Training Camp 8/1 9:45

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I get that. That's fair. But do we know what kind of Von the Bills are getting back? Poyer and Hyde are injury prone and have a lot of mileage. What version of Tre do the Bills get? How about the LB position? Who takes over for Edmunds? Who starts besides Tre at CB? Will the Bills have a solid and consistent pass rush? Can they make 3rd down stops? 

 

Most importantly can they produce in the playoffs? Make a key stop vs Mahomes or Burrow? 

 

No one knows the answers. Too many unknown variables. What's know is for years under McD the playoff Bills defenses have been subpar. As a result, there's plenty to be pessimistic about. 

 

Don't think the bolded is fair. The rest is. Hyde and Poyer have been extremely durable during their time here. Poyer has barely missed a game even if he played hurt a lot last year and Hyde has had just one big injury. The other questions are totally the right ones. 

[Jerry Jabber]

9 hours ago, freddyjj said:

I wonder if his table jumping on draft night tweaked his back.  How Billsy would that be?

That would be up there with the Gus Frerotte headbutt.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yeah, I think everyone agrees with that. The rest of the picture requires context and knowledge.
 

What most don’t want to agree with is your gut feeling carrying any significance. 
 

If you were breaking down film or bringing relevant facts to the table, I think this would be a different conversation. Unfortunately, it’s been a lot of “I think” and “I feel” with very little substance. 

That's fair. 

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

Let’s allow this post to sit and age this season.  Will it be fine wine, or a bottle of vinegar?  Time will tell…

 

Hopefully, I'm wrong. 

[Royale with Cheese]

11 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The defense wasn't that good last year. I don't care what the stats said. Also, the previous two years the Bills were the top rated defense. Only to get their doors blown off come playoff time.

 

Don't get caught up in the stats. If so, it's fair to say the Bills loss in the playoffs under McD with a sub 500 record and disappointing early exits. Isn't that the only stat that realty counts? 

 

Let's call it as it is even if it's unpopular and unpleasant. 

 

Any time you post one of your stats, this will be used.  

[SoCal Deek]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I get that. That's fair. But do we know what kind of Von the Bills are getting back? Poyer and Hyde are injury prone and have a lot of mileage. What version of Tre do the Bills get? How about the LB position? Who takes over for Edmunds? Who starts besides Tre at CB? Will the Bills have a solid and consistent pass rush? Can they make 3rd down stops? 

 

Most importantly can they produce in the playoffs? Make a key stop vs Mahomes or Burrow? 

 

No one knows the answers. Too many unknown variables. What's know is for years under McD the playoff Bills defenses have been subpar. As a result, there's plenty to be pessimistic about. 

And what’s really funny is that even with all of your legitimate questions, the Bills are still in the mix as one of the very best teams going into 2024. Just be thankful you’re not cheering for a team whose list of questions includes starting QB or a host of other concerns. 😉

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

so stats don’t “lie”, they just “deceive.” 
 

Which is a distinction without a difference.  Because if the stats don’t align with your eye test, which has absolutely no weight, the stats must be degraded as well. is that what you’re saying? Of course it’s not, that’d be ridiculous.

 

I guess to some people, the distinction is volitional - lies are deliberately deceptive, where as deception can be unintentional?  IDK.

 

As someone who spent education/career working with numbers, statistics require careful context to be meaningful.  And, they can be cherry-picked to make a point - which can be a form of lie.

 

On the other hand, the eye test requires context to be meaningful as well as methodical observation from which the observer tries to eliminate personal bias. Professional football scouts train for this.  Fans don't.  And when you don't, you fall into the natural pattern of human psychology where "one aweshit cancels 10 attaboys" - seeing one mistake or bad angle leads you to say "he can't catch" or "he's never taking the right angle"

 

As far as the Bills defense, they did NOT collapse in the 2021 playoffs.  They did a nice job on NWE.  A defense will seldom be able to totally shut down a top, juggernaut offense like KC.  What they need to do, is stop the offense 4-5 times for FG or punts.  The Bills D did that (as KC did to us), until the 13 seconds end (I'm not sure what you'd call that, it was certainly play calls/mistakes/execution lapses but total collapse, no)

 

In 2022, the defense didn't "collapse" in the Miami game.  42 rush yards and 220 pass yards is not a statistical collapse.  In fact, they bailed the offense out of a 4 fumble (1 lost), 2 interception effort.  Against the Bengals, as far as I can tell, it was a total team collapse in all 3 phases.  That speaks to psychology, not defensive scheme.

