Beane's drafting record...new data

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yes, that's correct.  IMO had Marrone been coaching this team he'd have done the same, perhaps more in the playoffs, than McD.  

 

What you're implying then though, whether you realize it or not, is that the QB wouldn't have mattered in "getting to the playoffs."  

 

Here's the issue you yourself said that had Manuel not started the season for four games, Marrone would have gone to the playoffs.  

 

My position is two-fold;  

 

A.  Put Allen on that team and Marrone does at least what McD's done here, and is more successful in the playoffs.  

 

B.  Put Marrone as the coach of our current team during McD's tenure, and he also doesn't do any worse than McD's done.  

 

We'll never know, so it's not worth debating I suppose.  Again, IMO we're going to find a lot out this season about McD and his staff.  My expectation is that by season's end, he's going to have a substantially smaller number of people in his corner.   

 

As long as Dorsey has the offense in order, I don't think it's going to matter.  

 

 

 

I am REALLY not doing that. Again stop trying to read things that are not in my posts. You do it all the time and it is really ***** frustrating. Just read the words I write. I write for a living. Words are my currency. When I write something I mean the thing I write. I don't mean the thing I didn't write. If I did, I'd write that instead.

 

Of course Quarterback matters in terms of making the playoffs. It matters more than anything else. 

 

I disagree with both your contentions A and B though. Because McDermott is a LOT better as a coach than Marrone. Thst shouldn't even be a controversial view. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by GunnerBill

[warrior9]

21 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

TJ Watt, Hassan Reddick was a 2nd, Matthew Judon was a 5th, Maxx Crosby was a 4th, Alex Highsmith was a 3rd, Brian Burns was pick 16,  Micah Parsons was pick 12

 

Outside of the Bosa's that's pretty much the entire top 10 sack leaders list. I would consider them all "monsters", certainly home run draft picks. None in the top 10 of the draft.

 

 

I thought Watt and Parsons were in top 10, that's on me.

You uh,,, you may have forgot about Miles Garrett.

Both Bosa's ... 

 

Judon didn't get double digit sacks until his 6th year in the league.. not by the team that drafted him .. If you want to wait for 6 years to see a "monster" wait on Groot.

 

Maxx Crosby has had 1 double digit sack year. If you call that a "monster" getting 12.5 sacks in 17 games, fine.. LV also doesn't rotate like we do.

 

Highsmith- 3rd year, 1 double digit sack year.. opposite of TJ Watt. 

 

Burns- 4 years... 1 double digit sack season... these are the "monsters" we're looking to draft? If that's the case... be patient and Groot should have double this year and would be on par with everyone you mentioned outside of the "monters" i was referring to: Bosa's, Watt, Parsons. Garrett

 

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

I thought Watt and Parsons were in top 10, that's on me.

You uh,,, you may have forgot about Miles Garrett.

Both Bosa's ... 

 

Judon didn't get double digit sacks until his 6th year in the league.. not by the team that drafted him .. If you want to wait for 6 years to see a "monster" wait on Groot.

 

Maxx Crosby has had 1 double digit sack year. If you call that a "monster" getting 12.5 sacks in 17 games, fine.. LV also doesn't rotate like we do.

 

Highsmith- 3rd year, 1 double digit sack year.. opposite of TJ Watt. 

 

Burns- 4 years... 1 double digit sack season... these are the "monsters" we're looking to draft? If that's the case... be patient and Groot should have double this year and would be on par with everyone you mentioned outside of the "monters" i was referring to: Bosa's, Watt, Parsons. Garrett

 

 

I didnt forget about Garrett and the Bosas. I assumed that's who you meant when you said "3 monsters" picked in the top of the draft.  Outside of them, everyone else in the Top 10, really Top 15, are all later picks. Most not even 1st rounders.

 

There's plenty of opinion and some consensus on Crosby and Burns being elite.

 

Burns was the original ask when the Bears were trading with Carolina, and they would rather give up DJ Moore.

Crosby is a total package.

 

Check these out:

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2022/12/2/23489327/nfl-best-edge-rushers-maxx-crosby-brian-burns-bengals-raiders

https://www.si.com/nfl/raiders/news/las-vegas-raiders-maxx-crosby-pff-nick-bosa-micah-parsons-myles-garrett

 

I do hope Groot can develop and get there some day. And he has definitely been solid and on the right track. But havent seen him make any of those big splash, game-changing, get a sack at the most important time, plays.

Edited September 8, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[warrior9]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I didnt forget about Garrett and the Bosas. I assumed that's who you meant when you said "3 monsters" picked in the top of the draft.  Outside of them, everyone else in the Top 10, really Top 15, are all later picks. Most not even 1st rounders.

 

There's plenty of opinion and some consensus on Crosby and Burns being elite.

 

Burns was the original ask when the Bears were trading with Carolina, and they would rather give up DJ Moore.

Crosby is a total package.

 

Check these out:

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2022/12/2/23489327/nfl-best-edge-rushers-maxx-crosby-brian-burns-bengals-raiders

https://www.si.com/nfl/raiders/news/las-vegas-raiders-maxx-crosby-pff-nick-bosa-micah-parsons-myles-garrett

 

I do hope Groot can develop and get there some day. And he has definitely been solid and on the right track. But havent seen him make any of those big splash, game-changing, get a sack at the most important time, plays.

I'm not saying they're not elite or going to be.

 

But 1 double digit sack season in 4 years does not make you a monster.. If that's the case, if Groot gets 12 this year, does he fit that category?

[DrDawkinstein]

17 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

I'm not saying they're not elite or going to be.

 

But 1 double digit sack season in 4 years does not make you a monster.. If that's the case, if Groot gets 12 this year, does he fit that category?

 

There is way more to the position than just sacks. I merely started with the most recent leaders list to get an idea of who is there.

