Does Beane have anymore significant moves left in his bag of tricks?

[Nephilim17]

If a couple weeks ago you asked a lot of us if we'd be good with Beane getting us cap compliant and resigning Jones and getting Samuel and losing Morse and Poyer I think many would've taken it.

I would have.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

That's pretty much the point.  What we've signed are more support type WRs, not anything that's going to solve the problem we have at WR.  

 

Again, not sure how we avoid being forced to take a WR with our 28th.  ... barring  slight trade up or down.  

 

Samuel's a decent signing, but there's the typical overreaction to it as well.  

 

As usual, nothing we do or say changes anything, we'll see how it shakes out.  

 

 

 

 

We don't have a problem at WR, especially now. We have a chance to raise production if we can somehow bring in another #1. But we don't have a problem, not with Allen throwing to Diggs, a second-year Kincaid and the two new additions.

 

We were 4th in passing yards and 7th in passing TDs. That's not a problem. Certainly there's room for improvement, no question, and in fact most of us do think they're likely to go WR very early in the draft.

 

Our pass catchers were as good as KC's last year. Did they have "a problem"? We don't either. Gabe's loss has probably been just about made up for with the new FAs, IMO.

 

The Bills teams with Beasley and Sanders and Brown, the guys you're referring to as "support type WRs", had terrific passing attacks. If we win the coin flip in the 13 seconds game, we'd've won it. They weren't stopping us.

 

Samuel's a good signing, not a decent one. He had Beasley / Sanders / Brown type production with crap QBs throwing to him, playing across from McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Gotta admit, I hadn't realized he'd run a 4.31 40. The guy can fly.

 

Very much agreed we fans don't change things. We'll see what actually happens down the road. Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate it.

Edited March 15 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

15 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Has there been a lot of criticism of Beane in these threads?  

I  haven't criticized Beane at all in 2024 so far, but let's be honest, whatever situation that we're in, this has been his roster for 6 drafts going on 7 now.  

 

So if people are critical, Beane would seem to be the core person to direct their discontent, no?  

 

Since we're on the topic however, if there's one reason to consider criticizing him, wouldn't it be the WR situation?  We haven't had a season yet on his watch where people here have been satisfied with our WRs as an entire unit.  

 

Now we're heading into a draft with arguably one of the weakest WR situations we've had since when, 2019?  The consensus opinion here is that Diggs has lost a step and is no longer a solid #1.  We have no #2, only Shakir in the slot, now Samuel and Hollins to compete with him, neither having held down a #2 spot well before.  

 

Beane hasn't drafted a WR on days 1 or 2 on his 6-year draft watch.  Isn't that worthy of criticism?  Not necessarily suggestive that he should be fired or anything, but certainly something that is an issue due to his management of the roster, no?  

 

Simply playing a little devil's advocate.  People point out a lot of things wrong with our team, but it's never anyone's fault.  

 

 

 

 

I think this is fair, but IMO, that fans are not "satisfied with our WRs as an entire unit" is more of a comment on the nature of fans than it is on the WRs. People wouldn't be fully happy till you're like Cincy with Higgins and Chase. 

 

And in reality very very few teams manage to get two guys like that.

 

And I'm not sure that's the consensus about Diggs. I'd argue that the consensus is that he MAY have lost a step, or it may have been something else, and that we'll have to see.

 

Is it worthy of criticism that he hasn't drafted a day 1 or 2 WR? No. Particularly when they used one of their first rounders to trade for Diggs, and that another 1st rounder went last year to a guy who looks like a terrific pass catcher, Kincaid, no. I certainly don't think so.

 

If their WR situation absolutely sucked, then that would be a far worse indicator. But we don't suck. We're pretty good but not excellent. Under those circumstances, situations and environments might easily produce better possibilities for improving the team.

 

By the way, Tompsett on Cover1 just said that Matt Harmon on twitter just put out a very good tweet w/ a great review on the Curtis Samuel pickup. If you're on twitter (I'm not), might be worth a look.

[LABILLBACKER]

10 hours ago, Sweats said:

As far as FA goes, you can pretty well put that baby to bed.

It's been a long, longgggggggg time since i've looked forward this much to a draft. I've got a feeling Beane is going to bundle up some picks and wheel and deal.

Yeah, we're definitely not coming away with 11 players. Feels like 7-8. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

We don't have a problem at WR, especially now. We have a chance to raise production if we can somehow bring in another #1. But we don't have a problem, not with Allen throwing to Diggs, a second-year Kincaid and the two new additions.

 

We were 4th in passing yards and 7th in passing TDs. That's not a problem. Certainly there's room for improvement, no question, and in fact most of us do think they're likely to go WR very early in the draft.

Our pass catchers were as good as KC's last year. Did they have "a problem"?

 

There's a lot of subjectivity in your two posts there.  And "decent" vs. "good" needs defining of both words, I'm guessing we agree just using different words.

 

KC did have a WR problem.

 

As to us at 4th & 7th, I'd argue that given that we have Allen that we should consistently be in the to three in both.  

 

Debatable nonetheless.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

I still thinm we need a safety. Curl went to LAC for 2 years $13m. Man..... I'd have bitten your hand off for that deal here. 

 

Seriously. If we start the season with Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis I will cry a little. 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

There's a lot of subjectivity in your two posts there.  And "decent" vs. "good" needs defining of both words, I'm guessing we agree just using different words.

 

KC did have a WR problem.

 

As to us at 4th & 7th, I'd argue that given that we have Allen that we should consistently be in the to three in both.  

 

Debatable nonetheless.

 

 

 

 

There is indeed a lot of subjectivity in my posts.

