Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same

[Logic]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

IT'S A TRICK!

 

It's true, but meaningless; what big-bodied WR catch meister WR has Allen had the opportunity to form a connection with? The only one I can think of is 2018 Fat Kelvin, who, as I noted above, was RIP at the time with the only pass he was interested in being preceded by "puff, puff,..."  He had the lowest catch rate in the league at the point where we released him, commentators had been noting his lack of effort on the field for weeks, and neither the Mahomes-led Chiefs nor the Giants 

 

@Logic, you started this out by stating "Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation."  When, other than rookie year with Fat Kelvin, in Josh's 6 years in the league, has he played with "big bodied WR", whether they struggle with separation or not?

Yes, I grant that he hasn't had many to work with.

The one that he most recently HAS had to work with was Gabe Davis. Davis's limited route variety, stiffness, and lack of separation ability all led to his being thrown to less and less, until by the end of last year he was barely a meaningful part of the passing game at all. 

My contention is that if we KNOW Josh does well with the fast, shifty guys, and we know that he has not historically demonstrated the same success with bigger guys -- albeit in a smaller sample size, and albeit with a less impressive group of players overall -- then why take on this experiment and this change in philosophy now? 

After we just saw his connection with big, limited, non-separating Gabe Davis deteriorate to the point of non-existence, why go back to the well of that type of WR?

[Yobogoya!]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

When the Bills decided to go young and start a roster reset, I had hope that Beane was gonna try to do things differently, since the old way he was doing things didn't get the Bills over the hump. They've been hitting too man singles and doubles over the years and not enough home runs. Instead, he appears to be doing things exactly the same way this time around. 

They don’t call it a “process” for nothing. 

Only question is whether you still trust it at this point… But love em or hate em, McBeane sure do stick to it. 

[Allen2Moulds]

This draft felt to me, like when a team plays not to lose. Overly conservative in my opinion. Agree with everything the OP said. 

 

Thomas was there for the taking in the 1st, and we made no attempt to make a small trade up to get him. Instead, we gift wrap KC the fastest WR in the draft, and proceed to draft one of the slowest. And it's not just that he ran a 4,61, at the combine, that was confirmation.

 

The one thing we couldn't do against KC was separate. We all knew it was time to get you get and faster at the position. Samuel was an ok first step, but Coleman was the total head scratcher. 

 

Then day 3 rolls around, and you still have 4 or 5 decent prospects with speed, which included Troy Franklin, Tez Walker, and everyone's late round darling from UCF. What do we do, we refuse to take another shot, at the deepest position in the draft.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but this is the kind of draft that can erase a lot of the good will that was earned by drafting Allen.

[<bills4life>]

16 minutes ago, appoo said:

I guess I'm also a person who just wants my team to consistently contend. Maybe it's because I started rooting for the Bills in the early 80s, and thus spent my formative 20s in the midst of the drought and having the Rob Johnson/Dough Flutie Bills be the best teams since the SB years. 

 

At this point, I think coaching and GMs job is just to keep your roster contending for a championship, and anything after that is basically a crapshoot that's gonna come down to super specific matchups, luck, and the occasional transcendent talent coming through. 

 

This draft, the cap manuevers, and increased top 5 round picks, will keep the bills contending for another 5+ years, and that's all, I, as a fan, can ask for

Yes preserving one’s job is great. The goal should be to win the damn Super Bowl.  Let’s be clear when you are losing in the second round every year you are not contending for anything. A Josh allen led team should be playing in afc championship games and superbowls. I guess I was just spoiled from the bills in the 90’s.  Because those Super Bowl runs were magical.  They were truly in contention.  This team seems farther and farther from contention with each passing year. I guess I just expect more when I have a qb arguably better than Jim Kelly and most likely making the hall of fame if he stays healthy. Such a damn waste. It’s criminal. 

[Warcodered]

6 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yes, I grant that he hasn't had many to work with.

