TheFunPolice Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) who is injured and when matters too. The 49ers couldn't throw a forward pass for almost all of the NFC Championship game. If Brock Purdy gets grabbed a few inches lower on the arm, more toward the elbow, his UCL probably doesn't get hurt. Or if the DL was a few inches higher up and missed his hand entirely, his elbow doesn't get impacted. The whole game goes differently. Or if the injury happens in the 4th quarter when the 49ers are leading by 10 (just an example) maybe they get the plane landed and win. But it happened the first drive, which allowed enough time for the backup to ALSO get hurt. Edited January 4 by TheFunPolice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 ALSO, consider Super Bowl #4: the Bills Cowboys rematch. It's Bills 13, Dallas 6 at halftime. Bills get the ball coming out of the half. If you watch the 4 falls documentary, Troy Aikman had such a bad concussion that Dallas was worried they wouldn't be able to pass much in the 2nd half. The Bills were dominating the game, but the score didn't show it. Some guys on Dallas were already thinking "well, looks like those guys (the Bills) are finally going to get one" We start moving the ball after halftime. Then, Thurman fumbles and it's returned for a TD. 13-13. The team just deflated. Imagine (speaking of variance) Thurman doesn't fumble and we drive down and make it 20-6 in the middle of the 3rd quarter. Now you've got a guy seeing stars out there trying to throw the ball. Back in those days 20-6 pretty much meant game over, but especially if Aikman had that type of injury. 14 points would have been the greatest SB comeback of all time. In short, the Bills would have won the game, finally got a SB, and the entire legacy of that team is different. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 20 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: We fans believe heart and soul that with Josh Allen we should win at least one Super Bowl. More than one, really. When you have a talent like that, unless your coach is an idiot, you ought to be hoisting multiple Lombardis. Belichick won 6 rings with Brady. Reid has 2 so far with Mahomes. We're still waiting for McD to cash in after winning the QB lottery. The contrarians point out that the QB is just 1 of 22 offensive & defensive starters. The entire roster matters. Let's not make too much out of the QB, they say. After all, the Ravens won a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer. QBs don't win Super Bowls, teams do. But here's another angle. It's not just that a team with a bad/mediocre QB can win the SB. Teams with good QBs often fail. My fellow Boilermaker, Drew Brees, played 20 years and only won one. He was OPOY twice, led the NFL in yards 7 times, and went to 13 Pro Bowls. If not for Tom Brady and all his rings, Brees would be in the GOAT conversation. And his Head Coach most of his career was Sean Payton, widely regarded as a coaching wunderkind and offensive genius. As great as Brees was, the chances of his team winning it all in any given year was a mere 5%. The average team has a 3% chance (1 in 32) of winning the Super Bowl. Brees only elevated their probability by 2%. And Drew was fortunate just to get that one ring. Dan Marino, one the greatest pure passers I've ever seen, never won a Lombardi despite having Don Shula, the winningest coach in NFL history, as his HC. This is a dream duo: HOF coach with HOF QB. It should have produced an SB victory. It didn't. Marino isn't the only great QB shut out. That unhappy list also includes Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and several others including - sadly - our own Jim Kelly. The message of history is clear. It's hard to win the SB with a mediocre QB but not impossible. It's easier with a great QB but not a guarantee - even with a good coach. I hate to say this but maybe we need to temper our expectations. 32 teams, 1 Lombardi. The odds aren't good. Even with Josh. I agree, but I’d alter one thing slightly - it’s huge to have an elite QB or a good QB who can play at an elite level in the playoffs. Eli Manning was not a great QB. Nor was Joe Flacco. But Eli balled out in the playoffs twice and Flacco once (so far). That can get you there too. I’m sure that there are other examples. Some players just have ann innate ability to let loose and go on a run when pressure is greatest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HomeskillitMoorman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This is a McD apologist topic. "No matter if we win a Superbowl or not with an elite talent at QB, McD is a great coach!" 