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Yardage Predictions for Bills Receivers in 2024


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I expect to be so wrong by the end of the year that I'll be embarrassed by this post.  But here goes anyway...


My guess for the statistical performances of our top 10 pass catchers this upcoming season:

 

 image.png.4f9ae1223228d060b327f9837bca232f.png

 

 

 

Shakir will be a bigger part of the O this year, so I project a sizeable improvement in his stats.

 

Samuel will be a starter and enjoy one of his better years with Josh throwing to him but not his very best.

 

Kincaid will enjoy a modest improvement over his rookie campaign.  A healthy Knox will get some of the TE targets.

 

Coleman will need to learn how to separate against NFL DBs and will be replaced in some packages by Claypool or MVS. 

 

Claypool and MVS will both get significant playing time, often at Coleman's expense.

 

Knox won't enjoy a banner year, losing targets to Kincaid, but will produce better than his injury-diminished 2023 season.

 

Cook will get a few less targets than last year simply because there are so many other options.  His drops don't help.  

 

Davis will contribute more in the passing game than Murray's 119 yards.


Hollins makes the 53 but is the forgotten man in the WR room.

 

Josh's 4603 yards will be, by a small margin, his most yards in a season yet (in what will be his 3rd 17-game season).  

 

Interested in how other folks project this breaking down.

 

 

Edited by hondo in seattle
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Your projections would make 2024 statistically Josh Allen's best season for total yardage.   I mean I would love for him to make the 5K club sooner than later but sadly I feel like the Bills may try and lean into the run game even more this season.   All the big bodied receivers we got may just have been an attempt to beef up the run blocking scheme as much if not more than improving our pass catching group.  I'm expecting the total passing yards this season to be in the 3900-4200 range with Kincaid probably leading the way.  

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3 minutes ago, Lost said:

Your projections would make 2024 statistically Josh Allen's best season for total yardage.   I mean I would love for him to make the 5K club sooner than later but sadly I feel like the Bills may try and lean into the run game even more this season.   All the big bodied receivers we got may just have been an attempt to beef up the run blocking scheme as much if not more than improving our pass catching group.  I'm expecting the total passing yards this season to be in the 3900-4200 range with Kincaid probably leading the way.  

 

Agree with you on the yardage figure.  My guess would lie between last season and Allen's 2019 numbers, closer to last season.  You got that nail.  

 

Having said that, it shouldn't be surprising if he were to post a career best rushing total yards.  

 

I wouldn't even guess on numbers until we know what the offensive scheme is.  

 

Order of yards ...

 

Shakir

Kincaid

Samuel 

Cook 

Coleman 

Knox 

 

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Shakir is going to breakout with a 1K+ season. Even if he just kept his pace up once they actually started to use him last year over the course of the season, he would have well over 900 yards for a season. He should do far more than just keep his pace up last year...he should well exceed it.

 

Kincaid likely around 900 yards, +/- 100 yards.

 

Samuel probably in the 700 range, Coleman 500-600 range

 

Edited by Big Turk
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I did pretty dang good at predicting catches/yards for Kincaid last year, so I’ll probably be wayyyy off this year. Not only that, but I get to predict who we keep on the team as well, which is hard enough without training camp. All that being said, here’s my future bad take:

 

 

Coleman: 77 Catches, 688 yards, 6 TDs

Samuel: 82 Catches, 761 yards, 6 TDs

Kincaid: 69 catches (nice), 702 yards, 4 TDs

Shakir: 52 catches, 562 yards, 4 TDs

Knox: 37 catches, 414 yards, 4 TDs

Claypool: 33 catches, 303 yards, 3 TDs

MVS: 24 catches, 219 yards, 2 TDs

Cook: 36 catches, 347 yards, 3 TDs

Davis: 14 catches, 211 yards, 1 TD

Hollins: 8 catches, 147 yards, 1 TD

 

Totals yardage: 4,354

Total Passing TDs: 34
 

 

Again, this is the “way-too-early thoughts of a guy kinda working while missing football” predictions. Hopefully they are even better but time will tell.