 

Yours too, of course. But certainly in mine also.

 

"KC did have a WR problem," you say? Well, this is both very subjective and very arguable. If the Super Bowl winners have that kind of a problem, I don't mind having that kind of problem. More reasonably, though, is that KC didn't have a problem anymore than we do. I might have gone there until Rashee Rice developed so quickly. He's a solid decent guy.

 

Like the Bills, they certainly have one of the better pass catchers in the league, in Diggs and in Kelce.

 

As for, "given that we have Josh Allen ... we should consistently be in the top three in both," that is pretty much the definition of subjective. The fact is that even with elite QBs a lot don't make the top three in both in any given year than do.

 

Mahomes last year was 6th and 8th, and his team won the Super Bowl. The year before, Mahomes was 1st and 1st and they did NOT won the Super Bowl. The year before, 2021, Mahomes was 4th and 4th and they DID NOT win the Super Bowl. The year before, 2020, 2nd and 4th and they DID win. The year before, 10th and 9th. The  year before that 2nd and 1st and they did NOT win.

 

EDIT: I apologize for leaving in the middle of my editing. I left several sentences unfinished and a factual mistake also when I took off for work. Sorry about that. Meant to leave it unposted and finish it later. After returning, I think I've fixed it all.

 

He's been in the league six years and was in the top three in both yards and TDs only two times. Of their THREE Super Bowl wins, Mahomes was in the top in both categories only of those times.

 

You don't win Super Bowls by having the best receiver groups or by being top three in passing yards and TDs.

 

You win Super Bowls by being the best team.

 

Another example:  In Brady's last ten years in New England, (five Super Bowls, including three wins) he looks like that:

 

2019  7th and 13th   No Super Bowl

2018  7th and 10th   Lombardi winner

2017  1st and 3rd   Super Bowl loss

2016  20th and 9th  Lombardi winner

2015  3rd and 1st  No Super Bowl

2014   10th and 6th   Lombardi winner

2013   6th and 11th   No Super Bowl

2012   4th and 4th   No Super Bowl

2011   2nd and 4th   No Super Bowl

2010   8th and 1st   Super Bowl loss

 

So Brady, arguably the GOAT and certainly on one of the greatest dynasties of all time, managed to be in the top three of both of those measures two times out of his last ten years in New England. And in neither of those two years did they win a Lombardi, despite three championships during that span.

 

Expecting Allen to "consistently be in the to three in both" measures is both unreasonable and ultimately beside the point.

 

Again, Super Bowls aren't won by having a QB be in the top three in both yards and TDs. They are won by having a really good team.

Edited March 15 by Thurman#1

[SoonerBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We don't have a problem at WR, especially now. We have a chance to raise production if we can somehow bring in another #1. But we don't have a problem, not with Allen throwing to Diggs, a second-year Kincaid and the two new additions.

 

We were 4th in passing yards and 7th in passing TDs. That's not a problem. Certainly there's room for improvement, no question, and in fact most of us do think they're likely to go WR very early in the draft.

 

Our pass catchers were as good as KC's last year. Did they have "a problem"? We don't either. Gabe's loss has probably been just about made up for with the new FAs, IMO.

 

The Bills teams with Beasley and Sanders and Brown, the guys you're referring to as "support type WRs", had terrific passing attacks. If we win the coin flip in the 13 seconds game, we'd've won it. They weren't stopping us.

 

Samuel's a good signing, not a decent one. He had Beasley / Sanders / Brown type production with crap QBs throwing to him, playing across from McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Gotta admit, I hadn't realized he'd run a 4.31 40. The guy can fly.

 

Very much agreed we fans don't change things. We'll see what actually happens down the road. Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate it.

WR round 1.  Diggs won't be here next offseason.  He is on the downside of his career and I am betting if his contract wasn't what it is, he would have been traded this year.

[PBF81]

51 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

WR round 1.  Diggs won't be here next offseason.  He is on the downside of his career and I am betting if his contract wasn't what it is, he would have been traded this year.

 

The biggest takeaway implied by your post is that they need to plan for the time when Diggs is not here, not react to his departure as an afterthought once it occurs.  

 

 

[NoSaint]

Definitely some moves left but not likely splashy.

 

something at safety and I wouldn’t be shocked by CEH/D’Onta at rb for instance 

[SoonerBillsFan]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The biggest takeaway implied by your post is that they need to plan for the time when Diggs is not here, not react to his departure as an afterthought once it occurs.  

 

 

Be proactive, not reactive. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I still thinm we need a safety. Curl went to LAC for 2 years $13m. Man..... I'd have bitten your hand off for that deal here. 

 

Seriously. If we start the season with Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis I will cry a little. 

I agree with you.  You think Simmons will cost a little more than that, Blackmon about the same?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I agree with you.  You think Simmons will cost a little more than that, Blackmon about the same?

 

Hopefull Blackmon a little less?

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

WR round 1.  Diggs won't be here next offseason.  He is on the downside of his career and I am betting if his contract wasn't what it is, he would have been traded this year.

 

 

All that is certainly possible. Most likely not so with Diggs not being here in 2025, but yeah, possible.

 

WR in round 1 also possible. It'll depend how the draft falls, as it always does.

[mjt328]

8 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Has there been a lot of criticism of Beane in these threads?  

I  haven't criticized Beane at all in 2024 so far, but let's be honest, whatever situation that we're in, this has been his roster for 6 drafts going on 7 now.  

 

So if people are critical, Beane would seem to be the core person to direct their discontent, no?  

 

What is the situation the Bills are in?

- The second best Winning Pct. in the NFL over the last 5 years?  