 

Burns also lead the league in Pressures. He had a handful of Passes Defended, and TFLs...

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/brian-burns-carolina-panthers-2022-season/amp/

Quote

No player currently under 25 has as many career sacks as his 35.5 through three and a half seasons. In fact, the Carolina defender is now in the top 15 edge rushers of all time in terms of his production before the age of 25 thanks to those 35.5 sacks, putting him above guys like Von Miller and Panthers legend Julius Peppers. Burns has also already matched his previous career high in tackles for a loss with 13 through 12 games.

 

When we start seeing blurbs like that about Groot, I will be very happy.

 

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[jlgarsh]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:42 PM, BuffaloBaumer said:

When was the last time Buffalo drafted a DE that turned into a monster? I really can't remember, and it's odd that a position of such importance never really hits with these guys...strange.

Schobel?

[TheFunPolice]

I go back and forth, but the more I think about the draft the more I see it is one event, not so much the rounds.

 

In other words, there's a few hundred college players. You take turns picking (and make trades). At the end, you want the best bunch possible, however that happens. 

 

If the 5th, 6th, and 7th round guys are great but your 1st and 2nd aren't, who really cares? You want a few impact guys. Of course, the idea is that a different guy picked 1st AND those 5th, 6th, and 7th guys still being good is better, but you just want good players. 

 

There are too many factors that affect a players' success to expect more than a certain success rate in the draft. 

[PBF81]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I am REALLY not doing that. Again stop trying to read things that are not in my posts. You do it all the time and it is really ***** frustrating. Just read the words I write. I write for a living. Words are my currency. When I write something I mean the thing I write. I don't mean the thing I didn't write. If I did, I'd write that instead.

 

To start, I've written for a living as well.  I've actually been recognized for it.  But that's neither here nor there.  To start, relax, this should be fun discussion back and forth, no one should expect widespread agreement on anything that's posted here, or in any forum for that matter other than perhaps car repair.  LOL  

 

Here's the thing, look at what you wrote, the highlighted part that you took issue with, re-read it.  I caught this after your first edit by the way, which I was originally prepared to respond to.  But consider, what did I actually say?   There's a word that I used, deliberately, so as not to approach putting words in your mouth, but you cannot get around that.  Somehow I knew you'd respond in this way. 

 

We're not going to agree on this, ever it seems.  At the same time, it also cannot be proven one way or another.  However, I will say this, twice now, I've tried to engage you regarding particulars on different teams of ours over the past 20+ years, and both times you've abandoned the track.  I can see why, it's obvious to me.  But that's your choice.  

 

So as with you, I meant what I said.  But the reasons why are also perfectly valid, whether you agree with them or not, and no, I don't expect you to.  Why not?  Because if you did, other questions would arise regarding your opinion, which would in fact conflict with it.  And look, I get it, biases enter in.  It's sports after all, where in particular fan interests, hopes, dreams, wishes, etc., all factor in.  Some are better at stripping those off than others.  You largely do, but you still have some pro-McD biases.  Less so with Beane.  

 

 

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Of course Quarterback matters in terms of making the playoffs. It matters more than anything else. 

 

Of course it does, but where you stop short is in how much, to what extent.  You'll stop debating and discussing at that point, as you have with me.  

 

You know what I mean.  And relatedly, you still owe me some "homework" on Gilliam.  And no, I'm not expecting to ever see that, just saying.  Same vein except you seem to be more resigned there.  Otherwise, I'm happy to look it over.  

 

 

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I disagree with both your contentions A and B though.  Because McDermott is a LOT better as a coach than Marrone.  Thst shouldn't even be a controversial view. 

 

Yes, I realize that you disagree on that point, BUT, you've now put words into my mouth.  I never said that Marrone was a good coach or better.  To the contrary, I didn't care for him.  But you lose this argument in that you entirely ingore, among other things such as those touched upon above, when you claim that McD is so much better (aka "a LOT better"), per your statement immediately above, when Marrone posted the exact same record in 2014 as McD did in 2017, yet on the merits that McD made the playoffs (forget that he backed in with help from Cincy for the sake of argument) but entirely verifiably with an incredibly easier record than Marrone had in 2014, and without having had Manuel start a bunch of games, to which you even admitted that had Orton, of all QBs, started that season, Marrone would have also A, gone at least 10-6, but B, made the playoffs that season.  

 

Then, while saying that "Of course Quarterback matters in terms of making the playoffs. It matters more than anything else.", above, you seem to completely ignore that in any comparisons.  

 

You'll avoid direct questions about rosters, strength of schedule comps, how many games a great QB makes in terms of overall W/L (record), etc.  BTW, here's a hint on that, look at Belichick's pre/post-Brady records, which largely agrees with my take on him, namely that without Brady he'd have posted nothing but records on or about .500 or a game, possibly two greater, which is exactly what he's done since.  

 

At the end of the day the notion that McD would be great w/o Allen is an opinion.  We won't find out.  At the same time, I never said that Marrone was better, what I've said is that McD is overrated.  The only two seasons that we have available for a direct comparison are 2017 and 2018, which don't stack up favorably for McD.  But at the same time, and out of the other side of their mouths, his apologists cite the lack of a QB for the issue, while missing that incongruous irony entirely.  Otherwise, 15-17 in two seasons with Taylor and Allen as a rookie, with one "making the playoffs" per the criteria I've outlined below, season, and resulting in a completely unimpressive wild-card round loss.  

 

Levy was overrated as well.  He did nothing significant in KC before coming to Buffalo and being the coach for a group of players that Polian called "special" in terms of NFL rosters over the years.  Even here he posted two losing seasons first, going 40-55 (.421) before Polian's insane levels of talent collected began coming in. Even then, I've often said, that if we had been coached by the coaches that beat Levy in the Super Bowl, Parcells, Gibbs, or Johnson, we'd be owners right now of at least two Lombardis.  Yes, that is my opinion, but based on the above and other factual information, particularly about how those games were coached, on both sides.  

