Hopkins released by Arizona (7/16: signed by Titans)

[Fan in Chicago]

21 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is our decade. Decade and a half. Going all in on this year, meaning sacrificing the future, is nuts.

I very much  disagree. I rather get the first Lombardi and worry about the next decade later. It's better to win at least one than be above average for 10 years

[MikePJ76]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I have some bad news for you then

 

every single player on the Bills is only motivated by money

Yes.   But I view that motivation in different ways, there are subtle differences to how each player is motivated by money.  

 

for some guys it really is about money and ego, some guys it is about money to be a leader on their team.  

 

I do not view it as black and white.  

[Warriorspikes51]

10 minutes ago, Cotton Fitzsimmons said:

If HAPPY DAYS says it you can take it to the bank. Thank you my good fellow!

HappyDays is officially my favorite poster!!

[Fan in Chicago]

23 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, yeah, I do realize it.

 

There is always money left on the credit cards too. But the people who think that means it's a great idea to max out those cards because they can don't end up having successful financial lives.

 

There are always more shiny objects out there too. 

 

Always.

Sports is very much different than personal and corporate finances

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Signing D-Hop, unless were paying him something crazy, isn’t “mortgaging the future”… at least not while Josh Allen is here. 
 

What we will need to do is hit at a better rate on our impact draft picks moving forward.   The money to backfill if we don’t won’t likely be as available. 

 

 

Unfortunately, it really is mortgaging the future. Precisely that.

 

Unless D-Hop somehow comes here on the cheap. That would be fantastic but I don't see that happening, unfortunately. 

 

We're only $1.6M under the cap right now. Everybody knows this. What many don't know is that  we're already $35M OVER the cap for 2024. 

 

And yeah, it would be great to draft better. Any team can say that regardless of their cap status. We already draft pretty well. I'm for drafting better, though. But teams drafting late in the round simply don't have the opportunities or likelihood of getting the best results out of their draft. 

 

Give D-Hop a big signing bonus and you've kicked money down the road ... and that $35M has gone up, as has the cap figure for each year of the rest of the contract. 

 

It's precisely mortgaging the future. You can do it, but there are limits and very very real consequences.

 

 

Just now, Fan in Chicago said:

Sports is very much different than personal and corporate finances

 

 

Sure, sure.

 

But the salary cap and credit card analogy is really right on target. Excepting interest, of course. 

 

But a team paying a signing bonus and the way the amortization works is a near-exact match to how credit cards work. You borrow the money? You have to account for it. Borrow enough money from future years and you'll destroy your freedom to spend in those future years.

[Thurman#1]

6 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I very much  disagree. I rather get the first Lombardi and worry about the next decade later. It's better to win at least one than be above average for 10 years

 

 

I personally think you're crazy. But it's a legitimate view.

 

I'm sure you don't care if I don't share that view. Why would you? Thing is, it's a view that is also not shared by Beane and Co. They've said multiple times that their goal is to be competitive every year.

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

I would expect our main formations to be

 

3 WR  1 TE  1 RB

 

2 WR  2 TE  1 RB

 

4 WR  1 TE

 

Hopkins took 27% of his snaps in the slot in 2022. Moving him and Diggs around could create a lot of problems!

[Augie]

16 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

How much would it take to get that print bigger? 

[Special K]

3 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

How much would it take to get that print bigger? 

[Thurman#1]

7 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I would expect our main formations to be

 

3 WR  1 TE  1 RB

 

2 WR  2 TE  1 RB

 

4 WR  1 TE

 

Hopkins took 27% of his snaps in the slot in 2022. Moving him and Diggs around could create a lot of problems!

 

 

In terms of whether we could use D-Hop and whether he would improve us, I totally agree with you. He'd cause opponents problems. He's a great player.

[CircleTheWagons99]

He will be a Lion.  Just a feeling. 

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is our decade. Decade and a half. Going all in on this year, meaning sacrificing the future, is nuts.

 

Nonsense.

