Lance Zierlein: Bills should draft 2 WR in the first 3 rounds

[gonzo1105]

32 minutes ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

Shakir is a speed slot, Samuel is not a pure outside WR, we don't have a bona fide X or Z. One pick X, one pick Z. Pretty simple. Rookie 1 starts at X over Hollins & Shorter, Rookie 2 shares snaps at Z with Samuel and some Shakir. Unless they think they can get a cheap-ish vet plug in at either X or Z post June 1 🤷‍♂️

Shorter should have been a priority FA last year not a 5th round pick. He's eminently replaceable, good practice squad option. Hollins is here for special teams unless Shorter beats him out

The game of football is not put through that lense anymore. I want two WRs just because it’s a really deep draft but the case of this guy is a boundary and this guy is a slot is a joke. There are plenty of teams in the NFL that do not have a traditional Z or X WR. The game is now about packages. You will see whoever they draft, all the WRs, Kincaid, Cook all lining up outside the numbers 

[BeastMaster]

With our need for WR help, and this class being deep at the position, I would have no issue using both picks on receivers.

 

Let McDermott work with some holes on his side of the ball for a change. It's his unit that has failed to get the job done when it matters most while having everything he asked for, so he should have to suck it up this season

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Have to agree with him.  The team obviously needed help at WR last year and that was WITH a top 10 WR already on the roster.  With Diggs gone, you can hope for Samuel to stay healthy and match 75% of that production and to have Shakir double his production and then you are theoretically almost even.   That said, you are still down the production of Davis which wasn’t great, but it’s still a pretty sizable chunk of yards and TDs.   
 

I don’t think anybody outside of Buffalo would say the Bills are in a better spot than they were at the end of last year and WR production was a major problem down the stretch. 
 

Doubling down and trying to take two guys who can play the boundaries would be a big investment, but I’d argue a necessary one. 

 

Agree on your conclusion 100%.  

 

And 100% not to pick on you @DCofNC, but I'm reading what I'll call "numbers logic" from quite a few - to me, it just doesn't work to say something to the effect of "OK, Samuel can step up and give us 75% of Diggs production and Shakir can double his production and we're even" because they're different guys.  In Samuel's best year, I believe the stats were he played 74% of the time from the slot.  I'm not sure how often Shakir has lined up outside, but I don't think it's much.  

 

So can they both be more productive, sure, but we still need those guys who pose a significant downfield threat.  It's not just a numbers game, it's a skills game.

 

I don't sense that you disagree, I just feel it's appropriate to stress that.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

Shorter should have been a priority FA last year not a 5th round pick. He's eminently replaceable, good practice squad option. Hollins is here for special teams unless Shorter beats him out

 

Hollins is going to occupy that Jake Kumerow and Trent Sherfield WR4/5 special teams ace slot. He's a nice option to toss out on the boundary for a game or two if there are injuries but he's still going to occupy one of the 5-6 WR spots. Sharkir and Samuel will also occupy spots. So really you only have 2-3 "open" WR spots and if they draft WR's at picks 28 and 60 that is going to get them to 5 WR's which is what they usually carry. If they want a WR6 they are going to feel comfortable with Shorter competing with UDFA's and a kick the tires vet. 

 

Regardless of what you personally think of Shorter the Bills regime drafted him 150 overall in the previous draft which is only two slots lower than Shakir who was drafted 148 in 2022. Shorter didn't play at all in 2023 so he effectively red shirted his rookie season and will get another off-season fully in with the team to polish up his game. I think the regime likely feels comfortable with Shorter at WR6 even if you think he's not that great they may not even carry six WR's so if they draft two high up they probably aren't burning a third pick on roster spot they may not even carry especially when they have a lot more depth needs this year than they did going into last years draft. 

 

I personally am fine with a WR6 spot being a competition between Shorter, UDFA's and a low end "kick the tires" vet. Shorter is a very raw player but he's also a massive human being at 6 foot 4 and 229 pounds with 4.55 speed. Seems to me that athletic profile can make for a good special teams player and with another year to develop may have some receiving upside in 2025. I am not really liking the idea of the Bills drafting a player to compete for a WR6 spot the team may not carry. 

[Aussie Joe]

Lance … I’ll go even harder … Two in the first 50…. Trade up in the second 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

I'm good with us grabbing a couple of WR's in the draft between the 1st and early 4th. Still, I think many people see us having added Samuel (who was almost as productive as Gabe was for us in the Commanders offense with Sam Howell as his QB) and think that is a help. They also think the other guys were taking away targets from Shakir, who proved to be a solid and sure-handed weapon down the stretch. 