- Five straight postseason births

- Four straight AFC East titles and Wild Card Round victories

 

 

Nobody is satisfied with these accomplishments.  We all want a Super Bowl win.  And falling short is horribly frustrating.

 

But everyone needs to remember the NFL postseason is a single-game elimination situation.  One shot and you are done.  

Beane has put together a roster good enough to put us in position 4 years in a row.  There are multiple factors on why the team hasn't gotten over the hump yet, and roster management is far at the bottom of that list.

 

 

8 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Since we're on the topic however, if there's one reason to consider criticizing him, wouldn't it be the WR situation?  We haven't had a season yet on his watch where people here have been satisfied with our WRs as an entire unit.  

 

I would very much disagree with this statement.

People weren't satisfied with the Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabe Davis lineup?  That was one of the best in the NFL at the time.

People weren't satisfied when Brown was later replaced with Emmanuel Sanders?  That was pretty good too.

 

Things didn't start going downhill until Beasley was released, and Davis failed to step up as the #2.  

Which was the middle of the 2022 season.

 

8 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Now we're heading into a draft with arguably one of the weakest WR situations we've had since when, 2019?  The consensus opinion here is that Diggs has lost a step and is no longer a solid #1.  We have no #2, only Shakir in the slot, now Samuel and Hollins to compete with him, neither having held down a #2 spot well before.  

 

Beane hasn't drafted a WR on days 1 or 2 on his 6-year draft watch.  Isn't that worthy of criticism?  Not necessarily suggestive that he should be fired or anything, but certainly something that is an issue due to his management of the roster, no?  

 

Simply playing a little devil's advocate.  People point out a lot of things wrong with our team, but it's never anyone's fault.  

 

 

Beane traded his #1 pick for Diggs.  That counts.

Beane clearly wanted to target a WR in Round 1 last year, but there was a huge run before we picked.  He still went for a receiving weapon on Dalton Kincaid.

 

There are 22 starting positions on the roster.  In the span of six drafts, you start with exactly 18 picks on Day 1-2.

He did spend one of those on Diggs.  It's not realistic to expect him to address every position with a high pick every couple seasons.  

 

[Warriorspikes51]

I'd take Mike Williams on a 1 year deal.  If he can somehow stay healthy, he's a beast.  
 

BUT if we did this, I'd still want a Round 1 WR

 

 

[Thurman#1]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hopefull Blackmon a little less?

 

 

Yeah, maybe. My guess is they're going to bring in at least one vet FA at safety, but not necessarily one they expect to start. We'll see.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, maybe. My guess is they're going to bring in at least one vet FA at safety, but not necessarily one they expect to start. We'll see.

 

I really hope you are wrong.

[Thurman#1]

16 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Beane traded his #1 pick for Diggs.  That counts.

 

 

 

Yes, precisely.

 

In his six drafts, he's twice used a first-rounder on a pass catcher, in Diggs and Kincaid.

 

Would people only have been happy if he'd used three 1sts in his six years?

 

In any case, seems likely we'll use either a 1st or a 2nd this year on a pass catcher if the board falls favorably, which with the large number of good WR prospects seems pretty likely.

 

 

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I really hope you are wrong.

 

 

Heh heh. Fair enough.

 

But why? What would be wrong with bringing in at least one more safety, especially if lower-level FAs are included?

 

Don't feel a need to answer if you don't want to.

 

Beane generally tries to go into the draft with no real needs. Would you be happy going into the draft with our current safeties?

 

 

Edited March 15 by Thurman#1

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Be proactive, not reactive. 

 

And there's room for criticism there.  

 

 

[Toyo321]

He is going to have to do something to fills more holes again.  We are barely over the CAP right now,  these numbers are vague at best,  again by about $ 350k.   If the latest cap numbers are correct.

There is work that still needs to be done.  Somewhere he still needs to free up CAP space.  I wish he would  look at Bass and force him to take the Vet league min this year to free up close to $2.5 this year.  Bass does not warrant a $4 mil salary this year.

 

With pending positive CAP cash coming in after the June 1st player cuts kicking in,  It's still really tight money wise right now.

Edited March 15 by Toyo321

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Has there been a lot of criticism of Beane in these threads?  

I  haven't criticized Beane at all in 2024 so far, but let's be honest, whatever situation that we're in, this has been his roster for 6 drafts going on 7 now.  

 

So if people are critical, Beane would seem to be the core person to direct their discontent, no?  

 

Since we're on the topic however, if there's one reason to consider criticizing him, wouldn't it be the WR situation?  We haven't had a season yet on his watch where people here have been satisfied with our WRs as an entire unit.  

 

Now we're heading into a draft with arguably one of the weakest WR situations we've had since when, 2019?  The consensus opinion here is that Diggs has lost a step and is no longer a solid #1.  We have no #2, only Shakir in the slot, now Samuel and Hollins to compete with him, neither having held down a #2 spot well before.  

 

Beane hasn't drafted a WR on days 1 or 2 on his 6-year draft watch.  Isn't that worthy of criticism?  Not necessarily suggestive that he should be fired or anything, but certainly something that is an issue due to his management of the roster, no?  

 

Simply playing a little devil's advocate.  People point out a lot of things wrong with our team, but it's never anyone's fault.  

 

 

 

Criticism that's based on reality is valid, but much of the criticism of Beane/McDermott recently hasn't been based on facts but rather on posters' untrue perceptions or ignorance.   Check out the thread on the Mack Hollins signing for criticism that descended into crucification of Beane based on a single poster's ignorance, but there have been plenty of others.  

