How long does it take an NFL head coach to reach his 1st Super Bowl?

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

Don't even bother man. The guy thinks that the cost of production is higher in 2023 than 1990 and won't be told otherwise. 

 

Yes, consider who is agreeing with you @oldmanfan. This poster, who agrees with you, can not grasp how inflation over the past 23 years has made the cost to print newspapers higher now (due to inflation of ink, salaries, paper, delivery vehicles, etc) now than in 1990.

 

Think about that and the brainiacs that agree with you. May be enough to make you realize some things.

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

This is such a stupid statistic. You really think the owner should base his decision making not on the performance of the coaching staff but on the past record of other coaches? 😂

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't even bother man. The guy thinks that the cost of production is higher in 2023 than 1990 and won't be told otherwise. How is he ever going to accept that he has bias towards our current HC without evidence despite his posting history knocking the HC consistently. 😂

It has nothing to do w the owner's decisions 

 

It's (arguably) relevant to a prediction about McDermott's chances re: winning a Super Bowl in Buffalo

[folz]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I know, it's how we support our arguments

 

Like I could go through McDermott's win% and ask how many other coaches lucked into one of the weakest divisions sans Brady or were saddled w bad owners or a bad GM or no QB or whatever...but that's reductive. As valid as your line of questioning but just noise imo. There are easy criticisms of every method we can use to judge...the merits of your argument have to rest in your competence in explaining yourself, not how many holes you think you're poking in the other guy's logic.

 

Just because you don't choose to accept the merits of someone else's argument, doesn't mean they haven't put forth an argument with merit (which I think has been done by many throughout this thread). There are many reasons for wanting to keep McD and thinking a SB is still possible:

 

Ended 17-year playoff drought

.639 overall win percentage (21st overall of all coaches who ever coached in the NFL)

3 AFC East titles

Playoff berth 5 out of 6 years (one with Tyrod Taylor as QB)

1 AFC Championship appearance

Great culture, great locker room/team camaraderie

Continuity of systems and personnel (not having to reboot with new schemes, new coaches, etc.)

Family atmosphere among team and between team and fans

Free agents want to come to Buffalo now

Players want to come back to Buffalo after they have left

McD brought Beane here

In turn, they brought Josh here

It was Sean's staff and culture that groomed Josh

Josh backs McD

This year's team is probably the deepest we've had since the 90s SB era

He moved on from Frasier

I cut him a lot of slack for how last year ended because I understand that a football team is made up of human beings who can only take so much at one time.

ETC.

 

And in earlier posts, I showed a list of many Head Coaches who have made and won a Super Bowl after their 6th year of coaching. (But apparently, the standard is now that he has to have had the same QB and be with the same team).

 

Sure, you too can poke holes in each of my arguments above, but don't act like McD supporters don't have a leg to stand on. Here's a stat to look up, how many coaches were fired after 4 consecutive 10 win seasons and a playoff berth each of those years? How many coaches were fired after a 3-year stretch with a 37-12 record, with the most recent season being 13-3/14-4?

 

You can hold on to the 5 year QB/HC stat, it just doesn't sway me to want to move on from McDermott, or make me believe it is impossible for him to win a SB.

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by folz

[What a Tuel]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

It has nothing to do w the owner's decisions 

 

It's (arguably) relevant to a prediction about McDermott's chances re: winning a Super Bowl in Buffalo

 

It has everything to do with the owner's decisions because you say there is value in considering this to determine McDermott's future value.

 

Either there is value in this statistic or there isn't. 

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes, consider who is agreeing with you @oldmanfan. This poster, who agrees with you, can not grasp how inflation over the past 23 years has made the cost to print newspapers higher now (due to inflation of ink, salaries, paper, delivery vehicles, etc) now than in 1990.

 

Think about that and the brainiacs that agree with you. May be enough to make you realize some things.

 

😂 I just can't even with you man. You made the claim, and you are SO SO big on proof from what I understand, so prove to me in the other thread that a newspaper costs more to produce 2023 than 1990 without quoting random commodity prices. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Just because you don't choose to accept the merits of someone else's argument, doesn't mean they haven't put forth an argument with merit (which I think has been done by many throughout this thread). There are many reasons for wanting to keep McD and thinking a SB is still possible:

 

Ended 17-year playoff drought

.639 overall win percentage (21st overall of all coaches who ever coached in the NFL)

3 AFC East titles

Playoff berth 5 out of 6 years (one with Tyrod Taylor as QB)

1 AFC Championship appearance

Great culture, great locker room/team camaraderie

Continuity of systems and personnel (not having to reboot with new schemes, new coaches, etc.)

Family atmosphere among team and between team and fans

Free agents want to come to Buffalo now

Players want to come back to Buffalo after they have left

McD brought Beane here

In turn, they brought Josh here

It was Sean's staff and culture that groomed Josh

Josh backs McD

This year's team is probably the deepest we've had since the 90s SB era

He moved on from Frasier

I cut him a lot of slack for how last year ended because I understand that a football team is made up of human beings who can only take so much at one time.

ETC.

 

And in earlier posts, I showed a list of many Head Coaches who have made and won a Super Bowl after their 6th year of coaching. (But now the standard is he has to have the same QB and be with the same team).

