Simms: Gabe Davis is a good player, but he's not a number two

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

Gabe Davis' success isn't solely, but in my opinion is primarily, based on two things:  teams forgetting about him on a play, and/or teams not really concerned about him on a play.

 

In his career he has made a couple of ridiculous...and I mean RIDICULOUS toe-drag-swag receptions, but it is not the norm.  The same goes for his success or lack there of on contested passes or getting open.

 

What do I want or what am I looking for even just in a #2 receiver?  Two things:  Does the # 2 concern the Defense enough that they have to specifically plan for him, potentially causing decision issues on D between the 1 and the 2, and secondly if the #1 (heaven forbid) goes down for a period of time can you count on the #2 to be the Man?

 

So, respectfully, if you are sitting there thinking in all honesty, "Oh man, what is that D going to do?!  They have to worry about Diggs AND Davis!" or knock on wood you find yourself saying in the future, "OK, Gabe, This is you. The rock is yours, take us up.  You can do it!", then there is nothing to worry about and we are all set.*

 

 

 

(* If you think this you are the first person on planet earth who has thought this, or you are lying, because nobody has thought this before and no one believes it.  Doesn't mean I don't like him.  I just don't agree with attributes or laurels that are being thrown his way as a 2, or at one point in time people thought of as 1B.)

 

 

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts

[Process]

Not exactly breaking news. We're beating a dead horse at this point. 

[BananaB]

A lot of us have been saying that for a year now

[BADOLBILZ]

20 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Name me the majority of the teams.  I can think of 3 teams that might have a better number 2 than Davis.  I can think of one team that did win a SB that doesn't have a single WR that is better than Davis.

 

San Francisco, Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Miami........along with KC those are the other top SB contenders in the NFL.    And KC has Kelce, 2 second rounders, a first rounder and TWO Gabe Davis types in Justin Watson and MVS.   

 

And the actual majority of teams in general have better draft and/or performance pedigree at positions WR2-5 than Buffalo..........whose corps is one All Pro and a bunch of day 3 and UDFA's.

 

It's not a fluke that the Bills WR corps is not very impressive...........there hasn't been much investment there.

 

Some of our seemingly willfully ignorant TSW Gabe-pologists like to point to Gabe's counting stats but as @HappyDays already pointed out and has been re-hashed over and over........Davis puts up those counting stats because he gets a lot of chances in a corps devoid of better options with a QB who is one of the few in the league who can create the throws needed to utilize the limited Gabe Davis.    

 

His efficiency numbers have been abysmal though because doesn't move well enough or catch the ball well enough to make the easy, efficient plays.

 

And others point to his high ypc and say the drops and interceptions are just because he is targeted so deep but he's targeted deep and late in downs because he can't execute anything else.

Edited October 20, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, BBFL said:

Well this’ll make all the armchair GMs puff their chest. 
 

Half the board’s been saying this 😂

 

 

Yup. And it doesn't make anymore sense from Simms than from the armchair folks.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

It’s a hell of a lot easier finding a slot guy than a boundary WR better than Davis.

 

unless you’re Brandon Beane and can do neither.

 

A slot guy doesn't have to be just a slot only guy like Beasley or Renfrow though.

 

Cooper Kupp can play anywhere but in his 1900+ yard season he was mostly in the slot.

 

What you want as a SB contender are 2 WR's who can play anywhere.......inside or out..........then you don't have to take those guys off the field if you are playing 12 or 21 etc..   Needing to have a slot only on the field funnels you into 11 personnel.

 

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Gabe Davis' success isn't solely, but in my opinion is primarily, based on two things:  teams forgetting about him on a play, and/or teams not really concerned about him on a play.

 

In his career he has made a couple of ridiculous...and I mean RIDICULOUS toe-drag-swag receptions, but it is not the norm.  The same goes for his success or lack there of on contested passes or getting open.

 

What do I want or what am I looking for even just in a #2 receiver?  Two things:  Does the # 2 concern the Defense enough that they have to specifically plan for him, potentially causing decision issues on D between the 1 and the 2, and secondly if the #1 (heaven forbid) goes down for a period of time can you count on the #2 to be the Man?

 

So, respectfully, if you are sitting there thinking in all honesty, "Oh man, what is that D going to do?!  They have to worry about Diggs AND Davis!" or knock on wood you find yourself saying in the future, "OK, Gabe, this is you. the rock is yours, take us up.  You can do it!", then there is nothing to worry about and we are all set.*

 

 

 

(* If you think this you are the first person on planet earth who has thought this, or you are lying, because nobody has thought this before and no one believes it.  Doesn't mean I don't like him.  I just don't agree with attributes or laurels that are being thrown his way as a 2, or at one point in time people thought of as 1B.)

