Is Gabe Davis a trade candidate?

[StHustle]

We are not trading our only bonafide #2 WR on the roster. He played hurt all last season. It’s not an excuse…it’s a reason for his “decline” and even in that he put up very solid #2 WR numbers. This year Gabe will have the season we all hoped he’d have last year. He is CRITICAL to our Super Bowl chances.

 

/end thread

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The people who complain about Davis' depth of target negatively impacting him statistically never seem to want to consider why the Bills seem to only target him intermediate or deep.    It's been because he needs to get way down field just to get open.

Isn't that partially also a product of our offense in that WR2/X role?  I just wonder because 2021 Emmanuel Sanders averaged the highest depth of target by a full yard in a half in his 12 year career.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Gabe Davis looks lighter and faster. Hopefully he learned to catch.

[Dr.Sack]

Gabe Davis has done things that few WRs have ever done before. Is he perfect? No. Is he a nice complimentary piece behind a Top 5 WR? Yes. And for everyone who says production matters, his nickname is Playoff Gabe. I appreciate players who play their best when the playoffs come.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

I read this post and the one below and wonder how can people be watching the same player.  

 

And then, at this point, have to consider if/when Davis plays to the level he has how it affects the offense?  Is Kincaid now being targeted more and expected to shoulder a bigger load as a rookie?  The low-end UFA targets Harty and Sheffield getting more targets?  

 

 

Yeah I think they have proven they need a player to fit in between Diggs and Davis as the #2 option.   I think people are unrealistic thinking that Gabe is just going to fix his bad hands overnight and get a tick faster.   He could become more consistent but I think he is who he is at this point.   Which is fine if he's the CLEAR 3rd option.    But when teams can put their CB1 on Gabe and the Bills can't take advantage of that by throwing at the nickel and dime coverage players......the players that Gabe used to face......and making them pay with big plays.........it's proven to make them more prone to mistakes on offense.

[Warriorspikes51]

If we're lucky, we see a Gabe Davis with healthy ankles and playoff hands all season

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Isn't that partially also a product of our offense in that WR2/X role?  I just wonder because 2021 Emmanuel Sanders averaged the highest depth of target by a full yard in a half in his 12 year career.

 

The thing about Sanders is that he could play inside or out at a high level.   Even to some extent when he was out of gas in his final season,  with Buffalo.  That's why he was a WR1 for most of his career(even if he was on SB teams with other WR1's).

 

Gabe and Cole Beasley have pretty specific skillets and limitations and aren't/weren't capable of being the same quality of player playing inside or out.     

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I think they have proven they need a player to fit in between Diggs and Davis as the #2 option.   I think people are unrealistic thinking that Gabe is just going to fix his bad hands overnight and get a tick faster.   He could become more consistent but I think he is who he is at this point.   Which is fine if he's the CLEAR 3rd option.    But when teams can put their CB1 on Gabe and the Bills can't take advantage of that by throwing at the nickel and dime coverage players......the players that Gabe used to face......and making them pay with big plays.........it's proven to make them more prone to mistakes on offense.

I do hope Beane strongly considers acquiring a WR before the trade deadline if Gabe hasn't noticeably improved from last year 

Who knows, maybe someone becomes available via cut or trade in the next few weeks 

The again, if Kincaid is an impact immediately (which seems at the very least possible)  then we're in pretty good shape

Edited August 1, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, StHustle said:

We are not trading our only bonafide #2 WR on the roster. He played hurt all last season. It’s not an excuse…it’s a reason for his “decline” and even in that he put up very solid #2 WR numbers. This year Gabe will have the season we all hoped he’d have last year. He is CRITICAL to our Super Bowl chances.

 

/end thread

 

 

He played on a bad foot all season in 2021.   He originally injured the foot in the 2020 season and was severely hobbled in the last two playoff games where he disappeared.    He's had a bad foot all 3 seasons.........so yeah, it's an excuse at that point.   I agree he is critical to their SB chances.    They need to find a way to get back to Gabe running wide open deep because he overwhelmed some teams 3rd or 4th CB.   

4 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I do hope Beane strongly considers acquiring a WR before the trade deadline if Gabe hasn't noticeably improved from last year 

Who knows, maybe someone becomes available via cut or trade in the next few weeks 

The again, if Kincaid is an impact immediately (which seems at the very least possible)  then we're in pretty good shape

 

 

Yeah I think it's largely about Kincaid.    If he's ready to become the second target and he makes plays like we think he could............then that would allow the offense to stay on schedule and possibly change how teams defend the Bills outside receivers.