 

The statistics of that game don't lie, but they have to be put in context.  And part of that context is, on top of the pre-existing injuries toward the end of the season (Micah Hyde, Von Miller, Damar Hamlin Out; Jordan Poyer, Ed Oliver playing hurt) we piled on more from Miami.  Of our DL starters, DaQuan Jones was out, Jordan Phillips was playing through a shoulder injury in a brace and limited, Tim Settle was playing on a calf injury.   Guys like Eli Ankou and Boogie Basham were seeing significant time - and they're 2nd string for a reason.  At one point our safeties were Cam Lewis and Jaquan Johnson.  It's very observable that it was not the same defensive players that had put up the statistically great season, and when it was, they were obviously injured (wearing linebacker braces etc)

 

What I find someone odd is, seems to me the same people who dismiss statistics as deceptive and prefer to rely on the "eye test" of saying the defense collapsed, don't seem willing or able to note this very basic and readily observable fact of it not being the same players, or them being injured - or dismiss it as an "excuse", when looking at the poor defensive result in the Bengals game.  Yet injured/different players should surely be part of an "eye test"

Edited August 2, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

19 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This was not an easy catch by any means and I have seen all of our WR's, including Diggs drop much easier ones.  Shakir gets way too much flack for this one drop everyone always brings up IMHO.

 

This is legit, I have been telling people all offseason that Sherfield and Harty and better than people think, although the injury concern with Harty is also significant.  But they will have roles on this team, and Kincaid is going to as well.  So even if Shakir is kind of the default slot guy like McKenzie was last year, he will still need to make plays to be involved with any consistency. 

 

As far as Diggs drops vs Shakir - here's that "eyeball test".  When you're leading the team in receptions and yards as Diggs does, sure, you hate to see a drop.  But in context of 150+ targets, 8 drops is relatively insignificant (5.2%). 

 

But when you're a rookie trying to prove yourself and earn more playing time as Shakir is,  and you've gotten 20 targets, dropping 2 of them (scored drops, not contested or difficult catches of which there were also some "he coulda got that one" examples) is a much bigger deal that deserves its scrutiny.  I like Shakir, and want him to succeed, but the cold hard football facts are that WR spots on the 53 man roster are limited, and need to go to a guy who won't drop 10% of his targets if the team wants to go places.  So if Shakir wants to be that guy, he needs to fix it.

 

The injury concern with Harty looms large to me.  When you have posters whose opinions are often as diametrically opposed as myself and @BADOLBILZ and they both unanimously hone in on same concern on a player, it's probably legit.  He's fast, and we have a good training staff, but scar tissue and damage from repeated injuries is a Thing.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Beck Water

[Paul Costa]

8 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I get that. That's fair. But do we know what kind of Von the Bills are getting back? Poyer and Hyde are injury prone and have a lot of mileage. What version of Tre do the Bills get? How about the LB position? Who takes over for Edmunds? Who starts besides Tre at CB? Will the Bills have a solid and consistent pass rush? Can they make 3rd down stops? 

 

Most importantly can they produce in the playoffs? Make a key stop vs Mahomes or Burrow? 

 

No one knows the answers. Too many unknown variables. What's know is for years under McD the playoff Bills defenses have been subpar. As a result, there's plenty to be pessimistic about. 

Safe to say you’re a glass half empty kinda guy. 🫠

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

And what’s really funny is that even with all of your legitimate questions, the Bills are still in the mix as one of the very best teams going into 2024. Just be thankful you’re not cheering for a team whose list of questions includes starting QB or a host of other concerns. 😉

I cheered for that team for decades. They were called the Buffalo Bills. 

 

As a life long Bills fan I only want one thing. We all know what that is. I've literally been waiting 50 plus years. 

 

The lack of a ring doesn't deter my love for the sport or the Bills. My criticism of the team doesn't effect my desire to proudly wear my Bills gear. I will always be a Bills fan because that's who I am.

 

What I can't understand is how the two get confounded, confused, and twisted. My criticism of the team, coaches, or management doesn't equate to being a bad fan, bad person, a troll, etc...

 

Of course, I enjoy the Bills making playoff appearences and having excellent regular season records. To insist or imply I don't is not accurate. Yes football as a Bills fan has been much much more enjoyable. I do appreciate the the success of the team. At the same time, I want more! The players want more! The fan base wants more! 

