Once and for all....PFFffffffft

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

So when you have something as bizarre as Ed Oliver being graded as average

 

PFF's fundamental flaw is they don't properly weigh the plays according to importance. With Oliver they consistently give him very high pass rush grades but very low run stop grades. Against the Steelers his pass rush grade was 90.9 which is top of the top elite, while his run stop grade was 33.9 which is bottom of the bottom terrible. His total grade ended up being 65.3 which is decent starter level... But Oliver is a pass rusher. That's where his value lies. Mixing run stops with pass rushes is not really a proper evaluation of his value as a player. And that's before getting into the numerous other issues inherent to PFF's grading system.

 

Edited January 18 by HappyDays

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

Let's delve into PFF graders and do some simple math.  PFF states they employ 600 full and part time analysts but less than 10% are trained to the level where they grade plays and 2-3% percent to the level of reviewing and finalizing grades.  OK, so that means they have less than 60 people grading plays and 12-18 people reviewing and finalizing them.  We'll use 60 and 12-18 in our assessment.

 

Yes, this is because only the former NFL personnel (coordinators and coaches) are allowed to stamp final grades (they can also veto them).

 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

In a typical game there are average 63 offensive and 63 defensive plays.  That's 126 plays per game for each team, or 4032 plays per week.  Each of those plays involves 11 players PFF gonna grade, so 44352 player plays per week to grade.

 

If less than 10% of their 600 analysts grade plays, that means  each analyst is grading at least 739 plays over a span of a couple days.  For the data to be useful for teams, they would need the grades at latest Tuesday after the game - Monday for their own players, since they review film and do corrections on Monday; Tuesday for their next opponent since that's when the coaches create the game plan for the next week, which they install with the team Wednesday.

 

This is exactly why PFF grades take several days to be released. They're not immediate like typical stats on NFL.com or Espn.com.

Sometimes it takes until Wednesday to get a players PFF grade.
 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

Let's contrast this with the NFL, where, let's say on offense, the Bills average 65.5 plays per game on offense.  The OL coach has an assistant coach (and possibly an intern or another offensive assistant) and 5 players in on every play, so and his assistant have 328 plays to review and grade.  That's half the number of plays, for twice the number of people per play, by people who know the play call and the assignment to start with.  And that's the busiest room on offense.  The WR coaches are grading 180 plays per game since 2 or 3 WR sets.  The RB coach is grading an average of 71 plays per game since the Bills do very few 2 back sets.  etc.

 

This argument is essentially "I don't understand and therefore its not possible". 

 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Now: to your statement "we can all see on All-22 what the play is".  I would like to remind you of a discussion that took place earlier this season between yourself, @Buffalo716, and @HoofHearted regarding what the defensive coverage was on a specific play thus what the assignment responsibilities were.  You're obviously someone who knows some ball, but does the phrase "I run the coverage you’re referring to and it’s not played the way you think it’s played. If you’d like we can go to PMs and I can teach it to you" ring a bell?  

 

No reminder needed - I recall that conversation well.

It was the conversation in which I was proven right. 

I told everyone that the defense was running Cover 3. Several people, including Hoof, disagreed with me (even mocking me at one point, by offering to "teach me" via private messages and telling me that I was confused).

Then a few days later Big Turk posted a video by a former NFL QB, and in the video the player confirmed it was Cover 3. In fact, the QB's analysis was practically a verbatim copy of what I had said throughout the thread (and was told I was wrong/confused). 

I never got an apology for that, but thanks for bringing it up.

 

 

 

 

Quote

You even ran into that here about 2 months ago, so I'm not sure how (if you're intellectually honest in discussion) it's so challenging for you to acknowledge this.

What I ran into was being bullied for several pages and then I was proven right by an NFL QB who would obviously know how to read defenses. PS, To Buffalo716 credit, he agreed with my Cover 3 diagnosis from the beginning.
 

I've noticed you tag Hoof and Buffalo716 a lot, as if they are the judge of all football, so I guess you just assumed he was correct when he "corrected" me. I rarely post about technical matters (not to be confused with opinion posts) unless I know it to be true. I stay out of a lot of technical threads, not contributing, because I am not certain in my belief. When I do post about a technical football issue, it's because I have strong reason to believe that I am correct in my analysis. 

.

 

Edited January 18 by Einstein

[34-78-83]

This is an exercise in reading comprehension. Keep it simple, people.

 

The NFL pays PFF for RAW DATA. NOT grades.

