Ed Oliver big extension

[pocoboy]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

That really never entered my mind. I completely disagree and I think it was likely sacarim. 

 

 

It was mildly sardonic, but there comes a point where someone must "play the hand they've been dealt" (or dealt themselves, in this case). I think I'd characterize JA17's 2022-23 season as volatile - there were some intense highs and lows, plenty of good stuff, but a few too many times like the fumble vs Minnesota. I think it's fair to say that Josh's performance year over year is the biggest contributor to their success or failure. I guess Beane will be hoping that settling Oliver's mind about the next several years will have the opposite effect of, say, Albert Haynesworth.

[Green Lightning]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I have had my complaints about Oliver but we aren't paying him anywhere near a top level DT.  

After this year, he will be around the 20th highest paid DT.  His contract is at the correct level IMO.

 

Every great team has a few elite players, good players, solid players, below average and bad players.

Ed is a solid player.  You can't have elite and good players at every position in a salary cap league.

I don't disagree with you on that.  I just don't thing EO is worth extending. His zero tackle performance against Cincy's second string OL really cemented it for me. He gets pushed around.

[John from Riverside]

40 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Really?  You're asking that question?  Ok, I'll pretend you're not a simpleton and answer.  The goal is to build an organization that consistently wins games, makes the playoffs, and is regularly in the conversation of competing for a championship.  Beane and McDermott have passed that test with flying colors.

 

One out of 32 teams wins a Super Bowl each year.

 

Eball you got to understand

we have some fans on this for the think that it’s easy to win a championship that winning the division is just something that we do every year. We’re not sure if they were around for the decade plus of losing after the four Super Bowls.

 

We have some very entitled fans

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Green Lightning said:

I don't disagree with you on that.  I just don't thing EO is worth extending. His zero tackle performance against Cincy's second string OL really cemented it for me. He gets pushed around.

 

Our entire team played terribly that day.  Our offense couldn't move the ball.  Our defense couldn't stop anything.

We scored 10 points.

This postseason, Allen was poor.  In our two playoff games, Allen had 3 INT's and 3 fumbles.  

 

I would watch this.

 

 

[Green Lightning]

19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Our entire team played terribly that day.  Our offense couldn't move the ball.  Our defense couldn't stop anything.

We scored 10 points.

This postseason, Allen was poor.  In our two playoff games, Allen had 3 INT's and 3 fumbles.  

 

I would watch this.

 

 

As I said. I hope to be wrong about him. Maybe Poona and a healthy Daquan will allow him to penetrate. I just would have waited to extend him. 

[The Frankish Reich]

49 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Someone better than serviceable.  No need to sign him now. We signed 2 solid starting one techs for less than EO. If he could actually sack a QB without getting swallowed up by average OLs, $15 mil would be a bargain.

Ed Oliver is better than "serviceable." In a vacuum, this contract is, of course, fair value for a DT of his solidly above-average performance and age.

I think most people here are reacting to the fact that Beane isn't constructing a team in a vacuum; he has to decide how to allocate contracts to various players playing various positions within a fairly rigid cap structure. And that's why I really have nothing bad to say about Ed Oliver - nice player, congrats on the new market-level contract - but am left scratching my head as to whether he (like Knox) was the best guy to offer an extension given other team needs. It has a little bit of the "endowment effect" look to it - the tendency to overvalue what you have and to undervalue what you could get instead.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He was top 6 in ESPN's pass rush win rate in 2021, top 6 in their run stop win rate in 2022. His total career pressures are 62, from 2,284 total snaps. That works out as a pressure around once every 37 snaps. If you compare that to his contemporaries from the 2019 First Round:

Q Williams - every 31 snaps

D Lawrence - every 36 snaps

J Simmons - every 40 snaps

C Wilkins - every 57 snaps

 

And compare it to some of the top paid (non-Aaron Donald) defensive tackles:

Chris Jones - every 18 snaps*

DeForest Buckner - every 29 snaps*

Javon Hargrave - every 38 snaps*

Daron Payne - every 46 snaps

 

* denotes calculation for those players is since 2018 when PFR began tracking pressures.

