (14) Derek Barnett DE, (43) Sydney Jones CB, (99) Rasul Douglas CB, (118) Mack Hollins WR, (132) Donnel Pumphrey RB, (166) Shelton Gibson WR, (184) Nathan Gerry S, (214) Elijah Quails DT.

2018: (49) Dallas Goedert TE, (125) Avonte Maddox CB, (130) Josh Sweat DE, (206) Matt Pryor T, (233) Jordan Mailata T.

2019: (22) Andre Dillard T, (53) Miles Sanders RB, (57) J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WR, (138) Shareef Miller DE, (167) Clayton Thorson QB.

2020: (21) Jalen Reagor WR, (53) Jalen Hurts QB, (103) Davion Taylor LB, (127) K'Von Wallace S, (145) Jack Driscoll G, (168) John Hightower WR, (196) Shaun Bradley LB, (200) Quez Watkins WR, (210) Prince Tega Wanojho T, (233) Casey Tolhill DE.

2021: (10) Devonta Smith WR, (37) Landon Dickerson OL, (73) Milton Williams DL, (123) Zech McPherson DB, (150) Kenneth Gainwell RB, (187) Marlon Tuipulota DL, (191) Tarron Jackson DE, (224) Jacoby Stevens S, (234) Patrick Johnson DE.

2022: (13) Jordan Davis DT, (51) Cam Jurgens OL, (83) Nakobe Dean LB, (181) Kyron Johnson DE, (198) Grant Calcaterra TE.

2023: (9) Jalen Carter, (30) Nolan Smith LB, (65) Tyler Steen OL, Sydney Brown DB, (105) Kelee Ringo DB, (168) Tanner McKee QB, (249) Moro Ojomo DE.

2024: (22) Quinyon Mitchell CB, (40) Cooper Dejean DB, (94) Jalyx Hunt DE, (127) Will Shipley RB, (152) Ainias Smith WR, (155) Jeremiah Trotter, Jr. CB, (185) Johnny Wilson WR, (190) Dylan McMahon OL.

 

Kansas City:

2017: (10) Patrick Mahomes QB, (59) Tanoh Kpassagnon DE, (86) Kareem Hunt RB, (139) Jehu Clesson WR, (183) Ukeme Eligwe LB, (218) Leon McQuay RB.

2018: (46)Breeland Speaks DE, (75) Derrick Nnadi DT, (100) Dorian O'Daniel LB, (124) Armani Watts S, (196) Tremon Smith WR, (198) Khailil McKenzie DT.

2019: (56) Mecole Hardman, (63) Juan Thornhill S, (84) Halen Saunders DT, (201) Rashad Fenton CB, (214) Darwin Thompson RB, (216) Nick Allegretti OL.

2020: (32) Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB, (63) Willie Gay, Jr. LB, (96) Lucas Niang T, (138) L'Jarius Snead S, (177) Michael Danna DE, (237) Thakarius Keyes CB.

2021: (58) Nick Bolton LB, (6) Creed Humphrey OL, (144) Joshua Keindoh DE, (102) Noah Gray TE, (181) Cornell Powell WR, (226) Trey Smith OL.

2022: (21) Trent McDuffie CB, (30) George Karlaftis III DE, (54) Skyy Moore WR, (62) Bryan Cook S, (103) Leo Chenal LB, (135) Joshua Williams CB, (145) Darian Kinnard T, (243) Jaylen Watson DB, (251) Isiah Pacheco RB, (259) Nazah Johnson S.

2023: (31) Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE, (55) Rashee Rice WR, (92) Wanya Morris OL, (119) Chamarri Conner DB, (166) BJ Thompson DE, (194) Keondre Coburn DT, (250) Nic Jones  CB.

2024: (28) Xavier Worthy WR, (63) Kingsley Suamataia OL, (131) Jared Wiley TE, (133) Jaden Hicks DB, (211) Kamal Hadden DB, (248) C.J. Hanson OL.

 

Buffalo:

2017: (27) Tre White CB, (37) Zay Jones WR, (63) Dion Dawkins OL, (163) Matt Milano LB, (171) Nathan Peterman QB, (195) Tanner Vallejo LB.