The one that he most recently HAS had to work with was Gabe Davis. Davis's limited route variety, stiffness, and lack of separation ability all led to his being thrown to less and less, until by the end of last year he was barely a meaningful part of the passing game at all. 

My contention is that if we KNOW Josh does well with the fast, shifty guys, and we know that he has not historically demonstrated the same success with bigger guys -- albeit in a smaller sample size, and albeit with a less impressive group of players overall -- then why take on this experiment and this change in philosophy now? 

After we just saw his connection with big, limited, non-separating Gabe Davis deteriorate to the point of non-existence, why go back to the well of that type of WR?

Except if you use Gabe as the example, when he ran in the right direction and caught the ball he was extremely effective.

[PauleeeWalnuts]

1 hour ago, KentuckyBillsFan said:

This front office will never build around Allen… and I think the biggest reason for that is Sean McDermott. 

Carolina never built around Cam either…they expect these guys to be Superman 

[SoCal Deek]

I have no idea why people don’t understand where the Bills are right now. They swung for the fences a few years ago thinking that 13 seconds had them on the doorstep. The swing and missed and now have to pay for it by rebuilding with a much younger, cheaper roster. But somehow through that, and including this draft, have now replaced the starting WR, TE, RB on offense and the MLB, S on defense. And with all of that they’re still expected to compete for a championship. It’s going to take another year. 2024 will NOT be the year. It was NEVER going to be. 

Edited April 27 by SoCal Deek

[Warcodered]

14 minutes ago, Logic said:

True. Do you grant that my statement is also true?

If so, the sum total of those two true statements would seem to be "The Bills should continue to draft smaller bodied WRs whose strengths are route running and separation. 

Adapt or die. 🤷‍♂️

Edited April 27 by Warcodered

[somnus00]

1 hour ago, appoo said:

This is liteally the opposite of both McDermott's stated offensive preference, and reality of the McDermott era

Some people just can't stop repeating an established narrative, no matter what evidence there is. The Bills have been a passing juggernaut for years, and people still saying McD is a run first coach.

[HOUSE]

I found this to be an exciting draft.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

We're back to rebuilding the foundation. We had some pretty good teams for a few years there where the foundation had already been built, and so we were able to shoot for upside with guys like Cook and Kincaid. Hopefully, we can get back to being so good we can afford to do that stuff again.

We should, the last time the bills built the foundation they were starting with who? Maybe Kyle williams? 

 

They got Allen cook Kincaid Dawkins Oliver Milano benard this go around 

[LABILLBACKER]

The #1 priority after losing Diggs/Davis was to take advantage of one of the deepest wr drafts in history.  So what do we do?  We draft the 4.61 Gauntlet King. No Thomas...no Leggette...no McConkey.  We couldn't even be bothered taking a late flier on Walker, Franklin or Rice.  It's like "Josh be-damned"....no soup for you.  I guess their forever strategy is to keep flailing around with marginal defenses and expect Josh to become God almighty.

[Buddy Hix]

Yeah, I just don’t understand the Coleman pick, which makes this draft a huge dud for me. 

[Toyo321]

8 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The #1 priority after losing Diggs/Davis was to take advantage of one of the deepest wr drafts in history.  So what do we do?  We draft the 4.61 Gauntlet King. No Thomas...no Leggette...no McConkey.  We couldn't even be bothered taking a late flier on Walker, Franklin or Rice.  It's like "Josh be-damned"....no soup for you.  I guess their forever strategy is to keep flailing around with marginal defenses and expect Josh to become God almighty.

Beane and McD are like a broken record that skips every time before the song can be finished playing.  You hope that the next time you play it again, it might miraculously somehow get the end of the song.  This sounds all too familiar to me.

 

One of these days Josh is going to wake up and throw the damn record against the wall and it will shatter into a million pieces.

