Beane's draft record - with several players emerging, has your opinion changed at all?

[Bob in STL]

1 hour ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

Serious question - could Elam possibly play safety?  I know he is a man to man corner, but he has good size and speed and could have tremendous range back there if he has the instincts.

He tackles like my grandmother.  No.  Not in this kind of defense where safeties have play more like linebackers on run plays.  

[hondo in seattle]

Beane has built a good team.  There's a reason why we've been AFCE champs.

 

But it is not - and has not been - a Super Bowl-quality roster.  There's a reason why we don't have Lombardi (yet).  

 

 

[Einstein]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It is the same to me - good not great. Because my view on Beane has always been he drafts very few busts.

 

This is my exactly my thoughts.

 

We could do a lot worse than Beane.

 

However, i’d be lying if I said I wish he was able to draft a couple more true impact players. 
 

Lots of “good”. Only 1 “great”. In 44 attempts.

[SCBills]

I took Allen out of the equation because Beane basically earns 10 mulligans by drafting an elite QB. 
 

Outside Allen, I went “average” heading into this season.   Now I view his drafts as “good”. 
 

Still have some frustrations with how long some guys take to develop and we could really have used more investment at WR, but to have a young core now of Bernard, Benford, Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, Brown and Torrence on rookie contracts for next year is where we need to be year in/year out to stay a contender.  
 

My other criticism was his lack of drafting elite players .. lots of very good players .. but Kincaid & Oliver look to be alleviating that concern. 
 

 

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

That's fair, Alpha, and I don't disagree that acquiring a player using a draft pick should count the same as drafting him, more or less.

The only nit I would pick is that the 1st round pick used to get Stefon Diggs was ultimately used to pick Justin Jefferson, who is arguably the best WR in the league, and is still just 24 years old. So the Bills would have had arguably a better (or, at the minimum, just as good) receiver, who's 5 years younger. They would have had him on a rookie contract for four to five seasons, freeing up the big bucks during those years that were allocated to Diggs.

I know, I know: Diggs has been a culture builder and team leader, and has brought out the best in Josh, and we can't be sure that Jefferson would have done any of those things, etc, etc...I understand all of that. Still, I can't help but wonder what a Josh Allen to Justin Jefferson connection could have looked like for 15 or so years. Could have been a historically great QB-WR connection.

So yes, I believe it's fair to count trades that Beane made using draft picks in his favor, but only if one also considers who was picked in the spot he traded out of. And in this case, the player picked in the spot he traded out of takes a little bit of the shine off of his trade.

 

Fair points as well...however couple things about that in a minor counter as you already covered most of them:

1. We don't know for sure Jefferson would have been our pick if we didn't make the trade.  Remember, Beane said they made the trade because they did not expect a WR they would want would last until their pick.  And that was the year where the big 3 were Ruggs, Jeudy, and Lamb and all were highly anticipated to go before our pick.  As elite as Jefferson is, he wasn't a sure fire pick there as some questioned how he would fare on the outside in the NFL.  
2. The staff wanted to be sure they landed a sure fire stud at WR to help Josh's development, and the draft is a crap shoot regardless of the prospect rank.  Ruggs was doing very little before he ruined his career and Jeudy has been a bust in regards to his draft hype.  Lamb has not been the receiver Diggs was either and really this year finally starting to show true WR1 top end ability.  And those were all the 3 consensus top guys and Jefferson was firmly behind them.

So yeah, we could have had Jefferson, and he was good out the gate.  But there was no way to know that pre-draft that he would be the best WR in the draft, and Diggs was exactly what they wanted both in personality and ability.  Adding Diggs brought not only that WR1 to help Josh take the next step, but it brought swagger and a passion to win that is matched by few, something this locker room needed.

 

And I was a guy assumed those 3 would be gone and Jefferson was my top choice of who we thought would be there.  And many posters here didn't like Jefferson.  But when the trade happened I was still ecstatic as I will take the known top end talent over a rookie roll of the dice every time, especially when Josh was on his rookie deal and we didn't have cap concerns.  

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Beane has built a good team.  There's a reason why we've been AFCE champs.

 

But it is not - and has not been - a Super Bowl-quality roster.  There's a reason why we don't have Lombardi (yet).  