 

Sure, you too can poke holes in each of my arguments above, but don't act like McD supports don't have any leg to stand on. Here's a stat to look up, how many coaches were fired after 4 consecutive 10 win seasons and a playoff berth each of those years? How many coaches were fired after a 3-year stretch with a 37-12 record, with the most recent season being 13-3/14-4?

 

You can hold on to the 5 year QB/HC stat, it just doesn't sway me to want to move on from McDermott, or make me believe it is impossible for him to win a SB.

 

You must have missed the guy who keeps demanding a peer review, audit, and double blind study 

 

And the reason for being on the same team is because folks don't care if McDermott wins a Super Bowl for another team, we are Bills fans not Sean McDermott fans I assume

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 I just can't even with you man. You made the claim, and you are SO SO big on proof from what I understand, so prove to me in the other thread that a newspaper costs more to produce 2023 than 1990 without quoting random commodity prices.

 

You not understanding inflation has truly opened my eyes. Our public school system is a disaster.

 

[Mikie2times]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It has nothing to do w the owner's decisions 

 

It's (arguably) relevant to a prediction about McDermott's chances re: winning a Super Bowl in Buffalo

It would be interesting (maybe I will break it down eventually) to see the outcome of the coaches that weren't fired. Who they were and what was the nature of the situation. Also, is it first five seasons for both coach and player? I tend to agree that McDermott is starting to be on the wrong side of the odds, but it's still interesting to consider some coaches and the situations they found themselves in that almost ended this stat. 

 

John Madden- Started coaching in 1969 with Lamonica at QB. Stabler joined in 1970 starting in 1973. Made the playoff every year but 1971 and his final year coaching. Winning a Super Bowl in his 8th season as a head coach with 6 early playoff departures

 

Tony Dungy- He won it the 5th year and damn was it close. By that point he had 8 previous playoff departures. 

 

These guys have an interest to me in regards to the stat being discussed because both came within a fraction of that stat no longer existing (Madden might actually nullify it depending on the criteria you use). What is the common thread with both coaches? They played in the same era as a Dynasty. Madden couldn't overcome the Steelers. Dungy couldn't overcome the Patriots. Now we have to deal with the Chiefs. I think if we dig into the history of this stat and the ones that failed we will find a lot of teams that shouldn't have won. Teams that just matched up against other teams that were flat out better. Which maybe they look back at us one day and say the same thing. I sure as hell hope not. 

 

Full disclosure, I have no horse in this conversation. I like the discussion it brings. You have two passionate sides. Neither knows for sure. All we can do is discuss the history as many have. It's made for decent conversation.  

Edited July 10, 2023 by Mikie2times

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

It has everything to do with the owner's decisions because you say there is value in considering this to determine McDermott's future value.

 

Either there is value in this statistic or there isn't. 

 

😂 I just can't even with you man. You made the claim, and you are SO SO big on proof from what I understand, so prove to me in the other thread that a newspaper costs more to produce 2023 than 1990 without quoting random commodity prices. 

 

 

Not exactly or even necessarily 

 

Maybe the Pegulas are happy w a stable, relatively successful franchise and don't need a Super Bowl victory for validation as has been claimed by several posters. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

It would be interesting (maybe I will break it down eventually) to see the outcome of the coaches that weren't fired. Who they were and what was the nature of the situation. Also, is it first five seasons for both coach and player? I tend to agree that McDermott is starting to be on the wrong side of the odds, but it's still interesting to consider some coaches and the situations they found themselves in that almost ended this stat. 

 

John Madden- Started coaching in 1969 with Lamonica at QB. Stabler joined in 1970 starting in 1973. Made the playoff every year but 1971 and his final year coaching. Winning a Super Bowl in his 8th season as a head coach with 6 early playoff departures

 

Tony Dungy- He won it the 5th year and damn was it close. By that point he had 8 previous playoff departures. 

 

These guys have an interest to me in regards to the stat being discussed because both came within a fraction of that stat no longer existing (Madden might actually nullify it depending on the criteria you use). What is the common thread with both coaches? They played in the same era as a Dynasty. Madden couldn't overcome the Steelers. Dungy couldn't overcome the Patriots. Now have to deal with the Chiefs. I think if we dig into the history of this stat and the ones that failed we will find a lot of teams that shouldn't have won. Teams that just matched up against other teams that were flat out better. Which maybe they look back at us one day and say the same thing. I sure as hell hope not. 

 

Full disclosure, I have no horse in this conversation. I like the discussion it brings. You have two passionate sides. Neither knows for sure. All we can do is discuss the history as many have. It's made for decent conversation.  

The dynasty angle is probably relevant and I haven't looked into it👍👍

 

Tomlin/Roethlisberger got theirs the year Brady did his knee iirc

 

Maybe that's the fate of Allen/McDermott as well but they'd better hurry up is all in saying

 

 

[What a Tuel]

10 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You not understanding inflation has truly opened my eyes. Our public school system is a disaster.

 

 

Im not getting into it here. You already hijacked one thread with your poor understanding of inflation.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

Everything stat has external factors. But we (as humans) tend to only bring up those external factors when it suits us.

 

For example, why do we even mention INT totals for bad QB's? Weather, game plan, tipped passes, etc all are factors that could change this statistic. 

 

Another example is test scores. We  use standardized test scores to measure the performance of a student? After all, external factors such as socio-economic status, parental education levels, language barriers, quality of teaching, and even the student's health and nutrition can significantly affect these scores. That persons not dumb, they're just unhealthy!