 

I wasn't aiming at you when I originally posted in this thread, but your criticism of Beane in the bolded sentence above is both unfair and disingenuous -- and certainly unworthy of criticism.   While it is technically true that Beane hasn't drafted a WR in rounds 1 or 2, he did use a first round draft pick to acquire Stephon Diggs.

 

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

The biggest takeaway implied by your post is that they need to plan for the time when Diggs is not here, not react to his departure as an afterthought once it occurs.  

 

 

^^^

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Be proactive, not reactive. 

 

Oh, you guys mean like  ...

• Collecting draft capital and doing due diligence so that the Bills could not only move up in the 2018 draft to take a QB but to take the right QB? 
• Hiring Brian Daboll and then adding Ken Dorsey to develop Josh Allen into a generational QB talent? 
• Trading for Stephon Diggs?
• Drafting Terrel Bernard in 2022 to replace Tremaine Edmunds?  
• Trading for Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline because he knew that he wasn't going to keep White in 2024?

Edited March 15 by SoTier

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Would you be happy going into the draft with our current safeties?

 

 

I wouldn't be happy going into heaven with our current safeties let alone the draft.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

What is the situation the Bills are in?

- The second best Winning Pct. in the NFL over the last 5 years?  

- Five straight postseason births

- Four straight AFC East titles and Wild Card Round victories

 

- Arguably the easiest division for any team in the NFL during that span. 

- An abject inability to beat anything but a wild-card caliber team in postseason play.  (aka the playoffs)  

- Zero victories in the playoffs over any team seeded 1st thru 4th  

 

 

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Nobody is satisfied with these accomplishments.  We all want a Super Bowl win.  And falling short is horribly frustrating.

 

That's simply not true.  I've got into personal debates/discussions here, many, where some have said that they're quite content with merely having a team to root for here in Buffalo, "entertainment" during the regular season, etc.  

 

That'd be a great poll:  

 

What is your level of contentment in any given season with Allen as our QB?  

 

A.  I expect a Championship every season or I'm not content.  

B.  I expect us to go to the playoffs but am content once that goal is achieved, win or lose therein.  

C.  I'm quite content with whatever the season brings, whether we make the playoffs or not.  

 

 

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

But everyone needs to remember the NFL postseason is a single-game elimination situation.  One shot and you are done.  

Beane has put together a roster good enough to put us in position 4 years in a row.  There are multiple factors on why the team hasn't gotten over the hump yet, and roster management is far at the bottom of that list.  

 

I don't recall ranking it anywhere.  But it is on the list.  All one has to do is look at the complaints regarding our WR situation during his watch.  

 

 

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

I would very much disagree with this statement.

People weren't satisfied with the Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabe Davis lineup?  That was one of the best in the NFL at the time.

People weren't satisfied when Brown was later replaced with Emmanuel Sanders?  That was pretty good too.

 

Things didn't start going downhill until Beasley was released, and Davis failed to step up as the #2.  

Which was the middle of the 2022 season.

 

That one is interesting.  To start, based upon opinions here during the season, you appear to be in the minority on that one.  For me it's a little different.  IMO we don't have the best WRs in the league, clearly, but, IMO there's been more than enough at our WR positions to get more from our passing game than we've gotten.  Not trying to stir up another debate here on something that's been beaten to death, but our offensive play calling is suspect along with at times our overall game strategies.  That's more complex however and outside the general safe-spaces of forum parameters.   

 

 

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Beane traded his #1 pick for Diggs.  That counts.

Beane clearly wanted to target a WR in Round 1 last year, but there was a huge run before we picked.  He still went for a receiving weapon on Dalton Kincaid.

 

There are 22 starting positions on the roster.  In the span of six drafts, you start with exactly 18 picks on Day 1-2.

He did spend one of those on Diggs.  It's not realistic to expect him to address every position with a high pick every couple seasons.  

 

Here's one of those areas that what you just said supports the argument that I made.  Diggs was purchased because Beane did nothing else.  

 

Let's start with the obvious.  We got Diggs at $24M/season.  Minny got Jefferson at about $3M/season for four seasons, about $6.5M/season for five.  

 

That feeds into the discussion.  Sure, we got Kincaid last season, great move given that we got Torrence in round 2.  We raved about Kincaid being the best hands/receiver in the draft, then underutilized him in that way.  

 

But allow me to ask a question.  Which players on our team, O or D, that Beane has drafted, have we gotten the kind of play out of that's a real deal for us, like Jefferson for example?  ... and apart from Allen that is, whom the team overrelies upon.  Players in essence, that mitigate the need for us to make risky aquisitions for players that we believe are going to provide the caliber of play that we don't get from our draftees.  Von Miller for example.  Diggs was an equitable deal, but had we drafted Jefferson instead, we'd have been much much better off through this season.  

 

Which is in large part why we have cap issues.  The biggest albatross for us now is Von Miller, who wasn't even guaranteed in his back nine.  The entire reason for signing Miller to begin with was because Beane's lack of drafting a similar caliber player.  We still don't have one that he drafted.  

 

Hope that explains that a little bit better.  

 

Good go 'round, thanks!!  

 

 

30 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Criticism that's based on reality is valid, but much of the criticism of Beane/McDermott recently hasn't been based on facts but rather on posters' untrue perceptions or ignorance.   Check out the thread on the Mack Hollins signing for criticism that descended into crucification of Beane based on a single poster's ignorance, but there have been plenty of others.  

 

I wasn't aiming at you when I originally posted in this thread, but your criticism of Beane in the bolded sentence above is both unfair and disingenuous -- and certainly unworthy of criticism.   While it is technically true that Beane hasn't drafted a WR in rounds 1 or 2, he did use a first round draft pick to acquire Stephon Diggs.