 

OK, so two points here.

 

Samuel and Davis are two very different cats with different primary skillsets as WR.  Samuel is a converted running back who during his career  best year and in Washington, has taken most of his snaps from the slot.  He has the release moves and the speed to be more effective as a boundary receiver than, say, Beasley, but it's not been his primary thing.  Davis, on the other hand, just could not run those crisp routes over the middle; he lacked the quickness.  Maybe it was his ankle injuries, I don't know.  But he had the physicality and the strength to win outside and the ball tracking skills to seal the deal.

 

Bottom line: Davis production, and Samuel production, different production.  Would have added to each other great, don't replace each other.  Now maybe Shakir can become an outside threat, but he'd kind of be the first 29" armed player to pull that off.  Never say never, I guess.   He merits more targets, for sure though.

[billsfan89]

39 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

With our need for WR help, and this class being deep at the position, I would have no issue using both picks on receivers.

 

Let McDermott work with some holes on his side of the ball for a change. It's his unit that has failed to get the job done when it matters most while having everything he asked for, so he should have to suck it up this season

 

I too would be fine if they get good value at pick 60 if they "double dip" at WR. But I also don't think they should "reach" for a player at WR at pick 60. IF they draft a WR at pick 28 or thereabout I think they shouldn't ignore other areas of the roster that need help just to take a WR. After addressing WR early their need at WR while there is more so a depth need in my opinion.

 

Assuming the team has a similar amount of targets as they did last season (about 545 which was the targets the team had last year) IF The Bills targets break out like the list below then the targets available to a WR drafted at pick 60 may only be in the 40-50 range. 

 

1. Kincaid- 110 targets (20 target increase from 2023)
2. Shakir- 90 targets (doubling his targets but given that Shakir didn't start consistently playing until about 7 games into the season seems reasonable for him to take on WR2 type targets)
3. Samuel- 70 targets (seems like he will "absorb" Gabe Davis targets)
4. Rookie WR drafted at pick 28- 70 targets (seems reasonable to project a rookie to take on a bit less than half of Diggs targets)
5. Knox- 50 targets (had 36 last year and was hurt for a chunk of games 14 more seems a good estimate) 
6. Cook- 50 targets (4 less than he had last season but I think with Ty Johnson as the backup Cooks targets stay flat)
7. Hollins- 30 targets (seems like he will absorb a lot of the WR4/5 targets that went to Harty and Sherfield)
8. Ty Johnson- 30 targets (absorbing a little bit of Cooks targets as well as the targets that went to Murray/Harris/himself last year)

That gets you to 500 targets so there's only about 45 targets remaining and lets say injury hits you and you lose 50 targets for those above players you have about 95 targets but you have to figure that 35-50 of those targets are going to be absorbed by Morris, RB3 and Shorter (who will likely get more targets as players go down) which kind of leaves you with about 40-50 targets for a second drafted WR. It's a lot to spend a late 2nd round pick which can be used on a high end D-line or interior O-line prospect that may have more impact than a WR not getting a whole lot of targets. You probably could find a solid depth WR to take on 40-50 targets around pick 128. 

 

TLDR: It may not be necessary given the possible target distribution to take a second WR at pick 60. So if the value is not there at WR at pick 60 go with another need and draft a WR around pick 128 to fill that depth. 

[billsfan89]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

OK, so two points here.

 

Samuel and Davis are two very different cats with different primary skillsets as WR.  Samuel is a converted running back who during his career  best year and in Washington, has taken most of his snaps from the slot.  He has the release moves and the speed to be more effective as a boundary receiver than, say, Beasley, but it's not been his primary thing.  Davis, on the other hand, just could not run those crisp routes over the middle; he lacked the quickness.  Maybe it was his ankle injuries, I don't know.  But he had the physicality and the strength to win outside and the ball tracking skills to seal the deal.

 

Bottom line: Davis production, and Samuel production, different production.  Would have added to each other great, don't replace each other.  Now maybe Shakir can become an outside threat, but he'd kind of be the first 29" armed player to pull that off.  Never say never, I guess.   He merits more targets, for sure though.

 

I think they likely view Shakir and Samuel splitting time at the slot and outside. Just my two cents but I don't think they are going to use Shakir or Samuel as a WR4 and draft two WR's picks 28 and 60 to play most of the boundary snaps. Shakir is simply too good to not be a primary slot WR and I doubt an organization like the Bills are going to pay Samuel 8-10 million a season for 3 years to be a gadget WR4. It would be insanely foolish to spend so much money on a Deonte Harty replacement. I do think they are going WR at or around pick 28 to have a WR that's going primarily to play on the boundary while Shakir and Samuel split the other boundary snaps. 