 

And why blame weight gain on poor eating habits? Numerous other factors like metabolism, genetics, mental health, medications, and socioeconomic status also play a huge role. That person's not fat, they're just poor!

 

We can "external factor" our way out of every statistic to ever exist if we wanted to.

 

Sometimes those factors are relevant and sometimes they are not. Nothing anyone has said in this thread has even got close to demonstrating causation. 

 

None of the other examples given are anything like the example we are talking about. Because in all those other cases people have been able to look at the pattern, investigate the commonalities and ascertain the extent to which there is a causation. Whereas nobody has provided any such analysis here. 

6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

It’s particular important because it tells us owners have a short leash on HC’s once the team has a franchise QB. 
 

That’s the history. That’s why the stat exists.

 

If more franchises were run like Philly when Reid was there and given 14 seasons with 10 consecutive seasons with McMabb as the starting QB (despite no Super Bowl victory anyway) we would likely have a handful of HC/QB combos with rings well past season 5 together. 

 

But Reid and McNabb were a very rare combo that stayed together for a long time. And still they never got their ring. 
 

Elway and Dan Reeves may have won a ring together eventually if they were together for all of Elway’s 16 seasons. 
 

As it was, they lasted 10 seasons together just like McNabb and Reid. 
 

I think McDermott and Allen are likely to follow the Reeves and Reid model and last 10 seasons together even without a ring. But staying together that long is often the exception. Would be hard to think McDermott’s seat would not be on fire come season 8 and 9. 
 

The key will be staying competitive in the postseason. Got to get back to a conference championship game again in at least one of the next three seasons I think to keep his seat cool.
 

 

The causation is simply the tendency for owners to become impatient. 
 

I agree, simply year to year the Bills or any other team have as good a chance to win the Super Bowl as any other year. 
 

What increases as the years go by is the chance the owner / GM pulls the plug.

 

Extreme patience seems to be about 10 years and even in those rare examples the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl was unsuccessful.

 

So I agree with that. Unfortunately that isn't causation either. 

 

And what Reid and Reeves have in common is they were fired after missing the playoffs. In Reid's case his final 2 years and in Reeves' case 3 of his final 5. If McDermott did that he'd be fired. No doubt. But in neither of those cases did patience just expire. In both the results took a significant donwturn. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

What data supports that McDermott is a good in-game strategist?

 

It was posted in a thread the other day. His 4th down decision making in terms of impact above expected on results he was *I think* 6th in the NFL and one of only a handful who was in the positive on that metric. Maybe someone else will remember where exactly it was posted.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, folz said:

And in earlier posts, I showed a list of many Head Coaches who have made and won a Super Bowl after their 6th year of coaching. (But apparently, the standard is now that he has to have had the same QB and be with the same team).

 

 

Allen is not going anywhere until he decides to retire and McDermott winning a Super Bowl with another team doesn't help the Bills any so that actually makes a ton of sense.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens with Taylor and Burrow. They have two years to win before the end of year number 5. You would think between Allen and McDermott and Burrow and Taylor one of them will snap the 5+year streak. 

[GoBills808]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was posted in a thread the other day. His 4th down decision making in terms of impact above expected on results he was *I think* 6th in the NFL and one of only a handful who was in the positive on that metric. Maybe someone else will remember where exactly it was posted.

If I was inclined to argue like you guys do it would be very easy to point out how hypocritical it is to claim one single data point regarding 4th down EV is proof Sean McDermott is a good in-game coach😂😂

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, folz said:

Sure, you too can poke holes in each of my arguments above, but don't act like McD supporters don't have a leg to stand on. Here's a stat to look up, how many coaches were fired after 4 consecutive 10 win seasons and a playoff berth each of those years? How many coaches were fired after a 3-year stretch with a 37-12 record, with the most recent season being 13-3/14-4?

 

The Broncos fired John Fox in 2015 after three consecutive division titles going 13-3, 13-3, 12-4 respectively (good for 38-10 over a 3-year stretch) but being under .500 in the postseason. Guess what happened the very next season lol

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

If I was inclined to argue like you guys do it would be very easy to point out how hypocritical it is to claim one single data point regarding 4th down EV is proof Sean McDermott is a good in-game coach😂😂

 

But might be proof that he isn't "terrible at it" which was the point I was disagreeing with. 

[wakingfane]

I am a huge McDermott fan but this thread does actually make me concerned / raise the eyebrows a bit.  I would be interested to factor in each coach's win loss record up to the year they made the Super Bowl as well. And who are the highest win loss percentage coach's who NEVER actually made the Super Bowl. Just based on name and reputation, would you fire them too?? Sure, every case is individual and unique and there's always an anomaly to the trend, but seriously, just look at the company McD is in within this chart and it's not inspiring.  

[hondo in seattle]

Years ago, a new coach was hired for an ailing basketball program.  The coach quickly turned the team around and got them into the playoffs.  Unfortunately, he seemed to have no knack for playoff competition.  His team was consistently outcoached and outplayed when it became win-or-go-home.  Although the team was winning more regular season games than before, some fans wanted the coach fired.  The goal wasn't a playoff appearance.  The goal was a championship and the coach wasn't delivering one.  They had waited 15 years with this clown.  If he was going to win a championship, he would have won one by now.  Time for a change, they said.

