McBean's Drafting vs. Chiefs, Eagles, and 49ers (draft position/impact players?)

[folz]

This is actually an extension of a conversation from the "Beane elaborates on the process of picking Josh Allen" topic. But, I thought that I would start a new thread, so more people would weigh in (and because this will be a long post).

 

So, in the other topic, I mentioned that some posters will point out that Philly has drafted more impact players than the Bills. And I pointed out that that isn't surprising, considering most of those impact players came in the last four years when Philly picked significantly higher than the Bills in the draft. For reference again, here are the 1st and 2nd round picks the Eagles and the Bills have had in the first two rounds over the last 4 years. They had 4 picks higher than our best pick, so not surprising that Roseman has picked more impact players over that span, imo.

Philly picks: 9, 10, 13, 21, 30, 37, 51, 53

Bills picks: 23, 25, 30, 54, 59, 61. 63

 

I then linked an old post where I compared Beane's last 4-5 drafts with K.C.'s and Tampa Bay's drafts. Why K.C. and Tampa? Because those are the only two other teams to make the playoffs in each of the last 5 seasons (along with Buffalo). So, K.C. and Tampa are the only teams who have picked relatively close to where the Bills have picked over that same span (to have a fair comparison for Beane's drafts). Roscoe responded as follows:

 

On 5/11/2025 at 9:51 PM, RoscoeParrish said:

 

I’m fairly confident if you compared the Niners, Eagles and Chiefs drafts to our since 2017 you’d find a couple things:

 

#1 the average draft position isn’t THAT different

#2 all 3 teams have found more impact players than Buffalo

 

As interesting as it is to compare us to the Buccaneers, I don’t really consider them an obstacle to winning a Super Bowl. 

 

Well, I went through all of the drafts going back to 2017 (posted below). I can answer the average draft position question, but I'd love for people to weigh in on Roscoe's second question. Have all three teams found more impact players than the Bills in that span (and by how much)? Sometimes I think we as fans look at the Bills in a vaacum. We'll point out all of Beane's bad picks and knock him for it, but not actually compare it to the full body of work of other GMs. We just point out other GMs good picks and put them on a pedestal. We don't seem to knock other GMs (as much) for their bad picks or bad draft years. But, I'll leave it up to you guys. As Roscoe asked, here are the last 8 drafts for four of the more successful teams in the league over that span (the draft pick/number is in parentheses---and forgive me for any misspellings of player's names):

 

San Francisco:

2017: (3) Solomon Thomas DE, (31) Reuben Foster LB, (66) Ahkello Witherspoon CB, (104) C.J. Beathard DB, (121) Joe Williams RB, (146) George Kittle TE, (177) Trent Taylor WR, (198) D.J. Jones DT, (202) Pita Taumoepuna CB, (229) Adrien Culbert DB.

2018: (9) Mike McGlinchey T, (44) Dante Pettis WR, (70) Fred Warner LB, (95) Tarvarius Moore S, (128) Kentavius Street DT, (142) D.J. Reed CB, (184) Marcell Harris S, (240), Richie James WR, (223) Julian Taylor DT.

2019: (2) Nick Bosa DE, (36) Deebo Samuel WR, (67) Jalen Hurd WR, (110) Mitch Wishnowsky P, (148 Dre Greenlaw LB, (176) Kaden Smith TE, (183) Justin Skule T, (198) Tim Harris CB.

2020: (14) Javon Kinlaw DT, (25) Brandon Aiyuk WR, (153) Colton McKivitz T, (190) Charlie Woerner TE, (217) Juan Jennings WR.

2021: (3) Trey Lance QB, (48) Aaron Banks OL, (88) Trey Sermon RB, (102) Ambry Thomas DB, (155) Jaylon Moore T, (172) Deommodore Lenoir CB, (180) Talanoa Hufanga S, (194) Elijah Mitchell RB.

