Week 4 - Bills at Ravens Game Week Thread

[f0neguy]

In Ed’s defense, we have no idea what he’s supposed to be doing each play.  Are all four D-linemen rushing all out or does Ed maintain a spot protecting the middle of the field?  Considering the pressure our DL is applying as a group, I’d think they’re all doing their jobs.

[HappyDays]

  On 9/27/2024 at 5:23 PM, f0neguy said:

In Ed’s defense, we have no idea what he’s supposed to be doing each play.  Are all four D-linemen rushing all out or does Ed maintain a spot protecting the middle of the field?  Considering the pressure our DL is applying as a group, I’d think they’re all doing their jobs.

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I would think Daquan Jones is the one protecting the middle of the field. He's the one taking on all of the double teams and he's still managing to exceed Oliver's pass rush win rate. I know the past couple years Oliver's pass rush win rate has been very high but so far this year it's just not been good. And that stat matches the eye test for me. I'm seeing him get swallowed up most of the time. I see our pass rush win on the edges a lot but very infrequently up the middle unless it's on the rare LB blitz or something like that. Hopefully he steps up his game because it's really the only noticeable weakness on our defense so far.

[Rockinon]

  On 9/27/2024 at 4:07 PM, HappyDays said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, but we need more from Ed Oliver:

 

He's getting doubled less than any DT in the league right now but he's winning his pass rush reps at a below average rate. Even Tim Settle has a higher win rate. I know he made a couple big plays against Miami but otherwise he has been kind of invisible to my eye.

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Daquan Jones, on the other hand, is killing it.

[Scott7975]

  On 9/27/2024 at 4:07 PM, HappyDays said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, but we need more from Ed Oliver:

 

He's getting doubled less than any DT in the league right now but he's winning his pass rush reps at a below average rate. Even Tim Settle has a higher win rate. I know he made a couple big plays against Miami but otherwise he has been kind of invisible to my eye.

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Seems that has been his career.  Has some big moments but otherwise lackluster.

[finn]

  On 9/27/2024 at 5:00 PM, ColoradoBills said:

 

That way of thinking is why Las Vegas put a "previous spins" electronic sign next to all of its roulette tables.

 

It gets people to think, "it just spun 4 blacks in a row, the next one HAS to be red"!

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Yes, but the bias goes both ways, right? A lot of gamblers will think, "It just spun 4 blacks in a row, the next one HAS to be black again!" 

[Solomon Grundy]

  On 9/27/2024 at 4:57 PM, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

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Love this show!!!

[ColoradoBills]

  On 9/27/2024 at 5:55 PM, finn said:

Yes, but the bias goes both ways, right? A lot of gamblers will think, "It just spun 4 blacks in a row, the next one HAS to be black again!" 

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Of course!  In Vegas they just want you to bet more.  The more you bet, the more they eventually win.

 

Both scenarios we just talked about are "illogical", but that is a human trait to think I know better.

[gonzo1105]

  On 9/27/2024 at 5:23 PM, f0neguy said:

In Ed’s defense, we have no idea what he’s supposed to be doing each play.  Are all four D-linemen rushing all out or does Ed maintain a spot protecting the middle of the field?  Considering the pressure our DL is applying as a group, I’d think they’re all doing their jobs.

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To me it was pretty obvious in week 1, they were focused on a contained rush against Kyler Murray more than getting upfield trying to get after him. That was all 4 of them. In week 2 against the Dolphins, I think they were trying to get in Tua's face as much as they could.

[Special K]

 

I wonder if Curtis Samuel has been playing the Lamar Jackson role in practice this week??

[Rubes]

  On 9/27/2024 at 5:27 PM, Rockinon said:

Daquan Jones, on the other hand, is killing it.

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Not sure I'd say exactly that. DaQuon is clearly getting more double teams, but his win rate is only slightly higher than Ed's.

 

Now, that does imply that DaQuon is doing better than Ed because he's winning a bit more often against more guys, but I don't think I'd look at that graph and think DaQuon is "killing it."

 

All that said, I'm very happy how DaQuon has been playing. Pretty happy with Ed, too, if I'm being honest.

 

[Scott7975]

 

[stevewin]

  On 9/27/2024 at 6:24 PM, Special K said:

 

I wonder if Curtis Samuel has been playing the Lamar Jackson role in practice this week??

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Should have signed McKittrick this week for that 😛

[Success]

Coleman had a good game 1, and I loved the TD last week.

 

I'm now ready for a true breakout game.

 

[Rockinon]

  On 9/27/2024 at 6:28 PM, Rubes said:

 

Not sure I'd say exactly that. DaQuon is clearly getting more double teams, but his win rate is only slightly higher than Ed's.

 

Now, that does imply that DaQuon is doing better than Ed because he's winning a bit more often against more guys, but I don't think I'd look at that graph and think DaQuon is "killing it."

 

All that said, I'm very happy how DaQuon has been playing. Pretty happy with Ed, too, if I'm being honest.

 

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Taking on 600lbs of OL blockers compared to Ed only taking on 300lbs percentage wise and still applying more pressure is absolutely killing it. Having that much beef to contend with regularly is no small feat.

[Scott7975]

 

[Rubes]

  On 9/27/2024 at 6:47 PM, Rockinon said:

Taking on 600lbs of OL blockers compared to Ed only taking on 300lbs percentage wise and still applying more pressure is absolutely killing it. Having that much beef to contend with regularly is no small feat.

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He's taking on a lot more, but it's not like he's got a great win percentage, so I'm not sure how you conclude that's "killing it."

 

He's doing his job, basically, which is to occupy blockers. He's not necessarily beating them.

 

Like I said, he's doing better than Ed, but that's not the same as killing it.

 

 

[syhuang]

 

 

 

[NewEra]

  On 9/27/2024 at 5:27 PM, HappyDays said:

 

I would think Daquan Jones is the one protecting the middle of the field. He's the one taking on all of the double teams and he's still managing to exceed Oliver's pass rush win rate. I know the past couple years Oliver's pass rush win rate has been very high but so far this year it's just not been good. And that stat matches the eye test for me. I'm seeing him get swallowed up most of the time. I see our pass rush win on the edges a lot but very infrequently up the middle unless it's on the rare LB blitz or something like that. Hopefully he steps up his game because it's really the only noticeable weakness on our defense so far.

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Ed Oliver has been a “noticeable weakness”?  Or he’s just been “invisible to your eye”?  Which is it, because they are 2 completely different things.  

Edited September 27, 2024 by NewEra

[Rockinon]

  On 9/27/2024 at 6:28 PM, Rubes said:

 

Not sure I'd say exactly that. DaQuon is clearly getting more double teams, but his win rate is only slightly higher than Ed's.

 

Now, that does imply that DaQuon is doing better than Ed because he's winning a bit more often against more guys, but I don't think I'd look at that graph and think DaQuon is "killing it."

 

All that said, I'm very happy how DaQuon has been playing. Pretty happy with Ed, too, if I'm being honest.

 

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Oh really?  How many DTs league wide are winning more and how many of them are getting double teamed more?

[Scott7975]

  On 9/27/2024 at 4:57 PM, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

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Full segment for people that want to watch it. It's a great watch IMO.

 

 

Edited September 27, 2024 by Scott7975