 

See my post to mjt328 above.  

 

As to Hollins, on the flip side, look at the overreaction to a signing of a player his caliber.  Go back and look what was said about Harty, Sherfield, and maybe one or two other players.  

 

 

30 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

^^^

 

Oh, you guys mean like  ...

• Collecting draft capital and doing due diligence so that the Bills could not only move up in the 2018 draft to take a QB but to take the right QB? 
• Hiring Brian Daboll and then adding Ken Dorsey to develop Josh Allen into a generational QB talent? 
• Trading for Stephon Diggs?
• Drafting Terrel Bernard in 2022 to replace Tremaine Edmunds?  
• Trading for Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline because he knew that he wasn't going to keep White in 2024?

 

In fairness to the discussion however, the team was in a different yet similar cap situation back then.  Everyone excused Beane for having to deal with it.  Now we find ourselves in a similar one, but this one's entirely on him after 6 drafts of his own, and to whatever extent that it exists.  I personally wouldn't call it dire, but it is an impediment, and one created largely because of his signing of Miller as one example, coupled with his inability to get "cheap labor" from the draft that's capable of performing like the Jefferson's of the league.  

 

 

Edited March 15 by PBF81

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

There is indeed a lot of subjectivity in my posts.

 

Yours too, of course. But certainly in mine also.

 

"KC did have a WR problem," you say? Well, this is both very subjective and very arguable. If the Super Bowl winners have that kind of a problem, I don't mind having that kind of problem. More reasonably, though, is that KC didn't have a problem anymore than we do. I might have gone there until Rashee Rice developed so quickly. He's a solid decent guy.

 

Like the Bills, they certainly have one of the better pass catchers in the league, in Diggs and in Kelce.

 

As for, "given that we have Josh Allen ... we should consistently be in the top three in both," that is pretty much the definition of subjective. The fact is that even with elite QBs a lot don't make the top three in both in any given year than do.

 

Mahomes last year was 6th and 8th, and his team won the Super Bowl. The year before, Mahomes was 1st and 1st and they did NOT won the Super Bowl. The year before, 2021, Mahomes was 4th and 4th and they DID NOT win the Super Bowl. The year before, 2020, 2nd and 4th and they DID win. The year before, 10th and 9th. The  year before that 2nd and 1st and they did NOT win.

 

EDIT: I apologize for leaving in the middle of my editing. I left several sentences unfinished and a factual mistake also when I took off for work. Sorry about that. Meant to leave it unposted and finish it later. After returning, I think I've fixed it all.

 

He's been in the league six years and was in the top three in both yards and TDs only two times. Of their THREE Super Bowl wins, Mahomes was in the top in both categories only of those times.

 

You don't win Super Bowls by having the best receiver groups or by being top three in passing yards and TDs.

 

You win Super Bowls by being the best team.

 

Another example:  In Brady's last ten years in New England, (five Super Bowls, including three wins) he looks like that:

 

2019  7th and 13th   No Super Bowl

2018  7th and 10th   Lombardi winner

2017  1st and 3rd   Super Bowl loss

2016  20th and 9th  Lombardi winner

2015  3rd and 1st  No Super Bowl

2014   10th and 6th   Lombardi winner

2013   6th and 11th   No Super Bowl

2012   4th and 4th   No Super Bowl

2011   2nd and 4th   No Super Bowl

2010   8th and 1st   Super Bowl loss

 

So Brady, arguably the GOAT and certainly on one of the greatest dynasties of all time, managed to be in the top three of both of those measures two times out of his last ten years in New England. And in neither of those two years did they win a Lombardi, despite three championships during that span.

 

Expecting Allen to "consistently be in the to three in both" measures is both unreasonable and ultimately beside the point.

 

Again, Super Bowls aren't won by having a QB be in the top three in both yards and TDs. They are won by having a really good team.

 

Great post, thanks for taking the time on that!!!  

 

Again, this is a little more complex topic that goes beyond the cliched "eye tests" and statistics.   I'll touch on it, if you really want to get into it, we can do that at a later time/date.  There's plenty until something real pops up.  LOL 

 

My assessment is predicated upon underachievement.  We should be doing better.  It's not a matter of straight comps with existing players or teams.  I consider Allen to be the second best QB in the league bar none.  Perhaps that homer-ish of me, but that's also my true stance.  Subjective, no doubt.  

 

However, I will say that Allen even sorely underachieved by his own predictions as well that he made prior to the season, by over 20% in fact.  

 

But here's the thing, a lot of that has to do with the overall team strategy(ies), what McD refers to as "complimentary football," and the related play-calling, particularly on offense.  Either way, Allen ranked 8th in YPG this past season, well behind numerous lesser QBs, obviously.  

 

But let's look at the past several seasons as a basis.  

 

Among active QBs only, in terms of Most Passing Yards in a Season career, Allen's highest rank is 75th, then 102nd, 125th and 133rd.  

 

Contrasted with some others ... 

 

Goff:  52nd, 57th, 71st, 90th 

Burrow:  64th, 83rd 

Cousins:  22nd, 74th, 129th, 139th 

Stafford:  14th, 16th, 25th, 55th, 88th, 120th

Mahomes:  4th, 11th, 27th, 39th 

Herbert:  15th, 40th, 117th 

Winston:  10th 

Prescott:  24th, 77th, 87th 

Watson:  30th  

Tagavailoa:  58th 

 

 

How many of those QBs do we consider to be better passers than Allen?  

 

Career Passing TDs among the top-150 ... 

