Beane's draft record - with several players emerging, has your opinion changed at all?

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

My vote was not for Beane exclusively. It was for the McDermott/Beane combo, with McDermott certainly having the greater say. 

 

I don't think any of us know what Beane would do without defense oriented McDermott dominating the conversation and trading up for defenders.

Sorry, McDermott DID trade down when he gave the Mahomes pick to KC, trading down 17 spots in the "process," and took a first round corner to play in a zone. 

 

Nope, can't pin that one on Beane.

The market has spoken Bill. DB’s, specifically corners, are the second highest paid defensive position, just behind pass rushers.

[Chaos]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't agree with the bolded. There is just too much randomness and luck. You can make bad decisions and get lucky. You can make all the right decisions and still come up short. The best team does not always win the Superbowl. And I can think of countless years where that is true. 

 

As for positional value at the draft I think you can take a pretty clear view on that. There is enough data over the years to support it.

The champion is the he best team.  

[Einstein's Dog]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But my point remains Allen apart there is yet to be a "star" among them. And that is thing that stops me putting Beane in the top 5 General Manager type territory. I think back half of the top 10 feels about right. 

When are the people going to admit that Kincaid is a "star"? 

 

I know you're watching the games and have to seeing the silky smooth releases and hands made of stick'em.  Would setting the rookie record for TE receptions do it?  When he clearly becomes option number 2 on a high flying offense?

 

Beane moved up to get Kincaid and by all accounts sniped him from Dallas.  Bold move for a player of questionable positional value.

[Chaos]

6 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

When are the people going to admit that Kincaid is a "star"? 

 

I know you're watching the games and have to seeing the silky smooth releases and hands made of stick'em.  Would setting the rookie record for TE receptions do it?  When he clearly becomes option number 2 on a high flying offense?

 

Beane moved up to get Kincaid and by all accounts sniped him from Dallas.  Bold move for a player of questionable positional value.

Kindaid is a star 

[SoMAn]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

Kaiir Elam was drafted into a weird situation.

 

The biggest reason Cornerback was a need in the 2022 draft was because of Tre White's injury and unknown timeline for a return, along with the idea that we could upgrade on Dane Jackson... who was a solid, but unspectacular player.  Even though it was probably our biggest need that year, CB never really was a huge hole.

 

The Bills traditionally prefer scheme-fits at Cornerback (Levi Wallace, Jackson), as opposed to project guys with elite physical traits.  Elam was always going to take a little more time than other 1st Round guys to get up to speed.  Especially getting drafted into a zone style system he wasn't used to playing.  And especially on a Super Bowl contender who didn't have the luxury of letting him learn through mistakes on the field.

 

Making things more complicated, Beane then hit on Christian Benford in the 6th Round.  Less of an overall athlete, but certainly a better scheme fit for the Bills defense and more ready to play.  He won the job Week 1 2022, and has really looked the part ever since.  Benford really is a good CB.  By the time Elam really started getting playing time his rookie season, White was back in the lineup and trying to regain his Pro Bowl form.

 

Bottom line, I don't think the Bills have the patience to let a CB learn on the job.  And that's what Elam really needs to grow.  Rather than risk allowing big plays, they would rather just go with the safe/solid guys they can trust like Jackson and Benford.  Now that Rasul Douglas is on the team, I really can't see him going anywhere on this roster.

 

The Bills don’t seem to have an issue with ‘learning on the job’ provided they’re capable of getting the job done. Ironically, the 2 you cited, Jackson and Benford, are perfect examples of prepared to play, getting to start, and learning on the job. 

[Einstein's Dog]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Kindaid is a star 

The people here should be the first to recognize it.  We've seen it, and now JBrady is unleashing him (which is somewhat unfair because I believe Dorsey's plan was to do the same).

 

The only question is will he get the stats/resume to support what we see.

 

Beane should get credit for this one.  His move up is looking good.  Seems like he just moved on from his last year when, IMO, the move up for Elam was a mistake (I just wanted him to stay put and take one of the WRs).

[Chaos]

41 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The people here should be the first to recognize it.  We've seen it, and now JBrady is unleashing him (which is somewhat unfair because I believe Dorsey's plan was to do the same).

 

The only question is will he get the stats/resume to support what we see.

 

Beane should get credit for this one.  His move up is looking good.  Seems like he just moved on from his last year when, IMO, the move up for Elam was a mistake (I just wanted him to stay put and take one of the WRs).