10 hours ago, Governor said: You don’t need an elite QB, but you do need your QB, however good he is, to have an elite playoff run or season. Hurts, a pretty crappy QB, had an elite season and almost won. In a way, he did choke that game away at the end. Eagles offense got stuffed, KC got the punt return, game was over. Brad Johnson, another crappy QB, had an excellent post season and blew out the Raiders in the SB. Didn’t choke. Marino always choked. He was usually the reason why his team lost. Moon and Kelly same thing. All choked at crucial moments. With how well he’s playing, Flacco could definitely get to and win another SB this year. He was at one time viewed as elite. Didn’t choke in his game. Doesn’t have the choke gene. One question left to be answered. Is Josh a choker or a champion? Does he have the gene? McD is obviously a choker but sometimes a team is good enough to overcome a choking coach. Andy Reid and Wade Philips, two of the biggest chokers of all time, finally had a good enough team to overcome. It is possible. But don’t be mistaken, the gene is still inside of them. There’s no doubt in my mind that Reid would blow it again if you put the game in his hands late. You can’t suppress the gene forever and it always shows itself at the worst times. You can see it on his face. FEAR Agreed. Josh WAS having an elite playoff run 2 years ago. McD choked that way with 13 seconds. That's one of the big problems we all have with McD. You can't blow it when your QB is that hot at the right time. That's not going to happen most times you make the postseason. Another big problem is while Reid also has his issues, he's more proficient on his side of the ball than McD is on his. McD's D has given it up in every big moment in every postseason. Reid's game management sucks but largely the Chiefs offense has come up big when it's needed to the most. So yeah the Chiefs still have to deal with it, but they're getting more ROI for their coach's shortcomings than we are. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chongli Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 hours ago, Governor said: Is Josh a choker or a champion? Does he have the gene? A Baltimore posted this, which is probably how a lot of fans feel:. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 hours ago, Beck Water said: A little bit of the Devil's Advocate here. While Brady was, in his prime, unquestionably an Elite of Elites as a QB, was Brady really elite in that Superbowl he won? -in the NFCCG, he threw 3 interceptions. -his completion % in the playoffs were 55, 55, 56 and 72% in the Superbowl -threw for less than 200 net yards in the Superbowl The real hero of that SB IMHO was Tampa Bay's defense, which picked Mahomes twice, forced a fumble (they didn't recover), held tight coverage, and harried, harrassed, and bothered Mahomes all day long. The QB we saw for Tampa wasn't quite "the ghost of Tom Brady" but you could see his ghost from there. Similar with Stafford. Stafford had a 12 year career on a bad team where he was often way up the leaderboard for passing yards, but was regarded as a great passer who would make key gaffs at bad times. He didn't have a history of probowls or NFL MVPs. 1 PB I think. And indeed, in his Superbowl year with the Rams, he led the league with 17 interceptions. In the Superbowl, he threw 2 INTs and had kind of a "meh" passer rating of 89.9. Burrow was 100.9. The Rams defense sacked Burrow 7 times and hit him 11 times, such that even though Burrow had statistically a much better day and Higgins and Chase both "went off", they couldn't sustain enough drives. I kind of see that Rams win as in part overcoming Stafford's gaffs instead of led by elite QB play from Stafford. Just my opinion. But doesn't this just illustrate that even the elite QB's can have bad games? Remember Mahomes stunk up the joint against NE in an AFC title game before having a brilliant 2nd half. There is more to the advantage an elite QB gives a team going to and winning a Super Bowl then their play. There is an aura of confidence they bestow on the whole team that is difficult to quantify but IMO very real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1onemangang7 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Here comes Purdy 🤣 20 hours ago, TheFunPolice said: who is injured and when matters too. The 49ers couldn't throw a forward pass for almost all of the NFC Championship game. If Brock Purdy gets grabbed a few inches lower on the arm, more toward the elbow, his UCL probably doesn't get hurt. Or if the DL was a few inches higher up and missed his hand entirely, his elbow doesn't get impacted. The whole game goes differently. Or if the injury happens in the 4th quarter when the 49ers are leading by 10 (just an example) maybe they get the plane landed and win. But it happened the first drive, which allowed enough time for the backup to ALSO get hurt. He's been knocked out of any game he's had real pressure. I'll go on the limb and say this is his last season starting in San Francisco. He might Baker like somewhere else then fade off. The Cowboys haven't pressured hom yet so I think they get him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) No, elite QB are not necessary but there are not many teams who have won a SB without QBs who have had HoF careers Quote There have been 57 Super Bowl winners so far. Twenty-eight teams were led by a quarterback who made the Hall of Fame. Another 13 were led by a quarterback who will eventually make the Hall of Fame (Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger). Forty-one out of 57 teams (71.9 percent) were led by a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback. WIlson and Flacco have a chance but I don't think they will make it. I may have missed a QB or 2 deserving of the list below. Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs and Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett (Marcus Allen), 1 TD Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann (John Riggins), 2 TDs Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon (Richard Dent), 0 TDs Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler (Ottis Anderson), 1 TD Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs Edited January 5 by ddaryl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyMannn Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) On 1/3/2024 at 5:54 PM, hondo in seattle said: The contrarians point out that the QB is just 1 of 22 offensive & defensive starters. If this were true, then QB's wouldn't be making $50m a year I recall hearing this point a couple years ago that I thought was interesting. Took a combined 38 years for Brees & Rodgers to each get a NFC title. Took Brady One Edited January 5 by MarkyMannn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 47 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said: I recall hearing this point a couple years ago that I thought was interesting. Took a combined 38 years for Brees & Rodgers to each get a NFC title. Took Brady One https://www.foxsports.com/nfl-super-bowl-starting-qbs Aaron Rogers / GB won the NFC and the SB in Rogers 6th year in the league 2010 Drew Brees / NO Saints won the NFC and the SB in Brees 9th year. 2009 Neither QB has made a 2nd SB appearance. So the real answer if 15 years here Brady won the SB in his 2nd season but his 1st season starting. Also note Brady has 10 SB appearances Edited January 5 by ddaryl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yes, elite QBs win Super Bowls. At the very least, QBs that play at an elite level during their stretch win super bowls. Of all the QBs to have ever won a SB, only a small handful could be definitively said to not be elite, imo. However, Just because you have an elite QB doesn't mean you're going to win it, especially when you play at a time of multiple active top 5 greatest QBs of all time. Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath (MVP), 0 TDs Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 5. John Unitas (Chuck Howley), 1 TD Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese (Jake Scott), 1 TD Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese (Larry Csonka), 0 TDs Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw (Franco Harris), 1 TD Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw (Lynn Swann), 2 TDs Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler (Fred Biletnikoff), 1 TD Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach (Harvey Martin & Randy White), 1 TDs Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 4 TDs Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann (John Riggins), 2 TDs, Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett (Marcus Allen), 1 TD Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon (Richard Dent), 0 TDs Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana (Jerry Rice), 2 TDs Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana (MVP), 5 TDs Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler (Ottis Anderson), 1 TD Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 56: Matthew Stafford (Cooper Kupp), 3 TDs Super Bowl 57: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 3 TDs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donuts and Doritos Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dan Marino & Jim Kelly say Hi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyMannn Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 52 minutes ago, ddaryl said: https://www.foxsports.com/nfl-super-bowl-starting-qbs Aaron Rogers / GB won the NFC and the SB in Rogers 6th year in the league 2010 Drew Brees / NO Saints won the NFC and the SB in Brees 9th year. 2009 Neither QB has made a 2nd SB appearance. So the real answer if 15 years here Brady won the SB in his 2nd season but his 1st season starting. Also note Brady has 10 SB appearances What I meant is they got one each in 38 years total, a NFC title. I stated Brady got his NFC title in one year which is correct 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said: What I meant is they got one each in 38 years total, a NFC title. I stated Brady got his NFC title in one year which is correct Yeah I did not read it that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Grundy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 hours ago, BarleyNY said: I agree, but I’d alter one thing slightly - it’s huge to have an elite QB or a good QB who can play at an elite level in the playoffs. Eli Manning was not a great QB. Nor was Joe Flacco. But Eli balled out in the playoffs twice and Flacco once (so far). That can get you there too. I’m sure that there are other examples. Some players just have ann innate ability to let loose and go on a run when pressure is greatest. Yep. It comes down to balls as much as talent 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 hours ago, TheFunPolice said: ALSO, consider Super Bowl #4: the Bills Cowboys rematch. It's Bills 13, Dallas 6 at halftime. Bills get the ball coming out of the half. If you watch the 4 falls documentary, Troy Aikman had such a bad concussion that Dallas was worried they wouldn't be able to pass much in the 2nd half. The Bills were dominating the game, but the score didn't show it. Some guys on Dallas were already thinking "well, looks like those guys (the Bills) are finally going to get one" We start moving the ball after halftime. Then, Thurman fumbles and it's returned for a TD. 13-13. The team just deflated. Imagine (speaking of variance) Thurman doesn't fumble and we drive down and make it 20-6 in the middle of the 3rd quarter. Now you've got a guy seeing stars out there trying to throw the ball. Back in those days 20-6 pretty much meant game over, but especially if Aikman had that type of injury. 