Edited April 19 by billsfan89

[H2o]

25 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

OK, so two points here.

 

Samuel and Davis are two very different cats with different primary skillsets as WR.  Samuel is a converted running back who during his career  best year and in Washington, has taken most of his snaps from the slot.  He has the release moves and the speed to be more effective as a boundary receiver than, say, Beasley, but it's not been his primary thing.  Davis, on the other hand, just could not run those crisp routes over the middle; he lacked the quickness.  Maybe it was his ankle injuries, I don't know.  But he had the physicality and the strength to win outside and the ball tracking skills to seal the deal.

 

Bottom line: Davis production, and Samuel production, different production.  Would have added to each other great, don't replace each other.  Now maybe Shakir can become an outside threat, but he'd kind of be the first 29" armed player to pull that off.  Never say never, I guess.   He merits more targets, for sure though.

I don't really worry about all of the measurements when it comes to people making plays. If a guy can shake his defender, and Josh can throw an accurate ball, then the length of a ring finger added to an arm isn't that much of a difference. I think people get too caught up on the measurement of every arm, toe, and eyelash. I don't think that small of a talking point is truly relevant if the guy is a twitchy, solid route runner with excellent hands. I do think our WR situation pushes Shakir to the outside more often than previously seen, but I think this year will be more of a committee than in years before as well.

 

I understand Davis and Samuel are different people, with different responsibilities. I just think that Brady will be able to utilize Samuel better than anyone else has and that Josh will be the best QB he's ever had slinging him the rock. I think that Samuel will see career highs in this offense if he stays healthy.

 

I'm still all for drafting two WR's. Legette and Corley. Legette and Walker. Legette and Rice. Legette and McCaffrey. Mitchell and Corley. Mitchell and Walker. Mitchell and Rice. Mitchell and McCaffrey. Franklin and another guy. Worthy and whoever. We just need to make sure JA17 has some quality options at WR outside of the ones we have now. 

Edited April 19 by H2o

[Beck Water]

19 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I think they likely view Shakir and Samuel splitting time at the slot and outside. Just my two cents but I don't think they are going to use Shakir or Samuel as a WR4 and draft two WR's picks 28 and 60 to play most of the boundary snaps. Shakir is simply too good to not be a primary slot WR and I doubt an organization like the Bills are going to pay Samuel 8-10 million a season for 3 years to be a gadget WR4. It would be insanely foolish to spend so much money on a Deonte Harty replacement. I do think they are going WR at or around pick 28 to have a WR that's going primarily to play on the boundary while Shakir and Samuel split the other boundary snaps. 

 

Question: How many of his snaps did Shakir play from the slot last year?  Someone here must know.

 

I don't think the Bills are planning to use Samuel as a "gadget WR4".  I think they intend him to split his snaps between the slot (primary) and outside.

 

I don't think we disagree.  My primary point was just that I read a lot of people writing as though Shakir and/or Samuel can simply replace Davis, and while they can both potentially increase their production from what they had last season, they're not going to replace Davis role or the production that came from Davis filling that role.

 

Shakir overall had 52% of the offensive snaps last season, but he had more like 30% during the first half of the season, and 70% during the 2nd half.

Samuel had ~ half the offensive snaps for Washington through the entire season.  During his best season (2020) he had 68%.

 

[Ralonzo]

5 hours ago, Beck Water said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/nfl-total-access-should-the-bills-draft-two-receivers-in-the-first-three-rounds

Be nice if he'd explain how the Bills get a draft pick in the 3rd round.

 

Atlanta trades #43, #74, #109 for #28 and #128 to draft Penix?

[Mark Vader]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

Agreed.

Even BEFORE Diggs left town, everyone in the world said "the Bills need to get more help for Josh". 

Then we shipped a 100 catch, 1,400 yard a year guy out of town, and Gabe Davis -- who, say what you want about him, scored a lot of touchdowns for this team -- is gone.

Now, when I mention double-dipping in rounds 1 and 2 at WR, I get a lot of pushback and people saying "The Bills have other needs!".

But...if the Bills needed to add a receiver BEFORE Diggs and Davis left town, they DAMNED sure need to add TWO of them now!

I understand the arguments for improving the defense, but to me, nothing trumps surrounding our franchise QB with as much weaponry as possible in terms of importance. Let's end this "Bills don't give Allen enough help" narrative once and for all. 

