Why bother with Special Teams?

[GolfandBills]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I honestly don’t understand why they don’t just kick it out of the end zone every kick.

 

They are trying to kick it high and make a tackle inside the 20 but it’s not likely to happen. Sets up injuries and a possible long return.

 

 I also think they have to justify the cap spent on special teams players. They need to change the philosophy. 
 

Bass was 70% touch back as a rookie and the coaches have him down to 46% last year. Dropping each year. There is very little benefit in kicking short. 

Cause we might stop them at the 24 and save a yard…. 🙃

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Haven’t really looked into kickoff stats in a long time. About 60% of all kickoffs are touchbacks. Tyler Bass is at 46%. His % drops every year, likely a coaching decision. 
 

The league average kick return is 23 yards.

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

And the league average kick return is around 20. 
 

We can’t just say 18 yards. What does that even mean? It doesn’t mean anything when compared to the league. There is no advantage to a defense when the opponents offense starts at the 20 vs the 25. 

Lets move on, we are on two different wavelengths....

20 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Do you believe that McD embraces analytical data and uses that in his decision making process?  Because most professional coaches aren't enamored with analytics or the prospect of of using data to shape game-plans or even personnel acquisition.    

 

I think more innovative HC's are looking for advantages and are moving toward this, but many are not.  If anything, cap challenges are driving their decisions on special teams and what they do on the special teams unit. 

 

Yes he does..... What do you think this guy does?

 

Luis Güílamo Director of Analytics & Application Development

Edited February 20, 2023 by Matt_In_NH

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I honestly don’t understand why they don’t just kick it out of the end zone every kick.

 

They are trying to kick it high and make a tackle inside the 20 but it’s not likely to happen. Sets up injuries and a possible long return.

 

 I also think they have to justify the cap spent on special teams players. They need to change the philosophy. 
 

Bass was 70% touch back as a rookie and the coaches have him down to 46% last year. Dropping each year. There is very little benefit in kicking short. 

I disagree on your second sentence and third is absurd comment, imo..

 

If you have a good enough kicker that can kick it high and right around the goal line, odds are excellent you will gain yardage.  Factor in the wind then it can enhance that advantage.  You certainly dont "have" to do it every kickoff, depends upon game circumstances.  A master of that is Belichek

40 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

And the league average kick return is around 20. 
 

We can’t just say 18 yards. What does that even mean? It doesn’t mean anything when compared to the league. There is no advantage to a defense when the opponents offense starts at the 20 vs the 25. 

There is no advantage to a defense when the opponents start at the 20 or 25.  I couldn't disagree more.  So i guess in a game of inches your assert 5 yards is nothing in a kickoff scenario.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

20 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I disagree on your second sentence and third is absurd comment, imo..

 

If you have a good enough kicker that can kick it high and right around the goal line, odds are excellent you will gain yardage.  Factor in the wind then it can enhance that advantage.  You certainly dont "have" to do it every kickoff, depends upon game circumstances.  A master of that is Belichek

There is no advantage to a defense when the opponents start at the 20 or 25.  I couldn't disagree more.  So i guess in a game of inches your assert 5 yards is nothing in a kickoff scenario.

This is never a topic discussed by analytics people which makes me believe the difference is minimal.

 

I would love to learn real data on this. The Bills have good kick off coverage but my reaction to them allowing a 40+ yard return even just once is always just kick it out of the end!

 

 I don’t see the downside to having offense start at the 25. I’m just looking and the Bills have kicked it out of bounds 2 times trying to set up a returned kickoff. Drive start at the 40. Momentum has never changed with a touchback.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BILLieve85]

Just wait until next offseason when Bass needs a new deal. At some point these luxuries just won’t be possible 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, BILLieve85 said:

Just wait until next offseason when Bass needs a new deal. At some point these luxuries just won’t be possible 

The Bills likely have a cap budget for special teams spending. So they probably used cap on cover guys that they saved on a rookie kicker contract. They might have had 1-2 extra special teams players because Bass was cheap.

