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I'm so sick of hearing about Josh Allen's Turnovers (fun article)


Logic

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6 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Allen is amazing! Best QB in Bills history and is on pace to be a HOF player.

 

But he turns the ball over too much. Sorry if you don't believe that but it's true. He leads the league in turnovers since he came into the league. Granted that is a bit misleading too as many other worse players simply are not playing over that time. 

 

Everything in the OP is true. Allen makes all those amazing plays. Problem is there is no relative weighting in your argument. One INT is not canceled by one great play or one TD. Allen probably needs to make three, four, or more great plays to overcome one turnover. The turnover ratio in a game is still one of the most predictive stats in NFL. Lose the turnover battle and most of the time you lose the game. 

 

One other point not brought up. Red zone turnovers. I think Allen didn't have a red zone turnover for what his first 3 years. He was incredible in the redzone. However, he has had several in the last two years. 

 

I'm not advocating he lose his aggressive nature. But four less picks this year might be the difference between another division title or missing the playoffs.

 

I think this is the point a lot of people miss... relative to his peers, the rate at which Josh makes great plays far exceeds how often he turns the ball over.

 

He does things that we (and others) believe are routine for him. In reality those things are extraordinary and nobody else can do them and if they can, not as regularly as Josh Allen can. 

Edited by JGMcD2
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26 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

We find out a lot about both McDermott and Allen this year. 

We know all about McDermott. 13 seconds and Hamlin incident define him. He is by all accounts a good human being and a good leader. He just fails as a coach in the most inopportune times.  As anyone, he can still rewrite the script but only a Lombardi will change that 

 

As for Allen you are correct. He will need to elevate the game of most of the other players on offense.  He is going to need to be patient with Brady and others as they fit this group together. His 110 reception security blanket is gone.  He needs to be patient and get the ball to guys in position to make plays. He needs to run less and save his body for the late season and playoffs.  

 

 

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He had a handful that he would want back.  More you rely on your Qb to make plays more turnovers you have.  Manning and Brees dealt with this push and pull over their careers. Years they won it all their offenses were balanced and defenses made plays.  Having a more balanced offense and team decreases the feeling for Allen to carry the team on his back.   

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12 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

We know all about McDermott. 13 seconds and Hamlin incident define him. He is by all accounts a good human being and a good leader. He just fails as a coach in the most inopportune times.  As anyone, he can still rewrite the script but only a Lombardi will change that 

 

As for Allen you are correct. He will need to elevate the game of most of the other players on offense.  He is going to need to be patient with Brady and others as they fit this group together. His 110 reception security blanket is gone.  He needs to be patient and get the ball to guys in position to make plays. He needs to run less and save his body for the late season and playoffs.  

 

 

I could easily say the players don’t know how to finish on defense. There’s also many examples of leadership on defense getting beat in big moments. That’s why I say we will find out a lot about McDermott. McDermott is building a new core on defense. Can he continue to have a top ranked regular season defense? Will he continue to have issues getting his defense to perform in the playoffs? There’s a lot we will find out about McDermott.

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2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Allen was great, but Mahomes matched him. 

 

Nah. Allen turned Gabe Davis into a superstar that game while Mahomes was tossing a slant to Tyreek Hill that he ran for a 60 yard TD. Mahomes had two GOATs on the field with him and a GOAT on the sidelines. Allen had... himself. Mahomes played an amazing game but Allen played otherworldly.

 

Edited by HappyDays
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4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Nah. Allen turned Gabe Davis into a superstar that game while Mahomes was tossing a slant to Tyreek Hill that he ran for a 60 yard TD. Mahomes had two GOATs on the field with him and a GOAT on the sidelines. Allen had... himself. Mahomes played an amazing game but Allen played otherworldly.

 

Davis was running wide open on almost every catch. Defensive break downs all game. 

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4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Davis was running wide open on almost every catch. Defensive break downs all game. 

 

The 70 yard bazooka over the top of the defense wasn't really a defensive breakdown. That is a spot on the field most defenses aren't thinking about... but Allen draws new lines on the field.

 

I don't recall Mahomes dodging a free rusher on 4th down and somehow turning the corner to scramble for a 1st down just to keep the game alive.

 

Like I said Mahomes played amazing. But let's consider the degree of difficulty here.

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6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The 70 yard bazooka over the top of the defense wasn't really a defensive breakdown. That is a spot on the field most defenses aren't thinking about... but Allen draws new lines on the field.

 

I don't recall Mahomes dodging a free rusher on 4th down and somehow turning the corner to scramble for a 1st down just to keep the game alive.

 

Like I said Mahomes played amazing. But let's consider the degree of difficulty here.

Davis had a great game is all I’m saying.  He was running great routes.
 

Mahomes did make plays with his legs, especially the first TD drive.

 

 

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15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's not lazy.