 

While I would argue that shows there is clear water between Ed and the very top level elite guys - Jones, Buckner and Q - his underlying metrics compare pretty well with other guys being paid more. Agree the bare production numbers don't, and for the deal to work out value they will have to, but there are reasons for optimism based on the data.

 

As for snap counts, over the final 8 games in 2022 Ed Oliver played an average of 70% (70.125% to be exact - no guesstimation here) of the defensive snaps. If that is the frequency of use they intend going forward I think that can justify the investment should the bare production numbers take the uptick that I agree they need to.

 

 

You see that's more like it.........providing what you think is the info that makes him worthy of $30K per snap.

 

The issue is that pressures alone don't elevate you as a pass rusher and run stop win rate when you aren't only making 30 some tackles because you aren't playing that much is limited in it's value.

 

If pressures were THAT valued then Jerry Hughes would have been seen in a much different light when he was at the top of the league in pass rush win rate and pressures but only getting 5 sacks per year.    Beane isn't spending early picks on DE's and signing Von Miller if Jerry's ifs and buts were candies and nuts.

 

The big money per snap should be reserved for closers and guys who do it while not having to be subbed out for 40% or more of the snaps.   Ed's snap counts are so incredibly low that he's basically a situational pass rusher compared to the other top producers.

 

In short.........he needs to become a very different player.........one who plays more snaps and makes more plays to justify $17M per season.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You see that's more like it.........providing what you think is the info that makes him worthy of $30K per snap.

 

The issue is that pressures alone don't elevate you as a pass rusher and run stop win rate when you aren't only making 30 some tackles because you aren't playing that much is limited in it's value.

 

If pressures were THAT valued then Jerry Hughes would have been seen in a much different light when he was at the top of the league in pass rush win rate and pressures but only getting 5 sacks per year.    Beane isn't spending early picks on DE's and signing Von Miller if Jerry's ifs and buts were candies and nuts.

 

The big money per snap should be reserved for closers and guys who do it while not having to be subbed out for 40% or more of the snaps.   Ed's snap counts are so incredibly low that he's basically a situational pass rusher compared to the other top producers.

 

In short.........he needs to become a very different player.........one who plays more snaps and makes more plays to justify $17M per season.  

One could also ask whether pressures per snap is a good way of evaluating a rotational 3tech as opposed to his peers who are playing significantly more snaps, presumably vs the run as well as passing downs

 

It seems more like a statistic for an argument than anything to me. You'd expect the guy with fewer snaps to be able to get to the QB at a higher frequency from the 3tech spot

[ColoradoBills]

14 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

That's clearly a planning thiing and that's on Beane.   That's what he gets paid the big bucks to do.  

 

 

 

Take a look at who the Chiefs have locked up at DT for next season.  You probably won't.  Too many fans are myopic about this team and

don't realize that most of the criticism they fantasize about happen to other teams all the time.

[Reks Ryan]

On 6/3/2023 at 6:16 PM, Capco said:

Here's a hypothetical contract structure which shows how this move can make cap sense:

 

Extension value:  $68m

Guaranteed total:  $45m

Signing bonus:  $25m

Salary total:  $43m

 

Cap Hits (by year; amortized signing bonus listed first)

1. $5m + $1m = $6m (creating $4m in cap space)
2. $5m + $8m = $13m
3. $5m + $11m = $16m
4. $5m + $11m = $16m
5. $5m + $12m = $17m

 

Total Cash Paid (by year)

1. $25m + $1m = $26m
2. $26m + $8m = $34m
3. $34m + $11m = $45m (guaranteed total met)
4. $45m + $11m = $56m
5. $56m + $12m =$68m

it's a $68 mil 4 year extension.  He was already set get paid over $10 mil guaranteed in 2023.   So I think the total contract value is around $78 million

[MasterStrategist]

18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You see that's more like it.........providing what you think is the info that makes him worthy of $30K per snap.

 

The issue is that pressures alone don't elevate you as a pass rusher and run stop win rate when you aren't only making 30 some tackles because you aren't playing that much is limited in it's value.

 

If pressures were THAT valued then Jerry Hughes would have been seen in a much different light when he was at the top of the league in pass rush win rate and pressures but only getting 5 sacks per year.    Beane isn't spending early picks on DE's and signing Von Miller if Jerry's ifs and buts were candies and nuts.