14 points would have been the greatest SB comeback of all time. In short, the Bills would have won the game, finally got a SB, and the entire legacy of that team is different. This is all very true, but unfortunately the whole existence of the Bills has been predicated on the word "IF".... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrBob806 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/3/2024 at 8:39 PM, stuvian said: It may be football sacrilege to say it but I think Shula is a failure for not winning with Marino. I think he was still calling the personnel shots in Miami when Jimmy Johnson became coach. Could be. I think Marino really only trusted Duper & Clayton, so that's on Marino IMHO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Times have changed. From Super Bowl 1 through XXXIII 1/3 of the Super Bowls were won by a QB who was the #1 overall pick in the draft. In the 24 SBs from 2000-2023 only 5 of the 24 Super Bowls were won by a QB who was the #1 overall pick. The % dropped from 33% to less than 21%. I used to use the data to support tanking. In 2018 Beane taught me that you don't need the #1 pick to get the draft's best QB, although I still believe your best shot is with a top 10 pick. Teams that are looking for the next Brady, or even Purdy may spend decades drafting late round QBs with nothing to show for those picks. Just look at all the QBs the Bills drafted between Kelly & Allen. It took a top 10 pick 22 years after Kelly's last game to find the Bills next franchise QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/4/2024 at 8:12 PM, TheFunPolice said: ALSO, consider Super Bowl #4: the Bills Cowboys rematch. It's Bills 13, Dallas 6 at halftime. Bills get the ball coming out of the half. If you watch the 4 falls documentary, Troy Aikman had such a bad concussion that Dallas was worried they wouldn't be able to pass much in the 2nd half. The Bills were dominating the game, but the score didn't show it. Some guys on Dallas were already thinking "well, looks like those guys (the Bills) are finally going to get one" We start moving the ball after halftime. Then, Thurman fumbles and it's returned for a TD. 13-13. The team just deflated. Imagine (speaking of variance) Thurman doesn't fumble and we drive down and make it 20-6 in the middle of the 3rd quarter. Now you've got a guy seeing stars out there trying to throw the ball. Back in those days 20-6 pretty much meant game over, but especially if Aikman had that type of injury. 14 points would have been the greatest SB comeback of all time. In short, the Bills would have won the game, finally got a SB, and the entire legacy of that team is different. Was at this game. Georgia Dome. You felt the swing after that fumble. Gut punch. It was so bad Thurman could not go back in for a while afterwards. Something he never did before or after. It still hurts. Anyway, thanks for the trip down memory lane! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) 20 hours ago, ddaryl said: No, elite QB are not necessary but there are not many teams who have won a SB without QBs who have had HoF careers WIlson and Flacco have a chance but I don't think they will make it. I may have missed a QB or 2 deserving of the list below. That is recency bias because he has fallen off the cliff so quickly and is a kind of a weird dude. I feel Russell Wilson will definitely make the HOF. He was never the best QB in the league but for each season from 2013 to 2019 he was unquestionably a top five QB maybe as high as second best in 2019, he won one Super Bowl and went to another. The NFL HOF is not the baseball HOF, it should be more than enough to get in. Edited January 6 by Billy Claude 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirAndrew Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/4/2024 at 9:16 AM, CincyBillsFan said: Eight of the last 9 Super Bowl winning teams have been led by elite QB's including the last 5 in a row (Brady, Stafford & Mahomes). So things seem to have changed. I agree, there is some luck involved, but QB in the modern NFL holds a more significant role in the outcome of the game. The 90’s were a different era with guys like Marino and Kelly. Those players won a lot of games, but it was also possible to neutralize them in the playoffs. That was an era where defense could rough up the passer, and play very physically against receivers. Modern rules are setup to help QB’s succeed. The NFL wants elite QB’s in the Super Bowl. In todays NFL, it’s fair to ask how great a QB is if they don’t have a title. I don’t mean this as a comment on Josh, as he has time, but more about determining greatness when looking back at a career. Players from the 90’s and early eras should be assessed differently. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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