 

And you're spinning like crazy.

 

Yes, if you go to other stats, Josh is crazy good. Overall, that's what he is, he's crazy good. Game-changing plays, whatever. He's fantastic.

 

But that doesn't mean he didn't have too many INTs the last year or two. Most particularly last year.

 

You don't want to have an INT % much over 2.0. Josh last year had a 3.1%. Way too high. Third-highest percentage in the league. Yes, a few others were too high also. But that doesn't make Josh being even higher than the guys you mentioned any more acceptable.

 

Josh was 3.1%. Much too high. Tua was 2.5%. Purdy too. Still too high, but not nearly as bad. Mahomes was 2.3%, still a bit high, but awful.

 

It was a problem. Josh admits it.

 

No question Josh needs to reduce his turnovers, and I think he should be able to do that this year (at least a bit). Last year he dealt with the changing of his OC mid-season, players with low catch percentages, and whatever was going on with Stefon (disappearing in the last 10 games of the season). In his first 5 years, he averaged 16 turnovers per season. Last year he had 22. I think he can bring that number down again.

 

Look, we all want to see Josh improve on that, but that is not the point of the debate. The issue is that people are using his interception numbers to try and say he isn't that great, or not in Mahomes Category at least, or whatever ax they have to grind.

 

And yes, interception percentage is one stat, but more often, it seems people use TD/INT ratio as a bigger indicator. And over the last 5 years, only Rodgers (with a crazy 5.6 to 1 ratio), Brady (3.4 to 1), Mahomes (3.3 to 1), and Hurts (3.2 to 1) had a better ratio than Josh at 3.05 to 1.

 

But, we also have to factor in that interceptions do not equal the same amount of points that TDs do (because the opposing team does not score a TD after every turnover). The following article shows (via 4 or 5 different groups that tried to figure out how many points a turnover equates to) that a turnover generally averages to a 4-point swing (or each turnover would be -4 points for a QB).

 

https://sportsratings.typepad.com/college_football/2010/11/how-many-points-is-a-turnover-worth-survey-of-the-literature.html

 

So, if we compare points off TDs vs. points off turnovers (on average), here are the top 15 QBs with the most plus points over the last 5 years (subtracting their INTs at 4 points each from their TDs). [Also, I prorated the following QBs who only played 4 of those years to a 5th year---Rodgers, Brady, Prescott, Stafford, Herbert, Hurts, and Burrow).

 

Allen 990+ points

Rodgers 928+ 

Herbert 883+ 

Mahomes 877+ 

Brady 833+ 

Prescott 799+ 

Hurts 775+ 

Burrow 751+ 

Goff 728+ 

Carr 714+ 

Jackson 700+ 

Cousins 677+ 

Murray 670+ 

Wilson 667+ 

Stafford 663+ 

 

Despite the interceptions, Josh is still outscoring everyone. Now, this is on interceptions only, if you add fumbles, it will change a bit. I'm not going to go into everyone's numbers, but if we include fumbles for a few of the top guys, it looks like this:

 

Rodgers +878 points

Allen +786

Herbert +778

Mahomes +769

Brady +748

Burrow +641

Jackson +536

 

So, even with fumbles, only Aaron Rodgers has scored more than Josh over the last 5 years after factoring in -4 for each turnover (INTs and fumbles). So, of course turnovers hurt and Josh needs to clean some of that up. But, when you include TD totals (and don't look at the turnovers in a vacuum), he is still outperforming almost every QB in the league as far as scoring points.

 

[Obviously these numbers aren't exact, as I am pro-rating some players to a 5th year, and I didn't add up every QBs game totals, but went by seasons---for instance, Patrick Mahomes has played two fewer games than Josh over the last 5 years...but I think it still makes the point.]

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I wonder how different the narrative around Josh would be if he was a stat chaser. 

 

He had 5+ turnovers last year on plays that either did not hurt us (arm punts) or he had no other choice (last play of Patriots game or 4th down against Dolphins). 

 

It's like Josh has a switch in his head to turn on 100% HERO BALL when the situation calls for it and he couldn't care less if it's a turnover that hurts his MVP chances.

 

I realize other QBs will throw arm punt INTs or have a hail mary intercepted, but nobody is remotely close to the number of turnovers Josh has on plays like that.

 

Imagine if Josh threw the ball away or ate a sack on 4th down like Lamar '2x MVP' Jackson did in a miserable 10-17 loss to the Steelers this season. Wouldn't help the Bills at all but would've helped his personal turnover number. 

 

4th & 2 at PIT 23

(0:13 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to Z.Flowers [C.Holcomb].