[MJS]

The majority of your roster sits on the bench. Those bench sitters might as well be good at special teams.

[Big Turk]

Because it will come back to bite you at the worst possible times if you don't.

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Luis Güílamo Director of Analytics & Application Development

 

Just because a guy is on staff doesn't mean he's consulted in decision making: 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/buffalo-bills-head-coach-doug-marrone-meets-the-press-0ap1000000123380

 

I never got the feeling Marrone embraced analytics, but they had a lead there.  Then again, we could debate endlessly what it means to use analytics and get nowhere in the process. 

 

It is to drive decisions, like in game-planning or personnel?  Or should it be supporting decision making?  Perhaps it's used for the latter at OBD now, but definitely does not feature prominently particularly when it comes up against McD's vision of NFL football.  

 

I can't imagine their Analytics Director in the room during draft prep in a deep debate with McBeane about how drafting a RD2 RB or signing another DT is probably not a good idea.  

 

[Matt_In_NH]

2 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Just because a guy is on staff doesn't mean he's consulted in decision making: 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/buffalo-bills-head-coach-doug-marrone-meets-the-press-0ap1000000123380

 

I never got the feeling Marrone embraced analytics, but they had a lead there.  Then again, we could debate endlessly what it means to use analytics and get nowhere in the process. 

 

It is to drive decisions, like in game-planning or personnel?  Or should it be supporting decision making?  Perhaps it's used for the latter at OBD now, but definitely does not feature prominently particularly when it comes up against McD's vision of NFL football.  

 

I can't imagine their Analytics Director in the room during draft prep in a deep debate with McBeane about how drafting a RD2 RB or signing another DT is probably not a good idea.  

 

Dude they have a whole department with many people include software engineers.  McDermott and Beane has said they use it.  

Edited February 20, 2023 by Matt_In_NH

[BillsFan2313]

Agreed. KC invests very little in just special teams players, I would say that is working out well. While we are giving 2 plus million cap hits to the Siran Neals and Tyler Matakevichs of the world, keeping Kumerow over Hodgins. 

[Green Lightning]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Punting is different. There are no rules that benefit the punting team.

 

If I were coaching special teams I would want shorter but higher punts for the same reason, limit a return. Force a fair catch. I bet that Eagles punter was trying to directional kick and also pin inside the 20. He missed it and hit a line drive.

 

 I don’t think the extra 5 yards means much. Yes if you can pin them inside the 10 it definitely makes a difference but that’s all on the punters skill, not the coverage. Some guys are good at downing a punt before it goes into the end zone but I’m not spending cap on those guys.

 

 I would also say this, if that punter kicked it through the end zone they might have won the Super Bowl

I think we disagree. If you devalue special teams it's all over the board. If your kickoff coverage sucks so will your punt coverage. Muffed punts and muffed Kickoffs can be game changes. Weather plays hugely into this equation, you're not going to kick/punt out of the endzone everytime. Giving them the ball with a quarter of the field every time is too much advantage.

[ColoradoBills]

I'm all for having a competent or above competent ST group.

I do however question how many "ST only" players a team commits to.

 

A guy "like" Matakevich, who is a ST leader, and on the field constantly is acceptable to me.  I do think his salary is too high.  But my point is

a guy who fills that role is fine with me.

A ST ace gunner who has other roles on ST is ok too.

Having a combined KR/PR is highly desirable.

 

After that, keeping a number of depth players over more talented depth guys solely because of ST skills is what I question.

 

To give an example, the average depth LB, S, CB player all can run and tackle in open space.  I would rather see a more qualified

player at his prime position make the team over a lesser talented player at his prime position who got the roster slot because his ST skills

are slightly higher.

 

Using last year's roster, guys like Kumerow, Neal and Johnson all seem to me to be replaceable with better prime position players,

but most likely made the team because of ST skills.  All 3 of those players last year were needed at their prime position because of

injuries to starters.  Maybe you tip and keep one of those guys but all 3 seems unnecessary.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

22 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

I think we disagree. If you devalue special teams it's all over the board. If your kickoff coverage sucks so will your punt coverage. Muffed punts and muffed Kickoffs can be game changes. Weather plays hugely into this equation, you're not going to kick/punt out of the endzone everytime. Giving them the ball with a quarter of the field every time is too much advantage.