 

PFF grades are indeed flawed, as evidenced by many many player season performances over the years being completely out of whack in both directions. This happens especially with linemen on both sides of the ball, and for defenders who implement a lot of zone coverage. PFF simply doesn't know the assignment responsibilities, or the checks and adjustments that occur. With all this said, its no big deal because the NFL isn't using these grades for anything. They are ONLY using the raw data. The grades are certainly not going to come close to that of the accuracy of a coach on the player's team.

 

Now, its quite plain to see with just some basic experience watching the game of football (for one, watching other games in the league), that a player such as Ed Oliver in 2023 is either elite, or fringe elite at worst at his position. If one is going to sit there and try to justify his low PFF grades compared to his peers, then that someone simply has no hope of perceiving the game with any sort of accuracy. It is what it is.

[FilthyBeast]

PFF grades are whatever you want them to be.

 

For example if you think Ed Oliver isn't even graded out as a top 32 NFL DT despite having a career year so be it.

 

Same thing with Dodson being their #3 overall LB. Yes he's been better than expected this year but would you still take him over a healthy Milano (who I'm pretty sure has never been graded anywhere that high by PFF during his career).

 

I miss the good old days before all this advanced analytic nerd stuff even existed.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I could be wrong here and again, hope I will be corrected but I think actual coaches grading game film are not considering things like the contract of the player, the difficulty of the assignment, and the ability of the player when grading.  Those are things which are taken into account when "valuing the positions" and "ranking the players against positional value" which Beane has talked about the FO and coaches doing after the season.

 

I redirect to what @Buffalo716 said upthread since I know he knows something about it:

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/252639-once-and-for-allpffffffffft/page/3/#comment-8885301

 

The coaches grade on assignment, technique, and effort.  Did you "bring it" on that play?  Did you use good technique?  And did you "do your job"?  If a player (like AJ Klein filling in for Milano in 2020) is giving maximal effort and using sound technique, but simply can't complete his assignment because he's being asked to do things beyond his physical abilities, then the coaches need to see that and adjust his assignment to something within his physical capabilities while he's on the field, but it's not taken into account in the grade.

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I could be wrong here and again, hope I will be corrected but I think actual coaches grading game film are not considering things like the contract of the player, the difficulty of the assignment, and the ability of the player when grading.  Those are things which are taken into account when "valuing the positions" and "ranking the players against positional value" which Beane has talked about the FO and coaches doing after the season.

 

I redirect to what @Buffalo716 said upthread since I know he knows something about it:

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/252639-once-and-for-allpffffffffft/page/3/#comment-8885301

 

The coaches grade on assignment, technique, and effort.  Did you "bring it" on that play?  Did you use good technique?  And did you "do your job"?  If a player (like AJ Klein filling in for Milano in 2020) is giving maximal effort and using sound technique, but simply can't complete his assignment because he's being asked to do things beyond his physical abilities, then the coaches need to see that and adjust his assignment to something within his physical capabilities while he's on the field, but it's not taken into account in the grade.

 

 

I think PFF looks at every player more generically. Take DEs. PFF has a fairly rigid system for rating a rep from -2 to 2. On a pass rush rep it boils down to how quickly the DE beat the blocker (if at all) and whether they got a sack or hit the QB. There’s no chance that when the Steelers grade TJ Watt that they hold him to that generic standard. He’s too talented and too highly compensated to be judged by the same criteria as a JAG. His potential is too great to look at him the same way. 

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I could be wrong here and again, hope I will be corrected but I think actual coaches grading game film are not considering things like the contract of the player, the difficulty of the assignment, and the ability of the player when grading.  Those are things which are taken into account when "valuing the positions" and "ranking the players against positional value" which Beane has talked about the FO and coaches doing after the season.

 

I redirect to what @Buffalo716 said upthread since I know he knows something about it:

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/252639-once-and-for-allpffffffffft/page/3/#comment-8885301

 

The coaches grade on assignment, technique, and effort.  Did you "bring it" on that play?  Did you use good technique?  And did you "do your job"?  If a player (like AJ Klein filling in for Milano in 2020) is giving maximal effort and using sound technique, but simply can't complete his assignment because he's being asked to do things beyond his physical abilities, then the coaches need to see that and adjust his assignment to something within his physical capabilities while he's on the field, but it's not taken into account in the grade.

So say Klein played 20 snaps... That's means he could have a total of 60+

 

Say he got all 20 for effort and technique but only 3 for assignment

 

So 43-60... That's could be a loose grade of 71.... 

 

He is bringing the effort and playing the right technique... Just not finishing... Why is he not finishing? Can we put him in a better position? Is he just missing tackles? Are we asking to much physically out of him?

