2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Warcodered]

14 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

What?

Tua has a higher YPG and his TD per game is equal. He has a 0.45 INT ratio compared to Allens 54% Int ratio. He also has a higher completion percentage, and blows him out of the water on Passer Rating. Most importantly, he's winning.

and yet Allen has scored 11 more TDs than him.

[BullBuchanan]

4 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

and yet Allen has scored 11 more TDs than him.

We already covered rushing TDs. I personally don't think they mean very much for a QB, because it's just siphoning TDs that in most offenses would go to a RB. What else you got?

Tua will probably drop another 3-4TDs this week and leave Allen even further in the dust in every other category.

Besides Tua, He'd also definitely be behind Dak, Jackson, Purdy, Stroud, and likely Mahomes.  Hurts, Goff, Herbert and Allen are all playing pretty equally this year with the primary difference being two of them are leading their teams to piles of wins, Allen is .500 and Herbert is in the basement. After the Bills bye, it's not unrealistic for them all to have pretty identical stat lines.

[CincyBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We already covered rushing TDs. I personally don't think they mean very much for a QB, because it's just siphoning TDs that in most offenses would go to a RB. What else you got?
 

Except that over the last few years our stable of RB's haven't been very good at scoring TD's on the ground. How many times has 1st & goal from the 5 turned into 2nd a goal from the 7 after handing the ball off?  Harris was supposed to be the RB that took over scoring TD's from inside the 10 but he got hurt. And the last I looked it's not like Allen is doing the Tush Push or diving over the pile from the half yard line to score his TD's  In fact here are Allen's 9 TD runs:  1 yard, 2 yards, 3 yards, 6 yards, 9 yards, 10 yards, 11 yards, 13 yards & 16 yards.

 

I wish we had a RB that could score TD's from those distances in 12 games.  But alas we haven't had one that could do it over the last 6 seasons.

 

 

[Scott7975]

24 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We already covered rushing TDs. I personally don't think they mean very much for a QB, because it's just siphoning TDs that in most offenses would go to a RB. What else you got?

Tua will probably drop another 3-4TDs this week and leave Allen even further in the dust in every other category.

Besides Tua, He'd also definitely be behind Dak, Jackson, Purdy, Stroud, and likely Mahomes.  Hurts, Goff, Herbert and Allen are all playing pretty equally this year with the primary difference being two of them are leading their teams to piles of wins, Allen is .500 and Herbert is in the basement. After the Bills bye, it's not unrealistic for them all to have pretty identical stat lines.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We already covered rushing TDs. I personally don't think they mean very much for a QB, because it's just siphoning TDs that in most offenses would go to a RB. What else you got?

 

I used to think the same but Allen is one of the best QB’s in the  league in terms of scoring rushing TD’s from 5 yards out or beyond. A lot of his are in that 5-10 yard spot on the field. Those are not guaranteed TD’s for RB’s in that range. 
 

He’s not getting tush pushed into the end zone from 1 yard out very often. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I guess you're conceding?

[Scott7975]

15 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I guess you're conceding?

 

Conceding what?  It was just a joke and now it's pretty realistic... you actually do need the shot.

 

If you actually want me to respond... Not all of Allen's TDs are from Tush Push range.  How many little 1 yard flips does a QB like Mahomes or Jackson have that count as passing TDs?  Same basic idea of your flawed premise.

Edited December 1, 2023 by Scott7975

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

29 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We already covered rushing TDs. I personally don't think they mean very much for a QB, because it's just siphoning TDs that in most offenses would go to a RB. What else you got?

 

let’s further expand on this. Because in theory I think it is usually somewhat true. How valuable really are TD’s from a QB inside the 2 yard line?