[Warcodered]

 

[Motorin']

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I think they have proven they need a player to fit in between Diggs and Davis as the #2 option.   I think people are unrealistic thinking that Gabe is just going to fix his bad hands overnight and get a tick faster.   He could become more consistent but I think he is who he is at this point.   Which is fine if he's the CLEAR 3rd option.    But when teams can put their CB1 on Gabe and the Bills can't take advantage of that by throwing at the nickel and dime coverage players......the players that Gabe used to face......and making them pay with big plays.........it's proven to make them more prone to mistakes on offense.

 

Another option may be to essentially  have four #3 receivers this year in the 60-70 target range, Gabe, Knox, Cook & Kincaid. 

 

With Diggs getting about 25% of the total targets, those four could get about 12% each, making the top 5 players account for around 75% of Allen's targets. 

 

Then you have Harty, Shakir, Harris, Sherfield get like 5% each... 

 

Looking at the Chiefs last year, they had a clear 1 in Kelce, 2 in Juju and then basically two #3's in MSV at 80 and McKinnon at 70 targets. 

 

So their top 4 guys accounted for 62% of total targets, though they did have four #5 option kind of guys with over 30 targets accounting for 5% of total targets each.  

 

Back to the point, the Bills top 5 could potentially outpace, or keep pace with the Chiefs top 5 in terms of overall contributions without needing any one receiver to be the defacto #2. Not sure if Cook and Kincaid are able to carry that load, but it would be nice...

 

What is pretty interesting though is the Chiefs #6, 7, 8, 9 & 10 options accounted for over 140 targets (22%) Whereas the Bills 6-10 accounted for 54 targets (9%). 

 

That's like getting a ton of quality  innings from the bull pen in additional to a higher performing #2. 

 

[JoPoy88]

On 7/28/2023 at 11:44 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

I don't think we trade him, but recent events make me wonder. By all reports sounds like Sherfield and Harty are flashing in camp. With Kincaid and Knox we're going to run more 12 personnel than at any point during the Allen era, making WRs more expendable.

 

And then we sign a recent 2nd round WR in Andy Isabella. I realize he's been a bust thus far, but why would Beane bother bringing him in if he thought our WR corps was set?

 

And that's where the guesswork comes into play...

 

I'm sure most view it as Shakir insurance based on his reportedly poor start to camp. I think that'd be financially kinda silly considering Shakir showed some potential in actual NFL games and he's one of only 2 or 3 (if Shorter makes the team) WRs still under contract after 2023.

 

Gabe Davis will get a contract next season likely (as of this moment at least) in the $10-$15 million range, and I think that's actually below (maybe well below) what he'll actually get. We all know Buffalo’s CAP situation and what we're already gonna be paying Diggs since there's no out on his contract for 3 or 4 years. 

 

$40+ million (conservatively) a year to 2 WRs?

 

And then there's this from the first few TC practices from Joe B's day 3 report at The Athletic:

 

Davis targeted minimally the last two practices

Following the Bills’ second day of practice, starting receiver Gabe Davis was quite candid about some of his physical and mental struggles during the 2022 season, stemming from an early-year high ankle sprain that wound up defining his output. He didn’t take the leap many were hoping for, but he remains very well thought of throughout the building. There’s no doubt Davis looks a lot smoother and more explosive on his routes than from when he was injured, but it hasn’t translated to much production through the early portion of camp. Of those 37 Allen pass attempts over the last two practices, Davis was only targeted in team drills twice. Both targets occurred on Friday, and to Davis’ credit, he brought in both for a shorter reception. Over the same span, Diggs (10), Trent Sherfield (6), Knox (5) and Kincaid (3) were all targeted more often by Allen. It could just be the start of camp and a feeling out process with Allen and Davis, or perhaps it’s a continuation of the lower target share Davis accrued during 2022. Either way, all eyes will be on the now-healthy Davis in a contract year.

 

I know this... we already have a lot of draft capital next year and Beane loves trading up. What do you think Gabe fetches? A 3rd? A 4th? I think we could at least get a 4th for him, which is where he was drafted. 

 

Then Big Baller Beane uses all those draft picks to get our next #1 in waiting in next year's draft...

 

Marvin Harrison Jr. anyone????

jesus. I thought you just had irrational attachments to players before. 
 

Now I know you’re just toying around in Madden and throwing s*** out there. Makes a lot more sense now honestly 

[BADOLBILZ]

16 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Another option may be to essentially  have four #3 receivers this year in the 60-70 target range, Gabe, Knox, Cook & Kincaid. 