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52 minutes ago, Lost said:

Your projections would make 2024 statistically Josh Allen's best season for total yardage.   I mean I would love for him to make the 5K club sooner than later but sadly I feel like the Bills may try and lean into the run game even more this season.   All the big bodied receivers we got may just have been an attempt to beef up the run blocking scheme as much if not more than improving our pass catching group.  I'm expecting the total passing yards this season to be in the 3900-4200 range with Kincaid probably leading the way.  

 

You may be right.  Rushing yards did go up under Brady, as I recall, though mostly because Allen ran more.  We might see the pass-rush balance swing a bit to the ground game.  

 

I projected 271 yards passing/game for a 17 game season.   In 2020, Josh passed for 284 yards per game in a 16 game season.  I might be an optimistic homer but I don't think I'm entirely and unrealistically crazy.  

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43 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Shakir is going to breakout with a 1K+ season. Even if he just kept his pace up once they actually started to use him last year over the course of the season, he would have well over 900 yards for a season. He should do far more than just keep his pace up last year...he should well exceed it.

 

Kincaid likely around 900 yards, +/- 100 yards.

 

Samuel probably in the 700 range, Coleman 500-600 range

 

 

I hope you're right about Shakir breaking out and maybe he does.  

 

But so far in two seasons, he has 772 yards receiving.  I'm already guessing that he'll surpass his two year total in just one season.  I just couldn't convince myself he'd have such a huge breakout that he'll surpass 1,000. 

 

But I really want to be wrong.

 

 

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Here's my prediction:

 

Shakir: 800 yards

Samuel: 800 yards

Kincaid: 700 yards

Coleman: 650 yards

Knox: 400 yards

Cook: 400 yards

MVS: 400 yards

 

All the rest will account for about 300 or 400 more yards or so.

 

I think some are expecting a bigger year from Kincaid, but I expect the Bills to get Knox more involved and that it will be good for the offense, but eat into Kincaid's production a little.

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Shakir: 85 catches for 1150 yards, 8TD

Kincaid: 48 catches for 625 yards, 7 TD

Samuel: 55 catches, 700 yards, 5 TD

Coleman: 39 catches, 575 yards, 5 TD

Knox: 35 catches, 375 yards, 6 TD

Cook: 33 catches, 325 yards, 3 TD

MVS: 32 catches, 450 yards, 4 TD

Committee: 28 for 350 yards and 3 TD. 

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Somebody's getting 1,000 yards+.

 

With 17 games now, 59 yards per game comes out to 1,003- that's not really a huge feat anymore. It'll have to be either Kincaid, Shakir, or Keon, not sure which, but one of them will do it.

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4 minutes ago, without a drought said:

I can see Coleman having a better rookie year than Shakir


If he’s allowed to play, certainly. 
 

Shakir had 20 targets in his entire rookie regular season. 
 

That’s pathetic. 
 

 

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I would not be shocked in Kincaid gets 900 to 1000 yards. And I would not be shocked if Coleman doesn't take off and ends up with just 300-400. I'm not saying he'll bust but maybe take some time to get acclimated at this level.

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42 minutes ago, 947 said:

Somebody's getting 1,000 yards+.

 

With 17 games now, 59 yards per game comes out to 1,003- that's not really a huge feat anymore. It'll have to be either Kincaid, Shakir, or Keon, not sure which, but one of them will do it.

 

I was torn with this.  1,000 yards for any of these guys seems like a big feat given their histories.  

 

But it's possible that one of them emerges as Josh's favorite target.  That guy could break 1,000.  As you point out, 59 yards per  game is not a huge lift for someone getting targets.  

 

I just don't know which guy will emerge as The Guy.  Nor am I totally convinced any of them will.  For those reasons, I projected a more egalitarian distribution with no thousand-yarder.    

