Is it time to grow concerned about Greg Rousseau?

[FireChans]

I liked Greg a lot coming out of college. Great physical traits with a lot of room to grow or low floor/high ceiling has been the Beane MO and I think it’s the right one. Josh, Edmunds, Rousseau, Elam have all fit that mold and when those players do hit, the benefit is that they are supposed to hit big.

 

But obviously we have been hit or miss in that first round. And perhaps even more bothersome, they have not hit “big” except for Josh. Edmunds is an NFL player but he wasn’t the defensive All-Pro they thought he was going to be. And Rousseau seems to be going that same road. 
 

I have this debate all the time on here about players “who can be 8-10 sack guys.” 8-10 sack guys are INCREDIBLY rare. It’s not very common for 6 sack guys to just become double digit sack guys because they play more or anything else. And Greg is that perfect example. He played 3 more games than last season and had 3 less sacks. He played more defensive snaps than he ever has in his career and a higher percentage of snaps. And his year was just… alright.
 

But anyway, besides that, we are running into the Edmunds problem where the fifth year option decision is coming. I would assume Greg is going to play on it, but based on his production, are we sure he is going to get an extension? Or is he going to be an Edmunds, where we let a solid player get overpaid by a bum franchise because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze?

Edited February 19 by FireChans

[LeGOATski]

I'm not concerned. He's just a good player. Late first rounders usually become just good players.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

He’s a very good player. What’s the concern? He defends everything. Good vs run and pass. He’s just not elite at anything yet.

Edited February 19 by Buffalo_Stampede

[uticaclub]

He’s fine, not elite, not a liability.

[BuffaloBillyG]

The biggest issue I have had with him is that the last 2 seasons he starts out the season on an absolute heater. Then seems to have a foot/ankle issue that slow him up for the rest of the year.

 

This season I believe it was a broken bone in the foot that they said wouldn't be further injured by playing on it...but it did play into his burst I believe.

 

I'd like to see if he can stay relatively healthy this year or is there is something more chronic that plays into the lower leg issues. I do believe that if relatively healthy he has the tools to be that 8-10 sack a year guy. 

[DrDawkinstein]

What's the concern? Dude is playing exactly how you'd expect a #30 1st round pick to play.

 

Yes, you pick up the option, and extend him. No brainer. This is nothing like Edmunds.

[The Cincinnati Kid]

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I'm not concerned. He's just a good player. Late first rounders usually become just good players.

 

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s a very good player. What’s the concern? He defends everything. Good vs run and pass. He’s just not elite at anything yet.

The concern is what “good players” cost. Greg’s fifth year option is going to cost $13M. Danielle Hunter (a more productive but older player) is projected to get $20M AAV. What will Greg get the year after?
 

Do we pay Rousseau $20M a season to be a “good player?” 

[Augie]

We are in this for the comp picks.    😋

 

I’m not worried. He’s not a quick twitch kind of player, but he does a good job imo. If we had one stud, like a younger/healthy Von, it would make it a lot easier on everybody. 

[gotme365]

I’d treat this exactly like Edmunds. Pick up the option but I’m not extending. He’s a great run defender but is a subpar pass rusher. I wouldn’t want to pay big money for that

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

The concern is what “good players” cost. Greg’s fifth year option is going to cost $13M. Danielle Hunter (a more productive but older player) is projected to get $20M AAV. What will Greg get the year after?
 

Do we pay Rousseau $20M a season to be a “good player?” 

Yes, you pay Rousseau. He checks all the boxes for someone you extend. Production, potential, and position.

His pressure rate is better than his sack rate. Plus he defends the run. He also has untapped potential. Very young player. He plays an important position that’s not easily filled.

 

Edited February 19 by Buffalo_Stampede

[LabattBlue]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Yes, you pay Rousseau. He checks all the boxes for someone you extend. Production, potential, and position.

His pressure rate is better than his sack rate. Plus he defends the run. He also has untapped potential. Very young player. He plays an important position that’s not easily filled.

 

What $$$ contract are you signing him for?

[Success]

He's already very good, and he's 23.

 

We've seen so many players here take a leap - Oliver, Epenesa, Bernard.  I don't think we have seen Rousseau's best yet.  But he's already very good.

 

[H2o]

We have Rousseau for two more years at the least, as they certainly will pick up the 5th year option. He's been a good player against both the run and getting after the QB. He also has some positional flexibility because they can kick him inside on pass rushing downs. I don't really see any concern with that. See how the next two years play out and we can move based off of that. 

[UConn James]

I’d like to see how he does with a new DL coach. Eric Washington was given a lot of prime resources and we saw little return until Ed came on this year.

[Process]

2 minutes ago, Success said:

He's already very good, and he's 23.

 

We've seen so many players here take a leap - Oliver, Epenesa, Bernard.  I don't think we have seen Rousseau's best yet.  But he's already very good.

 

I didn't believe you when I saw this but looked it up and wow yea still just 23yo. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

What $$$ contract are you signing him for?

Montez Sweat deal.