 

This is the day I am hoping for because these two guys "Beane and McD" are nothing but pretenders in this league, and they are undeniably the reason this team has failed to get to Superbowl.  It sure as hell is not Josh Allens fault.

 

The day Josh gets a fresh start with a competent GM and Coach will be a day Josh can breathe a sigh of relief and so will I.  IMO.....

 

I am sick and tired of this " Trust the Process " with these two guys.   It getting so old at this point, the process has mold growing on it now.

Edited April 28 by Toyo321

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, appoo said:

This is liteally the opposite of both McDermott's stated offensive preference, and reality of the McDermott era

No it isn't, he literally told us what kind of offense he wants in 2021

 

verbatim: 'That has not been my message from Day 1, I can promise you that. If you were in the team meetings in training camp, you would know what style of offense I want. That identity needs to embody toughness.'

[TH3]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I'll start by saying that this was far from my favorite Bills draft.

I'm usually Mr Optimistic when it comes to draft classes, but I thought this year's class was just...fine. It was like if you fed Brandon Beane's draft tendencies and the Bills' needs into ChatGPT and asked it to spit out the 2024 Bills draft class. It was completely on brand, it filled the needs we all knew the team had, and it'll probably end up producing a few average players and a couple good ones.

Ho-hum. Nobody in this class makes me stand up and say "that guy's really gonna help the Bills get over the hump and win a title". 

Onto the picks:

1. Keon Coleman - I was not a fan of this pick. For a team whose WR corps needed more speed and separation, this guy made the LEAST sense to me of all the 1st/2nd round WR prospects. Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation. So adding Keon Coleman? It feels like "Square peg, meet round hole". He does have great athleticism and RAC ability for a man his size. He's also young to the position, having played football full time for only two seasons and being only 20 years old. I have concerns about his ability to play X in the NFL, and I'll believe that he's a better fit as a big slot until proven otherwise. Here's hoping I'm wrong about Coleman. The absolute ceiling I see for him is "Solid WR2". Not what I was hoping for in a star studded WR class and with a crying need at the position.

2. Cole Bishop - Looks like he should be just what the doctor ordered at safety for the Bills. He seems to be more Poyer than Hyde, in that he's at his best in the box and playing the run, and he packs a wallop when he tackles. He appears to have untapped man coverage potential, with Dalton Kincaid saying Bishop usually got the better of him 1-on-1 at Utah. He also has freaky speed for the position and a great mental disposition. Should be an easy fit in the Bills' scheme. At the VERY least, I expect him to contribute from day 1 as a dime 'backer, but I'll ultimately be surprised if he doesn't wind up starting at one of the two safety spots by midseason. 

3. Dewayne Carter - Good bull rusher, great motor, tons of experience, impeccable character. Seems like a 1T/3T 'tweener. Quickly apparent from his interviews that he's one of the smartest, most likable, easy to root for guys you'll ever see in the NFL. Should be a quality rotational tackle for the Bills and seems like, in time, he will provide quality leadership and a steadying presence on the D-line. May never be a big play guy, but may at least be a "dirty work" guy who allows others around him to thrive.

4. Ray Davis - Hard running inside guy with great vision, ability to get skinny, contact balance, and underrated breakaway ability. Had the most receiving TDs in 2023 of any SEC running back in 25 years. Should provide a nice change of pace to James Cook without the Bills necessarily losing anything in the pass game when he comes on the field. An older prospect, but I don't care, because he's a running back, and he won't be here past his first contract anyway. Another "likability" and leadership All-Star. Davis should provide steadiness and depth, but doesn't do anything that wows you, and I'm not sure he moves the needle much on offense.

5. Sedrick Van Pran - Tons of starting experience at Georgia. Has some traits reminiscent of Mitch Morse in terms of quickness, twitch, and ability on the move. Stop me if you've heard this one before -- lauded for his leadership. Should provide a good backup plan to Connor McGovern at center and/or provide competition at that position. It will not shock me if this guy is starting by year two. Seems like a great value at this point in the draft. One of my favorite picks.