2018: (7) Josh Allen QB, (16) Tremaine Edmunds LB, (96) Harrison Phillips DT, (121) Taron Johnson CB, (154) Siran Neal DB, (166) Wyatt Teller OL, (187) Ray Ray McCloud WR, (258) Austin Proehl WR.

2019: (9) Ed Oliver DT, (38) Cody Ford OL, (74) Devin Singletary RB, (96) Dwson Knox TE, (147) Vosean Joseph LB, (181) Jaquan Johnson CB, (225) Darryl Johnson DE, (228) Tommy Sweeney TE.

2020: (54) A.J. Epenesa DE, (86) Zack Moss RB, (128) Gabe Davis WR, (167) Jake Fromm QB, (188) Tyler Bass K, (207) Isaiah Hodgins WR, (239) Dane Jackson CB.

2021: (30) Greg Rousseau, (61) Boogie Basham DE, (93) Spencer Brown OL, (161) Tommy Doyle OL, (203) Marquez-Stevenson WR, (212) Damar Hamlin S, (213) Rachad Wildgoose CB, (236) Jack Anderson OL.

2022: (23) Kaiir Elam CB, (63) James Cook RB, (89) Terrell Bernard LB, (48) Khalil Shakir WR, (180) Matt Araiza P, (185) Christian Benford CB, (209) Luke Tenuta OL, (231) Baylon Spector LB.

2023: (25) Dalton Kincaid, (59) O'Cyrus Torrence OL, (91) Dorian Williams LB, (150) Justin Shorter WR, (230) Nick Broeker OL, (252) Alex Austin DB.

2024: (33) Keon Coleman WR, (60) Cole Bishop S, (95) DeWayne Carter DT, (128) Ray Davis RB, (141) Sedrick Van Pran-Granger OL, (160) Edefuan Ulofoshio LB, (168) Javon Solomon De, (204) Tylan Grable OL, (219) DaeQuan Hardy CB, (221) Travis Clayton OL.

 

 

2016-2024         Team Record      Number of Picks      Avg. Draft Number      Playoff Appearances      Conf Champ Appearances      SB Appearances     SB Wins

San Francisco         72-76                      66                            133.6                                 4                                            4                                           2                       0            

Philadelphia            90-57                      57                             121.9                                 7                                            3                                           3                        2      

Kansas City            112-36                      54                            126.9                                 8                                            7                                           5                        3                             

Buffalo*                   93-54                      61                             134.3                                 7                                            2                                           0                        0  

*Obviously McBeane were not here in 2016, when the Bills went 7-9, which is included in the overall record above. But I kept that in because it affected our 2017 draft position.           

 

So, over McBeane's tenure, Philly (and KC) have still picked higher than both Buffalo and San Fran on average (obviously, some of that were trades, etc. as Philly had a similar overall record to the Bills and KC had a better record). But, the biggest thing that jumps out to me from that table is Kansas City's record---112 wins, 7 Conference Championship games. People like to knock the Bills for not making the Super Bowl yet, and praise Philadelphia. But, hasn't the Eagles (and Niners) path to the Super Bowl from the NFC been quite a bit easier than Buffalo's, without Kansas City being in their way? I mean Roscoe named San Fran as the other biggest NFC contender over that span and despite two Super Bowl appearances, they don't even have an above .500 record over that stretch. 

 

But, let me know what you guys think in regards to drafting impact players, or comparing Beane's drafts overall to the other three teams (if you actually took the time to read this very long post. 😬🙂). Obviously, each GM has their misses (even in the first two rounds). Interesting to note, all four teams got a franchise QB over that stretch. And I honestly think (may be my Bills bias), you could argue that Buffalo was either first or second in at least three of those eight drafts (despite a couple of clunker years from Beane---but the other GMs had some clunkers too).

 

Go Bills!