 

 

 

 

 

Very few teams have #2 WRs that teams specifically care about so that eliminates 90% of the teams in the NFL.  Some don't even have a #1 WR that you worry about...like how delusional are people that they actually believe this should be the standard?

[Green Lightning]

13 hours ago, BigDingus said:

What does "not a number 2" even mean anymore?

 

Do you really mean he's not a number 1 playing the number 2 role like Jalen Waddle, Tee Higgins, Tyler Lockett or Devonta Smith?

 

What kind of production do you want out of your WR2? The vast majority of NFL teams would be thrilled to have a WR2 that puts up 800+ yards, 7 TD's & extends the field like Gabe does.

 

Even right now, he's ranked #27 in receiving yards (automatically putting him ahead of multiple #1's), tied for 4th place in TD's with 5 others (ahead of others like Jamar Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, and many other WR1's, TE's, and RB's), and is only 61st in receptions. 

 

I'd say he's more than adequate as a WR2, with the only issue being he's not as big a threat in the short-intermediate game as we'd like.

Ahead of #1's on bad teams with bad QB's is a pretty low bar. Simms is saying to be elite, we need better weapons for Josh.  How many times are we going to see Josh dancing around, being chased because nobody is open. We haven't had a real complement to Diggs since Beasley.  Davis ain't getting it done. He's a downfield guy who cannot get rapid separation. It used to be elite defenses could shut us down, now even the Giants can do it. Simms is spot on. We need better receivers. 

[PBF81]

11 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

That's true because he knows the offense and has chemistry with Josh. That doesn't make him a solid WR2.

 

That's a great answer that implied many more things than perhaps you realize.  I'll break it down into the three sentences.  So this one, ... 

 

He does have chemistry with Josh, but that chemistry produces.  Our issues seem to be, generally speaking, that we either are not satisfied with his level of production, and/or that we're not content with his style, aka the way and manner which he produces.  But until someone can explain to me why a 1st-Down logged one way is not the same as one logged via another, all other things being equal, it would still seem to be a 1st-Down.  My position is that as long as it produces, then who cares how he classifies as a WR or whether or not he's a classic #2 WR, right?  

 

Maybe our system, aka "The Process" apparently, isn't designed for a classic #2.  I don't know.  We don't know.  There are complexities to it all, and it's a fair assumption that the coaching staff hasn't even figured it out, based on the premise that if they have, then we wouldn't perpetually having this discussion about our WRs and WR corps.  But let's be clear, it's their system, it's what they have obviously wanted here.  

 

But here's the thing, how can we honestly entirely dismiss what you said, that Davis knows the offense and has chemistry with Josh, as being insignificant enough to warrant bringing in a more traditional #2 WR that won't necessarily have chemistry with Josh and for sure won't know the offense off the bat.  Maybe he would, over time, but it's hardly guaranteed.  And with Josh we don't have the typical Brady/Burrow type pocket passing game. 

 

Which WRs besides Diggs would you say that Josh has a chemistry with?   I don't see any in particular.  He had chemistry with Beasley, the only other WR that he did have it with on a consistent basis.  

 

 

11 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The Bills should have upgraded the WR2 position.

 

They should have done a lot of things, including upgraded the OL too, ... at some point over the past 6 seasons that Beane has had to do so.  Granted, he did it this season effectively, but again, defenses appear to be figuring out our offense so we'll see how that progresses. 

 

But more relevantly, maybe having that classic and far more traditional #2 WR would require more time in the pocket and therefore a QB that's more prone to pocket-passing and all predicated upon having a notably better OL.  I don't know, just throwing that out there.  But again, it's more complex than most of us realize, and not finding a classic #2 WR that is, but the entire situation.   Some cart/horse stuff in there IMO.  

 

The reason why Davis is still here is because there's no chance on earth that they were going to cut the only other WR besides Diggs that Josh had chemistry with, and that has come at a price tag of less than $1M/season and not even that for this season.  Is he worth $5M/season?  Yes, obviously.  $15M/season?  I can't say but probably not.  So where's that dividing line?  

 

Suppose we bring in another "#2 WR," to start, how do we know that he'll have any chemistry with Josh?   And then how do we know he'd be any better?  

Wouldn't it make more sense to keep Davis until such a time?  IOW, fine, bring in the desired #2 WR, if he works, great, let Davis operate in "his role" then also.  I see no conflict there.  I do see a huge risk, particularly given the game of musical chairs that we've been playing for Beane's 6-year tenure, of not having Davis and plugging-n-playing the next big signing WR on the list.  Let's face it, their methodology in staffing the WR corps has been on the opposite end of the spectrum from inspiring.  Even before this season, the arguments I got into about how Harty and Sherfield were not going to make a significant impact, getting hammered as to the opposite, which has essentially been the take every preseason, how "the experts know more than we do," yet here we are, again, and "the experts" aren't getting the job done.  At least that's the recurring theme and narrative, now with Chris Simms chiming in with his two cents.  