 

Somewhere there was a Green Bay version of you that was saying "this is our decade and a half,   going all in this year would be nuts" after they won the SB in 2011.

 

Aaron Rodgers never even reached another Super Bowl in the next 11 seasons despite being the most talented QB in the NFC every year.

 

Meanwhile........Josh Allen plays in a conference loaded with elite young QB talent like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow,  Trevor Lawrence and a bunch of other QB's capable of taking teams to a Super Bowl.    If it didn't work out for the Packers with THAT cakewalk of a setup then presuming that it will for the Bills is idiocy.

 

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

He will be a Lion.  Just a feeling. 

why go there? Unless they offer him 2 for 50 million or something

[Einstein]

 

[Warriorspikes51]

19 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Unfortunately, it really is mortgaging the future. Precisely that.

 

Unless D-Hop somehow comes here on the cheap. That would be fantastic but I don't see that happening, unfortunately. 

 

We're only $1.6M under the cap right now. Everybody knows this. What many don't know is that  we're already $35M OVER the cap for 2024. 

 

And yeah, it would be great to draft better. Any team can say that regardless of their cap status. We already draft pretty well. I'm for drafting better, though. But teams drafting late in the round simply don't have the opportunities or likelihood of getting the best results out of their draft. 

 

Give D-Hop a big signing bonus and you've kicked money down the road ... and that $35M has gone up, as has the cap figure for each year of the rest of the contract. 

 

It's precisely mortgaging the future. You can do it, but there are limits and very very real consequences.

 

 

 

 

Sure, sure.

 

But the salary cap and credit card analogy is really right on target. Excepting interest, of course. 

 

But a team paying a signing bonus and the way the amortization works is a near-exact match to how credit cards work. You borrow the money? You have to account for it. Borrow enough money from future years and you'll destroy your freedom to spend in those future years.

 

the cap keeps going up & there are ways to structute contracts to limit their impact

 

GO FOR IT!  

[Thurman#1]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Nonsense.

 

Somewhere there was a Green Bay version of you that was saying "this is our decade and a half,   going all in this year would be nuts" after they won the SB in 2011.

 

Aaron Rodgers never even reached another Super Bowl in the next 11 seasons despite being the most talented QB in the NFC every year.

 

Meanwhile........Josh Allen plays in a conference loaded with elite young QB talent like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow,  Trevor Lawrence and a bunch of other QB's capable of taking teams to a Super Bowl.    If it didn't work out for the Packers with THAT cakewalk of a setup then presuming that it will for the Bills is idiocy.

 

 

 

You said nonsense, and then didn't say a single word that put any logical pressure on what I said. Not a single word. So your response wasn't nonsense. But it was irrelevant to what I said.

 

Green Bay had  a terrific run during that period. Didn't win another one, but came close numerous times and it was a great time to be a Packer fan.

 

You can pretend that bringing in D-Hop would guarantee a title this year. It would only be pretending. It would raise the chances this year but drop them for years after.

 

This absolutely is going to be our decade to decade and a half as long as we have Allen and don't put ourselves in cap jail at some points and throw away a few of those years.

 

 

 

 

[Einstein]

49 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is our decade. Decade and a half. Going all in on this year, meaning sacrificing the future, is nuts.

 

A decade of always the bridesmaid, never the bride?

 

Sounds… yuck.

[Warriorspikes51]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You said nonsense, and then didn't say a single word that put any logical pressure on what I said. Not a single word. So your response wasn't nonsense. But it was irrelevant to what I said.

 

Green Bay had  a terrific run during that period. Didn't win another one, but came close numerous times and it was a great time to be a Packer fan.

 

You can pretend that bringing in D-Hop would guarantee a title this year. It would only be pretending. It would raise the chances this year but drop them for years after.

 

This absolutely is going to be our decade to decade and a half as long as we have Allen and don't put ourselves in cap jail at some points and throw away a few of those years.

 

 

 

 

the future is uncertain. God forbid, Allen could have an awful injury, or leave Buffalo. 
 

the next 10-15 years of winning at a high level  is not promised, especially in this league.

