THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Cruisin'

[Shaw66]

Not a lot to say about the Bills rolling over the Commanders.  Just a solid, dominant performance.  Here are a few reactions:

 

I would have liked a couple more touchdowns and a couple fewer field goals. 

 

I have no doubt Bernard has plenty of areas where improvement is required, but his football instincts/quick-twitch playmaking style is a refreshing change from Edmunds’ style.

 

Benford had a few problems, but I like how he plays, too.

 

Hard not to look good with five takeaways and holding the Commanders to 1 out of 9 on third down.  That’s a pretty good formula. 

 

I’m loving the relentless pass rush.  McDermott has been saying for years that he needed that kind of front four, and these guys are scintillating.  No idea if yesterday was just a game, or a serious breakthrough, but Epenesa showed up.

 

Also loving the running back rotation.  Those three guys just keep moving the ball.  Seems like every time the defense slows one guy, another comes in and makes a play.

 

Offensive line was solid again protecting Josh. 

 

Another day of the new-style Josh.  Most of the time, he just took the easy throw.  20-32 isn’t good enough for my taste, but he made it work.  High completion percentage doesn’t make a team good, but it’s an indicator of a style of play that leads to success.  It means the chains are moving. 

 

Early in the game we saw a perfect example of the old-style Josh hurting team performance.  On the first drive, 1st and ten on the Commanders’ 19 yard line, Josh threw into a crowd to Knox in the endzone.  It was one of those throws we’ve seen often from Josh, where he fires into a tight window and his receiver makes the catch.   The play didn’t quite connect.   Cook for one yard on second down, incompletion on third down.  Field goal. 

 

Josh has to stop making that first-down throw.  Third and ten, okay, but not on first down.  Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less.  I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere.  There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space.  Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler.  From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10.  

 

The Bills offense is good enough to keep taking the easy play.   It moves the ball and it reduces turnovers.   Eventually, defenses will adjust to try stop the relentless ball movement, and when that happens, Josh will hit someone on the run, as he hit Davis against the Commanders. 

 

Solid performance.

 

Tua won’t throw four interceptions.  But he might get sacked nine times!

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

[HOUSE]

There is no excuse for giving up a late FG

Some players on Defense need to sit next week 

[Logic]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Not a lot to say about the Bills rolling over the Commanders.  Just a solid, dominant performance.  Here are a few reactions:

 

I would have liked a couple more touchdowns and a couple fewer field goals. 

 

I have no doubt Bernard has plenty of areas where improvement is required, but his football instincts/quick-twitch playmaking style is a refreshing change from Edmunds’ style.

 

Benford had a few problems, but I like how he plays, too.

 

Hard not to look good with five takeaways and holding the Commanders to 1 out of 9 on third down.  That’s a pretty good formula. 

 

I’m loving the relentless pass rush.  McDermott has been saying for years that he needed that kind of front four, and these guys are scintillating.  No idea if yesterday was just a game, or a serious breakthrough, but Epenesa showed up.

 

Also loving the running back rotation.  Those three guys just keep moving the ball.  Seems like every time the defense slows one guy, another comes in and makes a play.

 

Offensive line was solid again protecting Josh. 

 

Another day of the new-style Josh.  Most of the time, he just took the easy throw.  20-32 isn’t good enough for my taste, but he made it work.  High completion percentage doesn’t make a team good, but it’s an indicator of a style of play that leads to success.  It means the chains are moving. 

 

Early in the game we saw a perfect example of the old-style Josh hurting team performance.  On the first drive, 1st and ten on the Commanders’ 19 yard line, Josh threw into a crowd to Knox in the endzone.  It was one of those throws we’ve seen often from Josh, where he fires into a tight window and his receiver makes the catch.   The play didn’t quite connect.   Cook for one yard on second down, incompletion on third down.  Field goal. 

 

Josh has to stop making that first-down throw.  Third and ten, okay, but not on first down.  Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less.  I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere.  There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space.  Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler.  From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10.  

 

The Bills offense is good enough to keep taking the easy play.   It moves the ball and it reduces turnovers.   Eventually, defenses will adjust to try stop the relentless ball movement, and when that happens, Josh will hit someone on the run, as he hit Davis against the Commanders. 

 

Solid performance.

 

Tua won’t throw four interceptions.  But he might get sacked nine times!

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

Liar.

 

[Chandler#81]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Not a lot to say about the Bills rolling over the Commanders.  Just a solid, dominant performance.  Here are a few reactions:

 

I would have liked a couple more touchdowns and a couple fewer field goals. 

 

I have no doubt Bernard has plenty of areas where improvement is required, but his football instincts/quick-twitch playmaking style is a refreshing change from Edmunds’ style.

 

Benford had a few problems, but I like how he plays, too.

 

Hard not to look good with five takeaways and holding the Commanders to 1 out of 9 on third down.  That’s a pretty good formula. 

 

I’m loving the relentless pass rush.  McDermott has been saying for years that he needed that kind of front four, and these guys are scintillating.  No idea if yesterday was just a game, or a serious breakthrough, but Epenesa showed up.

 

Also loving the running back rotation.  Those three guys just keep moving the ball.  Seems like every time the defense slows one guy, another comes in and makes a play.

 

Offensive line was solid again protecting Josh. 

 

Another day of the new-style Josh.  Most of the time, he just took the easy throw.  20-32 isn’t good enough for my taste, but he made it work.  High completion percentage doesn’t make a team good, but it’s an indicator of a style of play that leads to success.  It means the chains are moving. 

 

Early in the game we saw a perfect example of the old-style Josh hurting team performance.  On the first drive, 1st and ten on the Commanders’ 19 yard line, Josh threw into a crowd to Knox in the endzone.  It was one of those throws we’ve seen often from Josh, where he fires into a tight window and his receiver makes the catch.   The play didn’t quite connect.   Cook for one yard on second down, incompletion on third down.  Field goal. 