 

Levy, like McD, was what they used to call a player's coach.  You know what I mean.  They don't see to use that term anymore.  Today, they say other things, like "he's created a winning culture," which is soft.  Any team that wins and makes the playoffs has a "winning culture."  That's why it's a "winning culture," because they win.  But when that's the #1 thing that can be said about a coaching regimen, without question it leaves the door wide open for critique as such.  

 

Case in point:  Is McD a good in-game tactician?  I think if you posted a poll you might be suprised at the results.  We do know that it's among the primary complaints about him during the season and on gamedays, particularly in the playoffs.  But in my world, that's far more important than "creating a winning culture" when lots of coaches would "create a winning culture" with Allen as their QB, along with other attributes that he's not noted for, such as in-game adjustments.  He's not bad, but to suggest that it's a strong suit is a real reach.  

 

It also doesn't say much that McD simply can't win playoff games, with a single exception, unless Allen has a great game.  To me those are far more important.  And if that's the case, like us also winning many games because Allen has great games, why wouldn't that apply to other coaches as well?  There's no good answer to that.  

 

Using the biggest argument in favor of McD being a good coach, as "creating a winning culture," is soft.  And IMO, as in my opinion, it's preposterous to consider that if Marrone had Allen, he wouldn't have gone 2-3 games better than he had, if not 4+, and possibly won the division, but if not, for sure made the playoffs as the wild-card with the best record that season, and coupled with the 4th ranked D in the league that season, likely would have at least advanced past the Divisional round. 

 

To suggest otherwise ignores the following facts:  

 

Marrone's 2014 9-7 played a far tougher schedule than McD's 2017 9-7 team.  

 

McD's 9-7 team in 2017 beat only two playoff teams, both 10-6 and the NFC's 6th seed. 

In 7 of 9 wins he beat not one team better than 6-10. 

He lost to four playoff teams and the 9-7 Chargers. 

He went 3-3 in the division, scoring 107 points while allowing 138 points for a per-game average of 18-23.  

He "made the playoffs," in favor of three other 9-7 teams, all with better offenses and defenses, as a result of a meaningless win for a team that managed to pull out of a hat the unlikeliest victory that season.  

 

Marrone's 2014 9-7 team beat three playoff teams that season including New England, Detroit (11-5) and Green Bay (12-4) in a sweep of the NFC North.   

Green Bay was the 2nd playoff seed.  He lost to the 2nd seed in the AFC, and three teams that barely missed the playoffs equally at 9-7, and 8-8 divisional foe Miami.  

He went 4-2 in the division, scoring 158 points while allowing 104 points for a per-game average of 26-17 in those 6 divisional games.  That's 8 PPG greater on O and 6 PPG fewer on D, , for a 2 TD swing.  That's significant.  And, let's not forget that McD had notably a notably easier schedule in 2017, and 2018 for that matter.  

 

All in all, the combined record of teams beaten by McD's Bills was 57-87, and the combined records of teams that his Bills lost to was 69-43.  His team was blown out in 4 of those 7 losses, 53-161, an average of 13-40, and losing those games by 20, 21, 30, and 37.  

 

All in all, the combined record of teams beaten by Marrone's Bills was 70-74, and the combined record of teams that his Bills lost two was 62-50.  Marrone's biggest loss was by 15 points, and his schedule was notably tougher.  

 

Marrone's team had a +54 Point-Differential that season.  343-289  

In his 9 wins, the team scored 231 and allowed 118, an average of 26-13.  In his 7 losses the team scored 112 and allowed 171, an average of 16-24.  

 

McD's team had a -57 Point-Differential that season.  302-359 

In his 9 wins, the team scored 209 and allowed 135, an average of 23-15.  In his 7 losses the team scored 93 and allowed 224, an average of 13-32.  

 

On McD's 2017 schedule, the teams he faced had offenses ranked, the bolded ones were the wins:  

2nd (twice), 4th, 6th, 12th, 13th, 15th, 18th, 23rd, 24th (twice) 26th, 27th, 28th (twice), 30th

Average Offensive ranking of teams played:  17.5 

Average Offensive ranking of teams beaten:  22.1 

 

On McD's 2017 schedule, the teams he faced had defenses ranked:  

3rd, 5th (twice), 8th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 16th, 20th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th (twice), 29th (twice), 30th  

Average Defensive ranking of teams played:  17.1 

Averaged Defensive ranking of teams beaten:  24.9  

 

On Marrone's 2014 schedule, the teams he faced had offenses ranked:  

1st, 2nd, 4th (twice), 11th (twice), 14th, 16th, 17th, 20th, 22nd, 23rd, 27th, 28th (twice), and 31st 

Average Offensive ranking of teams played:  16.2 

Average Offensive ranking of teams beaten:  18.2 

 

On Marrone's 2014 schedule, the teams he faced had defenses ranked:  

2nd, 3rd, 7th, 8th (twice), 9th, 11th, 13th, 14th, 17th, 20th (twice), 24th (twice), 31st, and 32nd  

Average Defensive ranking of teams played:  15.2  

Average Defensive ranking of teams beaten:  15.9  

 

After that, all we can do is compare the two with Allen, and even then, is 2018 went 6-10 where McD's game and offensive scoring metrics got even worse, and worse offensively than all but four of our drought era teams.  2001, 2003, both under Williams, and 2007 and 2009, both under Jauron, ironically also both defensive coaches.  Defensively his 2018 scoring metrics weren't great either, being worse than all but 7 seasons in the drought era, primarily under Williams and Gailey.  