Edited 7 hours ago by folz

[NORWOODS FOOT]

Thanks for the in-depth. I sound like a broken record, but McBeane is good, not great. It’s that last 5% that they just can’t quite seem to pull off that a very few other teams are able to do to get over the hump. Who knows. Maybe they’ll improve. Or maybe we get lucky one of these years. It’s a game of inches (*cough*Andvegashollywoodbs*cough*)

 

Maybe we could get Dalton Kincaid to be be in a love triangle with Beyoncé and Jay Z… have them to the games and stuff… LOL

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by NORWOODS FOOT

[JohnNord]

The whole Beane vs. Brett Veach was a topic on “It’s Always Gameday in Buffalo.”  Sal felt that Beane drafting was just as good as Veach with some hits and a few Day 1 and Day 2 misses.  Bove seemed to think that Veach was better based on the fact he selected 3 All Pro players (Humphrey, Sneed, McDuffie) whereas Beane has 0 currently.  I would tend to agree with the latter.  
 

 

[RoscoeParrish]

Awesome post @folz

 

To state the conclusion in the reverse fashion, I would say yes.

 

I think there is a lot of hair splitting when it comes to “impact player.” 
 

But let’s lump instead of split. I will compare the “impact” Niners players to the Bills as we basically have had identical draft position since 2017. And my criteria will be “better than the league average at X position.” That will make a Christian Benford equal to a Hufunga, despite one being an all-pro and the other being just “very very good.” Players in the Hamlin or replacement level tier will be excluded. And due to injuries/careers ending, I will be considering the players at what their peaks were, as long as those peaks imo encapsulated them as a player. (ie Tre and Deebo both qualify as both were generally high level players for the majority of their careers, whereas guys like Devin Singletary who were starters but have generally bounced around the league do not).

 

Niners:

Kittle

McGlinchey

Fred Warner

DJ Reed

N Bosa

Deebo

Greenlaw

Aiyuk

Lenoir 

Hufunga

Purdy

Banks
 

Bills:

Tre

Dawkins

Milano

Allen

Taron Johnson

Teller

Ed

Brown

Gabe

Rousseau

Cook

Bernard

Benford

OCT

 

Numerically, very close.

 

Talent-wise? Not sure.

 

Allen>Purdy obviously, and probably outweighs the differences between the two lists.

 

But I think objectively, sans QB, list #1 is superior to list #2. Buffalo has the edge(no pun intended) at CB and OT. The Niners have the edge at pass rush, pass catchers, LB’s and safeties.

 

My rule is how many of X players would it take to get Y. Could you trade Ed and Rousseau for Nick Bosa? I don’t think so. Could you trade McGlinchey and Banks for Dawkins and Brown? Also no.

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by RoscoeParrish

[H2o]

Nice breakdown. 

 

Beane/McDermott, though we get frustrated and talk a lot of crap at times, when you stack them up against the other top end teams in the league, we look just as good. I really believe this year's draft is the one that is going to put us over the top. I really loved this draft class. 

[LEBills]

3 hours ago, folz said:

This is actually an extension of a conversation from the "Beane elaborates on the process of picking Josh Allen" topic. But, I thought that I would start a new thread, so more people would weigh in (and because this will be a long post).

 

So, in the other topic, I mentioned that some posters will point out that Philly has drafted more impact players than the Bills. And I pointed out that that isn't surprising, considering most of those impact players came in the last four years when Philly picked significantly higher than the Bills in the draft. For reference again, here are the 1st and 2nd round picks the Eagles and the Bills have had in the first two rounds over the last 4 years. They had 4 picks higher than our best pick, so not surprising that Roseman has picked more impact players over that span, imo.

Philly picks: 9, 10, 13, 21, 30, 37, 51, 53

Bills picks: 23, 25, 30, 54, 59, 61. 63

 

I then linked an old post where I compared Beane's last 4-5 drafts with K.C.'s and Tampa Bay's drafts. Why K.C. and Tampa? Because those are the only two other teams to make the playoffs in each of the last 5 seasons (along with Buffalo). So, K.C. and Tampa are the only teams who have picked relatively close to where the Bills have picked over that same span (to have a fair comparison for Beane's drafts). Roscoe responded as follows:

 

 