 

The big money per snap should be reserved for closers and guys who do it while not having to be subbed out for 40% or more of the snaps.   Ed's snap counts are so incredibly low that he's basically a situational pass rusher compared to the other top producers.

 

In short.........he needs to become a very different player.........one who plays more snaps and makes more plays to justify $17M per season.  

Jerry isn't a great example, just my opinion.

 

A "pressure" from defensive end VS DT is very different.  Jerry got past the OT (bc of his speed), that often counts as a pressure....but in reality, didn't disrupt the passer.

 

Whereas, Ed's pressure is directly in the face of the QB, often leading to a hurried throw/incompletion OR sack by another player (or Ed himself).  

 

It's way different to me.

 

As far as Ed's snap counts, his average ticked up at the 2nd half of season and was close to 70%.  That's different than your math....but I agree if he's playing 60% or fewer snaps, then that makes his deal look different.  Do you or I know yet what that will look like?  

 

The answer is No, and we have dodged the alternative of looking for a high-round or high-$ replacement next offseason, at a core position.

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You see that's more like it.........providing what you think is the info that makes him worthy of $30K per snap.

 

The issue is that pressures alone don't elevate you as a pass rusher and run stop win rate when you aren't only making 30 some tackles because you aren't playing that much is limited in it's value.

 

If pressures were THAT valued then Jerry Hughes would have been seen in a much different light when he was at the top of the league in pass rush win rate and pressures but only getting 5 sacks per year.    Beane isn't spending early picks on DE's and signing Von Miller if Jerry's ifs and buts were candies and nuts.

 

The big money per snap should be reserved for closers and guys who do it while not having to be subbed out for 40% or more of the snaps.   Ed's snap counts are so incredibly low that he's basically a situational pass rusher compared to the other top producers.

 

In short.........he needs to become a very different player.........one who plays more snaps and makes more plays to justify $17M per season.  

 

I don't disagree with that. He does need the bare production numbers to improve to justify that contract. And he needs to maintain the sort of play percentage we saw the 2nd half of last season or, to be more accurate, the team needs to keep putting him out there at that kinda clip. If over the next 3 years Ed is still around 4 sacks and 9 or 10 TFLs earning $17m AAV then whether he is the 13th best paid DT (as he is now) or the 23rd best paid DT is almost irrelevant because the question becomes the opportunity cost with that money. But there are reasons, both on the film and in the underlying analytics, to believe that the bare production does not accurately reflect who Ed is. Of course there is a chance they do - and the Jerry Hughes comparison is noted - and that is the risk with this contract. But I still think there is a huge ceiling for Ed Oliver and while I recognise the possibility this contract looks like a huge overpay in 3 years time it could also look like a huge bargain (or frankly anywhere in between) and I tend to fall on the optimistic end with this player. 

Edited June 5 by GunnerBill

[Nextmanup]

Horrific judgment here; I like Beane A LOT...but he ain't perfect and every no and again he really ***** the bed.

 

Can't believe they did this.

 

 

Edited June 5 by Nextmanup

[BarleyNY]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As for snap counts, over the final 8 games in 2022 Ed Oliver played an average of 70% (70.125% to be exact - no guesstimation here) of the defensive snaps. If that is the frequency of use they intend going forward I think that can justify the investment should the bare production numbers take the uptick that I agree they need to.

 

That is very misleading. Even with Oliver’s snap count increasing the last 8 games he still only played 50.18% of defensive snaps in 2022. His snap rates in 2019-2021 were 53.67%, 53.97% & 57.79%, respectively. His production, including his PRWR has to be viewed with this in mind. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022-snap-counts.htm

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

That is very misleading. Even with Oliver’s snap count increasing the last 8 games he still only played 50.18% of defensive snaps in 2022. His snap rates in 2019-2021 were 53.67%, 53.97% & 57.79%, respectively. His production, including his PRWR has to be viewed with this in mind. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022-snap-counts.htm

 

Yes - but that is because he missed time hurt. Of course that is a worry but he hasn't missed a lot of time hurt. In the second half of 2022 the message seemed to get through to the Bills coaches that they needed Ed on the field more. If they are going to justify this extension they definitely need that to become the long term pattern rather than the rotation rates of his first 3 years. 

