Is Josh turning into a one read guy??

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Bubba Gump said:

This video right here shows me that Josh is sticking with one play and going with it. Davis was wide open for a huge gain. Maybe JA has lost all faith in Gabe and doesn't even look his way anymore. Idk 🤷‍♂️ 

 

And why is Deonte Harty even on this team?? Him and Sherfield. Nice moves Beane.

 

 

 

Josh misses some stuff but overall it's because of Dorsey's concepts.

 

Here is a good breakdown instead of a twitter vid

 

 

[Goin Breakdown]

I honestly think many of the issue are Josh. Love the guy. Never want him to retire or leave, but he is what we all make fun of Tua for "one read Qb" a lot of times. He also holds o to the ball too long. That could be because our WRs don't separate, but also That TD to Kincaid last week was thrown late and I'm going to guess because Josh was looking elsewhere. So he does go to other guys but I think his mind is made up before the snap and that's why it takes so dang long sometimes to get the ball out. 

[Bubba Gump]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Finally seeing the all22 of this play. Josh just has to put that ball out in front of Harty and it’s a huge play.

 

I think he is hiding that shoulder injury just a bit. He can make certain throws like always, but some he just can't right now. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This is one thing I hate about the "Twitter OCs" that do game review. If the play doesn't work he's criticized either way.

 

So, he should have bypassed single coverage deep in this situation to hit the small ball play. If he tosses it to Gabe here the review would like have been "yeah he picked up 7, but he had Harty single coverage deep and if he hits it, that's 6. Gotta take a chance when it's there. Bad Josh."

 

Good read. Bad pass.

 

 

I get your point, but if he hits Gabe in stride, that's a lot more than 7 yards. A lot more. 

[sven233]

I actually think part of the problem is the opposite.  There are several times I've noticed that he gets off the first read almost too fast.  Sometimes, he doesn't let things play out long enough before moving on.

 

You have to remember that this happens to every QB in the league.  Every QB in every game misses reads, event the easiest ones.  It happens.  Playing QB is hard, man.  It's the most difficult position in sports.  You are expected to know and see everything happening on the field at all times and make split second decisions on every snap with very large and fast human beings trying to take your head off.  Sometimes you're going to be wrong.  And no matter whether you're one of the best like Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Rodgers, Manning, etc., you are going to miss reads and you are going to miss open guys.  It will happen regularly in every game.

 

What separates the great ones from the others is the ability to miss less reads than others and the ability, if you do miss a read, to make something else happen on the play to make it a positive instead of a negative.  Do I wish Allen would make better reads sometimes?  Of course.  There are times I watch the All-22 and I wonder why his eyes going to a spot when he should be looking somewhere else completely based on how the defense lined up.  But he makes better decisions more often than not and improvises better than just about anyone else in the league when he does miss a read.  That's why, while not perfect, he's one of the best in the world right now.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Read was ok.  Situational play call was terrible.

 

10 weeks in and the coaching staff still hasn't figured out that Harty is not the player they thought they signed. What is Dorsey thinking sending him on a shot play when he has done nothing to inspire confidence that he will get open? Did Dorsey not realize the type of game we were in? Every down mattered.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Allen reads Gabe (high/low read) first on this play. He has coverage both in front of him and behind him.

 

Image below:



Allen wisely moves off of Davis, and onto the 1 on 1 Hardy has, with no safety help .This is 

This is the correct read.

When Allen makes his decision to throw to Hardy, Gabe Davis still has a shallow defender just waiting to intercept.



Allen made the right read. 

.

 

16 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said:

 

I think he is hiding that shoulder injury just a bit. He can make certain throws like always, but some he just can't right now. 

 

I get your point, but if he hits Gabe in stride, that's a lot more than 7 yards. A lot more. 

You kind of prove my point here, Bubba. Every play is second guessed from the Podcast OCs. It's always "If". Look at the other post I quoted here as well. He reads the play to Davis. He's not open when he's looking so he progresses his reads. If he stays locked onto Davis now the narrative is "Allen is staring down his receivers". 

 

Literally the only thing Allen did wrong here was not complete the pass. 