I’m not saying devalue special teams. I’m saying the rule helps you, use it. The rule itself devalues special teams. Take the touch back.

 

I’m fine having the best coaches and putting emphasis on good special teams in practice. I don’t think you need kick cover specialists over quality defensive and offensive depth. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, BillsFan2313 said:

Agreed. KC invests very little in just special teams players, I would say that is working out well. While we are giving 2 plus million cap hits to the Siran Neals and Tyler Matakevichs of the world, keeping Kumerow over Hodgins. 

 

They pay the ones they have a bit less, but they also pay their kicker a bit more.  They also have one of the best special teams coaches in the business so they're a bit more content to use young players (they also had a ton of draft picks).  They do still carry burton and bush who were veteran special teams only players. 

 

I'm all for eliminating paid ST only guys for the most part - i do think that it's worth having 1 or 2 vets though.  Jones is pretty cheap, and a captain.  I'd probably keep him.  

 

Did Hodgins outplay Kumerow at any given point in time?  Kumerows issues this year were injury related, not as though he was a particularly bad player.  He was also a plus blocker vs. hodgins in additiona to special teams ability. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[Buffalo Junction]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It’s the old special teams are 1/3 of the game thinking. The NFL changed the rules which allows for no return the majority of kickoffs. Coach to the rules. The best kick cover teams allow around 20 yards a return. Most of the NFL is right around 20-25 yards a return.

 

If the rules stay the same just kick it out of the end zone. Getting a few yards extra isn’t worth it.

I’m not worried about kickoffs. The issue is that many of the best special teamers (guys who stay in the league and get paid) excel in multiple roles on teams. Experienced upbacks usually call and change protections on punts and are also some of the best tacklers in kick coverage. While going for touchbacks will eliminate KO coverage it still leaves blocking and covering punts which are frequent spots for turnovers or flipped field position. 

[Logic]

Some of the finest coaches in the history of the NFL placed great importance on special teams. 

Our own Hall of Famer Marv Levy, Bill "Greatest Of All Time" Belichick, etc.

You can call their thinking outdated if you want, but....last I checked, special teams is still one third of the game of football.

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

I'm all for having a competent or above competent ST group.

I do however question how many "ST only" players a team commits to.

 

A guy "like" Matakevich, who is a ST leader, and on the field constantly is acceptable to me.  I do think his salary is too high.  But my point is

a guy who fills that role is fine with me.

A ST ace gunner who has other roles on ST is ok too.

Having a combined KR/PR is highly desirable.

 

After that, keeping a number of depth players over more talented depth guys solely because of ST skills is what I question.

 

To give an example, the average depth LB, S, CB player all can run and tackle in open space.  I would rather see a more qualified

player at his prime position make the team over a lesser talented player at his prime position who got the roster slot because his ST skills

are slightly higher.

 

Using last year's roster, guys like Kumerow, Neal and Johnson all seem to me to be replaceable with better prime position players,

but most likely made the team because of ST skills.  All 3 of those players last year were needed at their prime position because of

injuries to starters.  Maybe you tip and keep one of those guys but all 3 seems unnecessary.

Yes it is actually enjoyable and exciting to have Hines on the team returning kicks and it certainly paid off in spades versus New England.

[hemma]

IMO, Beane should add a couple of scouts for the college game, specifically for sT’s..  These aren’t guys we’d draft, but instead aggressively

pursue as UDFAs.  Steve Tasker type sledgehammers.

 

Hold onto the crazy money being spent on Matekevich, etc.  

Save a ton on 4 nut jobs.  Keep doing that every year.

 

Might be messy in year 1, but straightened out by year 2.

 

Then get a wr that can catch the ball before it hits his face or an OT that can move his foot in less than a second.