Well, I went through all of the drafts going back to 2017 (posted below). I can answer the average draft position question, but I'd love for people to weigh in on Roscoe's second question. Have all three teams found more impact players than the Bills in that span (and by how much)? Sometimes I think we as fans look at the Bills in a vaacum. We'll point out all of Beane's bad picks and knock him for it, but not actually compare it to the full body of work of other GMs. We just point out other GMs good picks and put them on a pedestal. We don't seem to knock other GMs (as much) for their bad picks or bad draft years. But, I'll leave it up to you guys. As Roscoe asked, here are the last 8 drafts for four of the more successful teams in the league over that span (the draft pick/number is in parentheses---and forgive me for any misspellings of player's names):

 

San Francisco:

2017: (3) Solomon Thomas DE, (31) Reuben Foster LB, (66) Ahkello Witherspoon CB, (104) C.J. Beathard DB, (121) Joe Williams RB, (146) George Kittle TE, (177) Trent Taylor WR, (198) D.J. Jones DT, (202) Pita Taumoepuna CB, (229) Adrien Culbert DB.

2018: (9) Mike McGlinchey T, (44) Dante Pettis WR, (70) Fred Warner LB, (95) Tarvarius Moore S, (128) Kentavius Street DT, (142) D.J. Reed CB, (184) Marcell Harris S, (240), Richie James WR, (223) Julian Taylor DT.

2019: (2) Nick Bosa DE, (36) Deebo Samuel WR, (67) Jalen Hurd WR, (110) Mitch Wishnowsky P, (148 Dre Greenlaw LB, (176) Kaden Smith TE, (183) Justin Skule T, (198) Tim Harris CB.

2020: (14) Javon Kinlaw DT, (25) Brandon Aiyuk WR, (153) Colton McKivitz T, (190) Charlie Woerner TE, (217) Juan Jennings WR.

2021: (3) Trey Lance QB, (48) Aaron Banks OL, (88) Trey Sermon RB, (102) Ambry Thomas DB, (155) Jaylon Moore T, (172) Deommodore Lenoir CB, (180) Talanoa Hufanga S, (194) Elijah Mitchell RB.

2022: (61) Drake Jackson LB, (93) Tyrion Davis-Prince RB, (105) Danny Gray WR, (134) Spencer Burford OL, (172) Samuel Womack CB, (189) Nick Zaken OL, (220) Kalia Davis DT, (221) Tariq Castro-Fields CB, (262) Brock Purdy QB.

2023: (87) Ji'Ayir Brown S, (99) Jake Moody K, (101) Cameron Latu TE, (155) Darrell Luter CB, Robert Beal LB, Dee Winters LB, (247) Brayden Willis TE, (253) Ronnie Bell WR, (255) Jalen Graham S.

2024: (31) Ricky Pearsall WR, (64) Renardo Green DB, (86) Dominick Puni OL, (124) Malik Mustapha DB, (129) Isaac Guerendo RB, (135) Jacob Cowing WR, (215) Jarrett Kingston OL, (251) Tatum Bethune LB.

 

Philadelphia:

2017: (14) Derek Barnett DE, (43) Sydney Jones CB, (99) Rasul Douglas CB, (118) Mack Hollins WR, (132) Donnel Pumphrey RB, (166) Shelton Gibson WR, (184) Nathan Gerry S, (214) Elijah Quails DT.

2018: (49) Dallas Goedert TE, (125) Avonte Maddox CB, (130) Josh Sweat DE, (206) Matt Pryor T, (233) Jordan Mailata T.

2019: (22) Andre Dillard T, (53) Miles Sanders RB, (57) J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WR, (138) Shareef Miller DE, (167) Clayton Thorson QB.

2020: (21) Jalen Reagor WR, (53) Jalen Hurts QB, (103) Davion Taylor LB, (127) K'Von Wallace S, (145) Jack Driscoll G, (168) John Hightower WR, (196) Shaun Bradley LB, (200) Quez Watkins WR, (210) Prince Tega Wanojho T, (233) Casey Tolhill DE.

2021: (10) Devonta Smith WR, (37) Landon Dickerson OL, (73) Milton Williams DL, (123) Zech McPherson DB, (150) Kenneth Gainwell RB, (187) Marlon Tuipulota DL, (191) Tarron Jackson DE, (224) Jacoby Stevens S, (234) Patrick Johnson DE.