 

Josh has to stop making that first-down throw.  Third and ten, okay, but not on first down.  Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less.  I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere.  There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space.  Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler.  From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10.  

 

The Bills offense is good enough to keep taking the easy play.   It moves the ball and it reduces turnovers.   Eventually, defenses will adjust to try stop the relentless ball movement, and when that happens, Josh will hit someone on the run, as he hit Davis against the Commanders. 

 

Solid performance.

 

Tua won’t throw four interceptions.  But he might get sacked nine times!

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

“Too many defenders around Know” AND he’s not very dependable..

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

Liar.

 

For me, that's not a lot.  

 

Actually, what I meant is that there's not a lot to say that wasn't apparent to any Bills fan who watched.  

Edited September 25, 2023 by Shaw66

[scuba guy]

Thanks as always shaw for your work.

 

Always remember there are going to be complainers for every week. 

 

But over all if the defense gets a little better every week an the offense starts to get into a Grove late in the year just b efore the playoffs the 3 headed monster will be hard to stop.

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

For me, that's not a lot.  

 

Actually, what I meant is that there's not a lot to say that wasn't apparent to any Bills fan who watched.  

I do actually want to contribute to the discussion here, because you brought up a point that I think is interesting.

First you said that there were too many field goals and not enough touchdowns. Later you said that you didn't like Josh's shot to the end zone to Knox. I was thinking that maybe those two thoughts are at odds with each other.

Some of what is leading to the lack of touchdowns right now is the new emphasis on playing smart, taking the short gains and checkdowns, and Josh's reads going short to long rather than long to short on a lot of plays. On the Knox play, he eschewed that philosophy and went for the throat. It was a bad but understandable drop in the rain that leads us to the conclusion that it wasn't a great decision. Better hands by Knox there and we're all lauding that play this morning.

My suspicion is that the Bills offense -- and Josh Allen, in particular -- is trying to find the balance right now between playing smart and taking risks. In 2020 and 2021, Josh seemed to have struck that balance quite well. For much of 2022, he was out of balance. Trying to play hero ball too often, not being smart often enough. This season, after the wakeup call of week one, I think he's trying to re-discover the balance. Maybe it's the transition to a new playcaller, new players around him, new personnel sets, whatever...the end effect is that the training wheels have been re-applied, and Josh is slowly shedding them a little bit at a time as he regains confidence and re-discovers balance.

My hope is that Josh continues to start out games by playing smart and taking short gains, building a little confidence and rhythm, and then turning into Killer Josh. That's when he's at his best to me. When he's taking small profits and being patient and frustrating the defense. Then, the MOMENT they start to creep down to cover the short stuff, he hits Gabe long for a score, or throws a rope to Knox in the end zone in a keyhole.

I think we're seeing a necessary growth period and re-discovery of balance for Josh Allen and the Bills offense, but it's gonna take a little time for this offense to hit its full stride. Even so, they converted 9 of 15 3rd downs yesterday and scored 30 points. Not bad for a "training wheels" day.

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Early in the game we saw a perfect example of the old-style Josh hurting team performance.  On the first drive, 1st and ten on the Commanders’ 19 yard line, Josh threw into a crowd to Knox in the endzone.  It was one of those throws we’ve seen often from Josh, where he fires into a tight window and his receiver makes the catch.   The play didn’t quite connect.   Cook for one yard on second down, incompletion on third down.  Field goal. 

 

Josh has to stop making that first-down throw.  Third and ten, okay, but not on first down.  Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less.  I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere.  There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space.  Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler.  From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10.  

 

The Bills offense is good enough to keep taking the easy play.   It moves the ball and it reduces turnovers.   Eventually, defenses will adjust to try stop the relentless ball movement, and when that happens, Josh will hit someone on the run, as he hit Davis against the Commanders.

 

This.

 

I don't know how Josh is being coached.  I know Dorsey is more aggressive.  He may be coaching Josh "take a shot on 1st down if you see one". 

Then the problem is what Josh perceives as a shot, and what other teams defenses perceive as Josh's known pattern when taking a shot, which is to focus on Knox and Davis in end zone.  Because you're right, if there are 3 or 4 guys around Knox (or Davis last week), that means someone else has much less attention.  I know Josh trusts those guys the most, but he's got to do whatever he needs to do to get over that.

We can not afford to settle for FG or TOD against the top offensive teams.

[NewEra]

Great post, thanks.  I agree with everything you said….

 

except Tua getting sacked 9 times.  101 pass attempts he’s been sacked once.  Their offense gets the ball out of his hand so quickly, I don’t think it’s possible to sack him more than 2-3 times unless McD can put together the perfect coverages and take away their looks in the first 2 seconds.   Gonna be tough, but maybe McD is the man for the job.  He’s been up to the task so far 

 

 

[Special K]

12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Great post, thanks.  I agree with everything you said….

 

except Tua getting sacked 9 times.  101 pass attempts he’s been sacked once.  Their offense gets the ball out of his hand so quickly, I don’t think it’s possible to sack him more than 2-3 times unless McD can put together the perfect coverages and take away their looks in the first 2 seconds.   Gonna be tough, but maybe McD is the man for the job.  He’s been up to the task so far 

 

 

 

McD’s D seems to be more aggressive and plays with more of an edge than Frazier’s Defense, IMO.

[Beck Water]

20 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

“Too many defenders around Know” AND he’s not very dependable..

 

That was certainly a deserved reputation for Knox his first two years in the league. 