 

I for one don't want to settle for early playoff losses. Coaches being out coached in the playoffs. Coaches giving away games in the playoffs. The team falling short in the playoffs. That's exactly what we've seen under McD and Beane. Many are happy with the above. It doesn't satisfy my appetite as a Bills fan. 

 

I appreciate the path that Beane and McD have taken this team. It's commendable but yet fallen short. They too deserve criticism. I question their ability to close the deal. That's not a blemish on me as a Bills fan. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by newcam2012

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Any time you post one of your stats, this will be used.  

Ok. Stats have to be put in their proper perspective. Not all stats are equal nor do they paint a whole picture. That's the real point here. A literally interpretation of watch said is taking it out of context. But go ahead do what you desire. No harm no foul. 

17 minutes ago, Paul Costa said:

Safe to say you’re a glass half empty kinda guy. 🫠

That's definetly true. 

[Freddie's Dead]

On 8/1/2023 at 10:55 AM, Logic said:

Remember when Troy Vincent "accidentally" took out JP Losman's leg? Good times.

 

You mean the NFL Director of Player Safety?  That Troy Vincent?

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

As far as Diggs drops vs Shakir - here's that "eyeball test".  When you're leading the team in receptions and yards as Diggs does, sure, you hate to see a drop.  But in context of 150+ targets, 8 drops is relatively insignificant (5.2%). 

 

But when you're a rookie trying to prove yourself and earn more playing time as Shakir is,  and you've gotten 20 targets, dropping 2 of them (scored drops, not contested or difficult catches of which there were also some "he coulda got that one" examples) is a much bigger deal that deserves its scrutiny.  I like Shakir, and want him to succeed, but the cold hard football facts are that WR spots on the 53 man roster are limited, and need to go to a guy who won't drop 10% of his targets if the team wants to go places.  So if Shakir wants to be that guy, he needs to fix it.

 

The injury concern with Harty looms large to me.  When you have posters whose opinions are often as diametrically opposed as myself and @BADOLBILZ and they both unanimously hone in on same concern on a player, it's probably legit.  He's fast, and we have a good training staff, but scar tissue and damage from repeated injuries is a Thing.

I think Shakir got the edge on making the team on any WR besides Diggs and Davis. Probably Harty as well because he looks like the gadget guy. The other players we brought in are rookies or vets who bounced around the league, unless one really steps up and are destined to make a huge impact. I don’t have much faith in Sherfield or Izabella doing that

Edited August 2, 2023 by BananaB

[Royale with Cheese]

42 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Ok. Stats have to be put in their proper perspective. Not all stats are equal nor do they paint a whole picture. That's the real point here. A literally interpretation of watch said is taking it out of context. But go ahead do what you desire. No harm no foul. 

That's definetly true. 

 

You're not looking into perspective, you literally said "I don't care what the stat's say".  You're looking at your own perspective and that's it.  So anything positive about the Bills "I don't care what the stats say".

 

As far as your negativity....

 

https://www.bccpa.ca/news-events/cpabc-newsroom/2018/is-negative-thinking-bad-for-your-brain/

 

"The study found that a habit of prolonged negative thinking diminishes your brain's ability to think, reason, and form memories. Essentially draining your brain's resources."

[CSBill]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I guess to some people, the distinction is volitional - lies are deliberately deceptive, where as deception can be unintentional?  IDK.

 

As someone who spent education/career working with numbers, statistics require careful context to be meaningful.  And, they can be cherry-picked to make a point - which can be a form of lie.

 

On the other hand, the eye test requires context to be meaningful as well as methodical observation from which the observer tries to eliminate personal bias. Professional football scouts train for this.  Fans don't.  And when you don't, you fall into the natural pattern of human psychology where "one aweshit cancels 10 attaboys" - seeing one mistake or bad angle leads you to say "he can't catch" or "he's never taking the right angle"

 

As far as the Bills defense, they did NOT collapse in the 2021 playoffs.  They did a nice job on NWE.  A defense will seldom be able to totally shut down a top, juggernaut offense like KC.  What they need to do, is stop the offense 4-5 times for FG or punts.  The Bills D did that (as KC did to us), until the 13 seconds end (I'm not sure what you'd call that, it was certainly play calls/mistakes/execution lapses but total collapse, no)

 

In 2022, the defense didn't "collapse" in the Miami game.  42 rush yards and 220 pass yards is not a statistical collapse.  In fact, they bailed the offense out of a 4 fumble (1 lost), 2 interception effort.  Against the Bengals, as far as I can tell, it was a total team collapse in all 3 phases.  That speaks to psychology, not defensive scheme.