2022: (13) Jordan Davis DT, (51) Cam Jurgens OL, (83) Nakobe Dean LB, (181) Kyron Johnson DE, (198) Grant Calcaterra TE.

2023: (9) Jalen Carter, (30) Nolan Smith LB, (65) Tyler Steen OL, Sydney Brown DB, (105) Kelee Ringo DB, (168) Tanner McKee QB, (249) Moro Ojomo DE.

2024: (22) Quinyon Mitchell CB, (40) Cooper Dejean DB, (94) Jalyx Hunt DE, (127) Will Shipley RB, (152) Ainias Smith WR, (155) Jeremiah Trotter, Jr. CB, (185) Johnny Wilson WR, (190) Dylan McMahon OL.

 

Kansas City:

2017: (10) Patrick Mahomes QB, (59) Tanoh Kpassagnon DE, (86) Kareem Hunt RB, (139) Jehu Clesson WR, (183) Ukeme Eligwe LB, (218) Leon McQuay RB.

2018: (46)Breeland Speaks DE, (75) Derrick Nnadi DT, (100) Dorian O'Daniel LB, (124) Armani Watts S, (196) Tremon Smith WR, (198) Khailil McKenzie DT.

2019: (56) Mecole Hardman, (63) Juan Thornhill S, (84) Halen Saunders DT, (201) Rashad Fenton CB, (214) Darwin Thompson RB, (216) Nick Allegretti OL.

2020: (32) Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB, (63) Willie Gay, Jr. LB, (96) Lucas Niang T, (138) L'Jarius Snead S, (177) Michael Danna DE, (237) Thakarius Keyes CB.

2021: (58) Nick Bolton LB, (6) Creed Humphrey OL, (144) Joshua Keindoh DE, (102) Noah Gray TE, (181) Cornell Powell WR, (226) Trey Smith OL.

2022: (21) Trent McDuffie CB, (30) George Karlaftis III DE, (54) Skyy Moore WR, (62) Bryan Cook S, (103) Leo Chenal LB, (135) Joshua Williams CB, (145) Darian Kinnard T, (243) Jaylen Watson DB, (251) Isiah Pacheco RB, (259) Nazah Johnson S.

2023: (31) Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE, (55) Rashee Rice WR, (92) Wanya Morris OL, (119) Chamarri Conner DB, (166) BJ Thompson DE, (194) Keondre Coburn DT, (250) Nic Jones  CB.

2024: (28) Xavier Worthy WR, (63) Kingsley Suamataia OL, (131) Jared Wiley TE, (133) Jaden Hicks DB, (211) Kamal Hadden DB, (248) C.J. Hanson OL.

 

Buffalo:

2017: (27) Tre White CB, (37) Zay Jones WR, (63) Dion Dawkins OL, (163) Matt Milano LB, (171) Nathan Peterman QB, (195) Tanner Vallejo LB.

2018: (7) Josh Allen QB, (16) Tremaine Edmunds LB, (96) Harrison Phillips DT, (121) Taron Johnson CB, (154) Siran Neal DB, (166) Wyatt Teller OL, (187) Ray Ray McCloud WR, (258) Austin Proehl WR.

2019: (9) Ed Oliver DT, (38) Cody Ford OL, (74) Devin Singletary RB, (96) Dwson Knox TE, (147) Vosean Joseph LB, (181) Jaquan Johnson CB, (225) Darryl Johnson DE, (228) Tommy Sweeney TE.

2020: (54) A.J. Epenesa DE, (86) Zack Moss RB, (128) Gabe Davis WR, (167) Jake Fromm QB, (188) Tyler Bass K, (207) Isaiah Hodgins WR, (239) Dane Jackson CB.

2021: (30) Greg Rousseau, (61) Boogie Basham DE, (93) Spencer Brown OL, (161) Tommy Doyle OL, (203) Marquez-Stevenson WR, (212) Damar Hamlin S, (213) Rachad Wildgoose CB, (236) Jack Anderson OL.

