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Beane's draft record - with several players emerging, has your opinion changed at all?


Alphadawg7

Beanes draft record  

235 members have voted

  1. 1. What was your opinion of his draft record PRIOR to start of 2023 season?

    • A grade - Very Good
    • B grade - Good
    • C grade - Average
    • D grade - Below average
    • F grade - Terrible
  2. 2. What is your current grade for him since seeing so many players emerge?

    • A grade - Very Good
    • B grade - Good
    • C grade - Average
    • D grade - Below average
    • F grade - Terrible
  3. 3. Is your grade now better, same, or worse than before these guys emerged this year?



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33 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

My vote was not for Beane exclusively. It was for the McDermott/Beane combo, with McDermott certainly having the greater say. 

 

I don't think any of us know what Beane would do without defense oriented McDermott dominating the conversation and trading up for defenders.

Sorry, McDermott DID trade down when he gave the Mahomes pick to KC, trading down 17 spots in the "process," and took a first round corner to play in a zone. 

 

Nope, can't pin that one on Beane.

The market has spoken Bill. DB’s, specifically corners, are the second highest paid defensive position, just behind pass rushers.

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56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't agree with the bolded. There is just too much randomness and luck. You can make bad decisions and get lucky. You can make all the right decisions and still come up short. The best team does not always win the Superbowl. And I can think of countless years where that is true. 

 

As for positional value at the draft I think you can take a pretty clear view on that. There is enough data over the years to support it.

The champion is the he best team.  

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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But my point remains Allen apart there is yet to be a "star" among them. And that is thing that stops me putting Beane in the top 5 General Manager type territory. I think back half of the top 10 feels about right. 

When are the people going to admit that Kincaid is a "star"? 

 

I know you're watching the games and have to seeing the silky smooth releases and hands made of stick'em.  Would setting the rookie record for TE receptions do it?  When he clearly becomes option number 2 on a high flying offense?

 

Beane moved up to get Kincaid and by all accounts sniped him from Dallas.  Bold move for a player of questionable positional value.

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6 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

When are the people going to admit that Kincaid is a "star"? 

 

I know you're watching the games and have to seeing the silky smooth releases and hands made of stick'em.  Would setting the rookie record for TE receptions do it?  When he clearly becomes option number 2 on a high flying offense?

 

Beane moved up to get Kincaid and by all accounts sniped him from Dallas.  Bold move for a player of questionable positional value.

Kindaid is a star 

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3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

Kaiir Elam was drafted into a weird situation.

 

The biggest reason Cornerback was a need in the 2022 draft was because of Tre White's injury and unknown timeline for a return, along with the idea that we could upgrade on Dane Jackson... who was a solid, but unspectacular player.  Even though it was probably our biggest need that year, CB never really was a huge hole.

 

The Bills traditionally prefer scheme-fits at Cornerback (Levi Wallace, Jackson), as opposed to project guys with elite physical traits.  Elam was always going to take a little more time than other 1st Round guys to get up to speed.  Especially getting drafted into a zone style system he wasn't used to playing.  And especially on a Super Bowl contender who didn't have the luxury of letting him learn through mistakes on the field.

 

Making things more complicated, Beane then hit on Christian Benford in the 6th Round.  Less of an overall athlete, but certainly a better scheme fit for the Bills defense and more ready to play.  He won the job Week 1 2022, and has really looked the part ever since.  Benford really is a good CB.  By the time Elam really started getting playing time his rookie season, White was back in the lineup and trying to regain his Pro Bowl form.

 

Bottom line, I don't think the Bills have the patience to let a CB learn on the job.  And that's what Elam really needs to grow.  Rather than risk allowing big plays, they would rather just go with the safe/solid guys they can trust like Jackson and Benford.  Now that Rasul Douglas is on the team, I really can't see him going anywhere on this roster.

 

The Bills don’t seem to have an issue with ‘learning on the job’ provided they’re capable of getting the job done. Ironically, the 2 you cited, Jackson and Benford, are perfect examples of prepared to play, getting to start, and learning on the job. 