 

At the end of the day the Bills should have done a lot of things, like bolstering their OL for Allen, their likely never-to-be-had-again generational talent at QB.  But they didn't.  If the situation is to be corrected, someone has look at the why, how, etc. of it all and pull the trigger on the corrections.  But we've been shuffling WRs in and out for over half a decade now in this never-ending game of musical chairs and we're still discussing the issue.  

 

 

11 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Obviously, Kincaid isn't that guy. 

 

Apparently not as he wasn't brought in for that.  But we're not even using him for what they said he was brought in for.  That would appear to be a coaching issue.  There was absolutely nothing but praise for Kincaid as sure-handed pass-catcher that could run routes well.  The comparisons were of him to Kelce by many.  The reality is that he's been more like Scott Chandler or Charles Clay.  

 

So why can't our team use him like that?  It obviously shouldn't be talent and it seems to me that if he were on another team, Philly, KC, Cincy in particular, Miami, and others that he'd be doing a whole lot more in the receiving department than he is here, even others than aren't overall good teams, just with more competent offensive management/coaching.  

 

Same with Hines who was a prolific receiving RB, but not here, where he did zilch.  

 

So it's quite possible that they're also not getting what they can from Davis, but to ignore that it could very well be coaching that is the issue, is a mistake.  

 

But for anyone to suggest, other than on speculation that another/other WRs would be better, that Davis ain't cutting it or the equivalent, and in and of itself, is a mistake. 

 

I do think that competent management/coaching of our offense would correct the situation.  I have no idea why that isn't the prevalent narrative and opinion at this point, with a "defensive-minded" and offensively laissez-faire head-coach at the helm of this rig.  

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by PBF81

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

What’s the average contract for a WR3? 

 

 

Less than Gabe will get.

 

The 60th highest AAV WR salary is $3.4M. 

 

The 50th highest AAV WR is$4.75M.

 

Gave will more than double that 50th highest.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Thurman#1

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Less than Gabe will get.

Why?  Don't these teams all know Gabe sucks?!?!  No one tell them...

[Aimee75]

Simms has been on this for about three years now, and I cannot disagree with him. He felt we needed more weapons in 2021, when we also had Sanders and Beasely. Sanders was a great deep threat with his speed, and Beasely was reliable for Josh.

 

Now we have Diggs, and none of the other safety nets we used to have.

 

It's so disappointing how stubborn Beane has been about this. I don't get it. We literally sat there in the offseason, watching "good' teams get better(like The Dolphins) and he was like "nah, we're good". Don't get me wrong, I do think our team is very good, and we can score a lot of points when things are going well, but I cannot sit here and say we have an offense that is as strong as other teams in our conference. 

 

Completely agree with Chris, and feel so disappointed that we are still in this spot. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Very few teams have #2 WRs that teams specifically care about so that eliminates 90% of the teams in the NFL.  Some don't even have a #1 WR that you worry about...like how delusional are people that they actually believe this should be the standard?

 

Thanks, BT, because essentially you're agreeing with me.  

 

You're just comfortable with explaining it away as not being feasible.

 

Me...I'd like to be in the 10%.  I don't want my team to be the standard.  I want them to be the exception, or at least see what the air is like over there to judge and not potentially waste a generational talent at QB.  

 

You see I lived through a time that was pretty successful with this team when there were two future Hall of Famers at WR. Those Bills apologize to you, wholeheartedly, for not being standard.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts

[Mango]

11 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Gabe Davis' success isn't solely, but in my opinion is primarily, based on two things:  teams forgetting about him on a play, and/or teams not really concerned about him on a play.

 

In his career he has made a couple of ridiculous...and I mean RIDICULOUS toe-drag-swag receptions, but it is not the norm.  The same goes for his success or lack there of on contested passes or getting open.

 

What do I want or what am I looking for even just in a #2 receiver?  Two things:  Does the # 2 concern the Defense enough that they have to specifically plan for him, potentially causing decision issues on D between the 1 and the 2, and secondly if the #1 (heaven forbid) goes down for a period of time can you count on the #2 to be the Man?

 

So, respectfully, if you are sitting there thinking in all honesty, "Oh man, what is that D going to do?!  They have to worry about Diggs AND Davis!" or knock on wood you find yourself saying in the future, "OK, Gabe, This is you. The rock is yours, take us up.  You can do it!", then there is nothing to worry about and we are all set.*

 

 

 

(* If you think this you are the first person on planet earth who has thought this, or you are lying, because nobody has thought this before and no one believes it.  Doesn't mean I don't like him.  I just don't agree with attributes or laurels that are being thrown his way as a 2, or at one point in time people thought of as 1B.)