 

With Diggs getting about 25% of the total targets, those four could get about 12% each, making the top 5 players account for around 75% of Allen's targets. 

 

Then you have Harty, Shakir, Harris, Sherfield get like 5% each... 

 

Looking at the Chiefs last year, they had a clear 1 in Kelce, 2 in Juju and then basically two #3's in MSV at 80 and McKinnon at 70 targets. 

 

So their top 4 guys accounted for 62% of total targets, though they did have four #5 option kind of guys with over 30 targets accounting for 5% of total targets each.  

 

Back to the point, the Bills top 5 could potentially outpace, or keep pace with the Chiefs top 5 in terms of overall contributions without needing any one receiver to be the defacto #2. Not sure if Cook and Kincaid are able to carry that load, but it would be nice...

 

What is pretty interesting though is the Chiefs #6, 7, 8, 9 & 10 options accounted for over 140 targets (22%) Whereas the Bills 6-10 accounted for 54 targets (9%). 

 

That's like getting a ton of quality  innings from the bull pen in additional to a higher performing #2. 

 

 

 

Yes, I think the Bills have basically resigned themselves to hoping to having Diggs and a bunch of (ideally)WR3's.

 

Not having two legit WR1 type weapons has just not gotten any team to the SB in the last half decade,   which is the known aspect of the discussion.

 

It's not that different than wondering if they could go to a base 4-1-6 defense and reach the SB.   Because no team has gone to a SB doing that either.   But it's conceivable if a team like the Bills........with better safeties than LB's.......decided to lean into their talent.    

 

The problem is that the NFL is all about matchups.

 

That's why teams with two WR1 options have that extra juice to reach and win SB's and others do not.

 

That's why teams with LB's who can cover have good defense's and those that don't are dead in the water.

 

Yes the Chiefs had a very deep WR corps last season.   They didn't have two top 5 targets in the entire league like when they had Kelce and Hill...........but Juju was a top 25 target in terms of both bulk stats and advanced stats.    And MVS was their version of what Gabe Davis provides the Bills........just further down the ladder where he can exploit matchups.  

 

But teams aren't going to stop putting CB1 on Gabe simply because they are confused by all of the Bills WR3 options.........one of the other 3's is probably going to have to ascend ABOVE Gabe to discourage the double-Diggs defense.   

 

Would it be good if the Bills 4-7 receiving options were as good as KC's?    Sure.   But you can't expect to compete with a team that puts top assets into the position when you do not.   The Chiefs had 3 first and second round picks in RESERVE at WR.    The Bills have a couple 5ths and some UDFA's.

Edited August 2, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Big Blitz]

10 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

 

[Motorin']

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes, I think the Bills have basically resigned themselves to hoping to having Diggs and a bunch of (ideally)WR3's.

 

Not having two legit WR1 type weapons has just has not gotten any team to the SB in the last half decade,   which is the known aspect of the discussion.

 

It's not that different than wondering if they could go to a base 4-1-6 defense and reach the SB.   Because no team has gone to a SB doing that either.   But it's conceivable if a team like the Bills........with better safeties than LB's.......decided to lean into their talent.    

 

The problem is that the NFL is all about matchups.

 

That's why teams with two WR1 options have that extra juice to reach and win SB's and others do not.

 

That's why teams with LB's who can cover have good defense's and those that don't are dead in the water.

 

Yes the Chiefs had a very deep WR corps last season.   They didn't have two top 5 targets in the entire league like when they had Kelce and Hill...........but Juju was a top 25 target in terms of both bulk stats and advanced stats.    And MVS was their version of what Gabe Davis provides the Bills........just further down the ladder where he can exploit matchups.  

 

But teams aren't going to stop putting CB1 on Gabe simply because they are confused by all of the Bills WR3 options.........one of the other 3's is probably going to have to ascend ABOVE Gabe to discourage the double-Diggs defense.   

 

Would it be good if the Bills 4-7 receiving options were as good as KC's?    Sure.   But you can't expect to compete with a team that puts top assets into the position when you do not.   The Chiefs had 3 first and second round picks in RESERVE at WR.    The Bills have a couple 5ths and some UDFA's.

 

Short of Knox (or Kincaid) rising to #2 level of production, I think there are ways to get the #1 cb off of Davis. By utilizing the TE and RB in the passing game effectively over the middle they could really punish teams for doubling Diggs with a S, and force them to go back to paying their #1 on Diggs.