2022: (23) Kaiir Elam CB, (63) James Cook RB, (89) Terrell Bernard LB, (48) Khalil Shakir WR, (180) Matt Araiza P, (185) Christian Benford CB, (209) Luke Tenuta OL, (231) Baylon Spector LB.

2023: (25) Dalton Kincaid, (59) O'Cyrus Torrence OL, (91) Dorian Williams LB, (150) Justin Shorter WR, (230) Nick Broeker OL, (252) Alex Austin DB.

2024: (33) Keon Coleman WR, (60) Cole Bishop S, (95) DeWayne Carter DT, (128) Ray Davis RB, (141) Sedrick Van Pran-Granger OL, (160) Edefuan Ulofoshio LB, (168) Javon Solomon De, (204) Tylan Grable OL, (219) DaeQuan Hardy CB, (221) Travis Clayton OL.

 

 

2016-2024         Team Record      Number of Picks      Avg. Draft Number      Playoff Appearances      Conf Champ Appearances      SB Appearances     SB Wins

San Francisco         72-76                      66                            133.6                                 4                                            4                                           2                       0            

Philadelphia            90-57                      57                             121.9                                 7                                            3                                           3                        2      

Kansas City            112-36                      54                            126.9                                 8                                            7                                           5                        3                             

Buffalo*                   93-54                      61                             134.3                                 7                                            2                                           0                        0  

*Obviously McBeane were not here in 2016, when the Bills went 7-9, which is included in the overall record above. But I kept that in because it affected our 2017 draft position.           

 

So, over McBeane's tenure, Philly (and KC) have still picked higher than both Buffalo and San Fran on average (obviously, some of that were trades, etc. as Philly had a similar overall record to the Bills and KC had a better record). But, the biggest thing that jumps out to me from that table is Kansas City's record---112 wins, 7 Conference Championship games. People like to knock the Bills for not making the Super Bowl yet, and praise Philadelphia. But, hasn't the Eagles (and Niners) path to the Super Bowl from the NFC been quite a bit easier than Buffalo's, without Kansas City being in their way? I mean Roscoe named San Fran as the other biggest NFC contender over that span and despite two Super Bowl appearances, they don't even have an above .500 record over that stretch. 

 

But, let me know what you guys think in regards to drafting impact players, or comparing Beane's drafts overall to the other three teams (if you actually took the time to read this very long post. 😬🙂). Obviously, each GM has their misses (even in the first two rounds). Interesting to note, all four teams got a franchise QB over that stretch. And I honestly think (may be my Bills bias), you could argue that Buffalo was either first or second in at least three of those eight drafts (despite a couple of clunker years from Beane---but the other GMs had some clunkers too).

 

Go Bills!

There is a degree of subjectivity to who has drafted the best. And of course the actual picks are only a small portion of talent management. For example, the Eagles were only in position to draft Jalen Carter because they had traded two 2022 first round picks to the Saints for a 2023 first round pick and an assortment of picks in 2022-2024. They did the 2022 trade because they had 3 first rounders that year (their own, one from the Wentz trade and one from trading down with the Dolphins when they picked Waddle). In addition to the drafting, they made great trades (AJ Brown) and free agent signings (Saquon). 
 

If we want to decide ONLY who drafts the most top tier players:

 

Beane’s Bills (drafted players from 2018 on)

- 0 All pros

- Pro Bowlers: Josh Allen 4x, Tremaine 2x, James Cook 2x, Dawson Knox 1x

 

Eagles (2018 draftees on)

- 0 All Pros

- Pro Bowlers: Landon Dickerson 3x, Jalen Hurts 2x, Jalen Carter 1x, Cam Jurgens 1x, Josh Sweat 1x

 

49ers (2018 draftees on)

- All Pros: Fred Warner 4x, Nick Bosa 1x, Deebo 1x, Talanoa Hufanga 1x

- Pro Bowlers: all the above, Brock Purdy 1x

 

Chiefs (2018 draftees on)

- All Pro: Creed Humphrey 1x, Trent McDuffie 1x

- Pro Bowlers: All the above, Trey Smith 1x

 

The 49ers have been the best at drafting talent which has helped them compete without having a great QB (tho he was a pro bowler!). The Chiefs and Eagles are closer to the Bills in terms of top tier talent added over this span.