 

Well, Coach Wooden finally gave them a championship.   In fact, he gave them 10 national championships in a period of 12 years.  Happily, the UCLA AD hadn't listened to the fans who had wanted Wooden's head.

 

To win a Lombardi, you need a good roster and you need a good coach.  But you need the stars to align, too.  Because there are variables outside the coach's control, there is no one path for coaches to get to the championship.  There are guys like Pederson who won the Super Bowl in his 2nd year as a head coach and then fell into sustained mediocrity.  And then there are guys like Andy Reid, who didn't win the Lombardi till his 21st season but has won twice now.  

 

 

[Chaos]

On 7/9/2023 at 10:16 PM, folz said:

 

Just because you don't choose to accept the merits of someone else's argument, doesn't mean they haven't put forth an argument with merit (which I think has been done by many throughout this thread). There are many reasons for wanting to keep McD and thinking a SB is still possible:

 

Ended 17-year playoff drought

.639 overall win percentage (21st overall of all coaches who ever coached in the NFL)

3 AFC East titles

Playoff berth 5 out of 6 years (one with Tyrod Taylor as QB)

1 AFC Championship appearance

Great culture, great locker room/team camaraderie

Continuity of systems and personnel (not having to reboot with new schemes, new coaches, etc.)

Family atmosphere among team and between team and fans

Free agents want to come to Buffalo now

Players want to come back to Buffalo after they have left

McD brought Beane here

In turn, they brought Josh here

It was Sean's staff and culture that groomed Josh

Josh backs McD

This year's team is probably the deepest we've had since the 90s SB era

He moved on from Frasier

I cut him a lot of slack for how last year ended because I understand that a football team is made up of human beings who can only take so much at one time.

ETC.

 

And in earlier posts, I showed a list of many Head Coaches who have made and won a Super Bowl after their 6th year of coaching. (But apparently, the standard is now that he has to have had the same QB and be with the same team).

 

Sure, you too can poke holes in each of my arguments above, but don't act like McD supporters don't have a leg to stand on. Here's a stat to look up, how many coaches were fired after 4 consecutive 10 win seasons and a playoff berth each of those years? How many coaches were fired after a 3-year stretch with a 37-12 record, with the most recent season being 13-3/14-4?

 

You can hold on to the 5 year QB/HC stat, it just doesn't sway me to want to move on from McDermott, or make me believe it is impossible for him to win a SB.

 

McDermott took over a Bills team that went 8-8 in 2015 and 7-9 in 2016 and went 9-7 in 2017.   Then he got Josh Allen.   Some people seem to think he took a team that was winless and then went on a deep playoff run with Tyrod Taylor.  Reality is he was one win better his first season than Rex Ryan was his first season with the Bills 

[Nextmanup]

12 hours ago, Chaos said:

McDermott took over a Bills team that went 8-8 in 2015 and 7-9 in 2016 and went 9-7 in 2017.   Then he got Josh Allen.   Some people seem to think he took a team that was winless and then went on a deep playoff run with Tyrod Taylor.  Reality is he was one win better his first season than Rex Ryan was his first season with the Bills 

This is a point I've made here several times.

 

I am NOT one of the many here who seems to think BB stinks, now that NE is not what it was with Brady.  I think it's obvious he's still the best HC of all time.  And yet look at what he can do without an elite QB.  Not much.

 

That may sound like a defense of McDermott, which I don't really mean it to be.  But folks who somehow assume he is an elite HC b/c he  seems organized, prepared, and has everyone on the same page are mistaken.

 

IMO he belongs in a position within the organization slightly different than "sideline game day boss".  That's what he is not very good at.  He should be "strategic planner and team organizer" with responsibilities that are cut out of the traditional HC position.

 

Or something like that.  HCs in the NFL now actually have about 9 job descriptions they have to do, and the game has evolved to be way too complicated for 1 guy to do all of it.

 

The HC position should be divided into 2 if not 3 positions.

 

 

 

 

[folz]

On 7/10/2023 at 9:06 PM, wakingfane said:

I am a huge McDermott fan but this thread does actually make me concerned / raise the eyebrows a bit.  I would be interested to factor in each coach's win loss record up to the year they made the Super Bowl as well. And who are the highest win loss percentage coach's who NEVER actually made the Super Bowl. Just based on name and reputation, would you fire them too?? Sure, every case is individual and unique and there's always an anomaly to the trend, but seriously, just look at the company McD is in within this chart and it's not inspiring.  

 

I'm not sure if I totally understand what question(s) you are asking and why, but...