 

I also think Knox could up his production from 65 to 80 targets, which I think he would have had last year if the pass protection didn't suck so bad that they needed him to stay in and pass block. 

 

 

[Eastport bills]

On 7/28/2023 at 11:44 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

I don't think we trade him, but recent events make me wonder. By all reports sounds like Sherfield and Harty are flashing in camp. With Kincaid and Knox we're going to run more 12 personnel than at any point during the Allen era, making WRs more expendable.

 

And then we sign a recent 2nd round WR in Andy Isabella. I realize he's been a bust thus far, but why would Beane bother bringing him in if he thought our WR corps was set?

 

And that's where the guesswork comes into play...

 

I'm sure most view it as Shakir insurance based on his reportedly poor start to camp. I think that'd be financially kinda silly considering Shakir showed some potential in actual NFL games and he's one of only 2 or 3 (if Shorter makes the team) WRs still under contract after 2023.

 

Gabe Davis will get a contract next season likely (as of this moment at least) in the $10-$15 million range, and I think that's actually below (maybe well below) what he'll actually get. We all know Buffalo’s CAP situation and what we're already gonna be paying Diggs since there's no out on his contract for 3 or 4 years. 

 

$40+ million (conservatively) a year to 2 WRs?

 

And then there's this from the first few TC practices from Joe B's day 3 report at The Athletic:

 

Davis targeted minimally the last two practices

Following the Bills’ second day of practice, starting receiver Gabe Davis was quite candid about some of his physical and mental struggles during the 2022 season, stemming from an early-year high ankle sprain that wound up defining his output. He didn’t take the leap many were hoping for, but he remains very well thought of throughout the building. There’s no doubt Davis looks a lot smoother and more explosive on his routes than from when he was injured, but it hasn’t translated to much production through the early portion of camp. Of those 37 Allen pass attempts over the last two practices, Davis was only targeted in team drills twice. Both targets occurred on Friday, and to Davis’ credit, he brought in both for a shorter reception. Over the same span, Diggs (10), Trent Sherfield (6), Knox (5) and Kincaid (3) were all targeted more often by Allen. It could just be the start of camp and a feeling out process with Allen and Davis, or perhaps it’s a continuation of the lower target share Davis accrued during 2022. Either way, all eyes will be on the now-healthy Davis in a contract year.

 

I know this... we already have a lot of draft capital next year and Beane loves trading up. What do you think Gabe fetches? A 3rd? A 4th? I think we could at least get a 4th for him, which is where he was drafted. 

 

Then Big Baller Beane uses all those draft picks to get our next #1 in waiting in next year's draft...

 

Marvin Harrison Jr. anyone????

Why would you question Gabe’s relevance in this offense after making suppositions related to 4 or 5 practices. The guy is a proven contributor and post season top statistical receiver. Is it that you feel a unproven Hardy or Sherfield should be ahead of Gabe on the depth chart? He will be a highly sought after receiver in FA. I see him being a crucial option in our passing.game and in his contract year, a big asset.

[without a drought]

Only if Da'Rick Rogers, Duke Williams, Brandon Reilly or Marcus Easley show up.

 

I put Kolby Listenbee on the PUP without checking, so I guess they can't count on him.

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Short of Knox (or Kincaid) rising to #2 level of production, I think there are ways to get the #1 cb off of Davis. By utilizing the TE and RB in the passing game effectively over the middle they could really punish teams for doubling Diggs with a S, and force them to go back to paying their #1 on Diggs.

 

I also think Knox could up his production from 65 to 80 targets, which I think he would have had last year if the pass protection didn't suck so bad that they needed him to stay in and pass block. 

 

 

 

Take advantage of what they are offering you. You want to double Diggs? We have different ways to hurt you and I’d love to see us using the TE’s and RBs efficiently. I remember Brady starting games with like 10 completions to 8 different players. It would drive me CRAZY! 

[Warcodered]

 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Short of Knox (or Kincaid) rising to #2 level of production, I think there are ways to get the #1 cb off of Davis. By utilizing the TE and RB in the passing game effectively over the middle they could really punish teams for doubling Diggs with a S, and force them to go back to paying their #1 on Diggs.

 

I also think Knox could up his production from 65 to 80 targets, which I think he would have had last year if the pass protection didn't suck so bad that they needed him to stay in and pass block. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, again, I think that's what the Bills are trying to do.

 

But it's also what opposing defense's want the Bills to do.