 

adding this player gives us the best chance we can get to win a championship

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

the cap keeps going up & there are ways to structute contracts to limit their impact

 

GO FOR IT!  

 

 

Your salary can keep going up and there are ways to structure your personal loans so that they ... Same deal. Those things aren't get out of jail free cards. They just mean borrowing more from future years.

 

And no, there aren't ways to structure contracts to limit their impact, in terms of playing games with the cap. There are ways to structure contracts to limit their impact in specific years. I mean, sure, you're right, you can structure a contract to limit impact. You could make it totally non-guaranteed, give zero signing bonus and vet min all four years. Very very limited cap impact. But D-Hop doesn't sign that contract. You've got to write a contract the player will sign. They want bonuses and guaranteed money and big money. 

 

 

 

The fact that the cap is going up is already cooked into the financial decisions Beane's already made. They reached the point where they 

 

Go for it ... if it makes sense. Otherwise, pass.

 

I don't think there's a zero chance this happens. But the current situation makes it pretty damn unlikely.

 

 

[Fan in Chicago]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

. 

 

But a team paying a signing bonus and the way the amortization works is a near-exact match to how credit cards work. You borrow the money? You have to account for it. Borrow enough money from future years and you'll destroy your freedom to spend in those future years.

 

But personal finances are for the long term. Slow and steady is a good philosophy

NFL is very very different. We have suffered long enough. I just want to win one now. 

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Your salary can keep going up and there are ways to structure your personal loans so that they ... Same deal. Those things aren't get out of jail free cards. They just mean borrowing more from future years.

 

And no, there aren't ways to structure contracts to limit their impact, in terms of playing games with the cap. There are ways to structure contracts to limit their impact in specific years. I mean, sure, you're right, you can structure a contract to limit impact. You could make it totally non-guaranteed, give zero signing bonus and vet min all four years. Very very limited cap impact. But D-Hop doesn't sign that contract. You've got to write a contract the player will sign. They want bonuses and guaranteed money and big money. 

 

 

 

The fact that the cap is going up is already cooked into the financial decisions Beane's already made. They reached the point where they 

 

Go for it ... if it makes sense. Otherwise, pass.

 

I don't think there's a zero chance this happens. But the current situation makes it pretty damn unlikely.

 

 

if Tre White is restructured as has apparently been considered, you can sign him to a 1 year 15 mil deal like OBJ and keep the cap hit under 5 million by adding a couple void years. 
 

I think I’d prefer to get him for 2-3 years but that may be more challenging

Edited May 27, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[Thurman#1]

7 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

the future is uncertain. God forbid, Allen could have an awful injury, or leave Buffalo. 
 

the next 10-15 years of winning at a high level  is not promised, especially in this league.

 

adding this player gives us the best chance we can get to win a championship

 

 

Fair enough. But that argument works both ways.

 

Next year isn't guaranteed either. Say they mortgage the future by bringing in Hopkins, and then Allen is injured and out for the year. Now they have no chance for probably four or five years.

 

You're right, that 10 - 15 years isn't promised. But that's the way to bet. If they handle the money smartly, and keep us in contention for as many years as possible.

 

Very questionable that bringing in Hopkins gives us the best chance. That's a guess. And IMO not a very good one.

Edited May 27, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

16 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

why go there? Unless they offer him 2 for 50 million or something

 

They're likely the best team in their division. 

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Yes the game is vastly different...I would make the case that the NFL today resembles college football about 15 years ago.  

 

anyway, I don't buy OBJ as any missing piece to that rams championship.  The piece they were missing was stafford.  They had the defense and the running game of a championship team and upgraded at qb.

 

AJ Brown does not have  championship.  He is no different than Randy Moss, Owens etc.  They did not get over the hump and win a championship because of them. 

 

The biggest change in the eagles last year was hurts terrific play, their outstanding offensive and a defensive line about 8 deep that was all over the quarterback.  