 

Argue as you may, but that's a lot (of facts) to contradict in coming to your conclusion.  But then on top of it to insist that Allen's not by far and away the primary reason why the team is doing anything to me is to be disingenuous.  

 

As often mentioned, at some point it's going to become apparent that McD has been resting on Allen's laurels so to speak.  I suspect that point in time will begin following this season as I suspect that McD's going to have quite fewer apologists in his corner.  If he even approaches putting up the #1 D this season you can count me in as being surprised.  

 

We'll see.  

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

To start, I've written for a living as well.  I've actually been recognized for it.  But that's neither here nor there.  To start, relax, this should be fun discussion back and forth, no one should expect widespread agreement on anything that's posted here, or in any forum for that matter other than perhaps car repair.  LOL  

 

Here's the thing, look at what you wrote, the highlighted part that you took issue with, re-read it.  I caught this after your first edit by the way, which I was originally prepared to respond to.  But consider, what did I actually say?   There's a word that I used, deliberately, so as not to approach putting words in your mouth, but you cannot get around that.  Somehow I knew you'd respond in this way. 

 

We're not going to agree on this, ever it seems.  At the same time, it also cannot be proven one way or another.  However, I will say this, twice now, I've tried to engage you regarding particulars on different teams of ours over the past 20+ years, and both times you've abandoned the track.  I can see why, it's obvious to me.  But that's your choice.  

 

So as with you, I meant what I said.  But the reasons why are also perfectly valid, whether you agree with them or not, and no, I don't expect you to.  Why not?  Because if you did, other questions would arise regarding your opinion, which would in fact conflict with it.  And look, I get it, biases enter in.  It's sports after all, where in particular fan interests, hopes, dreams, wishes, etc., all factor in.  Some are better at stripping those off than others.  You largely do, but you still have some pro-McD biases.  Less so with Beane.  

 

 

 

Of course it does, but where you stop short is in how much, to what extent.  You'll stop debating and discussing at that point, as you have with me.  

 

You know what I mean.  And relatedly, you still owe me some "homework" on Gilliam.  And no, I'm not expecting to ever see that, just saying.  Same vein except you seem to be more resigned there.  Otherwise, I'm happy to look it over.  

 

 

 

Yes, I realize that you disagree on that point, BUT, you've now put words into my mouth.  I never said that Marrone was a good coach or better.  To the contrary, I didn't care for him.  But you lose this argument in that you entirely ingore, among other things such as those touched upon above, when you claim that McD is so much better (aka "a LOT better"), per your statement immediately above, when Marrone posted the exact same record in 2014 as McD did in 2017, yet on the merits that McD made the playoffs (forget that he backed in with help from Cincy for the sake of argument) but entirely verifiably with an incredibly easier record than Marrone had in 2014, and without having had Manuel start a bunch of games, to which you even admitted that had Orton, of all QBs, started that season, Marrone would have also A, gone at least 10-6, but B, made the playoffs that season.  

 

Then, while saying that "Of course Quarterback matters in terms of making the playoffs. It matters more than anything else.", above, you seem to completely ignore that in any comparisons.  

 

You'll avoid direct questions about rosters, strength of schedule comps, how many games a great QB makes in terms of overall W/L (record), etc.  BTW, here's a hint on that, look at Belichick's pre/post-Brady records, which largely agrees with my take on him, namely that without Brady he'd have posted nothing but records on or about .500 or a game, possibly two greater, which is exactly what he's done since.  

 

At the end of the day the notion that McD would be great w/o Allen is an opinion.  We won't find out.  At the same time, I never said that Marrone was better, what I've said is that McD is overrated.  The only two seasons that we have available for a direct comparison are 2017 and 2018, which don't stack up favorably for McD.  But at the same time, and out of the other side of their mouths, his apologists cite the lack of a QB for the issue, while missing that incongruous irony entirely.  Otherwise, 15-17 in two seasons with Taylor and Allen as a rookie, with one "making the playoffs" per the criteria I've outlined below, season, and resulting in a completely unimpressive wild-card round loss.  

 

Levy was overrated as well.  He did nothing significant in KC before coming to Buffalo and being the coach for a group of players that Polian called "special" in terms of NFL rosters over the years.  Even here he posted two losing seasons first, going 40-55 (.421) before Polian's insane levels of talent collected began coming in. Even then, I've often said, that if we had been coached by the coaches that beat Levy in the Super Bowl, Parcells, Gibbs, or Johnson, we'd be owners right now of at least two Lombardis.  Yes, that is my opinion, but based on the above and other factual information, particularly about how those games were coached, on both sides.  

 

Levy, like McD, was what they used to call a player's coach.  You know what I mean.  They don't see to use that term anymore.  Today, they say other things, like "he's created a winning culture," which is soft.  Any team that wins and makes the playoffs has a "winning culture."  That's why it's a "winning culture," because they win.  But when that's the #1 thing that can be said about a coaching regimen, without question it leaves the door wide open for critique as such.  

 

Case in point:  Is McD a good in-game tactician?  I think if you posted a poll you might be suprised at the results.  We do know that it's among the primary complaints about him during the season and on gamedays, particularly in the playoffs.  But in my world, that's far more important than "creating a winning culture" when lots of coaches would "create a winning culture" with Allen as their QB, along with other attributes that he's not noted for, such as in-game adjustments.  He's not bad, but to suggest that it's a strong suit is a real reach.  

 

It also doesn't say much that McD simply can't win playoff games, with a single exception, unless Allen has a great game.  To me those are far more important.  And if that's the case, like us also winning many games because Allen has great games, why wouldn't that apply to other coaches as well?  There's no good answer to that.  