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5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Kindaid is a star 

The people here should be the first to recognize it.  We've seen it, and now JBrady is unleashing him (which is somewhat unfair because I believe Dorsey's plan was to do the same).

 

The only question is will he get the stats/resume to support what we see.

 

Beane should get credit for this one.  His move up is looking good.  Seems like he just moved on from his last year when, IMO, the move up for Elam was a mistake (I just wanted him to stay put and take one of the WRs).

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41 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The people here should be the first to recognize it.  We've seen it, and now JBrady is unleashing him (which is somewhat unfair because I believe Dorsey's plan was to do the same).

 

The only question is will he get the stats/resume to support what we see.

 

Beane should get credit for this one.  His move up is looking good.  Seems like he just moved on from his last year when, IMO, the move up for Elam was a mistake (I just wanted him to stay put and take one of the WRs).

Apologies for being a broken record.  Credit to a GM should be solely based on wins and losses.  For example, the worst draft move in recent memory is niners trade up and selection of Trey Lance. But if the niners go on to win a Super Bowl, that pick matters not. 

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1 hour ago, Chaos said:

The champion is the he best team.  

 

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Apologies for being a broken record.  Credit to a GM should be solely based on wins and losses.  For example, the worst draft move in recent memory is niners trade up and selection of Trey Lance. But if the niners go on to win a Super Bowl, that pick matters not. 

While football is ultimately a results oriented business, the process of how to maximize your chances to achieve those results is much more interesting and detailed than “doesn’t matter, just win the Super Bowl.”

 

Trey Lance was a bad selection. If the Niners win, the fans won’t care. The owner won’t care. The football people will still care. They will want to know how they got it wrong, why they got it wrong and how they can do better next year.

 

If not winning the Super Bowl is a failure, 31 GM’s would be fired every year.

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Average, good, better for me.  He has missed a lot that I can not ignore, just speaking recently we can mention Elam, thats not good.  But Josh Allen alone will never put him in the below average category to me, and he has had some good picks, Kincaid, Oliver, Milano etc which at the end of the day puts me at good overall, not great.  If we were to clean house at the end of the season I guess I would prefer to keep Beane

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5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If not winning the Super Bowl is a failure, 31 GM’s would be fired every year.

this completely misses my point.  the runner up did better than 30 other teams.  The two teams that lost in the championship games did better than 26 other teams etc. etc.   Winning the offseason is of very little consequence, if it does not translate into winning games during the season. 

 

And also if you win the Super Bowl, you did the best overall job that year. Full stop.  
 

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2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

When are the people going to admit that Kincaid is a "star"? 

 

I know you're watching the games and have to seeing the silky smooth releases and hands made of stick'em.  Would setting the rookie record for TE receptions do it?  When he clearly becomes option number 2 on a high flying offense?

 

Beane moved up to get Kincaid and by all accounts sniped him from Dallas.  Bold move for a player of questionable positional value.

 

He has to put up star level production. He has been very good as a rookie. He is tracking towards the upper end of my projection for him in his first year. But to call him a star at this stage would be premature.

 

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Apologies for being a broken record.  Credit to a GM should be solely based on wins and losses.  

 

Disagree with that. W-L is a factor as are Pro Bowlers and especially All Pros selected.

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3 hours ago, Chaos said:

this completely misses my point.  the runner up did better than 30 other teams.  The two teams that lost in the championship games did better than 26 other teams etc. etc.   Winning the offseason is of very little consequence, if it does not translate into winning games during the season. 

 

And also if you win the Super Bowl, you did the best overall job that year. Full stop.  
 

Superbowls aren't built in a year.

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On 11/21/2023 at 10:07 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't about where mock drafters value a player. It is about the intrinsic value of certain poaitions in the modern NFL. And teams DO think about that. It is why the number of runnkng backs taken in round 1 has plummeted. In the 00s 32 round 1 running backs. In the 10s only 19. So far in the 20s (four drafts) only 5. The numbers are really clear teams overwhelmingly try and draft premium positions on day 1. That isn't coincidence. It is because those positions are the most expensive to pay. Whether in retaining your own or recruiting in FA.