 

And BTW, Allen's passing TD production was off about 20% this past season from the prior three seasons.  

 

Allen:  32nd, 38th, 49th 

 

Mahomes:  2nd, 12th, 27th, 32nd, 

Rodgers:  5th, 8th, 16th, 20th, 27th, 32nd, 115th, 135th 

Stafford:  12th (twice), 94th 

Wilson:  16th, 49th, 60th (twice), 115th 

Herbert:  27th, 115th 

Prescott:  32nd, 38th, 135th 

Jackson:  38th 

Burrow:  49th, 60th 

Cousins:  49th, 71st, 135th 

Dalton:  71st 

Tannehill:  71st 

Wentz:  71st 

Watson:  71st 

Winston:  71st 

Goff:  94th, 135th 

Carr: 94th 

Love: 94th 

Purdy:  115th 

 

How many of those QBs are as talented as Allen is as a passer?  

 

At the core of this discussion, somewhere, is why our passing numbers aren't as high as we've been expecting.  We obviously have major disagreements as to why that is and it's a topic of some controversy here to be sure.    

 

To me it's relative.  Once Allen came into his own, my expectations were more in line with what he did perennially in '20, '21, and '22 if not even better.  

 

There's a ton more data and items for consideration, but we're talking about a pretty complex analysis.  If you're interested, maybe a little later we can get into it more.  

 

But yeah, there is quite a bit of subjectivity on all sides, but at the end of the day one has to look at the common denominator in things from season to season, because there is one.  

 

 

[Thurman#1]

21 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I wouldn't be happy going into heaven with our current safeties let alone the draft.

 

 

Yeah, me too. That's why I ...

 

OK, I guess maybe we're talking past each other. Have a good day, Gunner.

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, me too. That's why I ...

 

OK, I guess maybe we're talking past each other. Have a good day, Gunner.

 

You are saying you want a vet but not necessarily one they expect to start. I think we have to get a vet upgrade on Rapp and Lewis or else we are in trouble. 

[Thurman#1]

22 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Great post, thanks for taking the time on that!!!  

 

Again, this is a little more complex topic that goes beyond the cliched "eye tests" and statistics.   I'll touch on it, if you really want to get into it, we can do that at a later time/date.  There's plenty until something real pops up.  LOL 

 

My assessment is predicated upon underachievement.  We should be doing better.  It's not a matter of straight comps with existing players or teams.  I consider Allen to be the second best QB in the league bar none.  Perhaps that homer-ish of me, but that's also my true stance.  Subjective, no doubt. 

 

However, I will say that Allen even sorely underachieved by his own predictions as well that he made prior to the season, by over 20% in fact.  

 

But here's the thing, a lot of that has to do with the overall team strategy(ies), what McD refers to as "complimentary football," and the related play-calling, particularly on offense.  Either way, Allen ranked 8th in YPG this past season, well behind numerous lesser QBs, obviously. 

 

 

Yeah, second-best. It's indeed subjective, but very reasonable indeed. Personally, I agree with you there.

 

But I think we both probably agree on who is the first-best, right? Mahomes, right? That's my feeling anyway. Do you disagree?

 

And when the best QB only manages to get both of those measure into the top three in the league in two out of his six seasons, arguing that Allen should do it consistently just simply doesn't make sense. Brady managed it two times out of his last ten years. In a run when they made five Super Bowls and won three. And Brady is arguably the GOAT, certainly one of the very few who could legitimately be mentioned as being in the running for the GOAT.

 

Brady does it two times out of ten. Mahomes does it two times out of six. And Allen is supposed to do it "consistently"?

 

I'm sorry, but that just doesn't make sense. It just doesn't. That is an unreasonable expectation, it just is.

 

You say Allen was 8th in yards per game? And that it was a down year for him? Yeah. Agreed. The fact that guys HAVE down years, all of them, Brady, Mahomes, ALL of them, is precisely why it's unreasonable to expect a guy to be in the top three of both of those categories consistently. Know who else had a down year? Mahomes. He was 7th, just barely ahead of Allen in 8th. Guys have up and down years. It's the nature of human beings, teams, hell it's in the nature of statistics itself.

 

I think you're right that some of it comes down to play-calling and such. I would also argue that a lot of it comes down to defenses playing guys like Allen and Mahomes differently from the way they play most QBs. Defenses have caught up with the highest-flying offenses of the past few years. They're saying they aren't going to let you hit the chunks plays anymore. Trevor Lawrence was 9th. Lamar Jackson 16th. Defensive strategies also have a lot to do with it.

 

But the point is that it's the way statistics work. They go up and down. For Mahomes, Brady, Allen, everyone. Getting both of those numbers up that high is statistically a rare thing. It's not something you can expect consistently.

 

More, Allen is always going to have a disadvantage in passing TDs compared to most QBs. How many times inside the ten does Pat Mahomes run for the TD? A running TDs is every single bit as good as a passing TD. They both count seven points.

 

Add running TDs to passing TDs and Allen suddenly compares very differently. Take the running TDs out and you're handicapping Allen compared to the other QBs.

 

 

22 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

But let's look at the past several seasons as a basis.  

 

Among active QBs only, in terms of Most Passing Yards in a Season career, Allen's highest rank is 75th, then 102nd, 125th and 133rd.  

 

Contrasted with some others ... 

 

Goff:  52nd, 57th, 71st, 90th 

Burrow:  64th, 83rd 

Cousins:  22nd, 74th, 129th, 139th 

Stafford:  14th, 16th, 25th, 55th, 88th, 120th

Mahomes:  4th, 11th, 27th, 39th 

Herbert:  15th, 40th, 117th 

Winston:  10th 

Prescott:  24th, 77th, 87th 

Watson:  30th  

Tagavailoa:  58th 

 

 

How many of those QBs do we consider to be better passers than Allen? 