 

Using the biggest argument in favor of McD being a good coach, as "creating a winning culture," is soft.  And IMO, as in my opinion, it's preposterous to consider that if Marrone had Allen, he wouldn't have gone 2-3 games better than he had, if not 4+, and possibly won the division, but if not, for sure made the playoffs as the wild-card with the best record that season, and coupled with the 4th ranked D in the league that season, likely would have at least advanced past the Divisional round. 

 

To suggest otherwise ignores the following facts:  

 

Marrone's 2014 9-7 played a far tougher schedule than McD's 2017 9-7 team.  

 

McD's 9-7 team in 2017 beat only two playoff teams, both 10-6 and the NFC's 6th seed. 

In 7 of 9 wins he beat not one team better than 6-10. 

He lost to four playoff teams and the 9-7 Chargers. 

He went 3-3 in the division, scoring 107 points while allowing 138 points for a per-game average of 18-23.  

He "made the playoffs," in favor of three other 9-7 teams, all with better offenses and defenses, as a result of a meaningless win for a team that managed to pull out of a hat the unlikeliest victory that season.  

 

Marrone's 2014 9-7 team beat three playoff teams that season including New England, Detroit (11-5) and Green Bay (12-4) in a sweep of the NFC North.   

Green Bay was the 2nd playoff seed.  He lost to the 2nd seed in the AFC, and three teams that barely missed the playoffs equally at 9-7, and 8-8 divisional foe Miami.  

He went 4-2 in the division, scoring 158 points while allowing 104 points for a per-game average of 26-17 in those 6 divisional games.  That's 8 PPG greater on O and 6 PPG fewer on D, , for a 2 TD swing.  That's significant.  And, let's not forget that McD had notably a notably easier schedule in 2017, and 2018 for that matter.  

 

All in all, the combined record of teams beaten by McD's Bills was 57-87, and the combined records of teams that his Bills lost to was 69-43.  His team was blown out in 4 of those 7 losses, 53-161, an average of 13-40, and losing those games by 20, 21, 30, and 37.  

 

All in all, the combined record of teams beaten by Marrone's Bills was 70-74, and the combined record of teams that his Bills lost two was 62-50.  Marrone's biggest loss was by 15 points, and his schedule was notably tougher.  

 

Marrone's team had a +54 Point-Differential that season.  343-289  

In his 9 wins, the team scored 231 and allowed 118, an average of 26-13.  In his 7 losses the team scored 112 and allowed 171, an average of 16-24.  

 

McD's team had a -57 Point-Differential that season.  302-359 

In his 9 wins, the team scored 209 and allowed 135, an average of 23-15.  In his 7 losses the team scored 93 and allowed 224, an average of 13-32.  

 

On McD's 2017 schedule, the teams he faced had offenses ranked, the bolded ones were the wins:  

2nd (twice), 4th, 6th, 12th, 13th, 15th, 18th, 23rd, 24th (twice) 26th, 27th, 28th (twice), 30th

Average Offensive ranking of teams played:  17.5 

Average Offensive ranking of teams beaten:  22.1 

 

On McD's 2017 schedule, the teams he faced had defenses ranked:  

3rd, 5th (twice), 8th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 16th, 20th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th (twice), 29th (twice), 30th  

Average Defensive ranking of teams played:  17.1 

Averaged Defensive ranking of teams beaten:  24.9  

 

On Marrone's 2014 schedule, the teams he faced had offenses ranked:  

1st, 2nd, 4th (twice), 11th (twice), 14th, 16th, 17th, 20th, 22nd, 23rd, 27th, 28th (twice), and 31st 

Average Offensive ranking of teams played:  16.2 

Average Offensive ranking of teams beaten:  18.2 

 

On Marrone's 2014 schedule, the teams he faced had defenses ranked:  

2nd, 3rd, 7th, 8th (twice), 9th, 11th, 13th, 14th, 17th, 20th (twice), 24th (twice), 31st, and 32nd  

Average Defensive ranking of teams played:  15.2  

Average Defensive ranking of teams beaten:  15.9  

 

After that, all we can do is compare the two with Allen, and even then, is 2018 went 6-10 where McD's game and offensive scoring metrics got even worse, and worse offensively than all but four of our drought era teams.  2001, 2003, both under Williams, and 2007 and 2009, both under Jauron, ironically also both defensive coaches.  Defensively his 2018 scoring metrics weren't great either, being worse than all but 7 seasons in the drought era, primarily under Williams and Gailey.  

 

Argue as you may, but that's a lot (of facts) to contradict in coming to your conclusion.  But then on top of it to insist that Allen's not by far and away the primary reason why the team is doing anything to me is to be disingenuous.  

 

As often mentioned, at some point it's going to become apparent that McD has been resting on Allen's laurels so to speak.  I suspect that point in time will begin following this season as I suspect that McD's going to have quite fewer apologists in his corner.  If he even approaches putting up the #1 D this season you can count me in as being surprised.  

 

We'll see.  

 

 

 

If you've written professionally, you're probably familiar with the expression, "economy of words."  

 

Honestly, this was too long a justification for your personal position for me to be read in its entirety.  

[HappyDays]

Is it time to start asking questions about Brett Veach's ability to evaluate offensive skill players? He hasn't hit on a single pick yet.

 

1st rounder spent on CEH - Bust

3rd rounder spent on Toney - Never healthy and singlehandedly cost them a game

2nd rounder spent on Skyy Moore - Trending towards bust

2nd rounder spent on Mecole Hardman - Probably the best of the bunch but did not live up to the value of his draft pick

 

Some of the players they passed on in favor of the above players:

 

Mecole Hardman:

-DK Metcalf

-Diontae Johnson

-Terry McLaurin

 

CEH:

-Tee Higgins

-Jonathan Taylor

 

Skyy Moore:

-George Pickens

 

Us picking Kaiir Elam over Christian Watson was almost certainly a mistake. What about the Chiefs taking George Karlaftis over him? Doesn't that look equally stupid in light of their glaring WR issue and Karlaftis looking pretty mediocre?