 

All22 is a fun watch but seeing plays broken down at slower speed and not from the QBs POV is often times (not always) ridiculous.

[Trogdor]

2 hours ago, Returntoglory said:

And once again,  Davis makes no attempt to Breakup or fight for the ball. 

That throw was yards behind him and directly to the defender. It looked like he forgot which team he was throwing to, I'm not sure what you want him to do there. There is a theme on this board to come up with excuses for Allen's turnovers that has existed since day 1. He is stupid with the ball in both carrying and throwing it, that's just something they are going to have to scheme around.  

[TheBrownBear]

I don't have a problem with a deep shot there to your "speedster" when he clearly has single coverage.  Not a great route by Harty, but if Josh throws that ball more towards the middle of the field, then Harty can make a play on it.  I think Josh is afraid to throw that bomb inside, because of how often he's been fooled and picked off by safety help.

[peterpan]

Josh does lock onto guys, he then likes to bail and scramble and usually finds a guy that way.  That’s always been his MO.

 

that play in the tweet tho - is a bad example.  Harty is open there, he has a step on his man around the thirty yard line and inside leverage with no safety. Bengals #33 stays flat footed and doesn’t drop, Bengals #23 bites down on the crossing route - boom throw it deep.   It was a bad pass but the read was fine.  
 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Bubba Gump said:

This video right here shows me that Josh is sticking with one play and going with it. Davis was wide open for a huge gain. Maybe JA has lost all faith in Gabe and doesn't even look his way anymore. Idk 🤷‍♂️ 

 

And why is Deonte Harty even on this team?? Him and Sherfield. Nice moves Beane.

 

 

 

No disrespect, but I hate these post one play videos people post on twitter who have no idea with the read progression or play call was.  Harty had 1 on 1...if Josh thinks there is a play there he is not going to go past that read, he is taking that shot. 

 

I think people have a misunderstanding of how a QB reads the field...there seems to be this assumption that he scans all receivers then makes a decisions on who is best.  They throw the moment they see a target where they think they have a play, meaning they will not see every WR on the field before throwing.

[Mango]

3 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

That’s been a knock on Josh since coming out of college.  He’s definitely been more effective in his career when he doesn’t do this, but it’s a tendency of his that hurts the offense’s effectiveness.

 

It is part of the reason for the bootlegs. Yes it got Josh moving, and left his legs as an option. But it also ensured that the play was only a half field read. 

 

Teams post games have fairly regularly been similar to Lamar's. "Keep the play in front of us". "Make them drive the field". "Keep him in the pocket and beat us with his arm". 

 

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Allen is capable of going through his reads.

 

I think how he plays at times, where he looks and his choices, are a mystery to everyone outside the Bills who are covering football because it's NOT that he hasn't shown himself capable of progressing through his reads and hitting the open guy at times.

 

Others have pointed out that Allen threw the pick to Gabe on the next play, so it's not like he "lost all faith in Gabe and doesn't look his way anymore".

 

 

If you're correct that Josh thought the "game was almost over" down 14-7 in the 2nd Q, then he has the mental toughness of a loofah and should retire to play golf.  I'm not saying that's what Josh was actually thinking, but I'm not kidding.  Championship-winning QB don't think like that.

 

Look, successful offensive coordinators stretch the field horizontally and vertically.  You can't blame it on Dorsey for "giving him those plays" that do what an OC is supposed to do.  Were there open players and plays to be had?  There were.  Then it's on Josh for not taking advantage of them.

 

Air Raid is damned straight that Josh has warts right now, and somebody better get the liquid nitrogen and burn a few of them off.

I think this is a lot of explanation to try and put everything into a neat bucket. 

 

Allen Sometimes...
doesn't even look at open receivers.

sees open guys and makes really bad decisions anyways

completes throws he shouldn't and you wouldn't think are possible

plays lights out. 

The constant thread in all of that is that Allen is erratic with his decision making.  He always has been. His physiology bails him out of somethings that would sink lesser players. I have been pretty consistent that I think he is at times slow to diagnose, and his arm strength/legs give him the leeway to do so.