2022: (61) Drake Jackson LB, (93) Tyrion Davis-Prince RB, (105) Danny Gray WR, (134) Spencer Burford OL, (172) Samuel Womack CB, (189) Nick Zaken OL, (220) Kalia Davis DT, (221) Tariq Castro-Fields CB, (262) Brock Purdy QB.

2023: (87) Ji'Ayir Brown S, (99) Jake Moody K, (101) Cameron Latu TE, (155) Darrell Luter CB, Robert Beal LB, Dee Winters LB, (247) Brayden Willis TE, (253) Ronnie Bell WR, (255) Jalen Graham S.

2024: (31) Ricky Pearsall WR, (64) Renardo Green DB, (86) Dominick Puni OL, (124) Malik Mustapha DB, (129) Isaac Guerendo RB, (135) Jacob Cowing WR, (215) Jarrett Kingston OL, (251) Tatum Bethune LB.

 

Philadelphia:

2017: (14) Derek Barnett DE, (43) Sydney Jones CB, (99) Rasul Douglas CB, (118) Mack Hollins WR, (132) Donnel Pumphrey RB, (166) Shelton Gibson WR, (184) Nathan Gerry S, (214) Elijah Quails DT.

2018: (49) Dallas Goedert TE, (125) Avonte Maddox CB, (130) Josh Sweat DE, (206) Matt Pryor T, (233) Jordan Mailata T.

2019: (22) Andre Dillard T, (53) Miles Sanders RB, (57) J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WR, (138) Shareef Miller DE, (167) Clayton Thorson QB.

2020: (21) Jalen Reagor WR, (53) Jalen Hurts QB, (103) Davion Taylor LB, (127) K'Von Wallace S, (145) Jack Driscoll G, (168) John Hightower WR, (196) Shaun Bradley LB, (200) Quez Watkins WR, (210) Prince Tega Wanojho T, (233) Casey Tolhill DE.

2021: (10) Devonta Smith WR, (37) Landon Dickerson OL, (73) Milton Williams DL, (123) Zech McPherson DB, (150) Kenneth Gainwell RB, (187) Marlon Tuipulota DL, (191) Tarron Jackson DE, (224) Jacoby Stevens S, (234) Patrick Johnson DE.

2022: (13) Jordan Davis DT, (51) Cam Jurgens OL, (83) Nakobe Dean LB, (181) Kyron Johnson DE, (198) Grant Calcaterra TE.

2023: (9) Jalen Carter, (30) Nolan Smith LB, (65) Tyler Steen OL, Sydney Brown DB, (105) Kelee Ringo DB, (168) Tanner McKee QB, (249) Moro Ojomo DE.

2024: (22) Quinyon Mitchell CB, (40) Cooper Dejean DB, (94) Jalyx Hunt DE, (127) Will Shipley RB, (152) Ainias Smith WR, (155) Jeremiah Trotter, Jr. CB, (185) Johnny Wilson WR, (190) Dylan McMahon OL.

 

Kansas City:

2017: (10) Patrick Mahomes QB, (59) Tanoh Kpassagnon DE, (86) Kareem Hunt RB, (139) Jehu Clesson WR, (183) Ukeme Eligwe LB, (218) Leon McQuay RB.

2018: (46)Breeland Speaks DE, (75) Derrick Nnadi DT, (100) Dorian O'Daniel LB, (124) Armani Watts S, (196) Tremon Smith WR, (198) Khailil McKenzie DT.

2019: (56) Mecole Hardman, (63) Juan Thornhill S, (84) Halen Saunders DT, (201) Rashad Fenton CB, (214) Darwin Thompson RB, (216) Nick Allegretti OL.

2020: (32) Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB, (63) Willie Gay, Jr. LB, (96) Lucas Niang T, (138) L'Jarius Snead S, (177) Michael Danna DE, (237) Thakarius Keyes CB.

2021: (58) Nick Bolton LB, (6) Creed Humphrey OL, (144) Joshua Keindoh DE, (102) Noah Gray TE, (181) Cornell Powell WR, (226) Trey Smith OL.

