Training Camp 8/1 9:45

[Beck Water]

15 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I dunno why this is being attacked as unreasonable. All these are more relevant than stats. Game in, game out, "did the defense do its job today."

 

It's being attacked as unreasonable because without objective metrics, perceptions can be highly falliable and misleading.  Emotions and feelings, when it comes to cold hard football facts, even more so.

 

Ever heard the saying "one awshit wipes out 10 attaboys"?  That saying encapsulates the fact that our perceptions and memories of an error, easily overwhelm our perceptions of positive contributions.  There's also the point that eyewitness testimony has become recognized as notoriously unreliable.

 

15 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Weird to condemn the eyeball test when it goes against you, but embrace it when it goes with you.

 

Who is doing this?

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Thank you.

 

From The Athletic just minutes ago:

 

"The first-team defense wound up with six would-be sacks on only 25 dropbacks, and on some of the pass attempts, Allen had to settle for a shorter throw because the pressure got there quickly. After three good days of offensive success, the defense battled back to win the day at the line of scrimmage, and then dominated the final portion of practice, as well."

 

Chillax, people... this is the natural ebb and flow of training camp practices.

 

 

Do you have a linky?  Doesn't seem to be a Joe B production.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

I seldom get caught up in stats, but you made the declaration that they wouldn’t be a top 10 defense, which is a stat based argument. How else do you quantify a ranking? I’d be interested in that. 
 

That said, while we’ve been a top tier defense statistically under McD, I’ve never thought of us as a dominant defense that can dictate games on the field. Then again, few teams can do that nowadays, if any, really.

Nice post!

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Haven't really heard anything about Leonard Floyd, is he playing as expected? 

There was a report out that was terrorizing Allen all day, along with Oliver…👍

[Special K]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 After three good days of offensive success, the defense battled back to win the day at the line of scrimmage, and then dominated the final portion of practice, as well."

 

Chillax, people... this is the natural ebb and flow of training camp practices.

 

 

I said this earlier in the thread....the D came in with a chip on their shoulders today.

 

Not to mention the fact that the O was working on 3rd and long scenarios today...a situation that is advantageous to the D. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Special K

[Doc Brown]

Just now, Special K said:

 

I said this earlier in the thread....the D came in with a chip on their shoulders today.

 

Not to mention the fact that the O was working on 3rd and long scenarios today...a situation that is advantageous to the D. 

Did Cam Lewis knock the ball down at all today instead of going for the interception?

[Special K]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Did Cam Lewis knock the ball down at all today instead of going for the interception?

 

Don't give me flashbacks of that Justin Jefferson catch!🤢🤮

[jkeerie]

40 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

Don't give me flashbacks of that Justin Jefferson catch!🤢🤮

When Jefferson won the ESPY for the best play with that catch, Cam Lewis should have been given one for a "supporting role."

[Warcodered]

 

[Nelius]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

But I'm the biased unreasonable guy here. Oh OK if you say so.

 

I mean, ya. There's like four of you battling for top pessimist on a daily basis and you're definitely in 2nd or 3rd place. When it's constant negativity it's a trend, and your reasoning for why this top ranked defense is so average conveniently leaves out injuries to Von, Hyde, and Poyer. Unreasonable? Probably not. Biased? Definitely.

[JoPoy88]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Nice post!

not really a compliment since it points out the idiocy of your argument while trying to be nice…

 

Look you can have issues with how the defense has been coached and called (which are no longer relevant with Frazier gone) all you want. The stats are just numerical representations of what happened on the field. So you saying “stats lie” and incredibly dumb s*** like that doesn’t help your cause, which seems to be sinking by the day. Stats don’t lie, because they can’t lie. 

[newcam2012]

26 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

not really a compliment since it points out the idiocy of your argument while trying to be nice…

 

Look you can have issues with how the defense has been coached and called (which are no longer relevant with Frazier gone) all you want. The stats are just numerical representations of what happened on the field. So you saying “stats lie” and incredibly dumb s*** like that doesn’t help your cause, which seems to be sinking by the day. Stats don’t lie, because they can’t lie. 