This is why I was hoping that the Bills had tried to sign another veteran WR. Getting Samuel was good, but if they also pursued a player like Van Jefferson or Donovan Peoples-Jones, the wide receiver group would be more stable.

 

If they want to draft two receivers early, fine. I just don't expect huge things from rookie players right away.

[TheBeaneBandit]

20 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Atlanta trades #43, #74, #109 for #28 and #128 to draft Penix?

🤔I'm kinda listening here.... with those pics we could creep up a little for the right players too if we had to move around some.

[Dr. Who]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think anyone believes that the Bills are all set at WR.  To me, they need 2, but that won’t solve all of their problems by itself.  So, I feel a modest down year coming.  Get at least 1 receiver, maybe 2 if they are BPA in 1st and 2nd, but don’t expect that will solve the problems of being paper thin on defense this year.

 

The thing I want to avoid is trading next year’s early picks.  They are set up well to get competitive again next year - don’t give those picks away.

Nope, that won't work if you want 2 early WR picks, imo. Even if you stick at #28 or trade back, #60 is not a good spot. There will be a run on WRs starting at the top of the second and petering out somewhere in the mid-forties. Have to move up, and you can get pretty high up from #60 with one of those 2025 seconds.

3 hours ago, yall said:

Get me two wide receivers in the first three rounds, and McDermott can have defense for the rest of the draft.

You need a RB2 somewhere in the draft, and it would be foolish not to pick up OL depth. 

[QLBillsFan]

4 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Kincaid, Samuel, and Shakir will all be better which is a dang solid core. Just add a guy in the draft and move on.

I’m on the same page and we are in the minority for sure. Add in Cook and Knox and I’m not sure the 2nd WR gets enough targets. With real needs at edge, safety, cb, rb, ol depth I’m not sure that’s the best way to go.
 

Unless the board just falls the Bills way and they can get Legette/Mitchell/ Pearsall for example. I think too many other needs and only so many targets. Does the 2nd WR get more snaps than Samuel or Shakir? I just don’t see it. 

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Agree on your conclusion 100%.  

 

And 100% not to pick on you @DCofNC, but I'm reading what I'll call "numbers logic" from quite a few - to me, it just doesn't work to say something to the effect of "OK, Samuel can step up and give us 75% of Diggs production and Shakir can double his production and we're even" because they're different guys.  In Samuel's best year, I believe the stats were he played 74% of the time from the slot.  I'm not sure how often Shakir has lined up outside, but I don't think it's much.  

 

So can they both be more productive, sure, but we still need those guys who pose a significant downfield threat.  It's not just a numbers game, it's a skills game.

 

I don't sense that you disagree, I just feel it's appropriate to stress that.

Agreed completely.   I think both are similar to Diggs in that they CAN play outside, but are better served inside.   Diggs is great from the slot and really good outside, but when he’s the only thing ya got..  now they have nobody of starting quality that’s truly an outside guy.

[OldTimer1960]

27 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Nope, that won't work if you want 2 early WR picks, imo. Even if you stick at #28 or trade back, #60 is not a good spot. There will be a run on WRs starting at the top of the second and petering out somewhere in the mid-forties. Have to move up, and you can get pretty high up from #60 with one of those 2025 seconds.

You need a RB2 somewhere in the draft, and it would be foolish not to pick up OL depth. 

I’m flexible at 60 - if they don’t like the WR pick another position.  My point is - accept a bit of step back and get good players.  I’m not forcing WR in any round this year.

[Warriorspikes51]

 

1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Atlanta trades #43, #74, #109 for #28 and #128 to draft Penix?

I wouldn’t take that deal.
43 is too far down  

ATL can keep 74 and 109

BUF adds Dawson Knox.

ATL adds Kyle Pitts 😆

[PonyBoy]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

Can someone please walk me through this desire to use to high picks on a wide receiver?  We currently have 4 pass catchers we are comfortable with, and opportunities at other positions.  I am fully on board with receiver in the first two rounds, but only the one.  Who is this second receiver going to replace on the field.   1st rounder, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox. You could also argue Shorter gets a crack.  
 

I’d much rather see us try to get someone that can push for the FS, RG, HB2, and DL depth than a 6th pass catcher 

 

Let Allen create the next Diva WR, not the other way around. 

 

When OC Brady came in the ball got spread around including RB's and the wins came. 

Behind closed doors probably final straw for Diggs.

 

To anyone who's played basketball on this board, it's no fun playing with a point guard who shoots all the time. Score sometimes yes, but distributing the ball is what makes teams win.

 

Josh is our point guard! 

Let him distribute & score when needed. 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

BTJ & XL

 

send it.