Allen's completion percentage - Him, or Dorsey or the weapons

[FireChans]

Josh Allen currently has the highest completion percentage of his career, 74.8 percent.

 

For context, he had 1 game above that last season, and his second highest percentage was 68%.

 

In 2021, he had 3 games above that, including playoffs.

 

Is this the new Josh?  Has he and Dorsey gotten on the same page finally in regards to running the offense?  Is he benefiting from Cook and Kincaid and the gang?

 

What say you.

[NewEra]

Mostly Josh throwing short + a good amount of Dorsey + a splash of the playmakers.  

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Mostly Josh throwing short + a good amount of Dorsey + a splash of the playmakers.  

I thought that too, but Josh has the second highest YPA of his career thus far.

[Warcodered]

Combination of the 3.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

I thought that too, but Josh has the second highest YPA of his career thus far.

Interesting.  Anyone have access to a breakdown of his passes?  
 

I’d also really like to see the RAC difference this year as compared to last if anyone has it. 

[GoBills808]

want to say offensive line

 

and some pretty bad defenses

[Gugny]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh Allen currently has the highest completion percentage of his career, 74.8 percent.

 

For context, he had 1 game above that last season, and his second highest percentage was 68%.

 

In 2021, he had 3 games above that, including playoffs.

 

Is this the new Josh?  Has he and Dorsey gotten on the same page finally in regards to running the offense?  Is he benefiting from Cook and Kincaid and the gang?

 

What say you.

Smart Josh is better than dumb (hero ball) Josh. 
 

This is something Andy Reid got across to Mahomes early on. 
 

It’s taken too long with McDermott - but better late than never (we hope). 

[Franco_92]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Interesting.  Anyone have access to a breakdown of his passes?  
 

I’d also really like to see the RAC difference this year as compared to last if anyone has it. 

I don't have #s for you but before Miami our RAC actually was only marginally improved from last hear. But then we got LOADS of it in the Miami game, and not just from the Diggs TD

[Ralonzo]

Taking away Tua's first read seemed to work. Josh's first read is usually the longest developing route, touchdowns first right? Jets did that pretty well.

 

But, people are hinting at his reads not always being long-to-short these last 3 weeks. Sometimes it is... often it isn't. And because sometimes the deep read IS the primary, if it's there the shot will get taken. So YPA wouldn't be drastically diminished.

 

If that is the M.O. going forward God help opposing DC's because that breaks the whole shell paradigm. An offense that can effectively attack short, intermediate and deep, inside the numbers and outside, from under center, shotgun and play action, with various personnel packages, and runs the ball too? Seems like that would be a problem.

 

Now figure out how to run friggin' screens, you'll be immortal.

[Coach Tuesday]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

want to say offensive line

 

and some pretty bad defenses

Yeah fixing the interior line so he’s able to step up and throw has done wonders for his mechanics, which started to really get away from him last season bc he was so jittery back there. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, arcane said:

I don't have #s for you but before Miami our RAC actually was only marginally improved from last hear. But then we got LOADS of it in the Miami game, and not just from the Diggs TD

Yeah latavious and cook had some nice gainers.  Shak had a decent rac 1st down.  

[buffaloboyinATL]

D. All of the above. 
 

I think it is Josh finally deciding to take what the Defense gives him, and realizing that the team around him is so good, that we can dominate, without him having to do it all himself. 
 

it is currently just a blip on the radar, but if the Bills can sustain this style for awhile, this will be a fun season for all of us.  

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yeah fixing the interior line so he’s able to step up and throw has done wonders for his mechanics, which started to really get away from him last season bc he was so jittery back there. 

Yeah he looks way more comfortable w protection this year so far

 

Have to think that plays as big a role as anything altho I do think Dorsey is doing a nice job giving him easy answers

[Reks Ryan]

I saw a random stat on ESPN after the Raiders game, that Allen was the first QB in history to have 3 games with an 80%+ completion rate and at least 3 TDs before the age of 30.   After the dominant performance against Miami he's now done it 4 times at the age of 27.  

 

For several years, Allen's been capable of blistering hot streaks where he's very accurate and nearly unstoppable.  His play style makes it difficult to keep up 74% game by game.    IMO he'll go through some ups & downs through the season and finish the year around 70%.    As long as he keeps producing TDs and limits the TO's it's OK if his complettion % dips from the currnent rate.

 

In addtion to the factors mentioned above, I think his improved pocket presence have helped completion % the last 3 weeks.  Less scrambling around and throws on the run or throw aways.

[billsfan89]

Josh Allen had a solid offensive line in 2020. Dawkins and D. Williams were a top 5 tackle pairing, Mitch was a top 5 center and the guard play was competent. Josh also had peak Cole Beasley being a reliable WR2. Josh's completion percentage that year was 69.3% and his INT ratio was 1.7%. 

