Dalton Kincaid Still Skinny

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Pete said:

Pretty ordinary cactches by NFL TE.  Dalton dropped that pass in the Broncos game.  Im shocked Denver didn't challenge.  Name a starting TE in the NFL and I will post a better highlight reel.  Not only were they ordinary catches, but as per usual, Dalton is tackled upon first contact

 

Here's an observation.  Kincaid was #3 among TE for YAC per reception - 6.2 Y/R after the catch.  Only Tucker Kraft of GNB (9.1) and George Kittle (6.7) had more.

But he's tackled upon first contact.

 

Huh.

[Richard Noggin]

On 5/20/2025 at 4:38 PM, HappyDays said:

 

We drafted him to be like Kelce, a cerebral player 

 

(I actually get what you're saying here and agree, but) what an insane thing to read lol 

 

"cerebral" is just a wild term to apply to a guy like him, in any capacity. For example: those early tweets, which were harmless, were clearly the musings of a very special buddy. 

 

15 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

There seems to be a disconnect between great hands in college and the NFL.  Josh Reed and Zay Jones were also suppose to have great hands coming out of the college but neither displayed that in the pros.  I don't remember any great catches by Kincaid either.

 

 

Josh Reed had exactly ONE pro season where he absolutely displayed the hands and tenacity that had previously won him the Biletnikoff in college. (But outside that year, those hands were SUSPECT.)

 

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I mean if you want a simple catch with above average yac for a TE.  Here. 

 

 

The main problem with Kincaid is his feel for zone coverage could be a lot better.  I know he dropped the ball on 4th down against the Chiefs.  I know he regressed his 2nd year and maybe injuries did or didn't play a part of it.  However, I do put some of it on Allen.  He's imo the most obvious choice on this team to exceed expectations this coming year while Palmer, Samuel, and Moore will likely disappoint. 

 

This highlight reel is a solid retort to the more comprehensive negativity about Kincaid in this thread. I share many concerns about him, and more after last season, but it's not impossible that he'd improve in year 3. Sure hope he's putting in the work. 

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

This highlight reel is a solid retort to the more comprehensive negativity about Kincaid in this thread. I share many concerns about him, and more after last season, but it's not impossible that he'd improve in year 3. Sure hope he's putting in the work. 

His catch percentage went down from 80.7% in 2023 to 58.7% last year.  Putting that steep decline purely on Kincaid while absolving Allen and Brady is ludicrous imo.  All three need to be better and I think he goes above 700 yards receiving this year at minimum.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Beck Water]

On 5/6/2025 at 12:03 PM, Southern Bills Fan said:

That happened to my wife after a few years of marriage. She went from a tight end to a large wide out.

 

You remind me of a joke.  I bet your wife knows this one.

 

A man notices his wife's butt is getting big. "I bet your butt is as big as my grill." He tells her. His wife rolls her eyes, but he gets a tape measure, measures her bottom, measures the grill, and teases her that they're about the same size.

That night, he tries to see if he can get lucky. "Not tonight," says his wife.

He asks her why not, to which she responds, "Do you really think I'm going to fire up this big-ass grill for one little wiener?"

https://www.ba-bamail.com/jokes/comeback-jokes/?jokeid=1269
 

[Beck Water]

On 5/6/2025 at 1:52 PM, BarleyNY said:

I always laughed when I saw people get excited about playing more 12 Personnel after Kincaid got drafted. If he’s one of your TEs, then you are still in 11. 

 

Mmm. Except one of Kincaid's problems (in my observation) is releasing off the line against physical coverage.  As of last season, he hadn't learned to release like an NFL WR

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

His catch percentage went down from 80.7% in 2023 to 58.7% last year.  Putting that steep decline purely on Kincaid while absolving Allen and Brady is ludicrous imo.  All three need to be better and I think he goes above 700 yards receiving this year at minimum.

 

Yeah - 25 uncatchable targets out of 75 feels high.  I feel like Keon also had a number of uncatchable ones.  

[Mat68]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yeah - 25 uncatchable targets out of 75 feels high.  I feel like Keon also had a number of uncatchable ones.  

True but some are actual throw aways.  Either they make a great catch or it’s incomplete.  Kincaid and Coleman are in position for an increase in production and I think one or both have big years.  Il add Shakir too but different reasoning.  Shakir has received an increase in targets every year and expect this season to be no different.  I think Shakir will be primary on most designed pass plays.  I think he gets around 120 targets and break 1,000 yards. 

[BarleyNY]

39 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Mmm. Except one of Kincaid's problems (in my observation) is releasing off the line against physical coverage.  As of last season, he hadn't learned to release like an NFL WR

 

I didn’t say he was particularly good at all WR aspects. You’re right, he’s not. But problems releasing off the LOS is a reason some WRs get moved to the slot, which helps cover up that issue to an extent. When defenders get their hands on Kincaid, he isn’t strong or savvy enough to break away quickly. It’s probably worse for him that he’s listed as a TE since refs seem to allow more contact with TEs than WRs.