 

Here are the coaches with the highest win% with no Super Bowl appearances

(including only HCs with all, or the majority of their career in the SB era; active coaches in purple):

 

Matt LaFleur (4 yrs): .712 

Blanton Collier (8 yrs): .691 

Sean McDermott (6 yrs): .639 

Marty Shottenheimer (21 yrs): .613

Mike Sherman (6 yrs): .594

Mike Smith (7 yrs): .589

Mike Vrabel (5yrs): .585

Don Coryell (14 yrs): .572 

Wade Phillips (12 yrs): .562

Mike Zimmer (8 yrs): .562

Jason Garrett (10 yrs): .559

Chuck Knox (22 yrs): .558

Joe Schmidt (6 yrs): .558

Chuck Pagano (6 yrs): .552

Frank Reich (5 yrs): .547

Jerry Burns (6 yrs): .547

Dennis Green (13 yrs): .546

Jim Mora (15 yrs): .541

Chuck Fairbanks (6 yrs): .541

Jack Pardee (11 yrs): .530

Brad Childress (5 yrs): .527

John Robinson (9 yrs): .524

Matt Nagy (4 yrs): .523

Bill O'Brien (7 yrs): .520

Kevin Stefanski (3 yrs): .520

Art Shell (5 yrs): .519

Ron Meyer (9 yrs): .519

Marvin Lewis (16 yrs): .518

Steve Mariucci (9 yrs): .518

Bum Phillips (11 yrs): .516

 

 

Here are the records/winning percentages, for NFL Head Coaches who made more than one SB, prior to their first SB appearance (there are 35 other guys who made it to a single SB, but I didn't have the time/energy to include all of them---but this should at least give you an idea of whatever you were looking for):

 

[I did not include the four coaches who started coaching well before the Super Bowl era. McDermott is 62-35 .639 for reference.]

McVay 11-5 .688

Cowher 32-16 .666

Reid 51-29 .654

Tomlin 10-6 .625

Reeves 45-28 .616

Holmgren 38-26 .594

Flores 9-7 .563

Shanahan 29-23 .558

Coughlin 93-83 .528

Carroll 58-54 .518

Gibbs 8-8 .500

Johnson 29-29 .500

Vermeil 29-31 .483

Levy 61-66 .480

Noll 33-37  .471

Parcells 22-25 .468

Belichick 45-55 .450

Grant 11-14 .440

Fox 7-9 .438

Walsh 8-24 .250

 

 

Not sure if this adds up to anything---you'll have to tell me WF. But I had fun crunching the numbers for you.

 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by folz

[hondo in seattle]

15 hours ago, folz said:

 

 

 

Nice work!

 

Random thoughts...

 

Blanton Collier being listed as a non-winner is a little misleading.  He won the NFL championship with the Browns in 1964, before there was a Super Bowl.  Had there been a SB that year, the Browns would have been heavy favorites.  

 

Marty Shottenheimer is a sad story.  21 years at .631 - you'd think he'd have at least one trophy to his name.  

 

Don Coryell win percentage was good but not fabulous: .572.  But he would probably be in HOF if he had picked up a Lombardi in his 12 years.  Still belongs in Canton because of his contributions to the passing game.  

 

Chuck Knox has the 10th most wins in NFL history.  As Buffalo luck would have it, none of those wins was a SB.  

[folz]

39 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Nice work!

 

Random thoughts...

 

Blanton Collier being listed as a non-winner is a little misleading.  He won the NFL championship with the Browns in 1964, before there was a Super Bowl.  Had there been a SB that year, the Browns would have been heavy favorites.  

 

Marty Shottenheimer is a sad story.  21 years at .631 - you'd think he'd have at least one trophy to his name.  

 

Don Coryell win percentage was good but not fabulous: .572.  But he would probably be in HOF if he had picked up a Lombardi in his 12 years.  Still belongs in Canton because of his contributions to the passing game.  

 

Chuck Knox has the 10th most wins in NFL history.  As Buffalo luck would have it, none of those wins was a SB.  

 

Yeah, I shouldn't have included Blanton Collier. Good catch.

 

Agree on Coryell. Should be in the HOF regardless of no ring.

 

If Chuck Knox didn't return to the Rams for those last 3 years, he'd still be 13th overall in wins, have a .600 career win %, and in 19 years---13 winning seasons and 11 playoff berths. Great coach, but his 7-11 playoff record hurt him.

[Chaos]

17 hours ago, folz said:

Matt LaFleur (4 yrs): .712 

Blanton Collier (8 yrs): .691 

Sean McDermott (6 yrs): .639 

Marty Shottenheimer (21 yrs): .613

Mike Sherman (6 yrs): .594

Mike Smith (7 yrs): .589

Mike Vrabel (5yrs): .585

Don Coryell (14 yrs): .572 

Wade Phillips (12 yrs): .562

Mike Zimmer (8 yrs): .562

Jason Garrett (10 yrs): .559

Chuck Knox (22 yrs): .558

Joe Schmidt (6 yrs): .558

Chuck Pagano (6 yrs): .552

Frank Reich (5 yrs): .547

Jerry Burns (6 yrs): .547

Dennis Green (13 yrs): .546

Jim Mora (15 yrs): .541

Chuck Fairbanks (6 yrs): .541

Jack Pardee (11 yrs): .530

Brad Childress (5 yrs): .527

John Robinson (9 yrs): .524

Matt Nagy (4 yrs): .523

Bill O'Brien (7 yrs): .520

Kevin Stefanski (3 yrs): .520

Art Shell (5 yrs): .519

Ron Meyer (9 yrs): .519

Marvin Lewis (16 yrs): .518

Steve Mariucci (9 yrs): .518

Bum Phillips (11 yrs): .516

Only one of these guys had a future HOF QB on their team for at least 5 seasons. 

[folz]

7 hours ago, Chaos said:

Only one of these guys had a future HOF QB on their team for at least 5 seasons. 

 

You guys continue to try and set parameters to fit what you want to prove (and yet there are still a couple of exceptions to your statement---see below).