In 2021, Knox had a catch % of 69% and a moderate drop rate of 5.6%.  2022, improved to 74% and drop rate stayed about the same.  Has he missed making a couple tough catches he could have contested, probably, but not many with that catch %. 

 

Do you have specific recent examples of Knox "not being very dependable" to counter this? He did try to go up and get a pass probably intended for Diggs last week but they were ad-libbing so I can't fault him for that.

 

I got on Gabe Davis last year for "not being very dependable", drops of near 10% and not being able to haul in the contested ball, rightly so IMO.  But to be fair to Gabe, a certain amount of that was Allen throwing to Gabe when he was really well covered and the throw really should have gone somewhere else.

[Punching Bag]

59 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Tua won’t throw four interceptions.  But he might get sacked nine times!

 

You think he can survive 9 sacks?

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

I do actually want to contribute to the discussion here, because you brought up a point that I think is interesting.

First you said that there were too many field goals and not enough touchdowns. Later you said that you didn't like Josh's shot to the end zone to Knox. I was thinking that maybe those two thoughts are at odds with each other.

Some of what is leading to the lack of touchdowns right now is the new emphasis on playing smart, taking the short gains and checkdowns, and Josh's reads going short to long rather than long to short on a lot of plays. On the Knox play, he eschewed that philosophy and went for the throat. It was a bad but understandable drop in the rain that leads us to the conclusion that it wasn't a great decision. Better hands by Knox there and we're all lauding that play this morning.

My suspicion is that the Bills offense -- and Josh Allen, in particular -- is trying to find the balance right now between playing smart and taking risks. In 2020 and 2021, Josh seemed to have struck that balance quite well. For much of 2022, he was out of balance. Trying to play hero ball too often, not being smart often enough. This season, after the wakeup call of week one, I think he's trying to re-discover the balance. Maybe it's the transition to a new playcaller, new players around him, new personnel sets, whatever...the end effect is that the training wheels have been re-applied, and Josh is slowly shedding them a little bit at a time as he regains confidence and re-discovers balance.

My hope is that Josh continues to start out games by playing smart and taking short gains, building a little confidence and rhythm, and then turning into Killer Josh. That's when he's at his best to me. When he's taking small profits and being patient and frustrating the defense. Then, the MOMENT they start to creep down to cover the short stuff, he hits Gabe long for a score, or throws a rope to Knox in the end zone in a keyhole.

I think we're seeing a necessary growth period and re-discovery of balance for Josh Allen and the Bills offense, but it's gonna take a little time for this offense to hit its full stride. Even so, they converted 9 of 15 3rd downs yesterday and scored 30 points. Not bad for a "training wheels" day.

I agree with this, but I view it a little differently.   I think it's less about balance, or at least it SHOULD be less about balance, and more about taking the easy play every time.   And I definitely include the TD to Davis in the easy-play category.  For Josh, that was a high-percentage throw - single coverage, a step on the defender, and Josh can put it where it needs to be.  

 

Lately I've been saying the Bills should do what the 49ers do, which is to run their offense to get the ball in the hands of their skill players, over and over, and let them make plays.   Purdy chooses the easy play, over and over, and he doesn't try to fit the ball into tight windows.  He doesn't because he isn't that skilled, but the fact that Josh is more skilled doesn't mean he should be taking the higher risk throw.   That's why I raised the throw to Knox.   The way the offense works best is to increase the number of plays where your skill players have the ball.  Just keep giving them the ball until you score.   The problem with the throw to Knox was that relative to wherever the five-yard gain was (and I'm sure it was there somewhere), it was low percentage play, and choosing the low percentage play meant that the Bills only had two plays left to score a touchdown, instead of likely having five plays to score a touchdown.  For example, with 15 seconds left in the game, and needing a touchdown from the 19, one reason that situation is desperate is that you only two or three more plays.  You'd much rather five.   Well, Josh was in a position to have five plays to make a touchdown, but he bet that opportunity on getting it all on one play.  Fortunately, he didn't throw an interception, which is the possibility with a throw like that, but he also made it much less likely that he had only two more plays before they kicked the field goal.  

 

So, I don't think it's a question of balancing.   I think it's a question of analytics.   If you could calculate (and I think the Bills HAVE calculated) the likelihood of getting a touchdown by throwing that pass and compare it to the likelihood of getting a touchdown by checking down, I think we'd see that checking down is just the smarter play, because it makes it much more likely that you'll have up to five more plays to score.  

 

As I said, I think that the advantage that Allen gives the Bills is that his special talents mean that some throws are high probability completions for him and lower probability for most other QBs.  That means that there are throws that are lower risk for him than for other QBs.  But that doesn't mean that he should gamble on some throws that are higher risk, lower probability even for him.   He should be taking easy throws all the time; it's just that more throws are easy for him than for most QBs.  

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

McD’s D seems to be more aggressive and plays with more of an edge than Frazier’s Defense, IMO.

It does seem that way to me too, but in what way?  We’re blitzing less than any team in the league (yet leading in sacks). At times he’s dropping back some DEs into coverage and bringing Bernard or Milano to take their rush spot.  In general, it looks like Bernard has been playing an attacking style, trusting his instincts and being decisive, replacing the exact opposite in edmunds.  
 

I think a lot of it has to do with confusing the QBs with different coverages (and playing vs bad OL’s), but others could probably be more descriptive in how we’re getting it done. 

 

The addition of Floyd has had a lot to do with it as well.  
 

overall…..I’m very pleased with our D and mcdermott calling the plays.  We seem to be playing very fast.  But also….Zach Wilson, Slimmy G and Sam Howell.   Sunday will tell us a lot.  I’m not so much worried about them going over the top as I am breaking screens and runs for huge gains and TDs

[Beck Water]

24 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Great post, thanks.  I agree with everything you said….