 

I still contend that drafting has not been the difference between us and them.

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

If you've written professionally, you're probably familiar with the expression, "economy of words."  

 

Honestly, this was too long a justification for your personal position for me to be read in its entirety.  

 

Then it's not for you.  

 

"Economy of words" is fine for the typical 250 word nonsense piece designed for the person with the attention span of a hungry animal.  

 

It's not for everyone, in the same way that crafting arguments that are supposed to be taken seriously in two sentences aren't.  

 

Some people prefer substance.  Some don't.  To each his own.  

 

No sense in commenting if it's not your cup of tea though, right?   I mean what's the point?  Just to vent your emotional disposition?  

 

 

[TH3]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

It’s good….Bills sucked for 20 years before…. Now they are a powerhouse …..FFS what do people want?

On 9/6/2023 at 2:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

It’s good….Bills sucked for 20 years before…. Now they are a powerhouse …..FFS what do people want?

On 9/6/2023 at 2:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

It’s good….Bills sucked for 20 years before…. Now they are a powerhouse …..FFS what do people want?

On 9/6/2023 at 2:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

It’s good….Bills sucked for 20 years before…. Now they are a powerhouse …..FFS what do people want?

On 9/6/2023 at 2:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

It’s good….Bills sucked for 20 years before…. Now they are a powerhouse …..FFS what do people want?

On 9/6/2023 at 2:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

It’s good….Bills sucked for 20 years before…. Now they are a powerhouse …..FFS what do people want?

On 9/6/2023 at 2:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

It’s good….Bills sucked for 20 years before…. Now they are a powerhouse …..FFS what do people want?

[GoBills808]

33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Is it time to start asking questions about Brett Veach's ability to evaluate offensive skill players? He hasn't hit on a single pick yet.

 

1st rounder spent on CEH - Bust

3rd rounder spent on Toney - Never healthy and singlehandedly cost them a game

2nd rounder spent on Skyy Moore - Trending towards bust

2nd rounder spent on Mecole Hardman - Probably the best of the bunch but did not live up to the value of his draft pick

 

Some of the players they passed on in favor of the above players:

 

Mecole Hardman:

-DK Metcalf

-Diontae Johnson

-Terry McLaurin

 

CEH:

-Tee Higgins

-Jonathan Taylor

 

Skyy Moore:

-George Pickens

 

Us picking Kaiir Elam over Christian Watson was almost certainly a mistake. What about the Chiefs taking George Karlaftis over him? Doesn't that look equally stupid in light of their glaring WR issue and Karlaftis looking pretty mediocre?

 

I still contend that drafting has not been the difference between us and them.

Been saying this

[eball]

@TH3 gotta get the papers, get the papers…

 

[FireChans]

16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am REALLY not doing that. Again stop trying to read things that are not in my posts. You do it all the time and it is really ***** frustrating. Just read the words I write. I write for a living. Words are my currency. When I write something I mean the thing I write. I don't mean the thing I didn't write. If I did, I'd write that instead.

 

Of course Quarterback matters in terms of making the playoffs. It matters more than anything else. 

 

I disagree with both your contentions A and B though. Because McDermott is a LOT better as a coach than Marrone. Thst shouldn't even be a controversial view. 

My man, he’s trolling. High effort trolling, but trolling. He will sit there all day accusing you of putting words in his mouth, then set up something you’re “implicitly saying” to beat it down. 
 

At first I thought it was just a gap in logic, but it’s too consistent. It’s a troll job. 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

.  

 

Argue as you may, but that's a lot (of facts) to contradict in coming to your conclusion.  But then on top of it to insist that Allen's not by far and away the primary reason why the team is doing anything to me is to be disingenuous.  

 

 

 

I have never said that either. Unless you stop putting words in my mouth I am stopping responding to you. 

 

You will get your Gilliam homework. But beyond that - it's done. Cos you are not interested in an honest conversation. What you are interested in is banging your drum and openly lying about what other have said to try and win arguments.

[Chaos]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Is it time to start asking questions about Brett Veach's ability to evaluate offensive skill players? He hasn't hit on a single pick yet.

 

1st rounder spent on CEH - Bust

3rd rounder spent on Toney - Never healthy and singlehandedly cost them a game

2nd rounder spent on Skyy Moore - Trending towards bust

2nd rounder spent on Mecole Hardman - Probably the best of the bunch but did not live up to the value of his draft pick

 

Some of the players they passed on in favor of the above players:

 

Mecole Hardman:

-DK Metcalf

-Diontae Johnson

-Terry McLaurin

 

CEH:

-Tee Higgins

-Jonathan Taylor

 

Skyy Moore:

-George Pickens

 

Us picking Kaiir Elam over Christian Watson was almost certainly a mistake. What about the Chiefs taking George Karlaftis over him? Doesn't that look equally stupid in light of their glaring WR issue and Karlaftis looking pretty mediocre?

 

I still contend that drafting has not been the difference between us and them.

Here's the thing. In 2022, Bills Rookies played 477 snaps, and went out in the divisional round of the playoffs. Chiefs rookies played over 2000 snaps in 2022 and they won the superbowl.   This is the reason people think the Chiefs have done a better job drafting.  A lot of fans think winning Super Bowls is better than establishing culture and process. 

You can argue against the rookie contribution being an important part of Chiefs super bowl win if you want. But most people are not caught up in causation arguments.  They simply see the correlation of the chiefs rookies playing 4 times as much as the Bills rookies while winning the Super Bowl and conclude that means Veach did a good job drafting. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Chaos

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Here's the thing. In 2022, Bills Rookies played 477 snaps, and went out in the divisional round of the playoffs. Chiefs rookies played over 2000 snaps in 2022 and they won the superbowl.   This is the reason people think the Chiefs have done a better job drafting.  A lot of fans think winning Super Bowls is better than establishing culture and process. 