 

Josh Allen 47 career rushing TD’s

 

3 or fewer yards - 22 (47%)

10-19 yards out -  12 (26%)

4-9 yards out - 11 (23%)

30 or more - 2 (4%)

20-29 yards out -1 (2%)

 

Jalen Hurts 37 career rushing TD’s

 

3 or fewer yards out - 25 (68%)

4-9 yards out - 6 (16%)

10-19 yards out - 3 (8%)

20-29 yards our - 3 (8%)

 

There is a massive difference between the typical Jalen Hurts rushing TD and a Josh Allen rushing TD.

[BullBuchanan]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Conceding what?  It was just a joke and now it's pretty realistic... you actually do need the shot.

 

If you actually want me to respond... Not all of Allen's TDs are from Tush Push range.  How many little 1 yard flips does a QB like Mahomes or Jackson have that count as passing TDs?  Same basic idea of your flawed premise.

I'm not fighting rushing TDs. Josh is clearly one of the top 2 rushing QBs in the NFL, he's also one of the overall most athletic QBs in the NFL. Most of my post was about other things.

[Scott7975]

14 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not fighting rushing TDs. Josh is clearly one of the top 2 rushing QBs in the NFL, he's also one of the overall most athletic QBs in the NFL. Most of my post was about other things.

 

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

We already covered rushing TDs. I personally don't think they mean very much for a QB, because it's just siphoning TDs that in most offenses would go to a RB. What else you got?

 

 

I'm not fighting MVP because its a record reward, not an actual play reward.  Allen will never see this reward this season.  I would argue a season he should have seen it.  Maybe even two.  He didn't win the one seed though so...  I would also argue Allen has done a lot more in his career with less than these other guys and that the standard seems much higher for him. 

 

I am commenting on just your post about QB runs though.  You clearly wrote that you don't think they mean much.  If they don't mean much then neither should these little 1 yard flips or little flips behind the los count as a passing TD mean much.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Scott7975

[ToGoGo]

16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

let’s further expand on this. Because in theory I think it is usually somewhat true. How valuable really are TD’s from a QB inside the 2 yard line?

 

Josh Allen 47 career rushing TD’s

 

3 or fewer yards - 22 (47%)

10-19 yards out -  12 (26%)

4-9 yards out - 11 (23%)

30 or more - 2 (4%)

20-29 yards out -1 (2%)

 

Jalen Hurts 37 career rushing TD’s

 

3 or fewer yards out - 25 (68%)

4-9 yards out - 6 (16%)

10-19 yards out - 3 (8%)

20-29 yards our - 3 (8%)

 

There is a massive difference between the typical Jalen Hurts rushing TD and a Josh Allen rushing TD.

Thank you for destroying common narratives. 
 

Josh Allen is the best QB of our generation. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

 

I'm not fighting MVP because its a record reward, not an actual play reward.  Allen will never see this reward this season.  I would argue a season he should have seen it.  Maybe even two.  He didn't win the one seed though so...  I would also argue Allen has done a lot more in his career with less than these other guys and that the standard seems much higher for him. 

 

I am commenting on just your post about QB runs though.  You clearly wrote that you don't think they mean much.  If they don't mean much then neither should these little 1 yard flips or little flips behind the los count as a passing TD mean much.

I'm not arguing those should either. Frankly, trying to evaluate the best player via aggregate stats is a dumb way to measure performance regardless. They do nothing to tell you the value that a player added to a play, game, or season over another player.

[Scott7975]

57 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not arguing those should either. Frankly, trying to evaluate the best player via aggregate stats is a dumb way to measure performance regardless. They do nothing to tell you the value that a player added to a play, game, or season over another player.

 

So have you gone and removed all those and then compared TD passes?  I doubt it.

[Warcodered]

On 12/1/2023 at 5:14 PM, BullBuchanan said:

Tua will probably drop another 3-4TDs this week and leave Allen even further in the dust in every other category.

Well so much for that.

[BullBuchanan]

14 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Well so much for that.

So much for what? Did you miss his dominating performance?

[Warcodered]

13 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

So much for what? Did you miss his dominating performance?