5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - What do you want me to say? You didn't think the Bills would let a draft pass them by without selecting a late round special teams linebacker, did you? The room is starting to get a bit crowded with Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector, and Ulofoshio. However...the Bills lost ST stalwarts Dodsen, Matakevitch, and Neal, and needed some reinforcements there. That's what Ulo seems to be. I'll be surprised if he ever amounts to more than that, but at this point in the draft, that's what you're getting.

5. Javon Soloman - Undersized speed rusher (though he does have a great wingspan for the position) who had absolutely eye-popping production at Troy, where he out-produced Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyoira. He can be a designated pass rusher and special teams guy and can learn from his idol Von Miller, after whom he says he models his game. Very much a boom/bust prospect, with seemingly equal potential to be the steal of the draft or an outright bust. I liked this pick a lot, and I'm betting on the former over the latter.

6. Tylan Grable - What do you want me to say? Did you think the Bills were gonna let a draft go by without taking a project offensive tackle late? I don't have much to say about this guy. He's just like Tommy Doyle or Luke Tenuta before him: a developmental tackle prospect who's a long shot to make the 53-man roster. With VanDemark and Collins already in place as backup OTs, it's hard to see this guy making the roster.

6. Daequan Hardy - Special teams guy. Standout punt returner and gunner. I usually look to Bills' late round corners with excitement, because they're usually big-bodied guys with zone eyes who only dropped due to underwhelming athleticism. Hardy does not appear to fit that mold. He appears instead to be a punt return candidate and, beyond that, I'm not sure where he'd fit in. His only hope is as a nickel, but the Bills are obviously set there with Taron Johnson.

7. Travis Clayton - At least this one's fun. A guy from the International Pathways program who has never played a down of football in his life. But he's 6'7", 301 lbs and runs a 4.79. The hope is that he turns into the next Jordan Mailata. A fun story and will be fun to track, but obviously a longshot and likely a practice squad guy at best.



Overall, it was clear that leadership, maturity, and experience were high priorities for the Bills this year. Again and again, they picked guys who were team captains and lauded for their leadership abilities. Given all the leadership that walked out the door this offseason, that certainly makes sense. Again and again, they picked guys with lots of starting experience, guys who shined at the Senior Bowl, and guys who have their heads screwed on straight. Given that they will be counting on some of these guys to contribute from day one, and given that they seem to be doing a bit of a locker room reset, this also makes sense. 

The reason that I am ultimately unexcited by this year's draft class is this: I wanted the Bills to prioritize building around Josh Allen. I wanted them to either take a swing for the fences by trading up for a star receiver, or -- failing that -- to go the Packers route and draft a handful of skill position players to surround him with. If they were unable to acquire great quality, then I hoped they would at least acquire quantity. I fear that in choosing Keon Coleman, they may have failed to achieve the "quality" goal, and in refusing to draft any other receivers, they also failed to achieve the "quantity" goal. And Ray Davis is the definition of "uninspiring" at running back. He'll be a fine depth player and grind out tough yards, I'm sure, but he doesn't move the needle much on offense. Neither Coleman nor Davis seem like they upgrade the offense. Just...status quo at best.

In a year where I felt the very TOP priority was to improve on offense, I feel the Bills failed to meaningfully do so. In an offseason where I hoped they'd make a bold move or two to try to find an elite player for this offense, they failed to try. After hearing "Josh needs more weapons" for a couple years running, he now seems to have less. The WR corps seems to have regressed, and seems to lack any true downfield explosiveness or viable deep threat. 

This draft class was not a disaster, by any means. it seems FINE. Just fine. Keon Coleman doesn't scream "Alpha WR1" to me. Ray Davis seems like an average NFL backup. Cole Bishop and Javon Soloman seem to perhaps have playmaking potential on defense. Beyond that -- meh.