2022: (21) Trent McDuffie CB, (30) George Karlaftis III DE, (54) Skyy Moore WR, (62) Bryan Cook S, (103) Leo Chenal LB, (135) Joshua Williams CB, (145) Darian Kinnard T, (243) Jaylen Watson DB, (251) Isiah Pacheco RB, (259) Nazah Johnson S.

2023: (31) Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE, (55) Rashee Rice WR, (92) Wanya Morris OL, (119) Chamarri Conner DB, (166) BJ Thompson DE, (194) Keondre Coburn DT, (250) Nic Jones  CB.

2024: (28) Xavier Worthy WR, (63) Kingsley Suamataia OL, (131) Jared Wiley TE, (133) Jaden Hicks DB, (211) Kamal Hadden DB, (248) C.J. Hanson OL.

 

Buffalo:

2017: (27) Tre White CB, (37) Zay Jones WR, (63) Dion Dawkins OL, (163) Matt Milano LB, (171) Nathan Peterman QB, (195) Tanner Vallejo LB.

2018: (7) Josh Allen QB, (16) Tremaine Edmunds LB, (96) Harrison Phillips DT, (121) Taron Johnson CB, (154) Siran Neal DB, (166) Wyatt Teller OL, (187) Ray Ray McCloud WR, (258) Austin Proehl WR.

2019: (9) Ed Oliver DT, (38) Cody Ford OL, (74) Devin Singletary RB, (96) Dwson Knox TE, (147) Vosean Joseph LB, (181) Jaquan Johnson CB, (225) Darryl Johnson DE, (228) Tommy Sweeney TE.

2020: (54) A.J. Epenesa DE, (86) Zack Moss RB, (128) Gabe Davis WR, (167) Jake Fromm QB, (188) Tyler Bass K, (207) Isaiah Hodgins WR, (239) Dane Jackson CB.

2021: (30) Greg Rousseau, (61) Boogie Basham DE, (93) Spencer Brown OL, (161) Tommy Doyle OL, (203) Marquez-Stevenson WR, (212) Damar Hamlin S, (213) Rachad Wildgoose CB, (236) Jack Anderson OL.

2022: (23) Kaiir Elam CB, (63) James Cook RB, (89) Terrell Bernard LB, (48) Khalil Shakir WR, (180) Matt Araiza P, (185) Christian Benford CB, (209) Luke Tenuta OL, (231) Baylon Spector LB.

2023: (25) Dalton Kincaid, (59) O'Cyrus Torrence OL, (91) Dorian Williams LB, (150) Justin Shorter WR, (230) Nick Broeker OL, (252) Alex Austin DB.

2024: (33) Keon Coleman WR, (60) Cole Bishop S, (95) DeWayne Carter DT, (128) Ray Davis RB, (141) Sedrick Van Pran-Granger OL, (160) Edefuan Ulofoshio LB, (168) Javon Solomon De, (204) Tylan Grable OL, (219) DaeQuan Hardy CB, (221) Travis Clayton OL.

 

 

2016-2024         Team Record      Number of Picks      Avg. Draft Number      Playoff Appearances      Conf Champ Appearances      SB Appearances     SB Wins

San Francisco         72-76                      66                            133.6                                 4                                            4                                           2                       0            

Philadelphia            90-57                      57                             121.9                                 7                                            3                                           3                        2      

Kansas City            112-36                      54                            126.9                                 8                                            7                                           5                        3                             

Buffalo*                   93-54                      61                             134.3                                 7                                            2                                           0                        0  

*Obviously McBeane were not here in 2016, when the Bills went 7-9, which is included in the overall record above. But I kept that in because it affected our 2017 draft position.           