3-4 TDs and leave Allen in the dust...well he did catch up in passing TDs by having 2 so you know not the 3-4 day you predicted, as to leaving him in the dust in other categories yeah he didn't really do that. As to his dominating performance his running backs had a hell of a day with 3 TDs. Obviously he had a good day but he definitely didn't do what you said he would.

 

Honestly with the schedule the Dolphins have left I wouldn't be surprised if Allen passed him in passing TDs and yards again.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

3-4 TDs and leave Allen in the dust...well he did catch up in passing TDs by having 2 so you know not the 3-4 day you predicted, as to leaving him in the dust in other categories yeah he didn't really do that. As to his dominating performance his running backs had a hell of a day with 3 TDs. Obviously he had a good day but he definitely didn't do what you said he would.

 

Honestly with the schedule the Dolphins have left I wouldn't be surprised if Allen passed him in passing TDs and yards again.

He absolutely did though. He completed 75% of his passes with a 141 passer rating. He was just shy of perfect and had his team resting by half time. He now leads Allen in every meaningful passing category. Are you trying to look silly?

[Warcodered]

11 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

He absolutely did though. He completed 75% of his passes with a 141 passer rating. He was just shy of perfect and had his team resting by half time. He now leads Allen in every meaningful passing category. Are you trying to look silly?

Not in passing TDs.

[Chicken Boo]

On 12/1/2023 at 7:14 PM, ToGoGo said:

Thank you for destroying common narratives. 
 

Josh Allen is the best QB of our generation. 

 

At his best, he sure looks like it, but he needs to be more consistent. 

 

Over these next 5 weeks, I'm expecting we'll see MVP level Josh.

[BullBuchanan]

7 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Not in passing TDs.

He's tied and has less INTs. Try again.

[finn]

On 12/1/2023 at 5:57 PM, BullBuchanan said:

Nope, I'm just not one of those morons who thinks he's the bets player in the NFL.

I think Allen is the best player in the league, and I'm not a moron. He and Mahomes are a cut above every other quarterback. Allen is being let down by his coaches and both are held back by their surrounding cast, but they're easily among the most talented, productive players the league has ever seen. Allen does it all, week after week. 

 

What, are you buying the Narrative? Allen the turnover machine who can't win in the clutch? 

[Warcodered]

16 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

He's tied and has less INTs. Try again.

Tied a word that does not mean leading.

35 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

He now leads Allen in every meaningful passing category.

 

 

So are we counting him having more fumbles and fumbles lost him leading as well?

Edited December 4, 2023 by Warcodered

[transplantbillsfan]

On 12/1/2023 at 1:14 PM, BullBuchanan said:

We already covered rushing TDs. I personally don't think they mean very much for a QB, because it's just siphoning TDs that in most offenses would go to a RB. What else you got?

Tua will probably drop another 3-4TDs this week and leave Allen even further in the dust in every other category.

Besides Tua, He'd also definitely be behind Dak, Jackson, Purdy, Stroud, and likely Mahomes.  Hurts, Goff, Herbert and Allen are all playing pretty equally this year with the primary difference being two of them are leading their teams to piles of wins, Allen is .500 and Herbert is in the basement. After the Bills bye, it's not unrealistic for them all to have pretty identical stat lines.

 

First of all, it's really, really stupid to not count rushing TDs.  Your logic would make sense on plays like the tush push or maybe even designed QB runs.  But several of Allen's rushing TDs are on designed passing plays.  Those aren't TDs you can argue in any way are being siphoned away from RBs.

 

As for everything else, Allen still has the 2nd most passing TDs in the NFL (tied with Tua) and is blowing everyone else out of the water as far as total TDs go.

[BullBuchanan]

10 hours ago, finn said:

I think Allen is the best player in the league, and I'm not a moron. He and Mahomes are a cut above every other quarterback. Allen is being let down by his coaches and both are held back by their surrounding cast, but they're easily among the most talented, productive players the league has ever seen. Allen does it all, week after week. 