When the Bills decided to go young and start a roster reset, I had hope that Beane was gonna try to do things differently, since the old way he was doing things didn't get the Bills over the hump. They've been hitting too man singles and doubles over the years and not enough home runs. Instead, he appears to be doing things exactly the same way this time around. He seems to be content to collect character/culture guys, whose ceiling is "good, solid NFL player", rather than taking any risks or big swings for potential stars. He hasn't really taken those swings, to my estimation, since the Allen/Edmunds class. THAT'S why I'm disappointed in this draft class. It seems fine, solid, steady, and logical, but it doesn't seem like it'll move the needle much.

I will move on to hoping that the post June 1st money infusion brings us a quality veteran receiver and maybe a pass rusher either via free agency or trade. Failing that, it would be hard for me to conclude anything other than that it looks like the Bills are poised to take a step back this year. 2025 looks promising in terms of cap space and draft capital, but if it's gonna continue to be "business as usual" for Brandon Beane, then I'm not sure how excited I should allow myself to get for that. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Whatever dude

8 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

Beane and McD are like a broken record that skips every time before the song can be finished playing.  You hope that the next time you play it again, it might miraculously somehow get the end of the song.  This sounds all too familiar to me.

 

One of these days Josh is going to wake up and throw the damn record against the wall and it will shatter into a million pieces.

 

This is the day I am hoping for because these two guys "Beane and McD" are nothing but pretenders in this league, and they are undeniably the reason this team has failed to get to Superbowl.  It sure as hell is not Josh Allens fault.

 

The day Josh gets a fresh start with a competent GM and Coach will be a day Josh can breathe a sigh of relief and so will I.  IMO.....

 

I am sick and tired of this " Trust the Process " with these two guys.   It getting so old at this point, the process has mold growing on it now.

Good Lord….get over yourself

[LABILLBACKER]

12 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

Beane and McD are like a broken record that skips every time before the song can be finished playing.  You hope that the next time you play it again, it might miraculously somehow get the end of the song.  This sounds all too familiar to me.

 

One of these days Josh is going to wake up and throw the damn record against the wall and it will shatter into a million pieces.

 

This is the day I am hoping for because these two guys "Beane and McD" are nothing but pretenders in this league, and they are undeniably the reason this team has failed to get to Superbowl.  It sure as hell is not Josh Allens fault.

 

The day Josh gets a fresh start with a competent GM and Coach will be a day Josh can breathe a sigh of relief and so will I.  IMO.....

 

I am sick and tired of this " Trust the Process " with these two guys.   It getting so old at this point, the process has mold growing on it now.

This is what happens when you have organizational leaders who know 100% their jobs are protected for years. Sean will continue to emphasize D.   Beane will continue to de-emphasize speed wrs for Josh. God forbid we give Josh guys like Chase, Waddle etc. Keep settling for slower choir boy captains that fit your mission statement. And with all this said, Josh doesn't have the personality to confront McB.

 

Rinse....Repeat....

[Logic]

12 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Whatever dude

 

Well stated.

[DrMaxPower]

This draft was about replenishing the depth of the roster. Given the turnover and the cap situation,  they needed to fill a lot of holes. They weren't wasting picks on guys iffy to make the team. I think they add a vet wr still and that's why they only picked 1.

 

Coleman wouldn't have been my choice. Would have gone McConkey or Legette. We'll see.

 

Pretty happy with the rest though. I could honestly see everyone (the Brit on PR) making the team, which is crazy with that many picks. Also shows how much less established the roster is vs the last few years.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

The OP, and many of the folks who are contributing to this thread, begin by conceding that it was a solid draft. That's stipulated at the beginning. Did you read it, because your response is addressed to those who assert something else? And I don't see an abundance of negative emojis . . . 

 

I wasn't just responding to the OP, there are many posters on here who clearly hated the draft. Did you not read my response?