 

Fair point on Gibbs that he appears to have broken out a bit more as the season has gone on and FWIW I didn't question LaPorta in round 2 (or Brian Branch in round 2 who was the steal of the whole second round IMO). I questioned the positional value of spending 2 top 20 picks on a running back and an off the ball linebacker. 

 

I also think the Lions played the 2021 and 2022 drafts perfectly to end up with a generational offensive tackle and an excellent young edge rusher (plus a starting 1T, arguably the best slot receiver in football, a starting linebacker and a starting safety). That is without getting anything at all from Jameson Williams who was definitely a shot worth taking. And I think it is THOSE pieces that largely are responsible for their record this season. You get Sewell and Hutchinson that should be transformational for a franchise. No surprise to me that it has been. 

 

Still - taking an off the ball linebacker and a running back in round 1 was bad positional value and to pay off they need those players to be perennial all pro types at their positions.


I get all that, but that also doesn’t make it wrong always to take a RB at 12 either.   That is my main point, they got killed over it just because they picked him at 12.  And honestly if there was a redraft today he would probably go before 12.  

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On 11/20/2023 at 6:38 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Bonus Points:  Devin and Moss showing they can be good RB's when featured on other teams too I think furthers Beane's draft track record too.  Daboll and Dorsey just failed to get them more involved here.  

Did they fail to get them involved or did they fail to value and/or identify quality offensive linemen?

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4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:


I get all that, but that also doesn’t make it wrong always to take a RB at 12 either.   That is my main point, they got killed over it just because they picked him at 12.  And honestly if there was a redraft today he would probably go before 12.  

As talented as he is, taking Gibbs at 12 was egregious, especially for team in such dire need at CB, and especially when the guy they traded away to make room for Gibbs has been just as productive this year as Gibbs. The Lions are already paying the price…they look like a team that’s headed for an early playoff exit, largely because their defense is mediocre.  No one has any idea where Gibbs would go in a “re-draft” (because of course there is no such thing), but I suppose it’s possible that some team would do something equally dumb in a (hypothetical) redraft.  The only worse pick last year was Atlanta taking Bijan Robinson at 8—a firing offense if I’ve ever seen one.  
 

The best way to measure the success of the Gibbs pick is whether Detroit picks up his fifth-year option, and we can already say that the odds on that are long.

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On 11/20/2023 at 6:47 PM, Chaos said:

Your question is about his draft record, not his ability to scout talent.  These are two very different skills.  Its actually a huge fail to draft players the coaches don't want or need or know how to use.  

I mean you can only do so much as the GM. If the coaches are stubborn, and don't want to or can't use the players, that's on them.

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On 11/20/2023 at 6:27 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I find most people's take on draft night are rooted in 2 silly things...the stupid over valuing of what "draft number" they were taken at and what limited amount of names they know vs the many ones they don't know.  

 

This past draft, I argued in a number of threads (I think I even started my own about it) that the Lions had maybe the best draft in the NFL when everyone was giving them the lowest grade...and why did they get a low grade, because they took a "RB" at 12 in Gibbs.  So stupid...they landed the 2nd best RB prospect, the best LB prospect, the best S prospect, and the 2nd best TE prospect all in the first 2 rounds.  I told everyone it does not matter where a player is drafted once the pads go on, it matters what that players brings to their team.  And so far, the Lions draft class is paying off huge for them and a massive reason they are 8-2 including that RB pick everyone hated the draft slot of.  

 

While draft convo is always fun, really grading anyones draft before players have played a single down is pretty pointless and useless.  That is why it usually takes 3 seasons to really know how a draft really graded out.  

 

 


Dawg,

 

As always nice post, but for me it’s difficult to evaluate the draft without looking at free agency and trades.  It’s turning out as of late Beane had a massive injection in talent in Joseph and Douglas, and if you want to go back awhile, Diggs.  You’re listed draft picks are definitely hits, but a few took awhile like AJE.

 

Thanks for the work you put in on this thread.  Enjoy your Black Friday.  I know I don’t want anything to do with shopping. 