 

 

We've been super bowl favorites the last few years.. Von came here because he said he thought he could win a super bowl

 

We've been the favorites in the media over the last couple years

 

Vegas pundits and players disagree that we have not been a super bowl quality roster... We just haven't put it all together to win it

 

Spoiler alert only one team does every year

Edited November 21, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Logic]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Fair points as well...however couple things about that in a minor counter as you already covered most of them:

1. We don't know for sure Jefferson would have been our pick if we didn't make the trade.  Remember, Beane said they made the trade because they did not expect a WR they would want would last until their pick.  And that was the year where the big 3 were Ruggs, Jeudy, and Lamb and all were highly anticipated to go before our pick.  As elite as Jefferson is, he wasn't a sure fire pick there as some questioned how he would fare on the outside in the NFL.  
2. The staff wanted to be sure they landed a sure fire stud at WR to help Josh's development, and the draft is a crap shoot regardless of the prospect rank.  Ruggs was doing very little before he ruined his career and Jeudy has been a bust in regards to his draft hype.  Lamb has not been the receiver Diggs was either and really this year finally starting to show true WR1 top end ability.  And those were all the 3 consensus top guys and Jefferson was firmly behind them.

So yeah, we could have had Jefferson, and he was good out the gate.  But there was no way to know that pre-draft that he would be the best WR in the draft, and Diggs was exactly what they wanted both in personality and ability.  Adding Diggs brought not only that WR1 to help Josh take the next step, but it brought swagger and a passion to win that is matched by few, something this locker room needed.

 

And I was a guy assumed those 3 would be gone and Jefferson was my top choice of who we thought would be there.  And many posters here didn't like Jefferson.  But when the trade happened I was still ecstatic as I will take the known top end talent over a rookie roll of the dice every time, especially when Josh was on his rookie deal and we didn't have cap concerns.  

I won't quibble with or dispute anything you say here, EXCEPT to say this:

Beane's drafting acumen is exactly what we're talking about here.

If he and his scouts weren't able to identify Justin Jefferson as a potential bona fide #1 NFL wide receiver, that can only go AGAINST him in the discussion about how good of a drafter he is. I realize he wasn't the only one. Multiple teams and analysts and fans missed, and hindsight is 20/20. I'm only saying that it's Beane and his draft scouts' JOB to look at prospects and determine their ability to be good players in the NFL. If they studied Jefferson and decided that he wasn't worth the pick and that they should instead use it (plus other capital, plus a bunch of money on an eventual contract extension) to get Diggs instead, then I can only see that as at least a minor indictment on Beane as a drafter.

Again, I fully understand WHY the Bills traded for Diggs instead, I fully understand that the draft is a crapshoot, and I have no problem with the trade as it happened. I view it as the rare true win-win for both teams, as far as NFL trades go. Vikes got to start fresh and wound up with a top 3 stud WR. Bills got a leader, alpha, and elite veteran receiver who helped up their QB's game and produce some historic offensive output. But if "ability to draft" is what's being discussed, then in my opinion, Beane should be dinged a little bit for getting the older, more expensive guy, rather than having identified Jefferson as a guy worth drafting and developing.

EDIT: Ironically, this same thinking can be applied to the Mahomes trade, which happened before Beane arrived. Yes, the outcome was ultimately good for the Bills: they wound up with Tre'Davious White and ultimately wound up with a great one in Josh Allen. It doesn't change the fact that they traded away the pick that was used to take the guy who may go down as the greatest quarterback to ever play football. A positive outcome from a traded pick doesn't completely erase the consideration of the player that was taken with that pick instead and how that player would have impacted the Bills had the pick not been traded, in my estimation. Boy that was a mouthful.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Logic

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Seems like Beane has a planned tendency top draft players based on potential more than other teams do.  As a result of this it often takes longer for the player to start to showcase himself.  

 

That's a real problem here on TBD as most here have little to no patience for that.  We need them to become stars right away.  Factoring in injuries often extends the timeline even longer.

 

There are risks in doing that because some never develop as thought like Edmunds.  Others Knox AJ, Brown, even Oliver took longer than hoped for.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Positional value. A linebacker who struggles in coverage and a running back is bad value from two top 20 picks. 

 

I still dislike it. And neither of those players have been that good. 

 

No offense, but no GM or Coach cares at all about "positional value" once the draft is done.  That is jargon for fans and draft pundits and has no relevancy in the real football world.  It's about what those guys do on the football field...whether or not they took a player a littler earlier than draft analysts or mock drafters suggested is not something they remotely care about.  

 

And they took 4 starters in the first 2 rounds that have helped them to an 8-2 record and in the hunt for the #1 seed in the NFC.  I doubt many are negatively questioning their Gibbs selection anymore. 

 

And not sure why you think Gibbs hasn't been very good, he has 5 TD's in his last 4 games since he took on a bigger role with Montgomery went down.  He has almost 800 total yards despite being in a timeshare with TD vulture Montgomery for a large part of the season too.  Gibbs and LaPorta are a big part of their offense and look to be forces for them this year and the foreseeable future.  