Apologies for being a broken record.  Credit to a GM should be solely based on wins and losses.  For example, the worst draft move in recent memory is niners trade up and selection of Trey Lance. But if the niners go on to win a Super Bowl, that pick matters not. 

[Thurman#1]

On 11/21/2023 at 8:12 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

Beane's draft record - with several players emerging, has your opinion changed at all?

 

 

 

Not significantly. He's always been quite good.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

The champion is the he best team.  

 

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Apologies for being a broken record.  Credit to a GM should be solely based on wins and losses.  For example, the worst draft move in recent memory is niners trade up and selection of Trey Lance. But if the niners go on to win a Super Bowl, that pick matters not. 

While football is ultimately a results oriented business, the process of how to maximize your chances to achieve those results is much more interesting and detailed than “doesn’t matter, just win the Super Bowl.”

 

Trey Lance was a bad selection. If the Niners win, the fans won’t care. The owner won’t care. The football people will still care. They will want to know how they got it wrong, why they got it wrong and how they can do better next year.

 

If not winning the Super Bowl is a failure, 31 GM’s would be fired every year.

[Gunsgoodtime]

Average, good, better for me.  He has missed a lot that I can not ignore, just speaking recently we can mention Elam, thats not good.  But Josh Allen alone will never put him in the below average category to me, and he has had some good picks, Kincaid, Oliver, Milano etc which at the end of the day puts me at good overall, not great.  If we were to clean house at the end of the season I guess I would prefer to keep Beane

[Chaos]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If not winning the Super Bowl is a failure, 31 GM’s would be fired every year.

this completely misses my point.  the runner up did better than 30 other teams.  The two teams that lost in the championship games did better than 26 other teams etc. etc.   Winning the offseason is of very little consequence, if it does not translate into winning games during the season. 

 

And also if you win the Super Bowl, you did the best overall job that year. Full stop.  
 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

When are the people going to admit that Kincaid is a "star"? 

 

I know you're watching the games and have to seeing the silky smooth releases and hands made of stick'em.  Would setting the rookie record for TE receptions do it?  When he clearly becomes option number 2 on a high flying offense?

 

Beane moved up to get Kincaid and by all accounts sniped him from Dallas.  Bold move for a player of questionable positional value.

 

He has to put up star level production. He has been very good as a rookie. He is tracking towards the upper end of my projection for him in his first year. But to call him a star at this stage would be premature.

 

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Apologies for being a broken record.  Credit to a GM should be solely based on wins and losses.  

 

Disagree with that. W-L is a factor as are Pro Bowlers and especially All Pros selected.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

this completely misses my point.  the runner up did better than 30 other teams.  The two teams that lost in the championship games did better than 26 other teams etc. etc.   Winning the offseason is of very little consequence, if it does not translate into winning games during the season. 

 

And also if you win the Super Bowl, you did the best overall job that year. Full stop.  
 

Superbowls aren't built in a year.

[Alphadawg7]

On 11/21/2023 at 10:07 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't about where mock drafters value a player. It is about the intrinsic value of certain poaitions in the modern NFL. And teams DO think about that. It is why the number of runnkng backs taken in round 1 has plummeted. In the 00s 32 round 1 running backs. In the 10s only 19. So far in the 20s (four drafts) only 5. The numbers are really clear teams overwhelmingly try and draft premium positions on day 1. That isn't coincidence. It is because those positions are the most expensive to pay. Whether in retaining your own or recruiting in FA.

 

Fair point on Gibbs that he appears to have broken out a bit more as the season has gone on and FWIW I didn't question LaPorta in round 2 (or Brian Branch in round 2 who was the steal of the whole second round IMO). I questioned the positional value of spending 2 top 20 picks on a running back and an off the ball linebacker. 

 

I also think the Lions played the 2021 and 2022 drafts perfectly to end up with a generational offensive tackle and an excellent young edge rusher (plus a starting 1T, arguably the best slot receiver in football, a starting linebacker and a starting safety). That is without getting anything at all from Jameson Williams who was definitely a shot worth taking. And I think it is THOSE pieces that largely are responsible for their record this season. You get Sewell and Hutchinson that should be transformational for a franchise. No surprise to me that it has been. 

 

Still - taking an off the ball linebacker and a running back in round 1 was bad positional value and to pay off they need those players to be perennial all pro types at their positions.

I get all that, but that also doesn’t make it wrong always to take a RB at 12 either.   That is my main point, they got killed over it just because they picked him at 12.  And honestly if there was a redraft today he would probably go before 12.  