 

except Tua getting sacked 9 times.  101 pass attempts he’s been sacked once.  Their offense gets the ball out of his hand so quickly, I don’t think it’s possible to sack him more than 2-3 times unless McD can put together the perfect coverages and take away their looks in the first 2 seconds.   Gonna be tough, but maybe McD is the man for the job.  He’s been up to the task so far 

 

 

 

We managed 1 sack and 3 QB hits on 18 pass attempts during our first meeting (the Miami Melting-Hot game) and 2 sacks and 4 QB hits on 30 pass attempts during our second meeting last season.

So I agree with you that Tua getting sacked 9 times is unlikely.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

You think he can survive 9 sacks?

 

I think it's a moot point.

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It does seem that way to me too, but in what way?  We’re blitzing less than any team in the league (yet leading in sacks). At times he’s dropping back some DEs into coverage and bringing Bernard or Milano to take their rush spot.  In general, it looks like Bernard has been playing an attacking style, trusting his instincts and being decisive, replacing the exact opposite in edmunds.  
 

I think a lot of it has to do with confusing the QBs with different coverages (and playing vs bad OL’s), but others could probably be more descriptive in how we’re getting it done. 

 

The addition of Floyd has had a lot to do with it as well.  
 

overall…..I’m very pleased with our D and mcdermott calling the plays.  We seem to be playing very fast.  But also….Zach Wilson, Slimmy G and Sam Howell.   Sunday will tell us a lot.  I’m not so much worried about them going over the top as I am breaking screens and runs for huge gains and TDs

 

I'm not good on the "descriptive" part.

McD's preferred style of defense relies a lot upon interior pressure from the DTs which has to be aggressive to make the QB uncomfortable and give him no pocket to step into, but not "too aggressive" in penetration so as maintain gap integrity vs. the run game.   He likes to threaten the A gap or double A gap blitz then drop back - but they come just often enough to make the OL think about it.

 

It requires a special mindset on the part of the DTs.  They can't be too focused on personal stats or they penetrate too far too fast (Phillips in 2019) and we lose run contain.

 

I could be wrong but it does seem to me that McDermott is allowing the DTs to be more aggressive and trusting the back end of the D to handle the run fits.

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not good on the "descriptive" part.

McD's preferred style of defense relies a lot upon interior pressure from the DTs which has to be aggressive to make the QB uncomfortable and give him no pocket to step into, but not "too aggressive" in penetration so as maintain gap integrity vs. the run game.   He likes to threaten the A gap or double A gap blitz then drop back - but they come just often enough to make the OL think about it.

 

It requires a special mindset on the part of the DTs.  They can't be too focused on personal stats or they penetrate too far too fast (Phillips in 2019) and we lose run contain.

 

I could be wrong but it does seem to me that McDermott is allowing the DTs to be more aggressive and trusting the back end of the D to handle the run fits.

Well done, thanks.  Discipline, discipline and more discipline.  I’ve noticed that from our DL this year compared to last as well.  The DTs have really been staying in their lanes for the most part and when they don’t, a DE is usually there to clean it up. 
 

Confusing the OL is a key for sure.  
 

edit:  rewatching some of the defensive highlight, we rushed Milano or Bernard and dropped 50, 57 and 56 on several occasions.  It’s so nice having Bernard in there instead of the robotic edmunds and his terrible pass rush. 
 

43 has been a revelation. And we must give a lot of credit to Mcdermott and Babich. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by NewEra

[Logic]

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with this, but I view it a little differently.   I think it's less about balance, or at least it SHOULD be less about balance, and more about taking the easy play every time.   And I definitely include the TD to Davis in the easy-play category.  For Josh, that was a high-percentage throw - single coverage, a step on the defender, and Josh can put it where it needs to be.  

 

Lately I've been saying the Bills should do what the 49ers do, which is to run their offense to get the ball in the hands of their skill players, over and over, and let them make plays.   Purdy chooses the easy play, over and over, and he doesn't try to fit the ball into tight windows.  He doesn't because he isn't that skilled, but the fact that Josh is more skilled doesn't mean he should be taking the higher risk throw.   That's why I raised the throw to Knox.   The way the offense works best is to increase the number of plays where your skill players have the ball.  Just keep giving them the ball until you score.   The problem with the throw to Knox was that relative to wherever the five-yard gain was (and I'm sure it was there somewhere), it was low percentage play, and choosing the low percentage play meant that the Bills only had two plays left to score a touchdown, instead of likely having five plays to score a touchdown.  For example, with 15 seconds left in the game, and needing a touchdown from the 19, one reason that situation is desperate is that you only two or three more plays.  You'd much rather five.   Well, Josh was in a position to have five plays to make a touchdown, but he bet that opportunity on getting it all on one play.  Fortunately, he didn't throw an interception, which is the possibility with a throw like that, but he also made it much less likely that he had only two more plays before they kicked the field goal.  

 

So, I don't think it's a question of balancing.   I think it's a question of analytics.   If you could calculate (and I think the Bills HAVE calculated) the likelihood of getting a touchdown by throwing that pass and compare it to the likelihood of getting a touchdown by checking down, I think we'd see that checking down is just the smarter play, because it makes it much more likely that you'll have up to five more plays to score.  

 

As I said, I think that the advantage that Allen gives the Bills is that his special talents mean that some throws are high probability completions for him and lower probability for most other QBs.  That means that there are throws that are lower risk for him than for other QBs.  But that doesn't mean that he should gamble on some throws that are higher risk, lower probability even for him.   He should be taking easy throws all the time; it's just that more throws are easy for him than for most QBs.  

I hear ya.

The problem is, I think that as long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, you're S.O.L. on this desire.