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1 hour ago, mannc said:

As talented as he is, taking Gibbs at 12 was egregious, especially for team in such dire need at CB, and especially when the guy they traded away to make room for Gibbs has been just as productive this year as Gibbs. The Lions are already paying the price…they look like a team that’s headed for an early playoff exit, largely because their defense is mediocre.  No one has any idea where Gibbs would go in a “re-draft” (because of course there is no such thing), but I suppose it’s possible that some team would do something equally dumb in a (hypothetical) redraft.  The only worse pick last year was Atlanta taking Bijan Robinson at 8—a firing offense if I’ve ever seen one.  
 

The best way to measure the success of the Gibbs pick is whether Detroit picks up his fifth-year option, and we can already say that the odds on that are long.

 

Had the feeling of them loving Witherspoon so much that they had boxed themselves into "him or not a corner" but the reality is - and I said this pre-draft - there were three very good legit first round corner talents in the class and Gonzalez (pre-injury) and Joey Porter Jnr have proved me right so far. Any of those 3 would have been immediate upgrades at a premium position. Instead of a running back who is still being used primarily as their change of pace back. It isn't a knock on Gibbs. I think he can be a good player. But it is bad draft strategy. And then to compound that by spending a 2nd top 20 pick on an off the ball linebacker who isn't a coverage match up piece? Yea. Detroit had a bad day 1 even if they recovered a tad with a good day 2.

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On 11/20/2023 at 5:12 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Forget out team record this year (there are a lot of factors in that)...but one silver lining has been we have seen a lot of young players begin to emerge into good to even great players for us this year.  

 

So I am curious if the emergence of these young players, many of which were written off or not thought much of prior to the start of the season, has impacted people's view of his draft history.  Personally, I already thought Beane had done well in the draft...but he obviously still had his fair share of critics around here. 

 

Some of those players include:  AJE, Bernard, Benford, Shakir, Cook, Kincaid, O'Cyrus, Dorian, and even Oliver to an extent.  

  • AJE - (2nd round)A long time whipping boy around here despite having a mini breakout last year with 6.5 sacks in a rotational role.  He has become a very good player for us this season already matching his sack total last year and on pace for 10 sacks, plus he has an INT and defensive TD.  
  • Bernard - (3rd round)Labeled a bust by many the moment he was drafted and considered a major liability by most heading into this season.  But he has been one of the defenses best players for this team on the season.
  • Benford - (6th round) Seen as a guy only playing because Elam wasn't ready to winning the 3 way battle and playing like a starting corner.
  • Shakir - (5th round) Disregarded by many just because he fell to the 5th round, falsely labeled by many of not having good hands mostly because of one tough catch in the playoff last year.  Now he is becoming a staple in the offense with his snap count rising from 10% week 1 to now 80% nearly this week.  Has the best catch rate on the team.  
  • Cook - (2nd round) Considered a change of pace 3rd down back with little value as a featured runner.  Currently 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards despite Dorsey's struggle with consistently involving him and looking like a long term important player for this offense right now.
  • Kincaid - (1st round) He did have a lot of hype, but was too early to know, but he is proving that hype is legit and now the 2nd best receiving weapon on the team.  
  • O'Cyrus - (2nd round) Instant starter and while he has had some rookie struggles, he has really made an impact on the OL for the most part. 
  • Oliver - (1st round) Most were against his extension, now he not only is proving he was worth it, he has become one of the elite DT's in the NFL this year under McD's defense.  

 

So has this impacted your view of his draft history seeing these guys really start to emerge and breakout this year?  

 

NOTE:  I think AJE, Cook, and O'Cyrus play is getting to the point that the old "Beane can't draft in the 2nd round" criticism is headed for retirement.  

 

For the record, my vote was:

B Grade

A Grade

Better


Fire Beane

51% of people on here thought he did a good job drafting prior to this season. LOL! Thats BS.
 

A lot of you lie as much as you complain apparently. 

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On 11/22/2023 at 12:08 PM, FireChans said:

The market has spoken Bill. DB’s, specifically corners, are the second highest paid defensive position, just behind pass rushers.

You are 100% correct. That said, as I recall the salary range for corners isn't necessarily increasing like other positions as of late. Perhaps I'm wrong.