You can argue against the rookie contribution being an important part of Chiefs super bowl win if you want. But most people are not caught up in causation arguments.  They simply see the correlation of the chiefs rookies playing 4 times as much as the Bills rookies while winning the Super Bowl and conclude that means Veach did a good job drafting. 

 

There is zero doubt their 2021 and 2022 classes are better than ours. That isn't disputable.

[PBF81]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have never said that either. Unless you stop putting words in my mouth I am stopping responding to you. 

 

You will get your Gilliam homework. But beyond that - it's done. Cos you are not interested in an honest conversation. What you are interested in is banging your drum and openly lying about what other have said to try and win arguments.

 

You said that "McD was a LOT better than Marrone."   That's what I was responding to.   You're the one that put words in my mouth buy insinuating that I said that Marrone was a better coach.  I never said that at all, ever.  They're different to be sure.  McD more defensive based, Marrone more offensive based.  Another fact, Marrone's track record as an OC on average was notably better than McD's track record on average as a DC prior to both coming to Buffalo.  

 

So feel free to say it now then.  

 

Put into print that the reason why this team has won the division and made the playoffs is because of Allen's play first and foremost by a long shot.  Maybe you have said as much and I've simply missed it.  I don't read every thread here.  But I'd like to see it myself.  It seems to me that you're avoiding doing just that.  

 

Your assertion and accusation is ridiculous.  If you don't think I'm interested in honest conversation, then tell me, specifically, which of what I wrote above is dishonest.  What I'm not interested in is sustaining opinions as facts.  It's clear that most of the latter part of what I wrote is nothing other than verifiable facts.  It seems to me that it's those that you don't want to deal with in a conversational sense.  That's on you.  

 

What you don't like and are avoiding is that they don't support, not even close, your position.  So you take the angle above.  Let's at least be honest with one another in your quest for "honest discussion."  

 

Otherwise, I'm here, unemotional, and happy to engage.  

 

Keep me posted on that Gilliam video.  It's the same there.  You made the claim that Gilliam "makes impact plays" often.  You specifically cited and called out the two KC games in which you unequivocally stated that Gilliam was responsible for many impact plays in both of those games.  I went through the highlights of one, looked at the vast majority of our yards in big plays and all of the TD scoring plays.  Apart from the fact that Gilliam was rarely on the field for any of the scoring plays, two or three others if I recall correctly, but that he didn't make a single impact on any of them.  So the evidence you presented, directly, in support of that claim is clearly false, at least for one of the two games.  I'd guess, based on common sense and reason, that if I went through the second game it wouldn't be much different.  I'm not putting anything in your mouth, rather I'm taking what comes out of it, trying to validate it, and coming up short.  I'm offering you the opportunity to clarify, using hard verifiable facts, not simply saying it.  

 

Seems as if your defense of McD being "a LOT better than Marrone" is built on the same type of evidence.  

 

You were also one of those that Klein would make the team too, because he was good, right.  BTW, and I doubt you'll disagree, but Kirksey is not a whole lot different than Klein.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

At the end of the day I'm not the one not supporting my position with ample factual information in these two particular cases.  

 

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by PBF81

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

Put into print that the reason why this team has won the division and made the playoffs is because of Allen's play first and foremost by a long shot.  

 

 

I have said it multiple times. I repeat it now. Quarterback play in the NFL is the single biggest determinative factor in wins and losses. Josh Allen is the single biggest reason that this team is reigning 3 time division champion. That has never been questioned by me in anything I have said. 

 

28 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

You were also one of those that Klein would make the team too, because he was good, right.  BTW, and I doubt you'll disagree, but Kirksey is not a whole lot different than Klein.  

 

 

I did think Klein would make the the team but I was NOT one of the people telling you he was good. Not at all, again, putting words in my mouth I never said. I thought he'd make the team because they would only have limited trust in whichever one of Dodson / Bernard won the job and they'd want Klein as their break glass in case of emergency vet. My prediction was whichever one of Bernard or Dodson lost the job would be cut and they'd keep Klein as their vet insurance. But I never expected him to start, let alone told you he was good. You have accused me of this before and I've told you that you have me mistaken with someone else on Klein. 

 

HERE is my opinion on the MLB battle to prove what I say above.

 

As for Kirksey... I think at his best he was a better MLB than Klein. Klein was never a starting MLB really. He did in some to cover injuries for Keuchly in Carolina and then did it some to cover injuries for Edmunds here but his entire career as a starter - both in Carolina and New Orleans - came as an outside backer (mainly at SAM). But I'm not here to tell you Kirksey is great either. He hasn't really been good since he left Cleveland. 

 

By the way I also never insinuated that you said Marrone was a better coach than McDermott either. If I'd wanted to make that point I'd have said it. I didn't. I said the reason I disagreed with your assertions A and B was because McDermott is a LOT better coach than Marrone. I said nothing about your view on that point. I simply said that was the basis for my disagreement with your earlier assertions. Again, stick to what I say. It will help. 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Matt_In_NH]

On 9/7/2023 at 12:23 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

No. Ultimately it's on Josh. I'm saying that I believe a lot of Josh's anxiety that caused the fumble was due to knowing his IOL was getting blown off the ball all day (all season), and that he'd have to get out quick.

So its on Josh but it's not on Josh at the same time!