 

Yes, you can be ripped apart for your play in the NFL... And having only 3+ for assignments over 20 snaps isn't good 

 

And you will hear about it And see it on film...

 

But there's a difference between a LBr who gets 3+ for assignments... Because he is blowing his coverage or freelancing... Hurting the team 

 

Vs a LBr who gets 3+ for assignments but he is playing disciplined, maximum effort... The results just aren't there 

 

One guy is going to get chewed out a lot more

Edited January 18 by Buffalo716

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

I think PFF looks at every player more generically. Take DEs. PFF has a fairly rigid system for rating a rep from -2 to 2. On a pass rush rep it boils down to how quickly the DE beat the blocker (if at all) and whether they got a sack or hit the QB. There’s no chance that when the Steelers grade TJ Watt that they hold him to that generic standard. He’s too talented and too highly compensated to be judged by the same criteria as a JAG. His potential is too great to look at him the same way. 

 

I was thinking that might fold into 'assignment', but maybe not - we're way over my knowledge here.

 

One example of what you mean, I think, would be a game the Bills played against KC a while ago.  I forget who it was, might have been Baldy, might have been Cover1, but they did a breakdown of how the Bills used Milano in that game, and it was basically like a "super Spy"  where the Bills D was playing to influence which direction Mahomes would go when he flushed out of the backfield, then Milano would be waiting to tackle him.   It was really well explained and it was clearly a successful game plan where Milano had a huge impact on the outcome of the game and Mahomes gained very few yards.

 

As I recall, PFF graded him abysmally for that game, presumably because he wasn't covering guys or tackling RBs and they had no idea what his assignment actually was.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I was thinking that might fold into 'assignment', but maybe not - we're way over my knowledge here.

 

One example of what you mean, I think, would be a game the Bills played against KC a while ago.  I forget who it was, might have been Baldy, might have been Cover1, but they did a breakdown of how the Bills used Milano in that game, and it was basically like a "super Spy"  where the Bills D was playing to influence which direction Mahomes would go when he flushed out of the backfield, then Milano would be waiting to tackle him.   It was really well explained and it was clearly a successful game plan where Milano had a huge impact on the outcome of the game and Mahomes gained very few yards.

 

As I recall, PFF graded him abysmally for that game, presumably because he wasn't covering guys or tackling RBs and they had no idea what his assignment actually was.

 

That’s the other thing with PFF - they have to take semi-educated guesses as to what a player’s assignment is on every single play. You give a good example of them guessing incorrectly. Besides, how often is a player’s assignment more nuanced? In this situation your primary responsibility is to spy the QB. Secondarily it is to cover space or a player. Next play it flips due to circumstance. And then there are players like Troy Polamalu, who freelanced by design on most plays. How do you grade that?

[JoPoy88]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

That’s the other thing with PFF - they have to take semi-educated guesses as to what a player’s assignment is on every single play. You give a good example of them guessing incorrectly. Besides, how often is a player’s assignment more nuanced? In this situation your primary responsibility is to spy the QB. Secondarily it is to cover space or a player. Next play it flips due to circumstance. And then there are players like Troy Polamalu, who freelanced by design on most plays. How do you grade that?

I don’t think they even get that deep into it. They aren’t predicting assignments at all. They’re looking at play outcomes only. 

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

PFF's fundamental flaw is they don't properly weigh the plays according to importance. With Oliver they consistently give him very high pass rush grades but very low run stop grades. Against the Steelers his pass rush grade was 90.9 which is top of the top elite, while his run stop grade was 33.9 which is bottom of the bottom terrible. His total grade ended up being 65.3 which is decent starter level... But Oliver is a pass rusher. That's where his value lies. Mixing run stops with pass rushes is not really a proper evaluation of his value as a player. And that's before getting into the numerous other issues inherent to PFF's grading system.

 

Ed Oliver is a terrific run stopper.. he played nose tackle at Houston 

 

In fact coming into the league he was a much better run stuffer than pass rusher hence why he didn't get a lot of sacks

 

He didn't have any pass rush moves

 

But he was and still is a beast at run stuffing.. if you run at him he anchors on doubles

 

If you run away from him he can split and chase you down...

 

Literally has the most tackles for loss for a pure defensive tackle in the NFL... He's a animal in the run game 

 

 

Edited January 19 by Buffalo716

[JerseyBills]

We all knew this was the case, it's simply impossible for pff or anyone outside of any organization to know the play call, design etc.. 

PFF has a place in football but we've all seen countless guys ball out and get a crappy grade and vice versa. 

It's just impossible to know a players assignment on everey single play , which makes them way less valid