[That's No Moon]

On 11/20/2023 at 6:38 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Bonus Points:  Devin and Moss showing they can be good RB's when featured on other teams too I think furthers Beane's draft track record too.  Daboll and Dorsey just failed to get them more involved here.  

Did they fail to get them involved or did they fail to value and/or identify quality offensive linemen?

[BuffBillsForLife]

I dislike Beane more for the bad contracts he gives out murdering our cap more than his drafting, which is looking up lately.  Elam is a megabust and Groot is invisible lately but a lot of them have improved this year.

 

Next year is cap armageddon.

[mannc]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I get all that, but that also doesn’t make it wrong always to take a RB at 12 either.   That is my main point, they got killed over it just because they picked him at 12.  And honestly if there was a redraft today he would probably go before 12.  

As talented as he is, taking Gibbs at 12 was egregious, especially for team in such dire need at CB, and especially when the guy they traded away to make room for Gibbs has been just as productive this year as Gibbs. The Lions are already paying the price…they look like a team that’s headed for an early playoff exit, largely because their defense is mediocre.  No one has any idea where Gibbs would go in a “re-draft” (because of course there is no such thing), but I suppose it’s possible that some team would do something equally dumb in a (hypothetical) redraft.  The only worse pick last year was Atlanta taking Bijan Robinson at 8—a firing offense if I’ve ever seen one.  
 

The best way to measure the success of the Gibbs pick is whether Detroit picks up his fifth-year option, and we can already say that the odds on that are long.

Edited November 24, 2023 by mannc

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

On 11/20/2023 at 6:47 PM, Chaos said:

Your question is about his draft record, not his ability to scout talent.  These are two very different skills.  Its actually a huge fail to draft players the coaches don't want or need or know how to use.  

I mean you can only do so much as the GM. If the coaches are stubborn, and don't want to or can't use the players, that's on them.

[machine gun kelly]

On 11/20/2023 at 6:27 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I find most people's take on draft night are rooted in 2 silly things...the stupid over valuing of what "draft number" they were taken at and what limited amount of names they know vs the many ones they don't know.  

 

This past draft, I argued in a number of threads (I think I even started my own about it) that the Lions had maybe the best draft in the NFL when everyone was giving them the lowest grade...and why did they get a low grade, because they took a "RB" at 12 in Gibbs.  So stupid...they landed the 2nd best RB prospect, the best LB prospect, the best S prospect, and the 2nd best TE prospect all in the first 2 rounds.  I told everyone it does not matter where a player is drafted once the pads go on, it matters what that players brings to their team.  And so far, the Lions draft class is paying off huge for them and a massive reason they are 8-2 including that RB pick everyone hated the draft slot of.  

 

While draft convo is always fun, really grading anyones draft before players have played a single down is pretty pointless and useless.  That is why it usually takes 3 seasons to really know how a draft really graded out.  

 

 

Dawg,

 

As always nice post, but for me it’s difficult to evaluate the draft without looking at free agency and trades.  It’s turning out as of late Beane had a massive injection in talent in Joseph and Douglas, and if you want to go back awhile, Diggs.  You’re listed draft picks are definitely hits, but a few took awhile like AJE.

 

Thanks for the work you put in on this thread.  Enjoy your Black Friday.  I know I don’t want anything to do with shopping. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

As talented as he is, taking Gibbs at 12 was egregious, especially for team in such dire need at CB, and especially when the guy they traded away to make room for Gibbs has been just as productive this year as Gibbs. The Lions are already paying the price…they look like a team that’s headed for an early playoff exit, largely because their defense is mediocre.  No one has any idea where Gibbs would go in a “re-draft” (because of course there is no such thing), but I suppose it’s possible that some team would do something equally dumb in a (hypothetical) redraft.  The only worse pick last year was Atlanta taking Bijan Robinson at 8—a firing offense if I’ve ever seen one.  
 

The best way to measure the success of the Gibbs pick is whether Detroit picks up his fifth-year option, and we can already say that the odds on that are long.

 

Had the feeling of them loving Witherspoon so much that they had boxed themselves into "him or not a corner" but the reality is - and I said this pre-draft - there were three very good legit first round corner talents in the class and Gonzalez (pre-injury) and Joey Porter Jnr have proved me right so far. Any of those 3 would have been immediate upgrades at a premium position. Instead of a running back who is still being used primarily as their change of pace back. It isn't a knock on Gibbs. I think he can be a good player. But it is bad draft strategy. And then to compound that by spending a 2nd top 20 pick on an off the ball linebacker who isn't a coverage match up piece? Yea. Detroit had a bad day 1 even if they recovered a tad with a good day 2.