 

4th & 7 at BAL 28

(0:15 - 4th) (Shotgun) L.Jackson sacked at BLT 22 for -6 yards (T.Watt). PENALTY on PIT-T.Watt, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

 

Or if he wanted to pad yardage late in the 4th Q down multiple scores like MVP hopeful Brock Purdy. 49ers were down 31-17 with 12 seconds left and Purdy threw back to back dump offs for 69 yards. The next time Josh does something like that would be the first of his career. 

 

1st & 10 at SF 20

(0:12 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to C.McCaffrey pushed ob at SF 48 for 28 yards (J.Tufele).

 

1st & 10 at SF 48

(0:04 - 4th) (Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short right to R.McCloud pushed ob at CIN 11 for 41 yards (D.Hill). Penalty on SF-S.Burford, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

 

If Josh cared about stats he would've had at least 5 fewer turnovers and at least 100+ yards of garbage time dumpoffs. 

 

Everything else remaining the same do you think he wins MVP last year? 

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, Logic said:




I um...didn't write this article. Just re-posting something I found online. Thanks though.

I believe it was specifically written in response to NFL Twitter (where the article's author predominately operates), where ANY discussion of Josh Allen's greatness as a player is immediately met by a chorus of people going "but his interceptions!". I don't think the author's intent is to say that Josh doesn't need to cut down on the picks, but rather that using his high interception numbers as a justification for denying that he's a great player (which a TON of people do on Twitter and elsewhere) is unreasonable, because it ignores all the other ways in which he is great (some of which the author points out).

 

Thank you for this.   You are a forehead.   Beware the brick walls.   There are many invested in the “my criticism of Allen shows how smart I am” club.   “He farts more than Mahomes whether you all want to admit it or not” is coming soon.   

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4 hours ago, folz said:

 

No question Josh needs to reduce his turnovers, and I think he should be able to do that this year (at least a bit). Last year he dealt with the changing of his OC mid-season, players with low catch percentages, and whatever was going on with Stefon (disappearing in the last 10 games of the season). In his first 5 years, he averaged 16 turnovers per season. Last year he had 22. I think he can bring that number down again.

 

Look, we all want to see Josh improve on that, but that is not the point of the debate. The issue is that people are using his interception numbers to try and say he isn't that great, or not in Mahomes Category at least, or whatever ax they have to grind.

 

And yes, interception percentage is one stat, but more often, it seems people use TD/INT ratio as a bigger indicator. And over the last 5 years, only Rodgers (with a crazy 5.6 to 1 ratio), Brady (3.4 to 1), Mahomes (3.3 to 1), and Hurts (3.2 to 1) had a better ratio than Josh at 3.05 to 1.

 

But, we also have to factor in that interceptions do not equal the same amount of points that TDs do (because the opposing team does not score a TD after every turnover). The following article shows (via 4 or 5 different groups that tried to figure out how many points a turnover equates to) that a turnover generally averages to a 4-point swing (or each turnover would be -4 points for a QB).

 

https://sportsratings.typepad.com/college_football/2010/11/how-many-points-is-a-turnover-worth-survey-of-the-literature.html

 

So, if we compare points off TDs vs. points off turnovers (on average), here are the top 15 QBs with the most plus points over the last 5 years (subtracting their INTs at 4 points each from their TDs). [Also, I prorated the following QBs who only played 4 of those years to a 5th year---Rodgers, Brady, Prescott, Stafford, Herbert, Hurts, and Burrow).

 

Allen 990+ points

Rodgers 928+ 

Herbert 883+ 

Mahomes 877+ 

Brady 833+ 

Prescott 799+ 

Hurts 775+ 

Burrow 751+ 

Goff 728+ 

Carr 714+ 

Jackson 700+ 

Cousins 677+ 

Murray 670+ 

Wilson 667+ 

Stafford 663+ 

 

Despite the interceptions, Josh is still outscoring everyone. Now, this is on interceptions only, if you add fumbles, it will change a bit. I'm not going to go into everyone's numbers, but if we include fumbles for a few of the top guys, it looks like this:

 

Rodgers +878 points

Allen +786

Herbert +778

Mahomes +769

Brady +748

Burrow +641

Jackson +536

 

So, even with fumbles, only Aaron Rodgers has scored more than Josh over the last 5 years after factoring in -4 for each turnover (INTs and fumbles). So, of course turnovers hurt and Josh needs to clean some of that up. But, when you include TD totals (and don't look at the turnovers in a vacuum), he is still outperforming almost every QB in the league as far as scoring points.

 

[Obviously these numbers aren't exact, as I am pro-rating some players to a 5th year, and I didn't add up every QBs game totals, but went by seasons---for instance, Patrick Mahomes has played two fewer games than Josh over the last 5 years...but I think it still makes the point.]

Hey Folz:  All day long I've been thinking about getting into this thread, because I've always been a big believer that it's imperative that Allen needs to reduce his INTs.   In my head, I decided that turnovers average someplace around a four-point swing, and those four points can be the difference between a win and a loss in maybe a couple games a year.  