4 minutes ago, H2o said:

We have Rousseau for two more years at the least, as they certainly will pick up the 5th year option. He's been a good player against both the run and getting after the QB. He also has some positional flexibility because they can kick him inside on pass rushing downs. I don't really see any concern with that. See how the next two years play out and we can move based off of that. 

Yes. Position flexibility is another plus with Rousseau.

 

 

[BBFL]

Like Rousseau, think he’s a solid player and is still pretty raw. I wonder how much of a hinderance the whole rotation thing on the DLine is to his development…

 

Look at the rest of the league in terms of snap counts, and I’m not putting him on par with these guys it’s just a playing percentage, where guys who make the biggest differences and most plays in terms of TFL’s, forced fumbles and Sacks; Maxx Crosby, Khalil Mack, Micah Parsons, Danielle Hunter, Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Trey Hendrickson and Josh Allen.

All of them play around the 80% or more mark with Garrett, Bosa and Donald at 76%+. 
 

Hendrickson is the only outlier but still remains at 68%. 
 

Rousseau has played 49%, 44% and 55% of the snaps in his first 3 years. I’d like to see him on the field a lot more this year so you know whether he’s absolutely worth an extension and/or the 5th year option (which he is). 
 

Essentially, I feel he’d be a better and more impactful player the more he’s on the field. Just needs that chance to. 75% of the snaps is reasonable for a first rounder going into year 4 when you still have massive question marks at that area of the defense. 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, BBFL said:

Like Rousseau, think he’s a solid player and is still pretty raw. I wonder how much of a hinderance the whole rotation thing on the DLine is to his development…

 

Look at the rest of the league in terms of snap counts, and I’m not putting him on par with these guys it’s just a playing percentage, where guys who make the biggest differences and most plays in terms of TFL’s, forced fumbles and Sacks; Maxx Crosby, Khalil Mack, Micah Parsons, Danielle Hunter, Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Trey Hendrickson and Josh Allen.

All of them play around the 80% or more mark with Garrett, Bosa and Donald at 76%+. 
 

Hendrickson is the only outlier but still remains at 68%. 
 

Rousseau has played 49%, 44% and 55% of the snaps in his first 3 years. I’d like to see him on the field a lot more this year so you know whether he’s absolutely worth an extension and/or the 5th year option (which he is). 
 

Essentially, I feel he’d be a better and more impactful player the more he’s on the field. Just needs that chance to. 75% of the snaps is reasonable for a first rounder going into year 4 when you still have massive question marks at that area of the defense. 

 

I think it’s possible this will be a change moving forward next year out of need. We won’t have the depth along the DL.

[LeGOATski]

24 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

The concern is what “good players” cost. Greg’s fifth year option is going to cost $13M. Danielle Hunter (a more productive but older player) is projected to get $20M AAV. What will Greg get the year after?
 

Do we pay Rousseau $20M a season to be a “good player?” 

That's not a concern to me. If they don't think he's good enough, then don't pay him. Groot himself is the only one who should be concerned. For the FO and fans, it seems pretty simple.

[Big Turk]

No.

[BillsPride12]

When he's healthy he can be a force.  My only concern with him is he going to be the type of guy that is constantly dealing with nagging injuries?  The injuries he's had so far could just be flukey but I get nervous because of his body frame.  Sometimes those big guys like that can deal with nagging foot problems.  We'll see

[Beast]

He’s mediocre. The type of player that shouldn’t get a second contract.

[LabattBlue]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Montez Sweat deal.

Would it have been that difficult to respond with the years and $$$. 👎🏻

[LABILLBACKER]

42 minutes ago, gotme365 said:

I’d treat this exactly like Edmunds. Pick up the option but I’m not extending. He’s a great run defender but is a subpar pass rusher. I wouldn’t want to pay big money for that

Totally agree.....I'm very concerned.  Greg has played 3 full seasons and is averaging 5.6 sacks per season. I would expect a little more from a 1st round DE, regardless of whether he was picked 20th or 30th.  I'm not extending and paying 15-20M until he can prove double digit sacks. Right now he's just Chris Kelsay.

Edited February 19 by LABILLBACKER

[schoolhouserock]

He seems to play the run really, really well. He could be elite at that part of the game.

 

Not sure what his ceiling is for pass rushing, however.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, LabattBlue said:

Would it have been that difficult to respond with the years and $$$. 👎🏻

4 years 96 million. By the time the contract kicks in he’d probably be around 15-20th highest paid edge.

 

The problem is if Rousseau has an elite season we might see that number jump closer to $30 million per year. Thats when the decision gets harder because he’d just have that 1 elite season.

[Cubanmist 1]

Much rather extend Leonard than Groot. We need intimidators and pests, not someone that is just there. If he can manage to be in the QBs face most of the day then I’d give him a big contract. 

Just now, Cubanmist 1 said:

Much rather extend Leonard than Groot. We need intimidators and pests, not someone that is just there. If he can manage to be in the QBs face most of the day then I’d give him a big contract. 

It’s bad enough that Espenesa made more noise than Groot. AJ merits a raise more than Groot.

[Billl]

44 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

What's the concern? Dude is playing exactly how you'd expect a #30 1st round pick to play.

