Greg Rousseau 5th year option, extension candidate?

[BBFL]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

I don’t agree that numbers just go up the more you play. Leonard Floyd had more sacks last year with less playing time than the year before. It doesn’t work that way. 
 

Brian Burns has proven much more as a pass rusher than Greg, imo.

For a 23 year old? I disagree. You have to factor in the playing time. 
 

Floyd was on the Rousseau stat line, actually less, when he signed that deal with the Rams that worked out around $16m a year. That was 3 years ago… All the while in his career he was playing 80-90% of the snaps and coming away with less production. 
 

The point is if Rousseau is averaging around the same statistics as guys who are playing 20-25% more snaps in a year, why wouldn’t he get paid if he sees more playing time?
He’s a great defender against the run and only sees a portion of the pass rushing snaps… With the way the market is now if he sees more playing time and increases his production he absolutely gets paid. 

[FireChans]

23 minutes ago, BBFL said:

For a 23 year old? I disagree. You have to factor in the playing time. 
 

Floyd was on the Rousseau stat line, actually less, when he signed that deal with the Rams that worked out around $16m a year. That was 3 years ago… All the while in his career he was playing 80-90% of the snaps and coming away with less production. 
 

The point is if Rousseau is averaging around the same statistics as guys who are playing 20-25% more snaps in a year, why wouldn’t he get paid if he sees more playing time?
He’s a great defender against the run and only sees a portion of the pass rushing snaps… With the way the market is now if he sees more playing time and increases his production he absolutely gets paid. 

Yeah if he produces more he will get paid. But that’s a stretch of projection, imo. 

[T master]

I hope they do extend him before his contract is up he's a good player . I think if he can stay healthy he could be make a lot of noise ...

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

 

I do so enjoy discussing paying Greg Rousseau for a potential 9.5 sack per year average, when the guy has never had more than 8 sacks ever.

 

 

I suspect if he played 80% of snaps or more he “could” get up to ten sacks etc, but McDermott seams to not like allowing that much play time for any D - linemen…, 

[BBFL]

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yeah if he produces more he will get paid. But that’s a stretch of projection, imo. 

Interesting. How do you perceive that to be a stretch of one? 
 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

That article is wrong, he won't cost $19M.

 

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

 

OTC is estimating $13,387,000 because he didn't meet the requirements for any of the higher tiers.

 

At that price you definitely pick up the option. He's arguably the best run stopping EDGE in the league and is still very young with a lot of upside as a pass rusher.

 

 

Yeah if it were $19M I would pass and just use the tag if it came to it,  which will probably be around $23-$24M.    Just not enough spread in that value versus the tag to justify the injury risk.  

 

But for $13M it's a VERY easy call.    

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, BBFL said:

Interesting. How do you perceive that to be a stretch of one? 
 

Because I don’t believe that if Greg gets 20% more snaps, he is guaranteed to get 20% more sacks. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Decline the 5th year option.  (That way Agent cannot use it as leverage)

 

Extend this offseason while he is still alot of "unrealized potential"  Eat when he explodes similar to Olivers Contract. 

 

 

I think his agent knows better than that.

 

His unrealized potential is understood..........that's why he went in round 1...........and entering free agency as a 24 year old DE he could get a $30M aav if he puts up a 10 sack season this year.   Youth gets paid in the NFL.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think his agent knows better than that.

 

His unrealized potential is understood..........that's why he went in round 1...........and entering free agency as a 24 year old DE he could get a $30M aav if he puts up a 10 sack season this year.   Youth gets paid in the NFL.

That is why IMO you take the Security (5th year option) off the table and get the extension done this offseason after Tre's money frees up. 

[Westside]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

5th year option, extend after next year is the most likely outcome. But not a slam dunk. 

I don't think he's worth almost 20 million a year. Lets hope he has a breakout year, which he definitely can have. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I don’t agree that numbers just go up the more you play. Leonard Floyd had more sacks last year with less playing time than the year before. It doesn’t work that way. 
 

Brian Burns has proven much more as a pass rusher than Greg, imo.

 

Floyd is not a fair comparison at all though.  Floyd is a pass rush specialist, where Greg is asked to do a lot more like set the edge.  They don't have the same roles.  With someone like Floyd its not abnormal to have more sacks one year than the next even on fewer snaps.  I mean you are talking about a single play happening once or twice more in an entire 17 game season. 

 

So this doesn't prove that more playing time wouldn't increase his stats, which it clearly would.  More snaps on the field equals more opportunities to make more plays.  

[Bruffalo]

This is one of the reasons why I'm not a big fan of McD's rotate happy D-Lineman philosophy.