 

And sure, some of the guys on that list didn't have great luck with QBs (not every head coach does---especially on a list of guys who didn't make a SB), but let's not pretend that none of them had anything to work with at QB:

 

Mike Sherman had Brett Favre (HOF) for 6 years

Don Coryell had Dan Fouts (HOF) for 9 years

Matt LaFleur had Aaron Rodgers (*HOF) for 4 years

Chuck Pagano had Andrew Luck for 5 years

Jim Mora had Peyton Manning (HOF) for 4 years

Jack Pardee had Joe Thiesman (HOF) for 3 years and Warren Moon (HOF) for 4 years

Marty Shottenheimer had Bernie Kosar for 4 years, Joe Montana (HOF) for 2 years, Drew Brees (*HOF) for 4 years, and Philip Rivers for 1 year

Steve Mariucci had Steve Young (HOF) for 3 years and Jeff Garcia for 5 years

Dennis Green had Warren Moon (HOF) for 3 years and Kurt Warner for 2 years

Chuck Knox had Dave Krieg for 8 years and Joe Ferguson for 3 years

Marvin Lewis had Jon Kitna 2 years, Carson Palmer 7 years, and Andy Dalton for 8 years

Bum Philips had Archie Manning 1 year, Dan Pastorini for 5 years, and Ken Stabler for 3 years.

Wade Philips had John Elway (HOF) for 2 years and Tony Romo for 4 years

Mike Smith had Matt Ryan for 7 years

Jason Garrett had Tony Romo for 6 years and Dak Prescott for 4 years

 

*Future Hall of Famer

 

Obviously not all of those QBs equate to Josh. But then posters like you always seem to forget how raw Josh was coming into the league too. His first two years were seriously on the job training. It wasn't 5 years of automatic HOF QBing from Josh for McDermott. Really, isn't 3-4 years of a HOF QB in their prime just as good (or better) than 5 years of Josh, when you weigh in his first two seasons? He wasn't bad, but how could you equate his rookie year to say Brett Favre's 10th year in the league, or Warren Moon's 12th year, or Joe Montana's...etc.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 hours ago, folz said:

 

You guys continue to try and set parameters to fit what you want to prove (and yet there are still a couple of exceptions to your statement---see below).

 

And sure, some of the guys on that list didn't have great luck with QBs (not every head coach does---especially on a list of guys who didn't make a SB), but let's not pretend that none of them had anything to work with at QB:

 

Mike Sherman had Brett Favre (HOF) for 6 years

Don Coryell had Dan Fouts (HOF) for 9 years

Matt LaFleur had Aaron Rodgers (*HOF) for 4 years

Chuck Pagano had Andrew Luck for 5 years

Jim Mora had Peyton Manning (HOF) for 4 years

Jack Pardee had Joe Thiesman (HOF) for 3 years and Warren Moon (HOF) for 4 years

Marty Shottenheimer had Bernie Kosar for 4 years, Joe Montana (HOF) for 2 years, Drew Brees (*HOF) for 4 years, and Philip Rivers for 1 year

Steve Mariucci had Steve Young (HOF) for 3 years and Jeff Garcia for 5 years

Dennis Green had Warren Moon (HOF) for 3 years and Kurt Warner for 2 years

Chuck Knox had Dave Krieg for 8 years and Joe Ferguson for 3 years

Marvin Lewis had Jon Kitna 2 years, Carson Palmer 7 years, and Andy Dalton for 8 years

Bum Philips had Archie Manning 1 year, Dan Pastorini for 5 years, and Ken Stabler for 3 years.

Wade Philips had John Elway (HOF) for 2 years and Tony Romo for 4 years

Mike Smith had Matt Ryan for 7 years

Jason Garrett had Tony Romo for 6 years and Dak Prescott for 4 years

 

*Future Hall of Famer

 

Obviously not all of those QBs equate to Josh. But then posters like you always seem to forget how raw Josh was coming into the league too. His first two years were seriously on the job training. It wasn't 5 years of automatic HOF QBing from Josh for McDermott. Really, isn't 3-4 years of a HOF QB in their prime just as good (or better) than 5 years of Josh, when you weigh in his first two seasons? He wasn't bad, but how could you equate his rookie year to say Brett Favre's 10th year in the league, or Warren Moon's 12th year, or Joe Montana's...etc.

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

18 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Nice work!

 

Random thoughts...

 

Blanton Collier being listed as a non-winner is a little misleading.  He won the NFL championship with the Browns in 1964, before there was a Super Bowl.  Had there been a SB that year, the Browns would have been heavy favorites.  

 

 

Yes, the Browns would have been heavy favorites, but the Bills may actually have won that Super Bowl.  Their defense was outstanding that year, nand the Bills had the second best running in pro football.  

 

It would have been an interesting matchup. 

[machine gun kelly]

On 6/24/2023 at 4:40 PM, MJS said:

McDermott hasn't had even one down year unless you want to count Allen's rookie season.

And that was to rebuild the team cutting bloated contract players.   They were textbook, win by the skin of you’re teeth,  reduce, restructure, release players, find you’re franchise QB, build lines on both sides of the ball, and then create depth.

[machine gun kelly]

On 6/24/2023 at 4:40 PM, MJS said:

McDermott hasn't had even one down year unless you want to count Allen's rookie season.