Never said stats lie. I think stats can be very deceiving. I absolutely think this is the case with the Bills defense in recent years. If memory serves me correctly, the Bills had one the top rated defenses 2 years in a row going into the playoffs. Last years defense was rated highly too dispute injuries. In those three years how confident were you in the Bills defense going into the playoffs? Did they perform at a high level? Like a top rated defense? 

 

Do they break defensive regular season into categories? Like what the defensive play vs top ranked teams? Lower ranked teams? Playoff teams? Poor teams? Have you seen those breakdowns? What is the most accurate statistic to look at? Sure the stats don't lie put the data entered certainly can change the statistical output. Thus, you get stats that don't always portray a level of accuracy. 

 

I believe that's absolutely the case with Buffalo over the last several years. I really never had a great level of confidence in the defense come playoff time despite the very high statistical data. I believe I'm not the only one who feels this way. 

 

So feel free to point to stats as absolutes if you like. Yes they play a part in sports and they sure are fun to discuss. However, they aren't the end all or entirely accurate either. The only paint part of the picture. 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Nelius said:

 

I mean, ya. There's like four of you battling for top pessimist on a daily basis and you're definitely in 2nd or 3rd place. When it's constant negativity it's a trend, and your reasoning for why this top ranked defense is so average conveniently leaves out injuries to Von, Hyde, and Poyer. Unreasonable? Probably not. Biased? Definitely.

I get that. That's fair. But do we know what kind of Von the Bills are getting back? Poyer and Hyde are injury prone and have a lot of mileage. What version of Tre do the Bills get? How about the LB position? Who takes over for Edmunds? Who starts besides Tre at CB? Will the Bills have a solid and consistent pass rush? Can they make 3rd down stops? 

 

Most importantly can they produce in the playoffs? Make a key stop vs Mahomes or Burrow? 

 

No one knows the answers. Too many unknown variables. What's know is for years under McD the playoff Bills defenses have been subpar. As a result, there's plenty to be pessimistic about. 

[JoPoy88]

4 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Never said stats lie. I think stats can be very deceiving. I absolutely think this is the case with the Bills defense in recent years. If memory serves me correctly, the Bills had one the top rated defenses 2 years in a row going into the playoffs. Last years defense was rated highly too dispute injuries. In those three years how confident were you in the Bills defense going into the playoffs? Did they perform at a high level? Like a top rated defense? 

 

Do they break defensive regular season into categories? Like what the defensive play vs top ranked teams? Lower ranked teams? Playoff teams? Poor teams? Have you seen those breakdowns? What is the most accurate statistic to look at? Sure the stats don't lie put the data entered certainly can change the statistical output. Thus, you get stats that don't always portray a level of accuracy. 

 

I believe that's absolutely the case with Buffalo over the last several years. I really never had a great level of confidence in the defense come playoff time despite the very high statistical data. I believe I'm not the only one who feels this way. 

 

So feel free to point to stats as absolutes if you like. Yes they play a part in sports and they sure are fun to discuss. However, they aren't the end all or entirely accurate either. The only paint part of the picture. 

so stats don’t “lie”, they just “deceive.” 
 

Which is a distinction without a difference.  Because if the stats don’t align with your eye test, which has absolutely no weight, the stats must be degraded as well. is that what you’re saying? Of course it’s not, that’d be ridiculous.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Nelius said:

 

I mean, ya. There's like four of you battling for top pessimist on a daily basis and you're definitely in 2nd or 3rd place. When it's constant negativity it's a trend, and your reasoning for why this top ranked defense is so average conveniently leaves out injuries to Von, Hyde, and Poyer. Unreasonable? Probably not. Biased? Definitely.

