Your thoughts on the Bills offseason so far

[BobbyC81]

Another couple of free agent WR signings that don’t excite anybody.  
 

I just don’t get it.   You see what Cincy did in re-signing their receivers and what the Bears did to get Williams some weapons.  Why does Beane continue to shop in the bargain bin when he has an MVP QB?

[BullBuchanan]

Poor showing in FA. Handed out massive deals to players we already couldn't get the job done with, and gambled with a huge overpay on a WR that to date has been nothing more than a #3/#4 guy - that said, i like the player a lot. A washed up Joey Bosa doesn't move the needle at all for me. I'm a big fan of the Hoecht signing, but he's yet another complimentary piece on a defensive line full of them. We need at least one dominant playmaker there.

This team needs 3-4 more all-pro level talents and they added none. We'll have to pray they can get 2 in this draft, and add 1 or 2 more next year, because this roster as constructed isn't getting past this past season's Chiefs or Eagles.

[GunnerBill]

In a word, unconvincing. The Bills are still the best roster in the AFC East. They still have very few outright holes, but they have precisely one star too. Concerning to me that one of the contracts that hasn't got done is with the guy the closest I think they have to being a breakout star in Benford. I understand why you might wait on that deal, don't get me wrong, but he is a guy I could easily see becoming an elite NFL corner over the next 3 years and the Bills risk him doing that on another team. 

[oldmanfan]

Some here are saying that Beane did a poor job because he did not sign an elite level person at a position of need in free agency.  A couple things.  One, we didn’t have a ton of cap space.  Two, this wasn’t a stellar year for those kinds of free agents, and many teams signed their own to keep some very talented players from entering the market.

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

In a word, unconvincing. The Bills are still the best roster in the AFC East. They still have very few outright holes, but they have precisely one star too. Concerning to me that one of the contracts that hasn't got done is with the guy the closest I think they have to being a breakout star in Benford. I understand why you might wait on that deal, don't get me wrong, but he is a guy I could easily see becoming an elite NFL corner over the next 3 years and the Bills risk him doing that on another team. 

We don't know what he wants. He might be unreasonable.

[ProcessTruster]

a little early for this poll... see you with this in 6 months

[BuffaloBill]

15 hours ago, uticaclub said:

How can it be acceptable to remain the same? The team has not been good enough, and remaining the same should not be acceptable.

Remember the ask is how are things so far? There is a lot of offseason left. Additionally, the focus is almost entirely on signings and not on coaching changes. Look at what Aaron Kromer has done for the o-line. The o-line before Kromer, like the Bills D-line now, was a sore subject and source of frustration.  

[corta765]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

This team needs 3-4 more all-pro level talents and they added none. We'll have to pray they can get 2 in this draft, and add 1 or 2 more next year, because this roster as constructed isn't getting past this past season's Chiefs or Eagles.

 

This may be hard to believe but adding 3-4 ALL PRO talents is not exactly easy and if it was every team would do it. Even if you want to trade for a guy you need a team willing to actually move a guy also. I am sure Beane wanted and was in on Crosby/Garrett but if the team won't trade them you can't do anything about that.

[ddaryl]

5 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

Another couple of free agent WR signings that don’t excite anybody.  
 

I just don’t get it.   You see what Cincy did in re-signing their receivers and what the Bears did to get Williams some weapons.  Why does Beane continue to shop in the bargain bin when he has an MVP QB?

Because we scored over 30 points a game last year.. What let us down was the defense. The offense is humming along, and limited resources are way more valuable getting the DL and CB tightened up.

Now Beane signing 2 DL that are suspended is frustrating but the crowd that keeps screaming WR refuses to look at the whole picture

The Bengals will struggle again this year. They have holes and tied up a lot on $$$ to keep Burrow happy, but it will cost them in other places IMO.

[Mister Defense]

12 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

 

WR Worse

Palmer went 584 yards and 1 TD last year. WITH a solid QB and fairly light competition for targets. Which is within the stat profile range of players like Amari Cooper, Mac Hollins, Curtis Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, and Deonte Hardy. I like Palmer and I'm optimistic about him, but to be objective, subtracting a guy like Mac and Cooper for him is not a break even until proven otherwise. 

 

Safety Better

I agree with this more based on the expectation that Bishop takes a big step. Forrest could end up being the next Poyer/Hyde acquisition or he could end up being more like Cam Lewis. Similar to Palmer, being objective, it's a total crap shoot. 

 

D Line Slightly better

In the last 3 years Von Miller has more sacks than Joey Bosa. It's not just one injury either, nagging issues like back problems make availability a serious question mark. Partner that with the likely further decline of DaQuan Jones who is still the starting 1 Tech and this group feels more break even. It does have some upward paths no doubt. A good draft, the availability of Hoecht and Ogunjobi, but we don't know what this looks like yet. Some improvement here, but will be hard to know until we get further along.