 

The statistics of that game don't lie, but they have to be put in context.  And part of that context is, on top of the pre-existing injuries toward the end of the season (Micah Hyde, Von Miller, Damar Hamlin Out; Jordan Poyer, Ed Oliver playing hurt) we piled on more from Miami.  Of our DL starters, DaQuan Jones was out, Jordan Phillips was playing through a shoulder injury in a brace and limited, Tim Settle was playing on a calf injury.   Guys like Eli Ankou and Boogie Basham were seeing significant time - and they're 2nd string for a reason.  At one point our safeties were Cam Lewis and Jaquan Johnson.  It's very observable that it was not the same defensive players that had put up the statistically great season, and when it was, they were obviously injured (wearing linebacker braces etc)

 

What I find someone odd is, seems to me the same people who dismiss statistics as deceptive and prefer to rely on the "eye test" of saying the defense collapsed, don't seem willing or able to note this very basic and readily observable fact of it not being the same players, or them being injured - or dismiss it as an "excuse", when looking at the poor defensive result in the Bengals game.  Yet injured/different players should surely be part of an "eye test"

Beck, Intelligent and informed replies are generally looked down upon here. Be careful. 🤪

[Beck Water]

22 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Bring a numbers guy, you should definitely understand that 20 targets isn't credible/far too few to pass judgment on a rookie.  1 fluke pass/drop, and there you go.  His Dolphins drop LY was a momentum killer and inexcusable at the time, but not his MO.

 

Agree a 10% drop rate isn't good at all, but if Shakir only sees 20 targets this year then that clearly means Kincaid/Harty/Sherfield are getting the targets...and nobody will be critiquing Shakirs 20, but the others who are getting looks.

 

Shakir MO has always been solid to great hands.  At Boise St, it was always a plus and his RAC ability.  He also showed well in camp LY, and earlier this May.  Beane has been praising him.

 

I think it's just way too early to pass judgment.  It's overreacting when someone says they're done with a player, especially someone coming into Year 2 who only had 20 targets....and especially when they're making that judgment on twitter reports (which have been inconsistent).  Perhaps the same conclusion will be reached at a later point, but not triggered based on inconsistent twitter reports

 

That might be true if Shakir were only on the field for a handful of snaps.  Maybe 60 snaps or something.  The point often missed by people who look at those 20 targets, is that Shakir was on the field for 275 snaps - at least 24% of the snaps.   Yet he was only targeted on 7.2% of his snaps.  So only 3.6% of his snaps led to a known positive result.

 

What was he doing the rest of the time?  For comparison, Gabe Davis (who was on the field 797 snaps as a rookie, and targeted a similar percentage - 7.8%) was extolled for his strong blocking abilities.  We haven't heard that about Shakir.

 

What we did see was Allen forcing the ball into Gabe Davis a lot, which says to me that Diggs wasn't open and either McKenzie/Shakir weren't, or Josh didn't trust their catching abilities relative to the defense when they were open.

 

It's harsh, but when a guy is down the depth chart, he needs to take advantage of the opportunities he gets.  We saw that with McKenzie. 

 

And last, you say "not his MO".  Well, if 20 targets isn't a credible statistical sample (valid), isn't it true that it isn't a sufficient sample to judge what is his MO?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

13 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm not saying the defense will be bad. I'm saying come playoff time I will have little confidence in the Bills defense. They have not been dependable or very good when playing the upper echolen teams. 

 

I'm banking on Allen and the offense to win future playoff games. 

Fools gold stats...

It was really a tale of two half seasons last year.  Things started going south when von went down because the secondary was too banged up already to hold up in coverage. Tre working his way back from the acl injury, poyer playing hurt, no Micah hyde.   I’d expect things to go differently this season if most of these guys are relatively healthy come playoff time.  
 

prior to last season I don’t think we really had the pass rush to slow down the chiefs 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Beck Water]

29 minutes ago, BananaB said:

I think Shakir got the edge on making the team on any WR besides Diggs and Davis. Probably Harty as well because he looks like the gadget guy. The other players we brought in are rookies or vets who bounced around the league, unless one really steps up and are destined to make a huge impact. I don’t have much faith in Sherfield or Izabella doing that

 

The Bills certainly went into training camp having Shakir slotted in as the #3 guy, Harty slotted in as the #4 and "gadget" guy, and Sherfield as the #5 "Kumerow" replacement who can play ST.