 

My point was more that he is a poor blocker - abysmal coming out of college and still below average - and as such he doesn’t give an offense the advantage 2 TE sets typically give in the run game. So your point is well taken. If he isn’t going to be an effective blocker he needs to make up for that by being a very good receiver. He's never going to be fast for a WR, so he’d better get stronger or more savvy.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

24 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

True but some are actual throw aways.  Either they make a great catch or it’s incomplete.  Kincaid and Coleman are in position for an increase in production and I think one or both have big years.  Il add Shakir too but different reasoning.  Shakir has received an increase in targets every year and expect this season to be no different.  I think Shakir will be primary on most designed pass plays.  I think he gets around 120 targets and break 1,000 yards. 

 

I just think when someone quotes catch% and says look how bad it was - there's nuance to it.  

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I didn’t say he was particularly good at all WR aspects. You’re right, he’s not. But problems releasing off the LOS is a reason some WRs get moved to the slot, which helps cover up that issue to an extent. When defenders get their hands on Kincaid, he isn’t strong or savvy enough to break away quickly. It’s probably worse for him that he’s listed as a TE since refs seem to allow more contact with TEs than WRs.

 

My point was more that he is a poor blocker - abysmal coming out of college and still below average - and as such he doesn’t give an offense the advantage 2 TE sets typically give in the run game. So your point is well taken. If he isn’t going to be an effective blocker he needs to make up for that by being a very good receiver. He's never going to be fast for a WR, so he’d better get stronger or more savvy.

 

I see what you're getting at.  I agree that the Bills can't use 12 sets with Knox and Kincaid as their TE and mount the prototypical threat in the run game that a 2 TE set poses.  My point was that the Bills aren't really in 11 either, because Kincaid doesn't pose the same threat that a good WR poses. 

True, they could bunch Kincaid, but the Bills already have a good slot receiver in Shakir.

 

I actually think that Kincaid is a better downfield blocker now than he's credited with, using timing and space to get in the way just enough.  You're right that he isn't a road grader downfield and he can't block inline, which is why the Bills went to adding a 6th lineman on run plays.

 

Anyway, I hope Kincaid has been able to put effort into improving the release aspects of his game, whatever that takes - sheer physical strength, footwork etc.  His basketball background ought to give him the balance and body control to learn how to fake DBs out, I don't think he ever got to the point where he tried because the film was out that if they just jammed him he could be neutralized.

 

[Don Otreply]

On 5/28/2025 at 4:54 PM, sir andrew said:

This is peak offseason right here...

Just wait till I get going, this ain’t nuthin, 😁👍

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

38 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I see what you're getting at.  I agree that the Bills can't use 12 sets with Knox and Kincaid as their TE and mount the prototypical threat in the run game that a 2 TE set poses.  My point was that the Bills aren't really in 11 either, because Kincaid doesn't pose the same threat that a good WR poses. 

True, they could bunch Kincaid, but the Bills already have a good slot receiver in Shakir.

 

I actually think that Kincaid is a better downfield blocker now than he's credited with, using timing and space to get in the way just enough.  You're right that he isn't a road grader downfield and he can't block inline, which is why the Bills went to adding a 6th lineman on run plays.

 

Anyway, I hope Kincaid has been able to put effort into improving the release aspects of his game, whatever that takes - sheer physical strength, footwork etc.  His basketball background ought to give him the balance and body control to learn how to fake DBs out, I don't think he ever got to the point where he tried because the film was out that if they just jammed him he could be neutralized.

 

 

The thing i like about him in an "11" look is YAC though.  Either with him as a harder player to tackle, or blocking downfield.  Tight ends just add an element of nastiness and physicality that you don't get with a full speed attack.  Adding some new man beater players definitely helps against teams that want to man up and blitz, but i think coleman's probably the biggest x-factor this season against those looks.  If he can become a problem in 1x1's 

 

You can also motion him across and pin defensive ends in trap like run plays which can allow you to get a tackle moving across the formation.  Get knox and the tackles moving up field to create running lanes, while hiding a weaker blocker.  It also tends to create challenges in play action looks that should help create space for him to operate.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

It's settled, then:

1.) Kincaid needs to wear gloves, like Nicklaus' grandson O'Leary did.

2.) Kincaid needs to talk with Ross Tucker.

[Thrivefourfive]

As two more top prospects go early in the draft to add to the number of better tight ends drafted in the league post DK86. But we shall see. If the Bills can’t find a use for him this season can’t imagine they’d do anything to retain his services 

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yeah - 25 uncatchable targets out of 75 feels high.  I feel like Keon also had a number of uncatchable ones.  

PFF still has him as the 10th best TE.  He's going to be good in this league.  Brady, him, and Josh need to figure it out or you'll see him excelling elsewhere.

 

10. Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid is another second-year tight end whose production declined from his rookie season, but he has still generated the ninth-most PFF WAR across the past two seasons. His 71.1 PFF receiving grade in 2024 was actually better than his rookie-season mark, but he saw 20 fewer targets and caught 31 fewer passes.

Edited 8 minutes ago by Doc Brown