[Matt_In_NH]

On 9/7/2023 at 6:43 PM, PBF81 said:

My position is two-fold;  

 

A.  Put Allen on that team and Marrone does at least what McD's done here, and is more successful in the playoffs.  

 

B.  Put Marrone as the coach of our current team during McD's tenure, and he also doesn't do any worse than McD's done.  

Doug Marrone has a coaching record of 38-60.  McDermott s 66-40.  I get it McDermott has Josh Allen but this is just troll nonsense.  Maybe you believe it but there is not much evidence you are right.  You think McDermott is not at least partially responsible for the development of Josh Allen?  He helped put other coaches and players around him to develop him, he changed the culture of a football organization that was in the toilet leading up to and including Marrone's years.  Marrone quit on the team also.    I am critical of the staff at times but you are not giving credit where credit is due.  

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have said it multiple times. I repeat it now. Quarterback play in the NFL is the single biggest determinative factor in wins and losses. Josh Allen is the single biggest reason that this team is reigning 3 time division champion. That has never been questioned by me in anything I have said.

 

To what extent?   That's where you haven't provided an inkling of a clue.  

 

i.e., how many games per average on a season do we win because he is our QB, and apart from coaching?  
 

I'll provide a perspective from which to operate.  Once Brady hit his stride in NE, his third season let's say, which is fair, Belichick's Pats have averaged 12.5 wins/season, and that includes Brady playing into his 40s there.  Since that time Belichick with a relatively average QB and Newton, and one that arguably has been better than most that we've had during our drought era, has average over 4 wins/season fewer in three seasons.  

 

I've always said that a very good coach will regularly get 8-10 wins with an average or perhaps even slightely below-average QB.  That's my opinion to be fair, but it is based upon factual data.  

 

 

39 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Doug Marrone has a coaching record of 38-60.  McDermott s 66-40.  I get it McDermott has Josh Allen but this is just troll nonsense.  Maybe you believe it but there is not much evidence you are right.  You think McDermott is not at least partially responsible for the development of Josh Allen?  He helped put other coaches and players around him to develop him, he changed the culture of a football organization that was in the toilet leading up to and including Marrone's years.  Marrone quit on the team also.    I am critical of the staff at times but you are not giving credit where credit is due.  

 

Get the context before chiming in please.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

To what extent?   That's where you haven't provided an inkling of a clue.  

 

 

I don't know that it is quantifiable. I honestly don't. But broadly I'd say about 50% QB, 25% rest of roster talent, 25% coaching. 

 

So I'd say it has double the impact of the other two factors.

[1onemangang7]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:15 PM, eball said:

Came across this tweet today...

 

 

I will note that the 48% does NOT include Milano or Tre White, whom most say McD drafted using Whaley's prep work.  And if we ignore specialists and focus on the O and D starting 22, the percentage is actually 55%.

 

So, is that good?  Not good?

 

it' neither good or not good.  For example it's good that he brought in a guy to play behind Josh Allen at rb, it's not good that it isnt someone elses starting rb.  

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't know that it is quantifiable. I honestly don't. But broadly I'd say about 50% QB, 25% rest of roster talent, 25% coaching. 

 

So I'd say it has double the impact of the other two factors.

 

Sorry, that doesn't answer the question as to what kind of an impact Allen makes in the W/L column.  Try again.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Sorry, that doesn't answer the question as to what kind of an impact Allen makes in the W/L column.  Try again.  

 

 

 

I have given you an answer elsewhere but this isn't based on anything. It is gut feeling. 

 

Your argument, I think, Tom Brady (the GOAT) is worth what 4 (I think it was actually 5 if I remember) wins more than Cam Newton the following year when Cam was the worst starter in the league. Yep. I'm somewhat surprised the gap wasn't bigger. It should have been. Getting 7 wins out of that New England team in 2020 was a hell of a job. I know you were averaging and they won 10 with Mac. And that kinda proves the point, right? It depends what the baseline is. 

 

If you are comparing an elite QB against a terrible one (which Cam was that year in NE he was totally washed and which Kyle Allen is) the gap might be as big as 6 games. If you are comparing an elite QB to a middling starter it might be 4 games. If you are comparing to a good starter it might be a couple of games. 

 

EDIT: also worth saying the talent on those New England rosters since Brady has been pretty ropey. It wasn't great Tom's last year in fairness but then after he left Collins and Van Noy left, Hightower and Chung opted out, Edelman and Gilmore got hurt. That is why isolating single factors in a scientific way is never possible. All you can do is have a rough guess because no two rosters ever do stay the same year to year except for one piece. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by GunnerBill

[DrDawkinstein]

3 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

So its on Josh but it's not on Josh at the same time!

 

That's the beauty of Football!

 

Team sport and no single performance is completely independent.

[BFLO]

22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have given you an answer elsewhere but this isn't based on anything. It is gut feeling. 

 

Your argument, I think, Tom Brady (the GOAT) is worth what 4 (I think it was actually 5 if I remember) wins more than Cam Newton the following year when Cam was the worst starter in the league. Yep. I'm somewhat surprised the gap wasn't bigger. It should have been. Getting 7 wins out of that New England team in 2020 was a hell of a job. I know you were averaging and they won 10 with Mac. And that kinda proves the point, right? It depends what the baseline is. 

 

If you are comparing an elite QB against a terrible one (which Cam was that year in NE he was totally washed and which Kyle Allen is) the gap might be as big as 6 games. If you are comparing an elite QB to a middling starter it might be 4 games. If you are comparing to a good starter it might be a couple of games. 

 

EDIT: also worth saying the talent on those New England rosters since Brady has been pretty ropey. It wasn't great Tom's last year in fairness but then after he left Collins and Van Noy left, Hightower and Chung opted out, Edelman and Gilmore got hurt. That is why isolating single factors in a scientific way is never possible. All you can do is have a rough guess because no two rosters ever do stay the same year to year except for one piece. 

Don't forget Belichick squeezing 11 wins out of Matt Cassel in between a 16-0 season by Brady and a 10-6 season by Brady.