 

The thing is, if the  secondary is your main focus in the draft, your team will not be a winner. Levy proved this for a long time. McDermott proved this in his first year hear. I mean, which players are playing the best at corner for the Bills? Is it the guy who we gave away the Mahomes pick for? Is it the guy we traded up for?  McDermott's fingerprints are all over these stupid deals. Teams don't need Mel Blount and Deon Sanders type superstars to play in a zone. If you have them, GREAT, but should they be a team's main focus? I think not.

 

On a side note, I noticed that the refs are finally starting to call penalties on the "great" Sauce Gardner. I don't yet know what conclusion to draw from this but I do find it interesting.

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4 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

You are 100% correct. That said, as I recall the salary range for corners isn't necessarily increasing like other positions as of late. Perhaps I'm wrong.

 

The thing is, if the  secondary is your main focus in the draft, your team will not be a winner. Levy proved this for a long time. McDermott proved this in his first year hear. I mean, which players are playing the best at corner for the Bills? Is it the guy who we gave away the Mahomes pick for? Is it the guy we traded up for?  McDermott's fingerprints are all over these stupid deals. Teams don't need Mel Blount and Deon Sanders type superstars to play in a zone. If you have them, GREAT, but should they be a team's main focus? I think not.

 

On a side note, I noticed that the refs are finally starting to call penalties on the "great" Sauce Gardner. I don't yet know what conclusion to draw from this but I do find it interesting.

The Chiefs traded up for a CB in the first as well, and he has been a large part of the reason they were successful last year and this year. 

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On 11/20/2023 at 3:17 PM, BBFL said:

Nice post. There’s a healthy blend of talent throughout this team via draft and free agency. I get the McD criticism but Beane has done a decent job through the draft. At least 2 to 3 essential contributors each year. Not bad. Guy gets way too much flak for his draft history IMHO, can’t hit on every player as nice as it may be. 
 

One pick and one pick only have I disliked; the Boogie Basham double dip DE in the draft. 


Simply because Groot was taken shortly before him. Weird selection. 

I agree. Albeit not perfect,  Brandon has done a very good job. I'm much more receptive to keeping him than McD.

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53 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The Chiefs traded up for a CB in the first as well, and he has been a large part of the reason they were successful last year and this year. 

 

The very CB we were trying to draft, and the one we should have gotten before the panic pick. Even with Beane's good grades now, they would have been even better had he just been able to pull off McDuffie instead of Elam.

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On 11/21/2023 at 10:43 AM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I believe that was the previous draft strategy when the roster was already PACKED with veterans and most draft picks werent going to be counted on to start. They could pick guys with higher ceilings but needing development work.

 

That has changed, and will definitely change going into next season. And we saw Beane shift to picking players that could play immediately in Kincaid and Torrence.

 

At least I'm hoping that was all on purpose. :thumbsup:

The Williams pick didn't make sense to me.  Maybe he will be an above average NFL player one day, but the pick - given the needs at S and WR at the time, and having Milano at LB - was odd, IMO

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12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He was right when the Bills were drafting DB’s instead of QB’s to be fair 

 

Yes exactly, he was. But it has poisoned his long term thinking on the position. And it is a position that DOES matter in the modern game. If you don't have 1 very good reliable corner you are the Lions. A good team that can lose to literally anybody at any moment. 

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41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes exactly, he was. But it has poisoned his long term thinking on the position. And it is a position that DOES matter in the modern game. If you don't have 1 very good reliable corner you are the Lions. A good team that can lose to literally anybody at any moment. 

Man if only that kid they took third didn’t bust. What a shame.

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15 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:


Dawg,

 

As always nice post, but for me it’s difficult to evaluate the draft without looking at free agency and trades.  It’s turning out as of late Beane had a massive injection in talent in Joseph and Douglas, and if you want to go back awhile, Diggs.  You’re listed draft picks are definitely hits, but a few took awhile like AJE.

 

Thanks for the work you put in on this thread.  Enjoy your Black Friday.  I know I don’t want anything to do with shopping. 