 

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, Logic said:

I won't quibble with or dispute anything you say here, EXCEPT to say this:

Beane's drafting acumen is exactly what we're talking about here.

If he and his scouts weren't able to identify Justin Jefferson as a potential bona fide #1 NFL wide receiver, that can only go AGAINST him in the discussion about how good of a drafter he is. 

 

I didn't say that though, I said we don't know if they still would have gone WR once the big 3 were gone.  They liked Diggs more than the remaining rookie prospects is all we know, and its not like he was wrong about Diggs.  Jefferson may have very well still been the pick.

 

And you can't blame Beane or any GM for that matter for not knowing Jefferson would be this good, no one knew he would be and that is an impossible thing to know for anyone.  

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

We've been super bowl favorites the last few years.. Von came here because he said he thought he could win a super bowl

 

We've been the favorites in the media over the last couple years

 

Vegas pundits and players disagree that we have not been a super bowl quality roster... We just haven't put it all together to win it

 

Spoiler alert only one team does every year

 

As I recall, we've never been "favorites."   At the beginning of the last few seasons, the pundits, casinos, and analytical sites mostly had KC - and sometimes other teams - ahead of us in terms of probability.  

But I don't really care about any of that.  I care about reality as best as I can see it.  And from my vantage point, we've never had the league's best roster.  Or even the AFC's best roster.  So, a Super Bowl has never been very likely.

 

Sometimes, I think about it like this:  There are a few good teams in each conference each year each with a roughly 10% chance of winning the SB, plus or minus a few points.  For the past few years, we've been one of those teams.  In other words, the odds were always against us.   They're just not as long as they are for a crap team like the Pats.  

 

I'm grateful that Beane and McD have gotten us into the hunt.  But to improve our chances, the roster needs to get better.  

[Gugny]

I think if Beane was paired with a coaching staff who actually wanted to use the offensive players he’s drafted, then his grades would be much higher. 
 

But he’s been saddled with a HC who doesn’t like to play rookies, inexplicably benches young players, and under-or-mis-utilizes them - it’s difficult to look successful. 
 

We’ve all seen Singletary and Moss do we’ll post-McDermott. 
 

We all saw Beane give everything but his left nut to get a pass-catching RB in Hines … only to see him become a special teams player. 
 

We have all seen what Shakir can do when he’s actually on the field. 
 

So I have a difficult time condemning Beane … to an extent. 
 

I do think he took too long to address the O line and I do think he’s erred by not getting a legitimate WR2 to complement Diggs. 
 

But overall, I think a lot of his “misses,” are more of an overt disconnect between himself and his coaching staff. 

[Drew21PA]

Ya know I’d he hits ona few offensive linemen and another wr threat - could have in house rebuilt the team without a rebuild needed - now that would be inpressive

 

 

tb 43 and Milano are going to be FUN to watch together for a few yesrs

 

dominant limebackers 

 

front 4 looking good

 

idk I’m optimistic now despite how the season has gone in terms of a record 

 

 

 

[The Jokeman]

3 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

 

Then we have to keep your grandma at CB but might have to release her unfortunately. 

 

 

Great post OP.  I would also add in

 

Dane Jackson

Dawson Knox

Harrison Phillips

Wyatt Teller

Taron Johnson. 

 

I would also add that trading a #1 pick for a top 5 WR every year is pretty solid value as well.

Considering what the Vikings haven't done with as good as Jefferson been and unsure what they got from the rest of picks it was a good trade for us but admit when it first got announced I thought we gave up way too much.

[Dopey]

9 hours ago, ProcessImproverMan said:

I'd much rather have John Lynch as a GM (49ers) or the Eagles guy or Chiefs guy...they seem to have hit on more picks and free agents. Their teams have made it to super bowls and not fallen out before like Marty Schottenheimer like teams. 

 

Rousseau isn't putting up the sack numbers worth the pick on him. Von Miller has been a huge waste. Oliver isn't either and we passed on much better DTs and other positional  players when taking him (Dexter Lawrence was available who is a monster DT, as well as Jaire Alexander (stud corner) and Fred Warner who has been a stud MLB for the 49ers and would have been much better than the failed Edmunds experiment). Elam has been a bust. We took Cody Ford over Metcalf and then had to spend a draft pick to get Diggs which is what Metcalf would have given us (better explosive deep threat). And we took Boogie Basham over Creed Humphrey who is a stud center. And gave up Wyatt Teller. All those moves have been very bad and our offensive line and defense has suffered for it particularly, as well as our explosive deep ball game. 