I don't think "always take the easy throw" is in his DNA. If it IS in there, it's buried by much stronger strands of "I'm gonna throw this insane tight window throw into triple coverage" DNA. 

I just personally don't think Josh will EVER be an "always take the easy throw" guy. I don't think he's wired that way. I think he's Brett Favre until the day he hangs up his cleats.

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, Logic said:

I hear ya.

The problem is, I think that as long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, you're S.O.L. on this desire.

I don't think "always take the easy throw" is in his DNA. If it IS in there, it's buried by much stronger strands of "I'm gonna throw this insane tight window throw into triple coverage" DNA. 

I just personally don't think Josh will EVER be an "always take the easy throw" guy. I don't think he's wired that way. I think he's Brett Favre until the day he hangs up his cleats.

Ha!  That's very interesting.   I do think he will learn to take the easy throw.   That's why I've always said that Josh is John Elway.  

 

Elway was just physically better most of the guys on the field - big and strong and fast and could throw.   What made him almost unique as a QB he just said, "look, just give me the ball and I'll make it happen."   He was a baseball phenom who could dominate football games.  He was, in other words, a lot like Josh.  All things considered, Josh is just a better athlete than everyone.  Big enough to at least stand eye-to-eye with a lineman and say, "Okay, let's do.  You and me."  Fast enough to say to linebackers, "Sorry, you can't take that angle with me."  With an arm that says, "Oh, yes, I CAN make that throw."  

 

Elway learned that even though he was THAT guy, he couldn't win games that weren't managed properly.   He learned that there always would be times in the season when the game would demand that Elway be Elway, even when the game is managed properly.   

 

Think about the touchdown to Davis.  Allen had been playing the game pretty much on script, take the easy throw, etc.  Then, suddenly, Dorsey called a play and Davis could see the opportunity and knew how to run the route, and Josh knew, too, and that's when Josh being Josh took over and one of the most beautifully thrown passes you've ever seen dropped right into where it was supposed to be.  That throw is makes Josh different.  And the fact that he can do pretty much everything else that you might need on a football field.  

 

McDermott and Josh are too smart not to see that.  McDermott can show Josh film of Favre, show him actual plays where Josh can see that Favre going off script made his team less effective and cost his team games.  And film of Brady and show him that executing the whole thing with your brain, you can be great with just average physical skills.   McDermott is challenging Allen to be the playmaker he is, to be Favre, and still play with his considerable native intelligence, or to be Brady, too.   I think that's what Elway did.  

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Not a lot to say about the Bills rolling over the Commanders.  Just a solid, dominant performance.  Here are a few reactions:

 

I would have liked a couple more touchdowns and a couple fewer field goals. 

 

I have no doubt Bernard has plenty of areas where improvement is required, but his football instincts/quick-twitch playmaking style is a refreshing change from Edmunds’ style.

 

Benford had a few problems, but I like how he plays, too.

 

Hard not to look good with five takeaways and holding the Commanders to 1 out of 9 on third down.  That’s a pretty good formula. 

 

I’m loving the relentless pass rush.  McDermott has been saying for years that he needed that kind of front four, and these guys are scintillating.  No idea if yesterday was just a game, or a serious breakthrough, but Epenesa showed up.

 

Also loving the running back rotation.  Those three guys just keep moving the ball.  Seems like every time the defense slows one guy, another comes in and makes a play.

 

Offensive line was solid again protecting Josh. 

 

Another day of the new-style Josh.  Most of the time, he just took the easy throw.  20-32 isn’t good enough for my taste, but he made it work.  High completion percentage doesn’t make a team good, but it’s an indicator of a style of play that leads to success.  It means the chains are moving. 

 

Early in the game we saw a perfect example of the old-style Josh hurting team performance.  On the first drive, 1st and ten on the Commanders’ 19 yard line, Josh threw into a crowd to Knox in the endzone.  It was one of those throws we’ve seen often from Josh, where he fires into a tight window and his receiver makes the catch.   The play didn’t quite connect.   Cook for one yard on second down, incompletion on third down.  Field goal. 

 

Josh has to stop making that first-down throw.  Third and ten, okay, but not on first down.  Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less.  I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere.  There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space.  Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler.  From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10.  

 

The Bills offense is good enough to keep taking the easy play.   It moves the ball and it reduces turnovers.   Eventually, defenses will adjust to try stop the relentless ball movement, and when that happens, Josh will hit someone on the run, as he hit Davis against the Commanders. 

 

Solid performance.

 

Tua won’t throw four interceptions.  But he might get sacked nine times!

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

I liked your review as usual.  My only quibble would be on the Allen shot to Knox in the end zone.  I think it was a great call and Allen made the right decision and he fit the ball into a tight space as only Allen and 1 or 2 other QB's in the NFL can do.  It was absolutely the right amount of aggression on 1st down at the 19 and it should have resulted in a TD.

 

Not catching that ball is what keeps Knox, who is a very good TE, from being elite.  If he starts catching those more regularly and/or Kincaid can make that type of catch then the Bills will be seeing elite level TE play.  That will make our offense even harder to stop, particularly in the Red Zone.

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

That was certainly a deserved reputation for Knox his first two years in the league. 

In 2021, Knox had a catch % of 69% and a moderate drop rate of 5.6%.  2022, improved to 74% and drop rate stayed about the same.  Has he missed making a couple tough catches he could have contested, probably, but not many with that catch %. 

 

Do you have specific recent examples of Knox "not being very dependable" to counter this? He did try to go up and get a pass probably intended for Diggs last week but they were ad-libbing so I can't fault him for that.

 

I got on Gabe Davis last year for "not being very dependable", drops of near 10% and not being able to haul in the contested ball, rightly so IMO.  But to be fair to Gabe, a certain amount of that was Allen throwing to Gabe when he was really well covered and the throw really should have gone somewhere else.