 

Yes, you pick up the option, and extend him. No brainer. This is nothing like Edmunds.

Extend him at what price, though?  If it takes 4/$86 million with $60 million guaranteed, are you good with that?  He's a solid player and a great value at his current contract of 4/$12 million. 

 

I listed him as the most likely Bill to have a breakout season in 2023, but it never materialized.  Unless he finds another level in 2024, I think Beane can find similar production in the draft on day 2.

[dpberr]

IMO, Rousseau is a 1B at this stage in his career.  He needs the other end, the 1A, to create the chaos so that he can take advantage of it.  That's the downstream value of a player like Von Miller.  If Von Miller performs, Rousseau likely has a Pro Bowl year statistically on the other end of the line.  

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

Extend him at what price, though?  If it takes 4/$86 million with $60 million guaranteed, are you good with that?  He's a solid player and a great value at his current contract of 4/$12 million. 

 

I listed him as the most likely Bill to have a breakout season in 2023, but it never materialized.  Unless he finds another level in 2024, I think Beane can find similar production in the draft on day 2.

 

Considering we are talking about a contract that will run 2026-2029, yes. Those numbers should be more than acceptable and workable by our FO.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Totally agree.....I'm very concerned.  Greg has played 3 full seasons and is averaging 5.6 sacks per season. I would expect a little more from a 1st round DE, regardless of whether he was picked 20th or 30th.  I'm not extending and paying 15-20M until he can prove double digit sacks. Right now he's just Chris Kelsay.

So you only want great players, rookies, or aging vets? No good players or middle players?  
 

You also have to account for position. Edmunds played a position easily replaced. You can’t just replace Rousseau. Like I said his pressure rates are better than his sack rates. The sacks will probably come, but even if he averages 6-8 sacks every year he’s worth the contract because he does everything.

5 minutes ago, Cubanmist 1 said:

Much rather extend Leonard than Groot. We need intimidators and pests, not someone that is just there. If he can manage to be in the QBs face most of the day then I’d give him a big contract. 

It’s bad enough that Espenesa made more noise than Groot. AJ merits a raise more than Groot.

You need both Floyd and Rousseau.

 

No, Epenesa is no where near Rousseau as a player.

[FireChans]

46 minutes ago, Process said:

I didn't believe you when I saw this but looked it up and wow yea still just 23yo. 

The Edmunds comparison continues to grow.

[Don Otreply]

No its not, at this point its meaningless off season chatter, what we need here is more meaningless combine chatter…, and fire McDermott threads, oh and don’t forget back up QB threads as well…, 

Edited February 19 by Don Otreply

[LABILLBACKER]

10 minutes ago, Cubanmist 1 said:

Much rather extend Leonard than Groot. We need intimidators and pests, not someone that is just there. If he can manage to be in the QBs face most of the day then I’d give him a big contract. 

It’s bad enough that Espenesa made more noise than Groot. AJ merits a raise more than Groot.

Neither merits a raise nor can either consistently get home. If you want to hurdle KC, you actually have to sack Mahomes.  Not almost sack him. I could live with giving Floyd a 2yr deal @ 7M per yr. But there's no way I'm paying Groot 15+ unless he can have a 10 or 12 sack season.

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Considering we are talking about a contract that will run 2026-2029, yes. Those numbers should be more than acceptable and workable by our FO.

I’m kinda not as interested in paying big money to players who don’t show up in big moments. 
 

$40M+ cap hit on the DL in 26 for Eddy and Greg to not breathe on opposing QB’s in the postseason? Woof.

 

[SoCal Deek]

I’d be looking at the D Line coach with a magnifying glass. We cannot keep drafting these guys and then dumping them back on the street year after year. Groot has all the tools to be a very good NFL edge rusher. And I’d say the same for Epinesa. Neither of these were small school ‘project’ picks. Who’s teaching these young men how to adapt their skill set to the NFL? (For what it’s worth, AJE was a beast in college and then some genius at OBD told him to shed 100 pounds.)

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

No its not, at this point its meaningless   off season chatter, what we need here more of is meaningless combine chatter…, and fire McDermott threads, oh and don’t forget back up QB threads as well…, 

If you don’t want to read TBD and the “meaningless chatter” in the off-season, there’s a big red X in the top right of the screen.

[SCBills]

Kinda, yea...

 

We don't have the luxury of paying big money to non-difference makers. 

 

As of right now, Rousseau's ability and potential would require big money.  As of now, he hasn't been a difference maker.  

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’d be looking at the D Line coach with a magnifying glass. We cannot keep drafting these guys and then dumping them back on the street year after year. Groot has all the tools to be a very good NFL edge rusher. And I’d say the same for Epinesa. Neither of these were small school ‘project’ picks. Who’s teaching these young men how to adapt their skill set to the NFL? (For what it’s worth, AJE was a beast in college and then some genius at OBD told him to shed 100 pounds.)

 

I've long suspected the AHC title was given to Washington in an effort to get him promoted out of the organization while getting a couple of 3rd rounders. I havent been impressed with his work while he's been here. It seemed like Von contributed more to AJE and Groot's development in 1 year than Washington was able to manage.