Lynch?  Can people here imagine if Beane screwed up drafting a qb like Lynch did. Quote below from an article about it. 
“Over the 2021, 2022 and 2023 drafts, the 49ers traded 12th, 29th, 101st and 29th picks for the privilege of taking Lance. One of those picks was used to choose Micah Parsons, one of football’s best defensive players.”

So, he trades a boat load for Lance, Dallas drafts Parsons with one of the picks AND then end up trading him TO DALLAS for a 4th. Somehow Lynch made Jerry look like an actual GM who knows what he’s doing. IMO that’s enough to remove Lynch from that list. Again, what would this place be like if Beane effed up that bad?

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I didn't say that though, I said we don't know if they still would have gone WR once the big 3 were gone.  They liked Diggs more than the remaining rookie prospects is all we know, and its not like he was wrong about Diggs.  Jefferson may have very well still been the pick.

 

And you can't blame Beane or any GM for that matter for not knowing Jefferson would be this good, no one knew he would be and that is an impossible thing to know for anyone.  

He went 22nd. You know who went 21st? WR Jalen Reagor. Drafted by fan favorite of their gm here (Philly). Reagor lasted 2 years in Philly and has bounced around 2 more teams since. Beane would never live that one down if he made that pick. For all the hoopla KC gets, they drafted RB Helaire in the first round of that same draft. Only to have him replaced with a 7th rd rb. All praise to KC for drafting Pacheco here, forgetting (conveniently?) that first round bust of a pick. It happens to every gm. 
Go Bills and go Beane!!!

You too McD!!!

Edited November 22, 2023 by Dopey

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, Dopey said:

He went 22nd. You know who went 21st? WR Jalen Reagor. Drafted by fan favorite of their gm here (Philly). Reagor lasted 2 years in Philly and has bounced around 2 more teams since. Beane would never live that one down if he made that pick. For all the hoopla KC gets, they drafted RB Helaire in the first round of that same draft. Only to have him replaced with a 7th rd rb. All praise to KC for drafting Pacheco here, forgetting (conveniently?) that first round bust of a pick. It happens to every gm. 
Go Bills and go Beane!!!

You too McD!!!

 

All great points too

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Drew21PA said:

Ya know I’d he hits ona few offensive linemen and another wr threat - could have in house rebuilt the team without a rebuild needed - now that would be inpressive

 

 

tb 43 and Milano are going to be FUN to watch together for a few yesrs

 

dominant limebackers 

 

front 4 looking good

 

idk I’m optimistic now despite how the season has gone in terms of a record 

 

 

 

Front 4, we’ll see…

 

We have Von, Rousseau, Jonathan and Oliver under contract next year.  
 

Id expect them to bring back Lawson and Phillips for cheap again. 
 

Epenesa is pretty close to where I’d offer a long term contract.  
 

Outside of them, we’ll see what they do with Floyd and Jones.  
 

Id love to bring back Floyd but I think cap-wise we have to bank that fully recovered Von is next years Floyd.  
 

Jones is another question mark.   Love him, but might make more sense to draft a 1T on Day 2 to pair with Oliver. 
 

At some point, our cap doesn’t allow us to bring back guys like Floyd and Jones on one, maybe two year deals.  Epenesa could be backloaded in to a 3 or 4 year deal. 

[billsfan89]

Beane is a very good drafter. This regime is certainly top 10 in the league in terms of drafting. 
 

2018 was a home run draft, beyond landing Josh, Taron Johnson is a stud on defense and Neal is a quality ST player. They also got 5 years of starting caliber play from Edumonds (plus a comp pick) some decent production from H Phillips. 
 

2019-2021 were probably average caliber drafts. 2019 Ed has finally emerged as the dominant player we all wanted, Knox and Singletary were also productive picks. 2020 AJE was a slow burn but he came on strong this season, Bass has been an elite kicker, Gabe and Dane have also produced. 2021 has thus far yielded solid starters in Groot and Brown. Each draft has yielded multiple starters but also had a good share of missed picks (Boogie and Cody Ford being the glaring examples). 

 

2022 and 2023 however are looking to be really good drafts. In 22 they got Cook and Shakir who on offense and Benford and Bernard on defense. Elam also still has plenty of time to turn it around and provide further value.

 

2023 is looking very good esp given the limited picks. Kincaid and Torrence have been plug and play starters while D Williams has flashed a lot of upside. Shorter is also someone that will get a chance to develop in 2024. 

[cgang]

But is beane  a good decision maker on talent?  How is Von doing?  How are the decisions that have lead to cap jail doing?  Btw I am not saying he should be fired.  It is interesting that we are focused on McDermott and not beane. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by cgang