 

One thing to remember though is that the Chiefs already had hall of farmers Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and Patrick Mahomes on the roster and had made the playoffs every year since 2015. The Eagles had just come off of a Super Bowl win in 2017.

 

So though the Bills have kind of kept up with them drafting since 2018, the Bills had started from so far back (17 consecutive playoff less seasons) that we did need to hit more on top tier talent than we have in order to lap the Chiefs or even the Eagles. 
 

The few opportunities we have had to add a top tier talent outside of Josh Allen has been Diggs (huge hit!), Ed Oliver (just a good player), and Von Miller in free agency (a miss with the injury qualifier). Hasn’t been a good enough difference maker hit rate with those. So though we have been ok drafting, Beane does have to be better in order to catch up to the talent level that was already on these other team’s rosters. 

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, LEBills said:

So though the Bills have kind of kept up with them drafting since 2018, the Bills had started from so far back (17 consecutive playoff less seasons) that we did need to hit more on top tier talent than we have in order to lap the Chiefs or even the Eagles. 
 

The few opportunities we have had to add a top tier talent outside of Josh Allen has been Diggs (huge hit!), Ed Oliver (just a good player), and Von Miller in free agency (a miss with the injury qualifier). Hasn’t been a good enough difference maker hit rate with those. So though we have been ok drafting, Beane does have to be better in order to catch up to the talent level that was already on these other team’s rosters. 

We got T. White, Dawkiins, and Milano in the 2017 draft and signed Poyer and Hyde that off-season before Beane got here.  That's what, 4 all pros at one point and a perennial Pro Bowler in Dawkins?  Plus, Beane was coming in with two first rounders before he even made the Watkins trade for a 2nd.  I'm not saying he wasn't behind the eight ball in 2018 but I don't think he was that far behind.

[LEBills]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

We got T. White, Dawkiins, and Milano in the 2017 draft and signed Poyer and Hyde that off-season before Beane got here.  That's what, 4 all pros at one point and a perennial Pro Bowler in Dawkins?  Plus, Beane was coming in with two first rounders before he even made the Watkins trade for a 2nd.  I'm not saying he wasn't behind the eight ball in 2018 but I don't think he was that far behind.

compare those names to Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and Tyreek Hill for a few seasons among other high tier players. He had some players but none of them will be Hall of famers like the team that keeps knocking us out has/had. But don’t get me wrong, I’m one of Beane’s biggest critics, Beane has to do much better than he has.

[MasterStrategist]

Appreciate the analysis and in depth, BUT...

 

all that really matters is winning and losing.  Its not about who found 3 all pro players, or who drafted better, its about the "organization"...team building philosophy to coaching to player development to player progression to on field results.

 

Point is, I don't put anything solely on Beane.  He's clearly a big part of putting together an extremely successful franchise. 

 

This organization needs a defensive reset, from mentality to personell.  Im glad theyve seemed to address both this offseason, via coaching additions, what appears to be some X/Os changes to more man, and player investments in FA and draft.  

 

You don't win championships by having just a great offense.  The defense has to be more than capable of holding its own when it matters most.  Championship caliber has been lacking on defense, which is a problem for a defensive minded head coach and what im sure led to the draft we just witnessed.

 

My opinion, we have the right leaders at GM, coaching etc.  We need to change this philosophy that the Dane Jackson and Damar Hamlins of the world can be starters for this team....just two examples of what we've tried to get away with -- soft zone and Mahomes is going to eat that alive in playoffs, with Reids coaching.  We need legit starting caliber players....my rant is over, because im glad Beane addressed most--  safety to me is still a glaring issue, that can't be hidden come playoffs unless Bishop becomes a stud.

[Mikie2times]

32 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Appreciate the analysis and in depth, BUT...

 

all that really matters is winning and losing.  Its not about who found 3 all pro players, or who drafted better, its about the "organization"...team building philosophy to coaching to player development to player progression to on field results.