 

So, over McBeane's tenure, Philly (and KC) have still picked higher than both Buffalo and San Fran on average (obviously, some of that were trades, etc. as Philly had a similar overall record to the Bills and KC had a better record). But, the biggest thing that jumps out to me from that table is Kansas City's record---112 wins, 7 Conference Championship games. People like to knock the Bills for not making the Super Bowl yet, and praise Philadelphia. But, hasn't the Eagles (and Niners) path to the Super Bowl from the NFC been quite a bit easier than Buffalo's, without Kansas City being in their way? I mean Roscoe named San Fran as the other biggest NFC contender over that span and despite two Super Bowl appearances, they don't even have an above .500 record over that stretch. 

 

But, let me know what you guys think in regards to drafting impact players, or comparing Beane's drafts overall to the other three teams (if you actually took the time to read this very long post. 😬🙂). Obviously, each GM has their misses (even in the first two rounds). Interesting to note, all four teams got a franchise QB over that stretch. And I honestly think (may be my Bills bias), you could argue that Buffalo was either first or second in at least three of those eight drafts (despite a couple of clunker years from Beane---but the other GMs had some clunkers too).

 

Go Bills!

Edited 4 hours ago by folz

[NORWOODS FOOT]

Thanks for the in-depth. I sound like a broken record, but McBeane is good, not great. It’s that last 5% that they just can’t quite seem to pull off that a very few other teams are able to do to get over the hump. Who knows. Maybe they’ll improve. Or maybe we get lucky one of these years. It’s a game of inches (*cough*Andvegashollywoodbs*cough*)

 

Maybe we could get Dalton Kincaid to be be in a love triangle with Beyoncé and Jay Z… have them to the games and stuff… LOL

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by NORWOODS FOOT

[JohnNord]

The whole Beane vs. Brett Veach was a topic on “It’s Always Gameday in Buffalo.”  Sal felt that Beane drafting was just as good as Veach with some hits and a few Day 1 and Day 2 misses.  Bove seemed to think that Veach was better based on the fact he selected 3 All Pro players (Humphrey, Sneed, McDuffie) whereas Beane has 0 currently.  I would tend to agree with the latter.  
 

 

[RoscoeParrish]

Awesome post @folz

 

To state the conclusion in the reverse fashion, I would say yes.

 

I think there is a lot of hair splitting when it comes to “impact player.” 
 

But let’s lump instead of split. I will compare the “impact” Niners players to the Bills as we basically have had identical draft position since 2017. And my criteria will be “better than the league average at X position.” That will make a Christian Benford equal to a Hufunga, despite one being an all-pro and the other being just “very very good.” Players in the Hamlin or replacement level tier will be excluded. And due to injuries/careers ending, I will be considering the players at what their peaks were, as long as those peaks imo encapsulated them as a player. (ie Tre and Deebo both qualify as both were generally high level players for the majority of their careers, whereas guys like Devin Singletary who were starters but have generally bounced around the league do not).

 

Niners:

Kittle

McGlinchey

Fred Warner

DJ Reed

N Bosa

Deebo

Greenlaw

Aiyuk

Lenoir 

Hufunga

Purdy

Banks
 

Bills:

Tre

Dawkins

Milano

Allen

Taron Johnson

Teller

Ed

Brown

Gabe

Rousseau

Cook

Bernard

Benford

OCT

 

Numerically, very close.

 

Talent-wise? Not sure.

 

Allen>Purdy obviously, and probably outweighs the differences between the two lists.

 

But I think objectively, sans QB, list #1 is superior to list #2. Buffalo has the edge(no pun intended) at CB and OT. The Niners have the edge at pass rush, pass catchers, LB’s and safeties.

 

My rule is how many of X players would it take to get Y. Could you trade Ed and Rousseau for Nick Bosa? I don’t think so. Could you trade McGlinchey and Banks for Dawkins and Brown? Also no.

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by RoscoeParrish

[H2o]

Nice breakdown. 

 

Beane/McDermott, though we get frustrated and talk a lot of crap at times, when you stack them up against the other top end teams in the league, we look just as good. I really believe this year's draft is the one that is going to put us over the top. I really loved this draft class.