 

And then I read your post.  First, I pat myself on the back, because apparently the article you cite backs up my four-point estimate.  But second, your analysis of point production net of INTs (with or without fumbles) shuts me up.  His point production is so far in the stratosphere that the INTs are negated.  I think you're right.   (It's sort of like managers putting up with their star's strikeouts when he's crushing 50 dingers.)  

 

Still, I'm not completely convinced.  I've been arguing for years that Josh always will win less until he gets his passer rating up where the best ratings are.   He's several points behind the best passer ratings.  Why?   Because his completion percentage is lower, and his TD to INT ratio is lower.   Why are they both lower?  Same reason - he's not as good a decision maker as he needs to be.  Josh needs to take the hig percentage throws over the high risk/high reward throws.  When he does that, he'll be otherworldly. 

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5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Davis was running wide open on almost every catch. Defensive break downs all game. 


KC secondary was missing a few starters but no one wants to hear that. Anyway it’s been 3 seasons and several heartaches ago let’s forget that game. 

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48 minutes ago, 90sBills said:


KC secondary was missing a few starters but no one wants to hear that. Anyway it’s been 3 seasons and several heartaches ago let’s forget that game. 

 

So to be clear, your opinion is that missing two starting secondary players is an equal handicap to missing one starting secondary player (Tre White, which I guess we have to conveniently forget about for the purpose of this discussion) and not having Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce on the field.

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Hey Folz:  All day long I've been thinking about getting into this thread, because I've always been a big believer that it's imperative that Allen needs to reduce his INTs.   In my head, I decided that turnovers average someplace around a four-point swing, and those four points can be the difference between a win and a loss in maybe a couple games a year.  

 

And then I read your post.  First, I pat myself on the back, because apparently the article you cite backs up my four-point estimate.  But second, your analysis of point production net of INTs (with or without fumbles) shuts me up.  His point production is so far in the stratosphere that the INTs are negated.  I think you're right.   (It's sort of like managers putting up with their star's strikeouts when he's crushing 50 dingers.)  

 

Still, I'm not completely convinced.  I've been arguing for years that Josh always will win less until he gets his passer rating up where the best ratings are.   He's several points behind the best passer ratings.  Why?   Because his completion percentage is lower, and his TD to INT ratio is lower.   Why are they both lower?  Same reason - he's not as good a decision maker as he needs to be.  Josh needs to take the hig percentage throws over the high risk/high reward throws.  When he does that, he'll be otherworldly. 

 

I think he is improving on where his eyes go on plays and I think you have to have the right OC that can help encourage Allen to use the right progressions and outlets.

 

Then the incredible things only he can do when things break down or he sees a defensive gap are just gravy.

 

The last few years he has really evolved his game. He had to as the book on him was take away his deep reads and favorite deep targets, and force him to hold onto the ball and into mistakes.

 

It did not help that our O-Line were mostly castoffs and misfits outside of Morse and Dawkins. They constantly leaked pressures so it was only natural that they would force Allen off his spot and into a scramble drill where he was usually looking deep.

 

Also, Allen was a raw project out of Wyoming so the emphasis should have been to shore up his protection as new QBs always take longer to process and hold onto the ball longer.

 

Good thing Allen does have wheels.

 

I feel better about out interior line, but not sold yet that we have our answer at RT considering the injuries and inconsistent play there.

 

Having an OC that knows how to help Allen play within a framework, to use the right progressions, leverage more of their offensive weapons, and lean into the run will only help accelerate his growth and the QBR along with it without breaking the amazing things he can only do.

 

Allen sometimes really struggles putting touch on his cannon arm and putting the ball in the right place in shorter throws for RAC, but I think he is working on that quite a bit and did show some improvement last year.

 

To hit those screens, wheels, and outlets you don't need a cannon arm rather it is more about touch, timing, and placement. Does not hurt to target receivers that have a great catch radius too.

 

 

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So to be clear, your opinion is that missing two starting secondary players is an equal handicap to missing one starting secondary player (Tre White, which I guess we have to conveniently forget about for the purpose of this discussion) and not having Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce on the field.


My opinion is KC missing their secondary leader in Mathieu led to alot of coverage miscommunications that resulted in Gabe looking like a hof wr in that game. A performance he was never able to duplicate during his time here. Despite those injuries KC was able to overcome and won that game. Much like Cincy overcoming their OL injuries and beat us in their playoff game here. On the flip side, it’s apparently impossible for us to win any big playoff games because of injuries according to posters. That was my point. 

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15 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Yep. People love to ignore those games, of which he usually has a couple a year. And usually it's those losses that mean we lose out on the top seed.

 

 

It's weird how they just can't bring themselves to criticize the guy.

 

He has an average salary of $43 mill per year.  He'll live.  

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