 

What, are you buying the Narrative? Allen the turnover machine who can't win in the clutch? 

Those two statements are mutually exclusive. Mahomes could retire today and go down as a first ballot Hall of Famer. Mahomes has 2 Super Bowl Championships, 2 SB MVPs, 2 league MVPS, 2 1st team all pros, 5 straight AFC Championship appearances (every year he's started), 2 time league passing leader, and is currently the #1 all time leader in passer rating.

 

Josh Allen has 1 AFC championship appearance. That's it. He doesn't play the same sport as Mahomes and never will. We've had so few quality QBs in Bills history that our entire sense of scale is thrown off, and we say ridiculous things. Josh Allen, is very, very good. He's a top 5 QB and a top 20 NFL talent. We can argue all day about the nuance of where he falls in those numbers, but that should be enough.

Edited December 5, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[Aussie Joe]

I see Purdy now MVP favourite..

 

I tried to tell you guys …, not to bet him .. 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Those two statements are mutually exclusive. Mahomes could retire today and go down as a first ballot Hall of Famer. Mahomes has 2 Super Bowl Championships, 2 SB MVPs, 2 league MVPS, 2 1st team all pros, 5 straight AFC Championship appearances (every year he's started), 2 time league passing leader, and is currently the #1 all time leader in passer rating.

 

Josh Allen has 1 AFC championship appearance. That's it. He doesn't play the same sport as Mahomes and never will. We've had so few quality QBs in Bills history that our entire sense of scale is thrown off, and we say ridiculous things. Josh Allen, is very, very good. He's a top 5 QB and a top 20 NFL talent. We can argue all day about the nuance of where he falls in those numbers, but that should be enough.

 

Mahomes is not the best player in the league this year. He's not the best QB in the league. He's not the best QB in his conference.

 

I think I would accept arguments that QBs like Purdy and maybe Hurts and Tua are as good as Allen this year.

 

Not Mahomes.

 

NFL

 

Not

For

Long

 

Mahomes is a 1st ballot HOFer. But he's no longer the best QB in the NFL. Probably just a down year, but we'll see.

8 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I see Purdy now MVP favourite..

 

I tried to tell you guys …, not to bet him .. 

 

Yeah helps when you have HOF talent all around you.

[Aussie Joe]

19 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah helps when you have HOF talent all around you.

Should have bet Purdy then ..

 

 

[finn]

8 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Those two statements are mutually exclusive. Mahomes could retire today and go down as a first ballot Hall of Famer. Mahomes has 2 Super Bowl Championships, 2 SB MVPs, 2 league MVPS, 2 1st team all pros, 5 straight AFC Championship appearances (every year he's started), 2 time league passing leader, and is currently the #1 all time leader in passer rating.

 

Josh Allen has 1 AFC championship appearance. That's it. He doesn't play the same sport as Mahomes and never will. We've had so few quality QBs in Bills history that our entire sense of scale is thrown off, and we say ridiculous things. Josh Allen, is very, very good. He's a top 5 QB and a top 20 NFL talent. We can argue all day about the nuance of where he falls in those numbers, but that should be enough.

You're articulating a position most NFL fans agree with, so I'm not going to dismiss you. But I disagree. Your premise if that the quality of a given QB is determined mostly, if not exclusively, by the number of championships he wins. I get it: winners win. But put Mahomes on a lousy team with lousy coaches. Does he win championships? No. Does that mean that exactly the same player is suddenly no longer the best? In your calculus, yes, it does. It follows, then, that Mahomes is in large part a product of the organization around him. 

 

You could argue that a godlike figure like Mahomes would lift the others around him, so he would win championships even with the Giants O-line, the Bears' receivers, the Cardinals defense, and Rex Ryan as head coach. I don't buy it. A stellar talent could take a B or B+ team all the way, sure, just as an average QB on an otherwise excellent team could win Super Bowls. But you can't judge a QB with a single metric, even championships. That's not a trump card, no matter how triumphantly you play it. 