Yep, he and Beane scraped into the playoffs with a mediocre team.  Purges bad contracts and slowly built the team up the right way. 
 

Get your franchise QB, build up your lines, focus on weapons and add depth.  62 and 29 I think a lot of fan bases would take.

 

That doesn’t mean I’m not thinking we’ve got to get closer to winning the AFCCG, and shal I whisper it win it all.  31 teams are disappointed every year.

[Chaos]

9 hours ago, folz said:

 

You guys continue to try and set parameters to fit what you want to prove (and yet there are still a couple of exceptions to your statement---see below).

 

And sure, some of the guys on that list didn't have great luck with QBs (not every head coach does---especially on a list of guys who didn't make a SB), but let's not pretend that none of them had anything to work with at QB:

 

Mike Sherman had Brett Favre (HOF) for 6 years

Don Coryell had Dan Fouts (HOF) for 9 years

Matt LaFleur had Aaron Rodgers (*HOF) for 4 years

Chuck Pagano had Andrew Luck for 5 years

Jim Mora had Peyton Manning (HOF) for 4 years

Jack Pardee had Joe Thiesman (HOF) for 3 years and Warren Moon (HOF) for 4 years

Marty Shottenheimer had Bernie Kosar for 4 years, Joe Montana (HOF) for 2 years, Drew Brees (*HOF) for 4 years, and Philip Rivers for 1 year

Steve Mariucci had Steve Young (HOF) for 3 years and Jeff Garcia for 5 years

Dennis Green had Warren Moon (HOF) for 3 years and Kurt Warner for 2 years

Chuck Knox had Dave Krieg for 8 years and Joe Ferguson for 3 years

Marvin Lewis had Jon Kitna 2 years, Carson Palmer 7 years, and Andy Dalton for 8 years

Bum Philips had Archie Manning 1 year, Dan Pastorini for 5 years, and Ken Stabler for 3 years.

Wade Philips had John Elway (HOF) for 2 years and Tony Romo for 4 years

Mike Smith had Matt Ryan for 7 years

Jason Garrett had Tony Romo for 6 years and Dak Prescott for 4 years

 

*Future Hall of Famer

 

Obviously not all of those QBs equate to Josh. But then posters like you always seem to forget how raw Josh was coming into the league too. His first two years were seriously on the job training. It wasn't 5 years of automatic HOF QBing from Josh for McDermott. Really, isn't 3-4 years of a HOF QB in their prime just as good (or better) than 5 years of Josh, when you weigh in his first two seasons? He wasn't bad, but how could you equate his rookie year to say Brett Favre's 10th year in the league, or Warren Moon's 12th year, or Joe Montana's...etc.

 

 

I concede and am willing to consider McDermott on the same level as Mike Sherman and Coryell

[Royale with Cheese]

On 7/11/2023 at 9:08 PM, Chaos said:

McDermott took over a Bills team that went 8-8 in 2015 and 7-9 in 2016 and went 9-7 in 2017.   Then he got Josh Allen.   Some people seem to think he took a team that was winless and then went on a deep playoff run with Tyrod Taylor.  Reality is he was one win better his first season than Rex Ryan was his first season with the Bills 

 

No one thinks that because we know we lost in the 1st round that year.

 

Reality is that this comparison or whatever it is doesn't mean much.  

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

On 7/12/2023 at 2:08 AM, Chaos said:

McDermott took over a Bills team that went 8-8 in 2015 and 7-9 in 2016 and went 9-7 in 2017.   Then he got Josh Allen.   Some people seem to think he took a team that was winless and then went on a deep playoff run with Tyrod Taylor.  Reality is he was one win better his first season than Rex Ryan was his first season with the Bills 

 

The 2017 roster was not the 2015 roster though. The 2015 roster QB apart is one of the strongest the Bills have had. 

[Gregg]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Yep, he and Beane scraped into the playoffs with a mediocre team.  Purges bad contracts and slowly built the team up the right way. 
 

Get your franchise QB, build up your lines, focus on weapons and add depth.  62 and 29 I think a lot of fan bases would take.

 

That doesn’t mean I’m not thinking we’ve got to get closer to winning the AFCCG, and shal I whisper it win it all.  31 teams are disappointed every year.

 

Still waiting for Beane and McDermott to do this. Hopefully this year shows improvement but so far it hasn't been good. Granted the Miller injury did hurt the DL. The OL has been a disaster. 

[GoBills808]

Sean McDermott has a very good win% in the regular season

 

this is not news

[Augie]

10 hours ago, folz said:

 

You guys continue to try and set parameters to fit what you want to prove (and yet there are still a couple of exceptions to your statement---see below).

 

And sure, some of the guys on that list didn't have great luck with QBs (not every head coach does---especially on a list of guys who didn't make a SB), but let's not pretend that none of them had anything to work with at QB:

 

Mike Sherman had Brett Favre (HOF) for 6 years

Don Coryell had Dan Fouts (HOF) for 9 years

Matt LaFleur had Aaron Rodgers (*HOF) for 4 years

Chuck Pagano had Andrew Luck for 5 years

Jim Mora had Peyton Manning (HOF) for 4 years

Jack Pardee had Joe Thiesman (HOF) for 3 years and Warren Moon (HOF) for 4 years

Marty Shottenheimer had Bernie Kosar for 4 years, Joe Montana (HOF) for 2 years, Drew Brees (*HOF) for 4 years, and Philip Rivers for 1 year

Steve Mariucci had Steve Young (HOF) for 3 years and Jeff Garcia for 5 years

Dennis Green had Warren Moon (HOF) for 3 years and Kurt Warner for 2 years

Chuck Knox had Dave Krieg for 8 years and Joe Ferguson for 3 years

Marvin Lewis had Jon Kitna 2 years, Carson Palmer 7 years, and Andy Dalton for 8 years

Bum Philips had Archie Manning 1 year, Dan Pastorini for 5 years, and Ken Stabler for 3 years.