 

 

 

Wait a minute. You suddenly went from yards per game above when that number better suited you, to total passing yards here, when that better suited you.

 

Allen runs a ton more than those guys, a ton more.

 

Think those rankings would look a bit different if we look at total production? Of course they would. Total yards is deeply affected by how many throws you make, and Allen generally throws less because he runs on a fairly large number of his throwing snaps.

 

And looking at passing yards again ignores the whole point of football, wins. Again, you don't win more by being the best passing team. You win more by being the best team. That should be the goal when drafting, bringing in FAs, and personnel matters in general.

 

More, Mahomes has four seasons where he was higher in yards than Allen has ever been, right? His three SB wins must be in those seasons, right? Nope. In only one of those four great passing yardage total seasons did the Chiefs win a title. Two of their titles came in years when he was unspectacular.

 

Again, you don't win titles by making sure your QB gets a lot of passing yards. You win titles by making sure your team, as a whole, is better.

 

Proof? I went and looked at the list you are pulling from there, rankings of the best seasons in NFL history in yardage. Know how many of the top 100 best seasons in NFL history won Super Bowls? You'd have to figure it's a lot, as the team is absolutely at the top of the league in the passing offense portion of the game. But, no.

 

Four of the top 100. I think I got that right, but to help you check, I found Warner 2011, Mahomes 2022, Eli M. 2011 and Stafford in 2021. That's it, out of the top 100 seasons in history.

 

Again, you try to put together the best TEAM. Not the best passing offense.

 

22 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

Career Passing TDs among the top-150 ...

 

And BTW, Allen's passing TD production was off about 20% this past season from the prior three seasons.  

 

Allen:  32nd, 38th, 49th (Again, these would look very different if all running TDs hadn't been eliminated. Do it that way and Allen is 9th, T-13th (that was this year, and he was first in the NFL with 44 and the #2, Prescott, had 38) , T-20th, T-20th, the most consistent in history from the numbers I'm seeing)

 

Mahomes:  2nd, 12th, 27th, 32nd, 

Rodgers:  5th, 8th, 16th, 20th, 27th, 32nd, 115th, 135th 

Stafford:  12th (twice), 94th 

Wilson:  16th, 49th, 60th (twice), 115th 

Herbert:  27th, 115th 

Prescott:  32nd, 38th, 135th 

Jackson:  38th 

Burrow:  49th, 60th 

Cousins:  49th, 71st, 135th 

Dalton:  71st 

Tannehill:  71st 

Wentz:  71st 

Watson:  71st 

Winston:  71st 

Goff:  94th, 135th 

Carr: 94th 

Love: 94th 

Purdy:  115th 

 

How many of those QBs are as talented as Allen is as a passer? 

 

 

 

Please expand the part of your post that's just above here. I added in some colored additions, pointing out how things looked very different when you looked at total yards rather than total passing yards. Looking only at total passing yards is directly handicapping the way Josh's numbers look.

 

Anyway, these numbers are yet more reason to point out why the main point is NOT using your resources the best way possible to increase your passing game's effectiveness. An awful lot of non-SB-winners on that list.

 

The main idea is to use your resources the best way possible to increase the effectiveness of your whole team. That will doubtless include using some resources on the passing game but also using high-quality assets such as high picks and more cap space on other areas of the team. Focusing only on the passing game as you are doing here is missing the point.

 

More, those are the lists of their best seasons. How many of those QBs also had plenty of seasons that were considerably worse than those on that list? All of them. What you've got there isn't a list showing a lot of consistency, which is what you are demanding of Allen. It's a list of high points. And Allen's high points fit right in there with the folks on that list. 32nd, 38th and 49th are damn impressive for Allen when you're throwing out his run yards and keeping in mind that he was more of a project than most and his first two years were statistically not very impressive.

 

 

22 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Great post, thanks for taking the time on that!!!  

 

 

 

At the core of this discussion, somewhere, is why our passing numbers aren't as high as we've been expecting.  We obviously have major disagreements as to why that is and it's a topic of some controversy here to be sure.    

 

To me it's relative.  Once Allen came into his own, my expectations were more in line with what he did perennially in '20, '21, and '22 if not even better.  

 

There's a ton more data and items for consideration, but we're talking about a pretty complex analysis.  If you're interested, maybe a little later we can get into it more.  

 

But yeah, there is quite a bit of subjectivity on all sides, but at the end of the day one has to look at the common denominator in things from season to season, because there is one.  

 

 

 

 

It is indeed a very complex discussion, and it certainly involves a ton of subjectivity.

 

But what is not subjective is the relative lack of Lombardis on those lists you noted.

 

You spent a lot of time on it, and I appreciate it. It really made me think.

 

But if I had to leave with tw things, it would be that Allen indeed had a down year, but so did Mahomes, and the Chiefs won a Super Bowl. Having a down year in those categories just isn't the most important thing, not especially indicative of likelihood to win titles. And second that if Mahomes has only managed to get in the top three in both categories in two of his six active years, expecting Allen to do it consistently when you're not including his run stats is not reasonable.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 16 by Thurman#1

[Mat68]

They can do a similar level of Samuel signing on defense.  I think they go Safety.  

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are saying you want a vet but not necessarily one they expect to start. I think we have to get a vet upgrade on Rapp and Lewis or else we are in trouble. 

 

 

Ah, I see. I agree with most of that.