I just don't see an elite defense here. I can see a good one as a whole unit in sync. However, come playoff time you need 2 or 3 absolute studs to make plays. That's why Von was added. It's been a pattern no that the Bills D falls short in the playoffs. I don't see that changing based on the Bills roster. Nothing screams scary to me unless Von completely recovers and plays exceptional well. That's possibly but more unlikely rhan probable. 

 

Like I've said before, I believe the Bills path to the SB is Allen and the offense. If the oline improves and some younger guys step up this offense will be hard to stop. 

7 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

so stats don’t “lie”, they just “deceive.” 
 

Which is a distinction without a difference.  Because if the stats don’t align with your eye test, which has absolutely no weight, the stats must be degraded as well. is that what you’re saying? Of course it’s not, that’d be ridiculous.

Maybe reread my post because your take here is off base with respect. 

[Nelius]

31 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I just don't see an elite defense here. I can see a good one as a whole unit in sync. However, come playoff time you need 2 or 3 absolute studs to make plays.

 

Fair enough - Von, Poyer, Hyde, Leonard Floyd

 

All old yes but you need those wily vets for a run. Rousseau the real dark horse. And I'm not even mentioning Tre because like many I'm still not convinced, but if he's back to form, that's at least 4 studs. It's not like this is the Texans defense or something, it's a combo of legit vets and potential everywhere

 

Edit - can't believe I forgot Milano. Studs abound newcam, hope it's enough studs

Edited August 2, 2023 by Nelius

[JoPoy88]

35 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Maybe reread my post because your take here is off base with respect. 

I always read through something twice before I reply, with respect, and I can tell what you’re doing.. it’s fine, it’s your personal opinion, but you’re not putting any high-brow takes out there outside of those “lying” “stats” 

[Chandler#81]

7 hours ago, NewEra said:

Your post is overly pessimistic.  Per usual.  We’ve had a top 2 scoring defense 3 of the last 4 years.  
 

We have the toughest schedule in the league and face the best QBs we’ve faced in a season…. So I get where you come from- but count on us having one of the best defenses in the league if healthy. We’ve proven to be a top D year in year out.   People should be optimistic based on our defensive track record. 
 

You hate the HC/DC - so you’re obviously biased

Yep.just consider the source. 🤷‍♂️

[Sierra Foothills]

7 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Do you have a linky?  Doesn't seem to be a Joe B production.

 

Behind a paywall but as requested:

 

https://theathletic.com/4740116/2023/08/01/buffalo-bills-training-camp-5/

 

 

[eball]

11 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Lucky if this defense cracks the top ten. Your post is overly optimistic. 

 

Let’s allow this post to sit and age this season.  Will it be fine wine, or a bottle of vinegar?  Time will tell…

 

[JGMcD2]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Never said stats lie. I think stats can be very deceiving. I absolutely think this is the case with the Bills defense in recent years. If memory serves me correctly, the Bills had one the top rated defenses 2 years in a row going into the playoffs. Last years defense was rated highly too dispute injuries. In those three years how confident were you in the Bills defense going into the playoffs? Did they perform at a high level? Like a top rated defense? 

 

Do they break defensive regular season into categories? Like what the defensive play vs top ranked teams? Lower ranked teams? Playoff teams? Poor teams? Have you seen those breakdowns? What is the most accurate statistic to look at? Sure the stats don't lie put the data entered certainly can change the statistical output. Thus, you get stats that don't always portray a level of accuracy. 

 

I believe that's absolutely the case with Buffalo over the last several years. I really never had a great level of confidence in the defense come playoff time despite the very high statistical data. I believe I'm not the only one who feels this way. 

 

So feel free to point to stats as absolutes if you like. Yes they play a part in sports and they sure are fun to discuss. However, they aren't the end all or entirely accurate either. The only paint part of the picture. 

Yeah, I think everyone agrees with that. The rest of the picture requires context and knowledge.
 

What most don’t want to agree with is your gut feeling carrying any significance. 
 

If you were breaking down film or bringing relevant facts to the table, I think this would be a different conversation. Unfortunately, it’s been a lot of “I think” and “I feel” with very little substance.