 

After drafting Kinkaid, the hope is that Kinkaid will become that "go to" outlet/slot receiver for Allen while the expectations on the slot wide receiver role will be reduced. 

 

My perception of the situation (given that Kinkaid continues to look like "all that" as the padded practices continue) is that a reduced expectation for slot production sort of puts Shakir into a general pool of "backup WR" where other considerations (how well can they play outside?  do they play ST and where?) apply.

 

I would definitely put Shakir below Harty on the overall "depth chart" right now WITH the huge caveat of the injury concern, because Harty is a more proven KR/PR and I believe his speed and elusiveness may make him a more successful outside receiver vs. Shakir.  And Sherfield also has that ST edge.

 

Which brings me back to a general concern as to whether the Bills have truly done "enough" at WR.

[BananaB]

29 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

That might be true if Shakir were only on the field for a handful of snaps.  Maybe 60 snaps or something.  The point often missed by people who look at those 20 targets, is that Shakir was on the field for 275 snaps - at least 24% of the snaps.   Yet he was only targeted on 7.2% of his snaps.  So only 3.6% of his snaps led to a known positive result.

 

What was he doing the rest of the time?  For comparison, Gabe Davis (who was on the field 797 snaps as a rookie, and targeted a similar percentage - 7.8%) was extolled for his strong blocking abilities.  We haven't heard that about Shakir.

 

What we did see was Allen forcing the ball into Gabe Davis a lot, which says to me that Diggs wasn't open and either McKenzie/Shakir weren't, or Josh didn't trust their catching abilities relative to the defense when they were open.

 

It's harsh, but when a guy is down the depth chart, he needs to take advantage of the opportunities he gets.  We saw that with McKenzie. 

 

And last, you say "not his MO".  Well, if 20 targets isn't a credible statistical sample (valid), isn't it true that it isn't a sufficient sample to judge what is his MO?

Josh didn’t trust anyone besides Diggs by December. Ain’t that why they brought in Beas and Smoke. 

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Josh didn’t trust anyone besides Diggs by December. Ain’t that why they brought in Beas and Smoke. 

 

That's why fans think they brought in Smoke and Beas (that order).  But it doesn't add up.

 

I think it was, purely and simply, a numbers game.  Crowder broke his leg October 8.  Hodgins was on the roster.  Then, in a "squeeze play" with Tre White needing to be activated but not quite ready to play at the beginning of Nov so we needed to roster an extra CB, we exposed Hodgins to waivers and the G-men pounced.  Less than 2 weeks later we put Kumerow on IR.

 

At that point, the Bills  had only 4 WR left on the roster - Diggs Davis McKenzie and Shakir!!!!  We needed depth!  We were elevating Tanner Gentry off the practice squad and using Quintin Morris some as a WR (which actually, is not a bad thing in my view but I digress).

 

If you look at the snap counts, it's pretty clear they were not trusting Brown and Beasley above McKenzie and Shakir. 

 

They were trusting them above Tanner Gentry and Keesean Johnson.

 

Also, if Josh didn't trust Davis, he was targeting the hell out of a guy he didn't trust, because Davis target share went up if anything the 2nd half of the season, while Diggs target share dipped at times.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Beck Water

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

That's why fans think they brought in Smoke and Beas (that order).  But it doesn't add up.

 

I think it was, purely and simply, a numbers game.  Crowder broke his leg October 8.  Hodgins was on the roster.  Then, in a "squeeze play" with Tre White needing to be activated but not quite ready to play at the beginning of Nov so we needed to roster an extra CB, we exposed Hodgins to waivers and the G-men pounced.  Less than 2 weeks later we put Kumerow on IR.

 

At that point, the Bills  had only 4 WR left on the roster - Diggs Davis McKenzie and Shakir!!!!  We needed depth!  We were elevating Tanner Gentry off the practice squad and using Quintin Morris some as a WR (which actually, is not a bad thing in my view but I digress).

 

If you look at the snap counts, it's pretty clear they were not trusting Brown and Beasley above McKenzie and Shakir. 

 

They were trusting them above Tanner Gentry and Keesean Johnson.

 

Also, if Josh didn't trust Davis, he was targeting the hell out of a guy he didn't trust, because Davis target share went up if anything the 2nd half of the season, while Diggs target share dipped at times.

You say we had 4 WRs- Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Shakir. Three of the four drop a ton of balls. The Bills brought in two sure-handed veterans who Josh knows he can trust with the football. The Bills had sooo many drives end because of drops.