 

Also, to say Allen doesn't play the same sport as Mahomes is, well, are you trying to be provocative? Let me be provocative right back: Allen is better than Mahomes. He's objectively bigger, faster, stronger, and more athletic, and he does more with less. The only counter-argument you have is the championships point, which, again, is just one criteria that's outweighed, I think, by the impact of the respective head coaches alone. The 13-seconds game is a perfect illustration.

 

No, give me a choice of QBs to build a team around, and I'd take Allen every time.  

 

 

[BBFL]

9 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Those two statements are mutually exclusive. Mahomes could retire today and go down as a first ballot Hall of Famer. Mahomes has 2 Super Bowl Championships, 2 SB MVPs, 2 league MVPS, 2 1st team all pros, 5 straight AFC Championship appearances (every year he's started), 2 time league passing leader, and is currently the #1 all time leader in passer rating.

 

Josh Allen has 1 AFC championship appearance. That's it. He doesn't play the same sport as Mahomes and never will. We've had so few quality QBs in Bills history that our entire sense of scale is thrown off, and we say ridiculous things. Josh Allen, is very, very good. He's a top 5 QB and a top 20 NFL talent. We can argue all day about the nuance of where he falls in those numbers, but that should be enough.

Chris Collinsworth…

 

[DJB]

Only way Allen wins is if he somehow gets us in the playoffs 

[2003Contenders]

6 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I see Purdy now MVP favourite..

 

I tried to tell you guys …, not to bet him .. 

This one I just don't get. Not taking anything away from Purdy because he has operated exceptionally within that offense. But that offense is LOADED, has a fantastic offensive line and arguably the best play caller in the league as head coach. Compare that to what Mahomes, Allen (or even Stroud) have surrounding them.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I see Purdy now MVP favourite..

 

I tried to tell you guys …, not to bet him .. 

 

I think Dak ends up winning it. He's playing exceptionally well right now. If he can keep it up against some of the quality teams they have down the stretch he will win. Feels like sports media is trying to find reasons not to have to give it to Purdy. That is working against Purdy right now. It also feels like the 49ers are all about Deebo and to a lesser extent McCaffery. Purdy and the 49ers loss all three games Deebo missed. Their only losses on the year. That should be a big determining factor against Purdy for MVP. 

[DapperCam]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I think Dak ends up winning it. He's playing exceptionally well right now. If he can keep it up against some of the quality teams they have down the stretch he will win. Feels like sports media is trying to find reasons not to have to give it to Purdy. That is working against Purdy right now. It also feels like the 49ers are all about Deebo and to a lesser extent McCaffery. Purdy and the 49ers loss all three games Deebo missed. Their only losses on the year. That should be a big determining factor against Purdy for MVP. 

Dak would make sense, because it feels like the media has always "wanted" him to be a top QB. They pump him up even when he's going through mediocre stretches. Probably because Dallas is a huge media market and fan base.

When Josh Allen goes through a mediocre stretch they get out the spit and roast him over an open flame.

[balln]

Well. Josh Allen as awesome as he can be … just is too darn inconsistent. He doesn’t make the routine play ENOUGH. His ceiling is so high. But his floor can be so low. 
 

and the betting public agrees. He’s +6000. Around Goff , Trevor Lawrence , Cj stroud. And just above myles

garret and Micah parsons.

MVPs win a game in overtime. Dont have miscommunications 

Edited December 5, 2023 by balln

[Ga boy]

2 hours ago, finn said:

You're articulating a position most NFL fans agree with, so I'm not going to dismiss you. But I disagree. Your premise if that the quality of a given QB is determined mostly, if not exclusively, by the number of championships he wins. I get it: winners win. But put Mahomes on a lousy team with lousy coaches. Does he win championships? No. Does that mean that exactly the same player is suddenly no longer the best? In your calculus, yes, it does. It follows, then, that Mahomes is in large part a product of the organization around him. 