 

I am not trying to mislead, just to make the point that the Bills did change their approach on that at the end of last year. 

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, Green Lightning said:

I don't disagree with you on that.  I just don't thing EO is worth extending. His zero tackle performance against Cincy's second string OL really cemented it for me. He gets pushed around.

Great post.  In no way is he worth extending; he's undersized at this level, always has been, and always will be.

 

The fast small DL concept worked in college football in the '80s and '90s...That crap has no place in the modern NFL.

 

I would have 330 pound lard asses up and down the line and tell them to simply not let anything go through them.  Put the talent a layer deeper..

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

When I first saw $68m for Ed, I thought, "What the heck is Beane doing?!?!"

 

But I've settled down.  If you include his 5th year option, Oliver will average about $10.75 over the next five years.   That ranks 16th among DLinemen.  

 

If each team fields four down linemen, then there are 32 starting DTs in the NFL.  But since some teams use 3-man fronts, there are actually fewer than 32 starting DTs in the NFL which makes Ed's pay less than average.  

 

And if you think ahead a couple of years, by then Ed's contract will be significantly below average for a starting DT.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

When I first saw $68m for Ed, I thought, "What the heck is Beane doing?!?!"

 

But I've settled down.  If you include his 5th year option, Oliver will average about $10.75 over the next five years.   That ranks 16th among DLinemen.  

 

If each team fields four down linemen, then there are 32 starting DTs in the NFL.  But since some teams use 3-man fronts, there are actually fewer than 32 starting DTs in the NFL which makes Ed's pay less than average.  

 

And if you think ahead a couple of years, by then Ed's contract will be significantly below average for a starting DT.  

 

The number is $15.75m - $10.75m on the option, plus $68m = $78.75m / 5 years = $15.75m AAV. I think that is what you meant though because it would rank 16th among DTackles. 

 

But if every NFL team played a 4-3 there would be 64 starting DTackles. They don't of course... but that is the math. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

When I first saw $68m for Ed, I thought, "What the heck is Beane doing?!?!"

 

But I've settled down.  If you include his 5th year option, Oliver will average about $10.75 over the next five years.   That ranks 16th among DLinemen.  

 

If each team fields four down linemen, then there are 32 starting DTs in the NFL.  But since some teams use 3-man fronts, there are actually fewer than 32 starting DTs in the NFL which makes Ed's pay less than average.  

 

And if you think ahead a couple of years, by then Ed's contract will be significantly below average for a starting DT.  

are you including his 5th year option for all the guys above him who signed extensions too

[BADOLBILZ]

53 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

As far as Ed's snap counts, his average ticked up at the 2nd half of season and was close to 70%.  That's different than your math....but I agree if he's playing 60% or fewer snaps, then that makes his deal look different.  Do you or I know yet what that will look like?  

 

The answer is No, and we have dodged the alternative of looking for a high-round or high-$ replacement next offseason, at a core position.

 

 

My math is the ACTUAL math over the course of his career not just a tiny subset of games you are trying to cherry pick in his defense.

 

It's been pretty static with Ed Oliver and his 60% snap counts in 2022 don't even count games that he missed to injury.   He actually played the least % of total defensive snaps of any season because last season he missed 3 full games and subsequently had the lowest snap total of his career.    I'm not slighting him even a bit on the math I am actually giving him a full pass for games missed to injury while judging him on his full body of work.    He's far, far from an 80% snap guy.   Miles from it.

 

As for not knowing yet what he will look like in the future.........I guess we don't know that Gabriel Davis isn't going to put up 1500 yards and 12 TD's next season either...........but I'm not going to pay him like a WR1 now in anticipation that he will essentially double his career production.    That's kinda' what they are doing with Ed Oliver........hoping that he plays and produces A LOT more.    

 

What he's done doesn't justify top pay.    That's the only way we can judge the deal at this point.   He's had 4 years of runway to prove what he is.   The Poona Ford-esque sack and tackle numbers coming from a guy who is playing the playmaking 3T not the grinding 1T just don't justify the VAST difference between making a few million and $17M.