 

I do think that part of it is that he has this false positive feedback loop. Missed seeing the coverage or opted for the bigger play -> bailed out of the pocket or threw a laser -> completed wow throw or scramble-> receives praise -> repeat.->

 

If he could figure that part of his game out he would likely go down as an all time great. Which is why I likely get so frustrated about it in season. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Mango

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

It is part of the reason for the bootlegs. Yes it got Josh moving, and left his legs as an option. But it also ensured that the play was only a half field read. 

 

Teams post games have fairly regularly been similar to Lamar's. "Keep the play in front of us". "Make them drive the field". "Keep him in the pocket and beat us with his arm". 

 

I think this is a lot of explanation to try and put everything into a neat bucket. 

 

Allen Sometimes...
doesn't even look at open receivers.

sees open guys and makes really bad decisions anyways

completes throws he shouldn't and you wouldn't think are possible

plays lights out. 

The constant thread in all of that is that Allen is erratic with his decision making.  He always has been. His physiology bails him out of somethings that would sink lesser players. I have been pretty consistent that I think he is at times slow to diagnose, and his arm strength/legs give him the leeway to do so.

 

I do think that part of it is that he has this false positive feedback loop. Missed seeing the coverage or opted for the bigger play -> bailed out of the pocket or threw a laser -> completed wow throw or scramble-> receives praise -> repeat.->

 

If he could figure that part of his game out he would likely go down as an all time great. Which is why I likely get so frustrated about it in season. 

there is absolutely nothing to be frustrated about except your own preconceived notions re: Allen

 

[Mango]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

there is absolutely nothing to be frustrated about except your own preconceived notions re: Allen

 

Allen isn't inconsistent and I can't be frustrated by it because it doesn't exist.

Got it!

[Matt_In_NH]

One play and you can make a blanket generalization?   You can’t watch the all 22 and find the open guy and assume the qb is dumb or can’t read a defense or does not want to throw to a guy.  His eyes have to get to the open guy in the window he would be open.  There are no qbs ever who always see the open receiver.  This play seemed like a predetermined shot play.  

[GoBills808]

Just now, Mango said:

Allen isn't inconsistent and I can't be frustrated by it because it doesn't exist.

Got it!

you clearly do not get it

 

all QBs are inconsistent

[Mango]

 

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

there is absolutely nothing to be frustrated about except your own preconceived notions re: Allen

 

 

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

you clearly do not get it

 

all QBs are inconsistent

 

Did you try reaching out to Tom Brady? Unsure he saw your graph. Can't believe that bum doesn't "get it" either.  

 

https://x.com/Rico_BF_/status/1720181065992536507?s=20

Edited November 7, 2023 by Mango
I don't know why this isn't embedding

[Billy Claude]

Wasn't there a thread three or four weeks back where @Einstein posted that Allen was less likely to go with the first read than almost any other QB in the league?

Edited November 7, 2023 by Billy Claude

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

 

Did you try reaching out to Tom Brady? Unsure he saw your graph. Can't believe that bum doesn't "get it" either.  

 

https://twitter.com/Rico_BF_/status/1720181065992536507?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1720181065992536507|twgr^2028a248b34dad06e33b77fd9f59284712e16a70|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twobillsdrive.com%2Fcommunity%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Frico_bf_%2Fstatus%2F1720181065992536507%3Fs%3D4626t%3DJ0XOPZhJs-VeOGHyWCIgFg

has nothing to do w anything

 

continue flailing

[Brand J]

5 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

Wasn't there a thread three or four weeks back where @Einstein posted that Allen was less likely to go with the first read than almost any other QB in the league?

I remember that. One could argue it’s likely because the first read is based on pre snap alignment and expectations, where the QB thinks he’s going to go with the ball (usually as a result of film study). I’d be curious how many other top QBs rank at the bottom in terms of throwing to their first read. 

[stlbills13]

Dorsey is not putting Josh in a position to succeed.

 

McDermott is not holding anyone accountable for the continued broken offense. 

 

Beane has ignored the WR2 position for years.

 

The running backs have not performed at a high level especially in the last month.

 

Josh has not played well. 

 

I think all of the above is true.