 

The Bills in 2021 had offensive line issues most of the season and Cole Beasley regressed. Josh's completion percentage dropped to a good 63.3% but far from his elite 2020 percentage. Josh's INT ratio jumped to 2.3% as well. 

 

In 2021 the Bills reshuffled their offensive line, kicking D.Williams inside to guard and inserting Spencer Brown at RT and Bates at LG. They finally inserted Bates at LG in week 16 in 2021 and Josh having a really good offensive line and a solid WR core played 5 games of really good football despite throwing 3 INTs against the Falcons in a weird rainy game had a much better INT percentage at 1.66% in those 5 games and just crushed everyone until the 13 seconds game. 

 

2022 Josh had a terrible O-line, mediocre RB's and a group of pass catchers that outside of Diggs wasn't playing well. His completion percentage flatlined again at 63.3% and his INT rate went up a touch to 2.5%. 

 

This year after a rocky week 1 the offensive supporting cast is playing much better. Torrence and McGovern have changed the quality of the offensive line (Dawkins and Brown are playing much better too), the RB's are playing well and the supporting WR's around Diggs are playing their roles. As a result Josh has thrown 8 TD's to 1 INT and has a sub 1% percentage and has an insane completion percentage. 

 

TLDR: Josh since 2020 has always been Josh but the play around him makes the difference. Right now the players around Josh are playing well which is allowing Josh to be super human. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by billsfan89

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

He realized he lost the jets game for his team and teammates by being stupid.
 

He decided to stop being stupid. 
 

it’s really that simple. 

The short chain movers have ALWAYS been there

Nothing else changes that dramatically that quickly in this game. 

[Billy Claude]

Here is the data on air yards from Pro-Football-Reference.  Obviously the 2023 stats are based on only four games, three of which were blowouts that did not require too many long passes, however, the difference between Allen last year and this year is pretty stunning.

 

Air Yards Per Attempt

 

(2022)

#1 Mariotta  10.4

#2 Tagovailoa  9.5

#3 Allen 9.2

 

(2023)

#1 Love 10.2

#2 Tannehill 10.0

#3 Watson 9.5

#17 Allen 7.5

 

Completed Air Yards Per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Tagovailoa  8.8

#2 Allen 7.5

#3 Mariotta 7.2

 

(2023)

#1 Garroppolo  7.8

#2 Love 7.5

#3 Stafford 7.4

#25 Allen 5.2

 

Yards After Catch per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Garropolo 7.0

#2 Mahomes 6.6

#3 Z. Wilson 6.1

#32 Allen 4.6

 

(2023)

#1 Tagovailoa 6.4

#2 Richardson 6.2

#3 Stroud 6.1

#8 Allen 5.2

 

I think it is clear that from that from the beginning of the season, Dorsey wanted to put more emphasis on the short game but Allen didn't have the patience to keep that going initially.  

 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Billy Claude

[Ray Stonada]

It’s hitting the open man for 5 yards. That’s what makes the completion percentage so much higher and it adds more possibility of YAC.
 

It also means longer drives with more plays, tiring the defense who then miss tackles and give up even more YAC. 
 

But the line has to hold up for three seconds to let this happen. Been doing it well this happen. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Josh and the weapons.

 

No dorsey

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

Here is the data on air yards from Pro-Football-Reference.  Obviously the 2023 stats are based on only four games, three of which were blowouts that did not require too many long passes, however, the difference between Allen last year and this year is pretty stunning.

 

Air Yards Per Attempt

 

(2022)

#1 Mariotta  10.4

#2 Tagovailoa  9.5

#3 Allen 9.2

 

(2023)

#1 Love 10.2

#2 Tannehill 10.0

#3 Watson 9.5

#17 Allen 7.5

 

Completed Air Yards Per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Tagovailoa  8.8

#2 Allen 7.5

#3 Mariotta 7.2

 

(2023)

#1 Garroppolo  7.8

#2 Love 7.5

#3 Stafford 7.4

#25 Allen 5.2

 

Yards After Catch per Completion

 

(2022)

#1 Garropolo 7.0

#2 Mahomes 6.6

#3 Z. Wilson 6.1

#32 Allen 4.6

 

(2023)

#1 Tagovailoa 6.4

#2 Richardson 6.2

#3 Stroud 6.1

#8 Allen 5.2

 

I think it is clear that from that from the beginning of the season, Dorsey wanted to put more emphasis on the short game but Allen didn't have the patience to keep that going initially.  

 

 

 

@NewEra this is what you were looking for and you were right.