 

Corner Worse

I like Jackson for depth, but you can't subtract a multi year starter and replace him with Dane Jackson and call it a break even. This will depend on further additions and the draft. 

 

We don't seem signifgantly better or worse for that matter. Which for me is really disappointing as I feel we have been so close for so long, just one significant upgrade is all it will take and we haven't added one in 2023 or 2024. Our only path for 2025 will be the draft.  

 

 

Obviously an area I disagree with you is the wide receivers.  For reasons we still do not know completely of course,  Cooper was a difference maker in only a few games, and so was not the player the Bill envisioned.  297 yards with the Bills. And I thought Hollins would have his best year as a pro here, but was not close, though he did play an important role and came on more as the year progressed. 378 yards for the Bills, while I thought he may eclipse the 690 yards with the Raiders just two seasons ago.

 

It seems pretty clear that the Bills are determined to not make the same (possible) mistake they made with Samuels and fully believe that Joshua Palmer will be a starter next year, and a good one,  With his route running and separation ability, I think he will be that this year, opening an area of the field that was too often neglected last year and which made it easier to defend an otherwise high level offense.  I see Palmer as a 1000 yard receiver, far surpassing the productivity of Cooper and Hollins last season, and making an already excellent offense even better. Maybe wishful thinking. We'll see.

 

And, yes, I also figured in Bishop's expected progress at safety as one of my reasons for improved safety play next year.  The new found talent with Forrest, and the depth with Hamlin, likely mean a return, somewhat, to the high level safety play the Bills have been known for since McDermott took over, improving the very poor 3rd down efficiency and stopping many of the big plays.

 

And while still in need of help, a huge D-tackle (or two) and an end, the D-line is improved with the three additions.  

 

Right now the cornerbacks may be the weakest the Bills have had in a long time, well before McDermott, but Douglas seemed to hit a wall last year. I don't want him back unless they are desperate, which they may be. They better get a decent cornerback before the draft somehow, or they will likely need 3 good ones there, which is tough to accomplish.

 

The combo of some of these things makes me more hopeful than you are that the moves so far, and what is to come, are just what the Bills may need to take the next step.  So I find these moves making me 'really hopeful' that they are doing the things to take the next step next year, as opposed to finding them 'really disappointing'.  And they have ten picks in the draft, which I believe they will now parlay into 4 higher level players.   

 

The season will reveal how well we did in our analysis, but I think the Bills are at least slightly better in several key areas. With much more to come in the draft.

 

 

 

 

[corta765]

31 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

The Bengals will struggle again this year. They have holes and tied up a lot on $$$ to keep Burrow happy, but it will cost them in other places IMO.

Bingo. CIN is the worst example possible. They missed because their defense was so awful and couldn't stop a beach ball... so they have decided to run it back.

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Don't you think that can happen again though?  You listed some negatives so I'll just give you the half glass full look.

-Continuity with offense and defensive coordinators who theoretically should be better at their job.  I think your point about EPA on defense was a good one and maybe Babich should be on the hot seat.  I know everyone loves his personality and believe he can grow on the job.  However, he has to prove it or I could see McD taking over play calling permanently next year.

-Continuity on offense with the same starting five offensive lineman.  Has that ever happened here before?  Anderson included.

-We've seen young players grow in their 2nd and/or 3rd year (Cook, Shakir, Dawkins, Milano, Brown, Knox, T. Johnson, Benford).  No reason to believe one or more of Coleman, Kincaid, Torrence, and Carter can't do the same.  Players in contract years usually perform well so Cook and Benford should ball out this year.

-More competition at safety with signing Darrick Forest and pry drafting another one.  I don't think Hamlin's the week one starter.

-Again, this is glass half full but Bosa could be the player we all hoped Von would be when he signed here.  Do I think he can stay healthy?  No.  Do I think the Bills will do everything possible to make sure he's a 100% come playoff time when we have to likely play at least two of the three elite QB's in the league (Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow).  Yes.

 

I've never been a big free agent guy because there's usually a reason these players hit the open market.  It's kind of sad when the best free agent that wasn't re-signed by another team was Jevon Holland.  However, Palmer and Bosa intrigue me.  You also make a good point about trying to acquire difference makers which is why I'll always be sour that the Bills didn't offer more for Metcalf than the Steelers did.  Same goes for not signing Hopkins a couple years back when he went to Tennessee instead.

 

I think last year was us overestimating the impacts of losing guys like Diggs, Morse, Poyer, etc. It just turned out to not matter a great deal and it allowed us to be at or slightly above the level we had been at previous years. Which for me sort of blends together into a big soup of very good, but just not good enough. A few players away etc.

 

To move beyond that statement of a few players away the path in my mind is guys like Bishop, Benford, Coleman, Kincaid, Bernard having really big years. That or us landing somebody in the draft that can really elevate our play this year. I'm a bit pessimistic here that we see this play out, but certainly acknowledge (and hope) that it will go that way.