 

I would rather the bills have an excellent defense and an excellent running game than another superstar wr on the decline.  Give Allen a real running game and an excellent defense and he will take care of the rest. 

 

I just think chasing aging expensive wr is the wrong approach.  They have a great #1 and what looks to be a good cast around him on offense.  If the running game improves allen will make one of the other wr into above average players. 

 

 

Yeah if you are expecting any WR that has enough warts to actually hit UFA to have the impact that a franchise QB with a $100M+ in guarantees like Stafford could provide I don't think you really have this "missing piece" thing in context at all.

 

Nobody impacts the game like a QB.

 

The Rams were barely a playoff team in 2020 with Goff/without Stafford........without Stafford they didn't even have a punchers chance going into 2021.

 

That said........Stafford wasn't great until the playoffs when OBJ was at about the same post-surgical place that Tre White was at late last season.    The 2021 Rams had a VERY disappointing regular season considering all of the $ investments and future draft capital expended.

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Fair enough. But that argument works both ways.

 

Next year isn't guaranteed either. Say they mortgage the future by bringing in Hopkins, and then Allen is injured and out for the year. Now they have no chance for probably four or five years.

 

You're right, that 10 - 15 years isn't promised. But that's the way to bet. If they handle the money smartly.

 

Very questionable that bringing in Hopkins gives us the best chance. That's a guess. And IMO not a very good one.

how often do you have the chance to add a top 10 WR to go with a top 5 WR and a top 3 QB?

[Thurman#1]

3 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

 

But personal finances are for the long term. Slow and steady is a good philosophy

NFL is very very different. We have suffered long enough. I just want to win one now. 

 

 

Just wanting to win one now is your choice. Again, I totally disagree. Give me an exciting 15 years where we have a great chance. If that happens, we likely win one, maybe two or three or more. I totally disagree, but if that's your opinion, fine.

 

But yeah, personal finances are for the long-term. 

 

Thing is, so is football when you've a got a QB as young and terrific as Josh Allen.

 

And again, Beane does not agree with you. 

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Just wanting to win one now is your choice. Again, I totally disagree. Give me an exciting 15 years where we have a great chance. If that happens, we likely win one, maybe two or three or more. I totally disagree, but if that's your opinion, fine.

 

But yeah, personal finances are for the long-term. 

 

Thing is, so is football when you've a got a QB as young and terrific as Josh Allen.

 

And again, Beane does not agree with you. 

Allen is 27. I hope he plays at this level until 37 and with the Bills. Neither is a certainty.

 

when Diggs has been taken out of games for stretches by other teams, we have no answer

Edited May 27, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

how often do you have the chance to add a top 10 WR to go with a top 5 WR and a top 3 QB?

 

 

How often is there a shiny object out there? It's really common.

 

The question is how often do you have a team with an elite QB  a very very good roster, probably top 3 or 4, in financial shape to be a terrific team for a long time? Does that happen often enough to ruin the situation for a shiny object?

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

DraftKings has the Bills as the favorites to land Hopkins at +300 

[Thurman#1]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

Allen is 27. I hope he plays at this level until 37 and with the Bills. Neither is a certainty.

 

 

And again, that argument works both ways. Neither is it a certainty he (nor Hopkins) stays healthy even if they bring Hopkins in.

 

But him staying overall healthy for the next decade is probably the way to bet. Career-ending injuries happen but the way guys like Brady and Manning and Stafford are exceptions is not in staying healthy up to age 37 (your number). It's in being terrific.

[Fan in Chicago]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

How often is there a shiny object out there? It's really common.

 

The question is how often do you have a team with an elite QB  a very very good roster, probably top 3 or 4, in financial shape to be a terrific team for a long time? Does that happen often enough to ruin the situation for a shiny object?

Let's try this thought exercise (without exact numbers)

Say the Bills sign Hopkins with a back ended 2 years contract. He puts us over the top and we win the Superbowl. Next off season,  we dint have the money to pay Oliver and we have to draft his replacement.  

Would you be sad?

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

How often is there a shiny object out there? It's really common.