Agree and thanks, hope you had a great day and holiday 

17 hours ago, mannc said:

As talented as he is, taking Gibbs at 12 was egregious, especially for team in such dire need at CB, and especially when the guy they traded away to make room for Gibbs has been just as productive this year as Gibbs. The Lions are already paying the price…they look like a team that’s headed for an early playoff exit, largely because their defense is mediocre.  No one has any idea where Gibbs would go in a “re-draft” (because of course there is no such thing), but I suppose it’s possible that some team would do something equally dumb in a (hypothetical) redraft.  The only worse pick last year was Atlanta taking Bijan Robinson at 8—a firing offense if I’ve ever seen one.  
 

The best way to measure the success of the Gibbs pick is whether Detroit picks up his fifth-year option, and we can already say that the odds on that are long.


I disagree with some of this and agree with some of it.  But overall a fair reply 

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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I love Bill but he is just wrong on corner.

I don’t think anybody can convince me that Elam was a scramble pick and they wanted that other corner

 

Having said that

 

Bloom did get a Benford who is panning out in his hits far outweigh is Misses

 

Also

 

Drafting is just one part of the general managers job. He has done very well with free agent acquisitions, finding guys on minimum and late in the process like Leonard Floyd treating for  Douglas.

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On 11/20/2023 at 6:48 PM, SoCal Deek said:

Not trying to be that guy, but the Elam pick still baffles me. Hard to believe he can’t even get on the field. Theres gotta be something more to the story. 

He is not a scheme fit for the Bills. In college, he excelled at man-to-man heavy press corner and he is still learning McD's defensive zone scheme.  The only real way to learn in the NFL is to play and he has been underrepped. 

 

Against Maimi, he played well, and in other games not so well. Obviously, this coaching staff must feel he needs more time in this scheme as the physical talent is there. He is after all the fastest DB on the roster.

 

Sometimes good players don't emerge in the NFL right away. Take a long hard look at the new Buffalo Bill's #1 CB in Rasul Douglas. Eagles, Panthers, Raiders*, Cards*, Packers*, and now Buffalo. Bills fans complained about giving up a third for him at first. He had 3 turnovers against the Jets, 2 INTs, and a fumble recovery.

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6 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

He is not a scheme fit for the Bills. In college, he excelled at man-to-man heavy press corner and he is still learning McD's defensive zone scheme.  The only real way to learn in the NFL is to play and he has been underrepped. 

 

Against Maimi, he played well, and in other games not so well. Obviously, this coaching staff must feel he needs more time in this scheme as the physical talent is there. He is after all the fastest DB on the roster.

 

Sometimes good players don't emerge in the NFL right away. Take a long hard look at the new Buffalo Bill's #1 CB in Rasul Douglas. Eagles, Panthers, Raiders*, Cards*, Packers*, and now Buffalo. Bills fans complained about giving up a third for him at first. He had 3 turnovers against the Jets, 2 INTs, and a fumble recovery.

In a phrase….lets hope so! I admire your optimism. It’s just odd that this is the same staff that ‘recruited’ him and the same defensive scheme they had when they did so. I personally find it hard to believe they drafted a guy in the First Round that they considered to be a ‘project’. 

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To the OP, I grade the same way as you.  This last draft has upgraded my view on Beane drafting.

 

I was disappointed with the 2022 draft, mainly because I was hoping they would take a WR over the CB in round 1 (c Watkins/G Pickens).  After the draft I felt they went too needs oriented and that Beane was being a little too conservative.

 

The 2023 draft shocked me in a very pleasant way.  Beane put to rest the defense domination criticism.  He took a risk to move up for a player in questionable positional value (TE), where we already had a player (Knox).  The move up was quickly justified to me when I saw the video of the Dallas draft room.  And personally I've seen enough of Kincaid to call him a star, I'm excited about at least another 4 1/2 years of him.

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23 hours ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

The Williams pick didn't make sense to me.  Maybe he will be an above average NFL player one day, but the pick - given the needs at S and WR at the time, and having Milano at LB - was odd, IMO

 

Kinda, yes. But at the same time, Edmunds just left in FA. We were going into camp with only Milano, and then a bunch of question marks. Across our entire LB unit.

 

We were and are far better off at Safety and WR than LB from just a numbers game.

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