 

Rousseau probably deserves a good contract, but can you pay that money knowing he's gonna play 40-50% of snaps? I don't know that you can.  

 

 

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

The Bills rotate their DE’s a lot.  Rousseau has been a good but far from consistently dominant player.  The Bills defense (especially the front 7) is not predicated on star players.  Other than Milano.  (And they were still good when he went down last year) It is the collective talent of the group as a whole versus individual players that has made them a very good if not great defense under McDermott IMO.  And the secondary has always lead the defense.  
 

Rousseau has not earned a $19-$20 mill per year contract at this point.  I would not give him the 5th year option.  Let him earn that extension on the field through at least the first half of next season.  And if his game has gone to the next level, then give him the big money.  

 

That is my problem with rotations - if you are being paid to be a big dog you need to be on the field barking except when game results are not in question.  Some players do not want that many snaps but they want the money so they can last longer.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

The Bills rotate their DE’s a lot.  Rousseau has been a good but far from consistently dominant player.  The Bills defense (especially the front 7) is not predicated on star players.  Other than Milano.  (And they were still good when he went down last year) It is the collective talent of the group as a whole versus individual players that has made them a very good if not great defense under McDermott IMO.  And the secondary has always lead the defense.

 

It's difficult to have this discussion without injecting McD's philosophy as such.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Rousseau has not earned a $19-$20 mill per year contract at this point.  I would not give him the 5th year option.  Let him earn that extension on the field through at least the first half of next season.  And if his game has gone to the next level, then give him the big money.  

 

Rousseau's at least a little bit of an enigma to be sure.

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

At only $13m you don’t need to think too hard ..

 

I still want to see more from him before extending him..

[mannc]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

5th year option, extend after next year is the most likely outcome. But not a slam dunk. 

The 5th year option is a slam dunk.  We're talking about a three-down defensive end who can stuff the run and has a ton of upside as a pass rusher.  Remember, Rousseau is only 23-years old...younger than some guys in this year's draft.   

[Green Lightning]

5 hours ago, BBFL said:

 

Think that’s a very fair assessment. The question becomes how much his agent is asking for him on a long term contract. With the way some of these contracts this off-season have been, it might get pricey. 
 

I mean look at Brian Burns, who I would say is about the production you’re probably going to get if Groot plays 75-90% of the snaps in a season, where you’re getting around 9.5 sacks on the year (for an average). 
 

That guy just collected 5yr/$150m… Now I’m not saying that’s what Groot will get but the expected play time for him is going to increase this year. If he pans out even similar to Brian Burns stats do you pay him something similar?

 

Someone will if that happens. Kid is ultra talented at what you said; defending the run and is still relatively raw to football; 6/7 years of playing the position? A lot of potential in him. 

Burns is a good example. I'd rather extend Groot now than let him hit the open market.  Snap percentage is a interesting point. Groot is mid 50's percentage wise. I wonder if he views it as a bonus as it prolongs his career and keeps him fresh for more effort in his snaps -- or if he thinks it's holding him back from better sack totals and higher value?

 

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, mannc said:

The 5th year option is a slam dunk.  We're talking about a three-down defensive end who can stuff the run and has a ton of upside as a pass rusher.  Remember, Rousseau is only 23-years old...younger than some guys in this year's draft.   

 

Yes, sorry I meant that it wasn't a slam dunk that they pick up the option then sign after next season. I agree they will pick up the option. I think most likely they extend him after 2024. But a play out the 5th year isn't impossible.

[Brand J]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

That article is wrong, he won't cost $19M.

 

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

 

OTC is estimating $13,387,000 because he didn't meet the requirements for any of the higher tiers.

 

At that price you definitely pick up the option. He's arguably the best run stopping EDGE in the league and is still very young with a lot of upside as a pass rusher.

He’s definitely better at stopping the run/setting the edge than rushing the passer, but he still wasn’t among the top 10 DEs in run stop win rate. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Floyd is not a fair comparison at all though.  Floyd is a pass rush specialist, where Greg is asked to do a lot more like set the edge.  They don't have the same roles.  With someone like Floyd its not abnormal to have more sacks one year than the next even on fewer snaps.  I mean you are talking about a single play happening once or twice more in an entire 17 game season. 

 

So this doesn't prove that more playing time wouldn't increase his stats, which it clearly would.  More snaps on the field equals more opportunities to make more plays.  

Ya’ll keep saying it “clearly would” when the only evidence is speculation.

 

There’s loads of player who played more snaps and had worse sack totals. 
 

Especially in a guy who hasn’t proven much as a reliable pass rusher.

Edited March 13 by FireChans