 

I expect a vet, not necessarily one who will start, but possibly. And if I had to guess I'd say I also expect a safety in the draft as well, maybe even one in the first four rounds or so.

 

And I do have a ton of faith in McDermott's ability to maximize defensive backfields.

[Green Lightning]

On 3/15/2024 at 9:56 AM, SoTier said:

 

Criticism that's based on reality is valid, but much of the criticism of Beane/McDermott recently hasn't been based on facts but rather on posters' untrue perceptions or ignorance.   Check out the thread on the Mack Hollins signing for criticism that descended into crucification of Beane based on a single poster's ignorance, but there have been plenty of others.  

 

I wasn't aiming at you when I originally posted in this thread, but your criticism of Beane in the bolded sentence above is both unfair and disingenuous -- and certainly unworthy of criticism.   While it is technically true that Beane hasn't drafted a WR in rounds 1 or 2, he did use a first round draft pick to acquire Stephon Diggs.

 

^^^

 

Oh, you guys mean like  ...

• Collecting draft capital and doing due diligence so that the Bills could not only move up in the 2018 draft to take a QB but to take the right QB? 
• Hiring Brian Daboll and then adding Ken Dorsey to develop Josh Allen into a generational QB talent? 
• Trading for Stephon Diggs?
• Drafting Terrel Bernard in 2022 to replace Tremaine Edmunds?  
• Trading for Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline because he knew that he wasn't going to keep White in 2024?

Yeah but what about Wyatt Teller? I mean, that negates everything. Read it on TSW!

[Don Otreply]

On 3/15/2024 at 9:56 AM, SoTier said:

 

Criticism that's based on reality is valid, but much of the criticism of Beane/McDermott recently hasn't been based on facts but rather on posters' untrue perceptions or ignorance.   Check out the thread on the Mack Hollins signing for criticism that descended into crucification of Beane based on a single poster's ignorance, but there have been plenty of others.  

 

I wasn't aiming at you when I originally posted in this thread, but your criticism of Beane in the bolded sentence above is both unfair and disingenuous -- and certainly unworthy of criticism.   While it is technically true that Beane hasn't drafted a WR in rounds 1 or 2, he did use a first round draft pick to acquire Stephon Diggs.

 

^^^

 

Oh, you guys mean like  ...

• Collecting draft capital and doing due diligence so that the Bills could not only move up in the 2018 draft to take a QB but to take the right QB? 
• Hiring Brian Daboll and then adding Ken Dorsey to develop Josh Allen into a generational QB talent? 
• Trading for Stephon Diggs?
• Drafting Terrel Bernard in 2022 to replace Tremaine Edmunds?  
• Trading for Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline because he knew that he wasn't going to keep White in 2024?

   I am for the most part quite pleased with the Bills turnaround since Beane and McDermott got here, who wouldn’t be? But imo this single top WR in six going on seven drafts is not what one could call proactive, especially when your QB is Josh Allen, again, jmo. 

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

   I am for the most part quite pleased with the Bills turnaround since Beane and McDermott got here, who wouldn’t be? But imo this single top WR in six going on seven drafts is not what one could call proactive, especially when your QB is Josh Allen, again, jmo. 

 

I'm assuming that you mean the Bills have only used 1 first round draft pick on a WR.  That's a fair criticism.  

 

For myself, I'm not particularly interested on where the Bills get their weapons nor am I particularly attached to official positions.  IMO, you have to consider both RB James Cook (2022 2nd round) and TE Dalton Kincaid (2023 1st round) as serious weapons in Allen's arsenal.   I do think that the Bills need to add a fast WR to stretch the field, something that the Bills haven't had recently, so I would like to see them draft a WR in the first or second round, especially because this WR class is so deep.

[RiotAct]

he’s going to evolve into Gyrados.

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

I'm assuming that you mean the Bills have only used 1 first round draft pick on a WR.  That's a fair criticism.  

 

For myself, I'm not particularly interested on where the Bills get their weapons nor am I particularly attached to official positions.  IMO, you have to consider both RB James Cook (2022 2nd round) and TE Dalton Kincaid (2023 1st round) as serious weapons in Allen's arsenal.   I do think that the Bills need to add a fast WR to stretch the field, something that the Bills haven't had recently, so I would like to see them draft a WR in the first or second round, especially because this WR class is so deep.

Agree, we haven’t had a field stretching WR since Brown and that was somewhat short lived, imo it’s the missing link, 

[Matt_In_NH]

I like what he has done mostly....very conservative and trying to get cap healthier.   I think they will sign a safety and other fill in guys at DT, DE, OL and RB to compete, all lower end deals that might not have a big affect on the top 51.   He could make some other splashes but that probably requires freeing up money from Diggs which he appears to be avoiding right now.

[strive_for_five_guy]

Given the longer term deal for Taron, I think Beane’s got something else brewing 👀

[DCofNC]

On 3/14/2024 at 2:51 PM, BuffAlone said:

Of the five potential cuts that you think could happen,only Martin will be cut. Absolutely no way does VanDenmark get cut. Also,Rapp will take Poyer's role at SS. Meaning we need a starting FS to add to the mix. Jmo

If that’s the case we also need a starting SS.

[BuffAlone]

2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

If that’s the case we also need a starting SS.

Why? Do you think Rapp is incapable of being a quality starter at SS?

[DCofNC]

Just now, BuffAlone said:

Why? Do you think Rapp is incapable of being a quality starter at SS?

Absolutely.  I don’t even want him as a primary backup, much less a starter.  He’s basically a smaller Kiko Alonso, reckless, undisciplined and will kill his own teammates to make an unnecessary roughness hit on a receiver.