For me, I think of him as not dependable because just doesn't seem to be a smooth (ah, there's that word, I get it know) pass catchers.  What makes him good is that he's athletic enough to make tough catches - turns his body pretty well, is a pretty good hands catcher, survives the ground pretty well, AND he's a big tough guy.  Not the biggest and not the toughest, but he can mix it up.  But he's all like Diggs, seems to be able always to be able to get his body in position to make a play AND still have the focus to catch the ball like he's playing the backyard.  

 

The point of the comment was that it was Knox and not a pass catcher like Diggs, because if it's Diggs it's a higher probability throw.   I don't think that's a knock on Knox.  That's just recognizing that the guy's collection of skills make him valuable on the field even if catching everything thrown at him is not his greatest talent.  

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I hear ya.

The problem is, I think that as long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, you're S.O.L. on this desire.

I don't think "always take the easy throw" is in his DNA. If it IS in there, it's buried by much stronger strands of "I'm gonna throw this insane tight window throw into triple coverage" DNA. 

I just personally don't think Josh will EVER be an "always take the easy throw" guy. I don't think he's wired that way. I think he's Brett Favre until the day he hangs up his cleats.

But this is also what makes Allen special.  More importantly Allen's chances of connecting on those harder throws are better then almost every other QB.  They are not as low a probability of being completed as if it was Danial Jones or Kurt Cousins taking them.  Like most things in life moderation is the place to be and for Allen that means not taking the easy throws all the time.

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I liked your review as usual.  My only quibble would be on the Allen shot to Knox in the end zone.  I think it was a great call and Allen made the right decision and he fit the ball into a tight space as only Allen and 1 or 2 other QB's in the NFL can do.  It was absolutely the right amount of aggression on 1st down at the 19 and it should have resulted in a TD.

 

Not catching that ball is what keeps Knox, who is a very good TE, from being elite.  If he starts catching those more regularly and/or Kincaid can make that type of catch then the Bills will be seeing elite level TE play.  That will make our offense even harder to stop, particularly in the Red Zone.

 

 

 

 

It might be the right amount of aggression if you're throwing to a really good pass catcher, like Diggs.   When you're throwing to Davis, you know what you're getting in pass catching.  When you're throwing to Knox you what you're getting.   With different receivers, you have a different probability of success.   That's I keep saying the easy throw doesn't just mean check downs.  The TD to Davis was an easy throw, because with single man coverage, Davis running free behind it, it's an easy throw.   The throw to Knox was not an easy throw - he had defenders around him, and it was Knox catching.   If it's Diggs, it might be the right throw.  If it's Knox, find a way to get 5 or 6 yards, and maybe break a tackle.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, HOUSE said:

There is no excuse for giving up a late FG

Some players on Defense need to sit next week 

Yeah Dammit! 

The Key to this week is, Jam Hill at the LOS and have someone over the top as well while sending all sorts of junk blitz wise at their OL. Hit Tua often and he is going to fold.  Will they get some numbers, yes it is what it is. We just have to keep those numbers and scores down.

 

Miami is going to run a Cover 2 high shell, if they don't they are stupid. When they do, a death by 1000 cuts is again on the menu. When they go man and single high, make them pay by QB  run or Deeper balls.

[stuvian]

There is an intensity and attention to detail that wasn't there last year. We are finishing tackles and getting consistent sacks and turnovers without Von Miller. We are not having negative yardage offensive plays like before. Josh is intelligently sliding on run plays. We seem to have enough fresh legs at RB that should reduce wear on Josh and force opposing teams to account for our ground game. I like how we're playing heading into Miami.

[Beck Water]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

For me, I think of him as not dependable because just doesn't seem to be a smooth (ah, there's that word, I get it know) pass catchers.  What makes him good is that he's athletic enough to make tough catches - turns his body pretty well, is a pretty good hands catcher, survives the ground pretty well, AND he's a big tough guy.  Not the biggest and not the toughest, but he can mix it up.  But he's all like Diggs, seems to be able always to be able to get his body in position to make a play AND still have the focus to catch the ball like he's playing the backyard.  

 

The point of the comment was that it was Knox and not a pass catcher like Diggs, because if it's Diggs it's a higher probability throw.   I don't think that's a knock on Knox.  That's just recognizing that the guy's collection of skills make him valuable on the field even if catching everything thrown at him is not his greatest talent.  

 

I see your point, but Diggs is subject to different types of interference - he is often held, he can get out-muscled, he will be interfered with to save a TD at the cost of some yards.  Knox had 9 TD to Diggs 10 TD in 2020 because in theory, he should be able to out-muscle and out-jump more DBs. 

 

Of course I agree with you that Diggs is the superior receiver, but with the tighter space in the RZ, in theory bigger should be better.

 

I'd really like to see Kincaid get use in this role because he's smooooth.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Beck Water

[Rubes]

I'm a little surprised more people aren't mentioning our relatively mediocre run defense. Good at times, gives up big chunk plays others. Washington gave up on it too early, because they were doing pretty decent with it against us.

 

If Miami and their resurgent ground game finds that kind of success against us early (and I'm concerned they will), we'll be in trouble.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I do actually want to contribute to the discussion here, because you brought up a point that I think is interesting.

First you said that there were too many field goals and not enough touchdowns. Later you said that you didn't like Josh's shot to the end zone to Knox. I was thinking that maybe those two thoughts are at odds with each other.

Some of what is leading to the lack of touchdowns right now is the new emphasis on playing smart, taking the short gains and checkdowns, and Josh's reads going short to long rather than long to short on a lot of plays. On the Knox play, he eschewed that philosophy and went for the throat. It was a bad but understandable drop in the rain that leads us to the conclusion that it wasn't a great decision. Better hands by Knox there and we're all lauding that play this morning.