 

Point is, I don't put anything solely on Beane.  He's clearly a big part of putting together an extremely successful franchise. 

 

This organization needs a defensive reset, from mentality to personell.  Im glad theyve seemed to address both this offseason, via coaching additions, what appears to be some X/Os changes to more man, and player investments in FA and draft.  

 

You don't win championships by having just a great offense.  The defense has to be more than capable of holding its own when it matters most.  Championship caliber has been lacking on defense, which is a problem for a defensive minded head coach and what im sure led to the draft we just witnessed.

 

My opinion, we have the right leaders at GM, coaching etc.  We need to change this philosophy that the Dane Jackson and Damar Hamlins of the world can be starters for this team....just two examples of what we've tried to get away with -- soft zone and Mahomes is going to eat that alive in playoffs, with Reids coaching.  We need legit starting caliber players....my rant is over, because im glad Beane addressed most--  safety to me is still a glaring issue, that can't be hidden come playoffs unless Bishop becomes a stud.

I think this is more the million dollar question. I have posted on this previously, below is the allocation of draft capitol by position. It's only looking at how teams spent what they had, not how much they had. I'm summing the total point value of every pick and looking at a % of how those point values were spent at each position. 

 

Buffalo ranks 7th in defensive spend since 2018. We have had top 10 defenses in years past. We even had top 3 defenses in years past. It just doesn't translate when it matters most. Which speaks to your call out of philosophical changes. It is entirely possible Beane and McDermott could be highly effective leaders and that is most likely the case, but is our approach married to the wrong concepts, specifically on defense? Then if so, how likely is that to fundamentally change? More clarity should come this season I would think and that is part of what makes this year very exciting. 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Mikie2times

[Richard Noggin]

Awesome thread overall. Just look at the magnificently nerdy nonsense right above me on my screen as I type out this reply:

 

 

People can approach these ranked analytics from so many directions, and employ so many different analytical tools, as well as so many different philosophical/evaluative perspectives. 

 

Personally I think it's true that fans (of teams who didn't just win SBs) overvalue their own org's FA and draft MISSES. And probably aren't nearly as aware of the frequency or impact of other good orgs' misses. Grass is always greener cliche. But the truth is that if Beane and Co had actually locked down just a couple more hits amongst the misses, especially near the top of the draft, then maybe the Bills would have a 'Ship already. Or maybe if coaching was just a little more ahead of the curve. Or maybe if good players just made one more play...

 

You see how insanely interrelated football is. Nothing can truly be analyzed or judged in a vacuum. 

[Doc Brown]

40 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I think this is more the million dollar question. I have posted on this previously, below is the allocation of draft capitol by position. It's only looking at how teams spent what they had, not how much they had. I'm summing the total point value of every pick and looking at a % of how those point values were spent at each position. 

 

Buffalo ranks 7th in defensive spend since 2018. We have had top 10 defenses in years past. We even had top 3 defenses in years past. It just doesn't translate when it matters most. Which speaks to your call out of philosophical changes. It is entirely possible Beane and McDermott could be highly effective leaders and that is most likely the case, but is our approach married to the wrong concepts, specifically on defense? Then if so, how likely is that to fundamentally change? More clarity should come this season I would think and that is part of what makes this year very exciting. 

 

 

Just the type of players they drafted/signed in free agency and the hiring of Nielsen makes me think McBeane had the same autopsy.  Bringing in different minds to attack a problem is never a bad idea.  I was hoping that Lou Anarumo would be hired in a similar role but he obviously took the d-coordinator spot with the Colts.  It's going to be intriguing to see how much this defense sways from the McDermott system this year.

[GASabresIUFan]

2 hours ago, LEBills said:

Beane’s Bills (drafted players from 2018 on)

- 0 All pros

- Pro Bowlers: Josh Allen 4x, Tremaine 2x, James Cook 2x, Dawson Knox 1x

Taron Johnson was an AP-2 a few years ago and Josh was an AP-2 last season (and the league MVP).

 

Wyatt Teller, a Beane draftee, has 2 AP-2 and 3 PBs.  

Edited 12 minutes ago by GASabresIUFan