 

You could argue that a godlike figure like Mahomes would lift the others around him, so he would win championships even with the Giants O-line, the Bears' receivers, the Cardinals defense, and Rex Ryan as head coach. I don't buy it. A stellar talent could take a B or B+ team all the way, sure, just as an average QB on an otherwise excellent team could win Super Bowls. But you can't judge a QB with a single metric, even championships. That's not a trump card, no matter how triumphantly you play it. 

 

Also, to say Allen doesn't play the same sport as Mahomes is, well, are you trying to be provocative? Let me be provocative right back: Allen is better than Mahomes. He's objectively bigger, faster, stronger, and more athletic, and he does more with less. The only counter-argument you have is the championships point, which, again, is just one criteria that's outweighed, I think, by the impact of the respective head coaches alone. The 13-seconds game is a perfect illustration.

 

No, give me a choice of QBs to build a team around, and I'd take Allen every time.  

 

 

Finn:  I agree that JA17 is the best QB in a decade, and Mahomes has benefited from better systems/support/coach.  I liken it to Montana and Marino.  In my book, Marino was the real GOAT … smart, fierce, and oh what an arm.  

[finn]

3 hours ago, Ga boy said:

Finn:  I agree that JA17 is the best QB in a decade, and Mahomes has benefited from better systems/support/coach.  I liken it to Montana and Marino.  In my book, Marino was the real GOAT … smart, fierce, and oh what an arm.  

Imagine if it was Marino throwing to Jerry Rice. Filthy. 

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[balln]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Hard to interpret. EPA is too abstract for me. Eye test doesn’t match 

 

BUT this is the best evidence I’ve seen that Allen is mvp for his team. And that our coaches are the problem. Or injuries. Or penalties.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

13 hours ago, finn said:

You're articulating a position most NFL fans agree with, so I'm not going to dismiss you. But I disagree. Your premise if that the quality of a given QB is determined mostly, if not exclusively, by the number of championships he wins. I get it: winners win. But put Mahomes on a lousy team with lousy coaches. Does he win championships? No. Does that mean that exactly the same player is suddenly no longer the best? In your calculus, yes, it does. It follows, then, that Mahomes is in large part a product of the organization around him. 

 

You could argue that a godlike figure like Mahomes would lift the others around him, so he would win championships even with the Giants O-line, the Bears' receivers, the Cardinals defense, and Rex Ryan as head coach. I don't buy it. A stellar talent could take a B or B+ team all the way, sure, just as an average QB on an otherwise excellent team could win Super Bowls. But you can't judge a QB with a single metric, even championships. That's not a trump card, no matter how triumphantly you play it. 

 

Also, to say Allen doesn't play the same sport as Mahomes is, well, are you trying to be provocative? Let me be provocative right back: Allen is better than Mahomes. He's objectively bigger, faster, stronger, and more athletic, and he does more with less. The only counter-argument you have is the championships point, which, again, is just one criteria that's outweighed, I think, by the impact of the respective head coaches alone. The 13-seconds game is a perfect illustration.

 

No, give me a choice of QBs to build a team around, and I'd take Allen every time.  

 

 

And all you have to do is look at the numbers that Brown & Beasley put up in 2019 & 2020 to see that Allen clearly elevates the performance of those around him.

 

 

[finn]

14 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

And all you have to do is look at the numbers that Brown & Beasley put up in 2019 & 2020 to see that Allen clearly elevates the performance of those around him.

 

 

Yes, those are two examples of what I mean by Allen's "doing more with less." Another example is Gabe Davis, whom Allen hits right in the hands and in stride most of the time. Davis' catch rate is still abysmal, but it's probably as good as it will ever be, unless Allen walks down the field and gently hands the ball to him.