My suspicion is that the Bills offense -- and Josh Allen, in particular -- is trying to find the balance right now between playing smart and taking risks. In 2020 and 2021, Josh seemed to have struck that balance quite well. For much of 2022, he was out of balance. Trying to play hero ball too often, not being smart often enough. This season, after the wakeup call of week one, I think he's trying to re-discover the balance. Maybe it's the transition to a new playcaller, new players around him, new personnel sets, whatever...the end effect is that the training wheels have been re-applied, and Josh is slowly shedding them a little bit at a time as he regains confidence and re-discovers balance.

My hope is that Josh continues to start out games by playing smart and taking short gains, building a little confidence and rhythm, and then turning into Killer Josh. That's when he's at his best to me. When he's taking small profits and being patient and frustrating the defense. Then, the MOMENT they start to creep down to cover the short stuff, he hits Gabe long for a score, or throws a rope to Knox in the end zone in a keyhole.

I think we're seeing a necessary growth period and re-discovery of balance for Josh Allen and the Bills offense, but it's gonna take a little time for this offense to hit its full stride. Even so, they converted 9 of 15 3rd downs yesterday and scored 30 points. Not bad for a "training wheels" day.

There will be times in the near future to strike deep or thread the needle. But now it's absolutely critical that Josh continues the course with this shorter passing attack.  I'd rather have 3 points then no points at all on a "forced into double coverage" pass.  I still have serious concerns with Dorsey, but I'm willing to ride him out this season and hope he mixes in more clever plays.

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I see your point, but Diggs is subject to different types of interference - he is often held, he can get out-muscled, he will be interfered with to save a TD at the cost of some yards.  Knox had 9 TD to Diggs 10 TD in 2020 because in theory, he should be able to out-muscle and out-jump more DBs. 

 

Of course I agree with you that Diggs is the superior receiver, but with the tighter space in the RZ, in theory bigger should be better.

 

I'd really like to see Kincaid get use in this role because he's smooooth.

True, but I think when Josh sees Diggs in a small opening, he knows Diggs will make a good play on the ball.   He doesn't know that about Knox.   At the end of the day, athletic ability wins over size, I think.   

 

My real point is I don't think on first down in that situation you want Allen to throw to either of them.  You're just less likely to get a touchdown out of that possession by throwing that pass than by taking a five-yard gain somewhere, because your probability of a first down is better at 2nd and 5 than 2nd and 10.  The first down gets you three more plays.  3rd and goal or 4th and goal if you're going for it, okay, throw that pass.   Before then, if you can get a first down, take what the play gives and try again.  

 

You're trying to score, sure, but the best way to score is to have a lot of chances to score.   If you tell me in advance that my time will, 100% get the offensive rebound, then every shot is a good shot.  Doesn't matter if I'm good or not, I should hoist it up first chance I get, because if I miss my team will get another shot anyway.   Well, in football, there aren't offensive rebounds, but there are first downs, which give your team additional shots, just in a different way.   Take the touchdown if it's there for the taking, but if it isn't a gimme, work on the first down. 

 

I was thinking about Steph Curry.  He is a great half-court shooter, because he's a great shooter and he practices half-court shots.  When it's the middle of the second quarter and he's bringing the ball up court, he doesn't just launch it from half court.  If he does, what does he say to the coach?   "I can make that shot, so it's a good shot."  Coach says, "It's not the best shot."  It's the same with Josh.  Josh's coach says to him, "Yes, Josh, I know you can throw that pass better than anyone else in the league.  We all get it.   That just does not mean that throwing that pass is the best option at this time."  

 

Don't take the relatively low probability throw until there is a reason that high probability throw simply won't help.  

[Shaw66]

30 minutes ago, Rubes said:

I'm a little surprised more people aren't mentioning our relatively mediocre run defense. Good at times, gives up big chunk plays others. Washington gave up on it too early, because they were doing pretty decent with it against us.

 

If Miami and their resurgent ground game finds that kind of success against us early (and I'm concerned they will), we'll be in trouble.

 

I think the running game is what McDermott is willing to give to teams.   It's always been like that with his Bills team.  They get gashed occasionally in the run game.   

 

In this game, McDermott figures stopping the pass is the most important aspect of good defense, and he wants a pass defense that can stop the run as well as possible.   Heck, he plays with a cornerback and two small linebackers.  

 

McDermott doesn't think that the average running team can run effectively enough against his defense to hurt him consistently.  When he plays an especially good running team, he can't muscle up his line, but he tries to adjust the scheme to stop the run.   

 

Every once in a while Washington ripped off a good run, and it made momentarily disappointed in the defense.  Then I told myself that that is what comes with this defense.   You just hope when it happens, you stop it short of Dalvin Cook going the distance.  

 

[Robert Paulson]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Josh has to stop making that first-down throw.  Third and ten, okay, but not on first down.  Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less.  I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere.  There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space.  Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler.  From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10.  

agreed this is like making the first out at 3rd base- no excuse for that 

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

True, but I think when Josh sees Diggs in a small opening, he knows Diggs will make a good play on the ball.   He doesn't know that about Knox.   At the end of the day, athletic ability wins over size, I think.   

 

My real point is I don't think on first down in that situation you want Allen to throw to either of them.  You're just less likely to get a touchdown out of that possession by throwing that pass than by taking a five-yard gain somewhere, because your probability of a first down is better at 2nd and 5 than 2nd and 10.  The first down gets you three more plays.  3rd and goal or 4th and goal if you're going for it, okay, throw that pass.   Before then, if you can get a first down, take what the play gives and try again.  