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Yeah that's the "in aggregate" "stop the run with numbers"  mindset.

 

The reality is that the reason that "difference makers" make-a-difference is because they produce both volume AND do it more efficiently(less snaps or routes run needed).

 

It's easy to just say "Curtis Samuel and Chase Claypool will produce this many yards".  

 

The problem is........Diggs is a career 8.5 yards per target guy.    

 

Samuel and Claypool are around 7.1 yards per target in their career.

 

That's why they aren't stars.

 

So to produce the same combined yardage they gotta' run more routes and play more snaps than Diggs did to do so.

 

Same problem with replacing Gabe Davis with Coleman and MVS.

 

MVS is less efficient than Gabe over his career and coming off a real downer that actually indicates he may be washed altogether.

 

Coleman had a horrible 1.74 yards per route run in college last season.    Guys like Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison averaged more than TWICE that.  

 

To further  put that in perspective, Tyreek Hill averaged 3.87 yards per route run in the actual NFL last year.   

 

At the same time as expecting miraculous efficiency from WR's who haven't proven that ability..........you have the Buffalo Bills setting team reception and yardage records at the TE position...........with 2 different players.

 

Which likely would require more 12 personnel..........and subsequently LESS 3 WR sets. :doh:

 

Nod if you guys are understanding the reason for skepticism yet.

 

You are predicting 17 game numbers that would probably take THESE guys 21-22 games to produce.:lol:

 

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4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I was torn with this.  1,000 yards for any of these guys seems like a big feat given their histories.  

 

But it's possible that one of them emerges as Josh's favorite target.  That guy could break 1,000.  As you point out, 59 yards per  game is not a huge lift for someone getting targets.  

 

I just don't know which guy will emerge as The Guy.  Nor am I totally convinced any of them will.  For those reasons, I projected a more egalitarian distribution with no thousand-yarder.    

 

Not really...If you simply take Shakir's totals once he became an actual part of the offense starting week 6 against the Patriots and extrapolate his totals from then to week 17 over the full season, he would have almost 900 yards receiving without doing anything more than he did over the last 11 games of last season for a full season. 

 

First 6 games he had 4 catches for 40 yards. Last 11 games he had 35 catches for 571 yards. Extrapolate that last 11 game stretch over a full season and you get 54 catches for 882 yards.  That's just doing what he did last year. Only had 5 targets or more 3 times in a game all year...6 twice and 5 once. All the others were 4 or less, including several with 2 or 1.

 

His season high snap percentage was 37% twice in back to back weeks against the Broncos and Jets and he had 9 games with 20% or less, including 6 games with 14% or less and 2 games in the single digits.  He will get far more playing time this year.

 

It seems pretty likely Shakir will get more looks and more passes thrown his way then he did last year and he looks better and better every game.  He is going to have a breakout season, IMO. Wouldn't be surprised to see him have 1100+ yards.

Edited by Big Turk
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8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Not really...If you simply take Shakir's totals once he became an actual part of the offense starting week 6 against the Patriots and extrapolate his totals from then to week 17 over the full season, he would have almost 900 yards receiving without doing anything more than he did over the last 11 games of last season for a full season. 

 

First 6 games he had 4 catches for 40 yards. Last 11 games he had 35 catches for 571 yards. Extrapolate that last 11 game stretch over a full season and you get 54 catches for 882 yards.  That's just doing what he did last year. Only had 5 targets or more 3 teams in a game all year...6 twice and 5 once. All the others were 4 or less, including several with 2 or 1.

 

It seems pretty likely Shakir will get more looks and more passes thrown his way then he did last year and he looks better and better every game.  He is going to have a breakout season, IMO. Wouldn't be surprised to see him have 1100+ yards.

I wanna say Kincaid had a similar statistical trend. I expect one of these guys to go over 1000, which isn't that hard to do in today's NFL.

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