 

I'm less bullish on Bosa than some here. He hasn't been what we hoped he can be here for 3+ years. His injuries are not break and heal types, more reoccurring/consistent. He just doesn't seem like he will be able to stay healthy to the extent that he could push a 10 sack performance. A 4-6 sacks performance would be fairly similar to Von.  More bullish on Forrest, Ogunjobi, Hoecht but two of those three won't play for a bit so hard to say what to expect.

 

 

So to say I don't think we have any paths to improvement isn't really how I feel. But imagine if everything I just said was partnered with DK Metcalf or Hendrickson. So you added that elite player and then you still held all these cards which could turn out to be very good hands. That is what we should be doing (in my opinion) at this stage of our progression with Allen and the franchise. We have been very close for a very long time and we keep depending on our cards to really turn out when we could be more bold and force that to happen. We did this with Von, it would have worked out. He got hurt. But it doesn't mean it was the wrong move. 

[Einstein's Dog]

I think it's acceptable and between stayed the same and slightly improved.  Love the extensions (getting ahead of the curve) and the Bosa move (great value IMO) and am intrigued that they have a sleeper starting safety.  Worried about the CB and disappointed with our WR moves (hope it's not done).

 

However my expectations were for a splash signing.  I thought the FO took their medicine a year early on Diggs to have the flexibility to get a star this year.  So I had visions of a Garrett or Crosby or Hendrickson or DK Metcalf.  I was disappointed that DK Metcalf went for what he did to Pitt.

[BullBuchanan]

52 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

This may be hard to believe but adding 3-4 ALL PRO talents is not exactly easy and if it was every team would do it. Even if you want to trade for a guy you need a team willing to actually move a guy also. I am sure Beane wanted and was in on Crosby/Garrett but if the team won't trade them you can't do anything about that.

I'm fully aware it's not easy. You can't accomplish what you don't try though. You're right that Crosby and Garrett were off the market, but what about the other half dozen elite players that would have helped this team?

We already know the ceiling of every player we signed, except Palmer for which we paid like we did. If you knew you weren't going to go out and get an elite player, you should have taken a swing at rising players for a chance to hit a breakout. Instead we're going to entrust that to a bunch of rookies drafted at the end of eahc round or just hope we can win it all with a good, not great, roster - something that hasn't been done in my lifetime of just under 40 years.

[papazoid]

which is better ?.......assume they all play to the level of their contract

 

1 player @ $28.75 AAV (say tee higgins) or 4 players at $7 AAV (say what the bills did)

 

other than at QB.....i prefer to spread the risk of injury over several players and not be top heavy like cincy is about to face

 

 

Edited March 19 by papazoid

[No_Matter_What]

48 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm fully aware it's not easy. You can't accomplish what you don't try though. You're right that Crosby and Garrett were off the market, but what about the other half dozen elite players that would have helped this team?
 

Can you name these players that were available and we didn't sign them?

[PoundingDog]

6 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We already know the ceiling of every player we signed, except Palmer for which we paid like we did. If you knew you weren't going to go out and get an elite player, you should have taken a swing at rising players for a chance to hit a breakout. Instead we're going to entrust that to a bunch of rookies drafted at the end of eahc round or just hope we can win it all with a good, not great, roster - something that hasn't been done in my lifetime of just under 40 years.

This.

 

And I'll add we are at a point it will be hard to add an guy like Metcalf (or potential Hendrickson) because it requires both a high draft pick and loads of money.

 

Good point of taking a swing at a rising player. I think Hoecht is in that category too, evident by them investing fair good money despite knowing his suspension. 

 

The most important thing for the Bills I think is the improvement from their young players. Terrence is already there but they certainly hope Kincaid, Williams, Bishop and Coleman and become reliable starters. Can any one of them pop to even be considered an elite guy at the league level? 

[JP51]

Without the ped suspensions acceptable with them moves me to less than acceptable resigning our own back to acceptable.  But i am not sure we improved a ton here

Edited March 19 by JP51

[corta765]

47 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Can you name these players that were available and we didn't sign them?

Apparently we are playing Madden and either making new players OR teams are willing to just part with their best assets.

 

To date the only elite level player moved was Metcalf, there has not been a single defensive player moved that was rumored & Hendrickson looks like he may be going back to CIN.

[HappyDays]

I'm on record that failing to trade for Metcalf was a big mistake and we will regret it. Other than that the FA class on the whole was weak so I don't have strong feelings either way on the rest of our signings. Ogunjobi I'm lower on, Bosa I'm higher on, the rest I'm fine with overall. I'm disappointed Benford wasn't extended, to me he was the #1 priority re-sign but obviously the team didn't agree.

 

To be fair no other contenders seriously improved their roster this offseason either. That's not really what FA is about these days. Drafting well has become more important than ever with teams not letting their stars get away, although again that's why I wish we had taken the rare opportunity to trade for a star in Metcalf. I'm confident we can find a CB2 in the draft. I'm less confident we can find an impactful WR which remains a big need.