Wade Philips had John Elway (HOF) for 2 years and Tony Romo for 4 years

Mike Smith had Matt Ryan for 7 years

Jason Garrett had Tony Romo for 6 years and Dak Prescott for 4 years

 

*Future Hall of Famer

 

Obviously not all of those QBs equate to Josh. But then posters like you always seem to forget how raw Josh was coming into the league too. His first two years were seriously on the job training. It wasn't 5 years of automatic HOF QBing from Josh for McDermott. Really, isn't 3-4 years of a HOF QB in their prime just as good (or better) than 5 years of Josh, when you weigh in his first two seasons? He wasn't bad, but how could you equate his rookie year to say Brett Favre's 10th year in the league, or Warren Moon's 12th year, or Joe Montana's...etc.

 

 

 

People (some, at least) don’t want to give McD credit for anything the Bills do with Josh. “He’s got a franchise QB doing all the heavy lifting!”  Does anyone get credit for identifying the potential of a SUPER RAW prospect, then developing a staff and QB (and the REST of the team) to get to that level of success? I’m sure there are QB’s who had a ton of talent, but never reached that upper level. 

 

It’s a whole bunch of things that get you to the pinnacle - but if it doesn’t support the “McD just wins because of Josh” narrative it just gets ignored or we have to go looking for the goalposts again! 

 

.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Augie

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

People (some, at least) don’t want to give McD credit for anything the Bills do with Josh. “He’s got a franchise QB doing all the heavy lifting!”  Does anyone get credit for identifying the potential of a SUPER RAW prospect, then developing a staff and QB (and the REST of the team) to get to that level of success? I’m sure there are QB’s who had a ton of talent, but never reached that upper level. 

 

It’s a whole bunch of things that get you to the pinnacle - but if it doesn’t support the “McD just wins because of Josh” narrative it just gets ignored or we have to go looking for the goalposts again! 

 

.

Speaking of moving the goal posts

 

did you just try to give McDermott credit for drafting Allen 😂😂😂

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, the Browns would have been heavy favorites, but the Bills may actually have won that Super Bowl.  Their defense was outstanding that year, nand the Bills had the second best running in pro football.  

 

It would have been an interesting matchup. 

 

I agree.  That's why I didn't say the Browns would have surely won.   The Bills had a chance.  

 

I remember Larry Felser saying Cookie in his prime was as good as Jim Brown.  And the Bills' incredible run D would have slowed Brown down if they had played.  

 

If only the Super Bowl had started two years earlier - we would have had two appearances and maybe a championship to show for it.  And maybe an early SB victory would have changed the trajectory of the franchise.  

[Augie]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Speaking of moving the goal posts

 

did you just try to give McDermott credit for drafting Allen 😂😂😂

 

Speaking of missing the point, it’s a whole bunch of things, and McD is one. He arrived in 2017, with josh drafted in 2018. So YES, he was A PART of drafting Allen. But I don’t like to put all the credit or all the blame in one place, because that would be ignorant and simple minded. It’s not that easy or simple. 

 

NOW, go back and count how many times the parameters have changed since this silly thread was started. One correct answer would be “plenty”. A better answer would be “too many.”  This is sports, people. It is not a math equation. The entire premise from the beginning was biased, and that has been proven over and over. 

 

 

.

 

 

.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Augie

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Speaking of missing the point, it’s a whole bunch of things, and McD is one. He arrived in 2017, with josh drafted in 2018. So yes, he was A PART of that. But I don’t like to put all the credit or all the blame in one place, because that would be ignorant and simple minded. It’s not that easy or simple. 

 

NOW, go back and count how many times the parameters have changed since this silly thread was started. One correct answer would be “plenty”. This is sports, people. It is not a math equation. The entire premise from the beginning was biased, and that has been proven over and over. 

 

 

.

 

 

.

is it my ignorance and simplemindedness or do i distinctly remember Sean McDermott naming Nathan Peterman starter over Josh Allen lol

 

but yes we must always try to give credit where it's due

[Augie]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

is it my ignorance and simplemindedness or do i distinctly remember Sean McDermott naming Nathan Peterman starter over Josh Allen lol

 

but yes we must always try to give credit where it's due

 

As badly as that turned out, I had no problem with it at the time, and I still don’t. Sure, it always looks clear with the benefit of your 20/20 hindsight.  Is he the first or only HC who tried to protect a rookie QB coming into the league, especially one with such raw skills. This was pretty much SOP for ages, and still exists in some situations. You realize that, right? 

 

IF McD had started him from day 1, maybe he’s not the player he is today. Maybe he deserves credit for that? I’m not arguing that, just saying we’ll never know, and that includes you. I try to be fair and balanced, some have an agenda and try to twist everything to fit that. 

 

.