 

You're trying to score, sure, but the best way to score is to have a lot of chances to score.   If you tell me in advance that my time will, 100% get the offensive rebound, then every shot is a good shot.  Doesn't matter if I'm good or not, I should hoist it up first chance I get, because if I miss my team will get another shot anyway.   Well, in football, there aren't offensive rebounds, but there are first downs, which give your team additional shots, just in a different way.   Take the touchdown if it's there for the taking, but if it isn't a gimme, work on the first down. 

 

I was thinking about Steph Curry.  He is a great half-court shooter, because he's a great shooter and he practices half-court shots.  When it's the middle of the second quarter and he's bringing the ball up court, he doesn't just launch it from half court.  If he does, what does he say to the coach?   "I can make that shot, so it's a good shot."  Coach says, "It's not the best shot."  It's the same with Josh.  Josh's coach says to him, "Yes, Josh, I know you can throw that pass better than anyone else in the league.  We all get it.   That just does not mean that throwing that pass is the best option at this time."  

 

Don't take the relatively low probability throw until there is a reason that high probability throw simply won't help.  

 

Can't disagree with your real point.   I'm a bit unsure if that's on Josh, on Dorsey, or on a hellish amalgam of the two.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Beck Water

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

agreed this is like making the first out at 3rd base- no excuse for that 

that's good analogy.  You'd much rather save the out than gain the base.  Why, because your chances of getting a run out of the inning are better if 100 times in a row you keep the man on second than if you try to stretch it.  

[HappyDays]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Josh has to stop making that first-down throw.  Third and ten, okay, but not on first down.  Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less.  I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere.  There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space.  Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler.  From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10.  

 

What makes you think that? On 2nd down we ran for 1 yard. Even assuming you're correct that a 4 yard checkdown was available (which I am not at all confident of in that condensed area of the field), maybe then it's 3rd and 5 and that's no guarantee. We probably kick the FG anyways.

 

We can't chip away 4 yards at a time into the endzone. The NFL doesn't work that way. It's too much living on the edge. Eventually you need to take your shots and score TDs. First downs are the priority right up until the 20 yard line, then the goal is TD. Obviously that is within reason, you can't throw interceptable balls that close to the endzone. But this was not an interceptable ball. It was a pass into the endzone where only his pass catcher could possibly come down with it. What's the problem there?

 

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Fortunately, he didn't throw an interception, which is the possibility with a throw like that,

 

There was no possibility of an interception there unless the ball took a goofy bounce, which can happen on any play including check downs. You're overexaggerating the difficulty of the throw. Yes there were a couple defenders in the area but Josh correctly recognized the leverage. That's what QBs are reading, leverage not body count. You have your TE with leverage against 2 defenders that both have their back to the QB. That's an easy decision every time. It isn't Josh's fault Knox didn't focus up and look for the ball. You're asking him to play the position differently than even his coaches would want. If you're playing Mahomes and he takes a 4 yard dump off over an endzone shot to a pass catcher with leverage, you're thanking your lucky stars.

 

There's a fine line between smart and conservative. You're leaning too far towards conservative.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by HappyDays

[BringBackFlutie]

11 hours ago, Logic said:

I think he's Brett Favre until the day he hangs up his cleats.

 

...I will strike you. 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Tua won’t throw four interceptions.  But he might get sacked nine times!

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Great analysis as always!!! This almost made me spit out my coffee!!! GO BILLS indeed!!!

[Logic]

10 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

...I will strike you. 

At least search the GIF, sheesh.

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

What makes you think that? On 2nd down we ran for 1 yard. Even assuming you're correct that a 4 yard checkdown was available (which I am not at all confident of in that condensed area of the field), maybe then it's 3rd and 5 and that's no guarantee. We probably kick the FG anyways.

 

We can't chip away 4 yards at a time into the endzone. The NFL doesn't work that way. It's too much living on the edge. Eventually you need to take your shots and score TDs. First downs are the priority right up until the 20 yard line, then the goal is TD. Obviously that is within reason, you can't throw interceptable balls that close to the endzone. But this was not an interceptable ball. It was a pass into the endzone where only his pass catcher could possibly come down with it. What's the problem there?

 

 

There was no possibility of an interception there unless the ball took a goofy bounce, which can happen on any play including check downs. You're overexaggerating the difficulty of the throw. Yes there were a couple defenders in the area but Josh correctly recognized the leverage. That's what QBs are reading, leverage not body count. You have your TE with leverage against 2 defenders that both have their back to the QB. That's an easy decision every time. It isn't Josh's fault Knox didn't focus up and look for the ball. You're asking him to play the position differently than even his coaches would want. If you're playing Mahomes and he takes a 4 yard dump off over an endzone shot to a pass catcher with leverage, you're thanking your lucky stars.

 

There's a fine line between smart and conservative. You're leaning too far towards conservative.

 

Yes, I may be leaning too far to the conservative side.  Wouldn't be the first time. 

 

But you're arguing a bunch of things that (1) I don't agree about, and (2) neither of us actually knows, because we don't have the data.  

 

I would say the probability of completing that pass was around 50%.  And whenever the ball is thrown into a crowd of defenders, there's a chance of interception.  But I admit, I don't have the data. 

 

But I don't think there's any argument that a coach would prefer to be 2nd and five from the 14 rather than second and ten from the 19.  Sure, first downs are tougher to get in the red zone, if you have a good offense, you should be able to get a first down after second and five, and that first down means you have three more plays to try to score the touchdown.  

 

The analytics guys know the probabilities of all of these situations. They know the probability of getting a touchdown from first and ten on the 19 if you throw a pass with a 50% likelihood of it being caught as compared to if you throw a pass with an 80% likelihood, and with the interception probabilities thrown in.   Neither of us knows, but I feel quite confident that the smart play on first down is take the easy throw.