 

The question is how often do you have a team with an elite QB  a very very good roster, probably top 3 or 4, in financial shape to be a terrific team for a long time? Does that happen often enough to ruin the situation for a shiny object?

the “shiny object” has dropped 4 passes in his last 474 targets.  That is an attribute the Bills desperately need
 

Drops and the lack of a legit threat opposite Diggs KILLED this team. Kincaid may be great, but relying on him to be that immediately is a big question mark.

 

Coaches and players know how good Hopkins is

[Canadian Bills Fan]

I really hope this gets done. Beans is a wizard with contracts and the cap and I remember reading somewhere that Hopkins said he would structure it to make it cap friendly 

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

Wide Receivers are never the missing piece and do not put teams over the top in winning championships.

 

The Rams added OBJ. The Eagles added AJ Brown. The Chiefs added Kadarius Toney. Every one of these additions ultimately changed the fortune of their team. IMO you're living in the past if you don't think adding a top tier WR can push a team over the hump. The Bills did it just 3 years ago and it revolutionized our offense.

[Thurman#1]

6 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

the “shiny object” has dropped 4 passes in his last 474 targets.  That is an attribute the Bills desperately need
 

Drops and the lack of a legit threat opposite Diggs KILLED this team. Kincaid may be great, but relying on him to be that immediately is a big question mark.

 

Coaches and players know how good Hopkins is

 

 

I'm not arguing he's not shiny. Take a look at my recent posts in this very thread. But there's always a shiny object. Always. 

 

Hell, if we sign him, three days later it'll be someone else anyway, just one more guy and we can kick the can down the road.

 

It's not impossible, IMO. It'll depend on Hopkins' demands, for one thing. But I'd guess it's very unlikely.

 

We'll see.

 

 

Edited May 27, 2023 by Thurman#1

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Rams added OBJ. The Eagles added AJ Brown. The Chiefs added Kadarius Toney. Every one of these additions ultimately changed the fortune of their team. IMO you're living in the past if you don't think adding a top tier WR can push a team over the hump. The Bills did it just 3 years ago and it revolutionized our offense.

Mike watches football and thinks it’s the 80s. There’s a reason WRs are now the most sought after recruits (outside of OTs due to scarcity) in college and why their price tags are skyrocketing in the NFL. 

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm not arguing he's not shiny. Take a look at my recent posts in this very thread.

 

It's not impossible, IMO. It'll depend on Hopkins' demands, for one thing. But I'd guess it's very unlikely.

considering the Bills are heavily interested and the player has openly expressed his love for the QB and franchise multiple times, I’d say there’s a real chance the front office finds a way. Especially if Josh Allen requests it…..and he very well could have given Hopkins comments on him and them following each other on social media.
 

Further, not only Von Miller….but Diggs is also buddies with DHop and they regularly comment on each other’s IG

 

 

Edited May 27, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm not arguing he's not shiny. Take a look at my recent posts in this very thread.

 

It's not impossible, IMO. It'll depend on Hopkins' demands, for one thing. But I'd guess it's very unlikely.

It’s “unlikely” for any team right now. Which is why the favorites to land him are the Bills at +300. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm not arguing he's not shiny. Take a look at my recent posts in this very thread.

 

It's not impossible, IMO. It'll depend on Hopkins' demands, for one thing. But I'd guess it's very unlikely.

Totally agree, they won't break the bank for him and not pay him more than Diggs who would throw a fit

 

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Per my usual source, word for word from them - "The Bills are HEAVILY interested in DHop. It's already beyond a call being made. Work is being done."

 

Teams became aware that Hopkins would be released several days ago. Around that same time the Bills conducted an imaging review of Tre White's knee to make sure they would be comfortable tying themselves to his future in the event of a necessary restructure. White has performed very well at OTAs and the team is more confident than ever about his future.

 

That's all I have.

 

I wonder if that timeline also would align with when Hopkins started talking about how he'd like to play with Josh Allen and an organization that sounds eerily similar to the Bills.