 

 

 

 

 

Cool, great. We should always be throwing the ball to the players teams ignore. 

Seriously. If they don't cover a guy, that guy should get the ball. I don't know why this is a knock. 

The amount we don't throw to the open guy on A-22 has driven me nuts season after season. If it is 4th and 10 with the season on the line, sure I can see "trusting your guy". But on 2nd and 8, to leave us at 3rd an 8 over and over again is so incredibly frustrating and defeating for an offense. 

As of late this board has been a circle jerk of "Allen can't do everything" but also "Allen needs to run more" and "Just keep tossing the ball to Diggs, the rest of the field be damned". The whole thing is counter intuitive. The entire offense isn't coming to a stand still at times because Gabe Davis is a mediocre second option on the perimeter. 2022 Diggs was the least targeted Diggs since he came to Buffalo. Losing Sanders, Beasley, or Daboll didn't change that. 

 

 

[Scott7975]

11 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Very few teams have #2 WRs that teams specifically care about so that eliminates 90% of the teams in the NFL.  Some don't even have a #1 WR that you worry about...like how delusional are people that they actually believe this should be the standard?

 

The superbowl contenders do.

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The superbowl contenders do.

Yes, please tell him about the reigning champs full arsenal!   

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

Thanks, BT, because essentially you're agreeing with me.  

 

You're just comfortable with explaining it away as not being feasible.

 

Me...I'd like to be in the 10%.  I don't want my team to be the standard.  I want them to be the exception, or at least see what the air is like over there to judge and not potentially waste a generational talent at QB.  

 

You see I lived through a time that was pretty successful with this team when there were two future Hall of Famers at WR. Those Bills apologize to you, wholeheartedly, for not being standard.

 

 

 

 

 

 

They also lived in a time without a Salary Cap or "Real" Free Agency.

 

The only way that makes sense in today's world to do that is via drafting a WR and having rookie wage scale for 4 years and then letting them go when they reach year 5(if they aren't a #1 pick that has a 5th year option), or possibly picking up a 5th year option.

 

Bills will need to probably pick one in the first round next year if they want someone who legitimately can fill that role and might have to move up to do so.  Or trade for one again, but that's unlikely since they are already paying Diggs big money...Eagles were able to do it since they had Devonta Smith on a rookie deal and had no big $ allocated to WR at the time. Same with Dolphins trading for Hill while Waddle was on a rookie deal.

 

Cincy has it because Burrow got hurt and they lucked out for a year and were able to draft 3rd and get Chase after having Higgins.  As Beane said, I hope we don't suck enough to be lucky enough to draft a WR like Chase.  However, they already have let Higgins people know they have no plans to resign him so he will be leaving after this year.

 

The only teams with 2 high paid WR's are the Chargers(how's that look now that Williams is out for the year?) and the Bucs with Evans and Godwin...and they aren't great either.

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Big Turk

[SWATeam]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

And KC has Kelce, 2 second rounders, a first rounder and TWO Gabe Davis types in Justin Watson and MVS.   

 

Ah yes, the Chiefs HUGE investment in Kadarius Toney!  Right on par with the big move the Bills made in signing Corey Coleman!

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

They also lived in a time without a Salary Cap or "Real" Free Agency.

 

The only way that makes sense in today's world to do that is via drafting a WR and having rookie wage scale for 4 years and then letting them go when they reach year 5(if they aren't a #1 pick that has a 5th year option), or possibly picking up a 5th year option.

 

Bills will need to probably pick one in the first round next year if they want someone who legitimately can fill that role and might have to move up to do so.  Or trade for one again, but that's unlikely since they are already paying Diggs big money...Eagles were able to do it since they had Devonta Smith on a rookie deal and had no big $ allocated to WR at the time. Same with Dolphins trading for Hill while Waddle was on a rookie deal.

 

Cincy has it because Burrow got hurt and they lucked out for a year and were able to draft 3rd and get Chase after having Higgins.  However, they already have let Higgins people know they have no plans to resign him so he will be leaving after this year.

 

The only teams with 2 high paid WR's are the Chargers(how's that look now that Williams is out for the year?) and the Bucs with Evans and Godwin...and they aren't great either.

 

 

 

BT, I did not hate your first post to me.  I was just responding to it.

 

However, your post above?  I agree.  

 

Really good post.

 

Not even going to comment other than that because you already stated it.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The superbowl contenders do.

 

What WR do you care about on KC? Do they even have 1? Are you claiming they aren't a SB contender?

Edited October 19, 2023 by Big Turk