Great and pretty brutal assessment of Bills’ talent by Chris Simms

[GunnerBill]

The Florio points on Elam, never throwing to running backs and the passing game are all right. 

 

The Elam point I am surprised they haven't used him more - the two offensive points a lot of us made here before the season when Sal C and others were telling us not to worry about our lack of otuside receivers and to see Shakir and Cook as "pass catchers" who would play a part in this wonderfully diverse offense

 

[Best Williams Available]

Apologize if this was posted before: https://twitter.com/michaelfflorio/status/1617562321391620098?s=46&t=IlCHj31sbdfmj2MzT7PhGw

 

 

in the video the idea I like best is what Florio said about getting an offensive HC. The benefit of him, the OC, the QB coach and QB being incubators for creativity. Right now we have Dorsey and Josh, 2 inexperienced gunslingers making this choices. They could use some balanced input. McDermott can’t provide that.

[The Frankish Reich]

9 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

The Bengals, Eagles and 49ers, all 3 of these teams have QB's on rookie contracts, when Burrow, Hurts and either Purdy or Lance reup the contract they'll also be making big decisions.

This is huge. I remember when Russell Wilson broke out in Seattle and everyone said -- correctly -- that their huge advantage was not just having a really good QB; it was having a really good young QB on a cheapo 3rd round contract. Just another way in which competitive balance is always the equilibrium in the NFL

Edited January 24, 2023 by The Frankish Reich

[Best Williams Available]

9 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

So an interesting point that Florio made about having an offensive head coach, was the "brain trust" aspect of having (his example) Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, and John DeFilippo on the Superbowl Eagles to have all the offensive creativity of all those offensive minds.

 

The thing is, the Bills tried to create something like that.  It wasn't just Dorsey.  They had Joe Brady, passing game coordinator for Championship LSU team and former OC for the Panthers; they had Mike Shula, former OC for the Panthers when they were winning, two division round appearances and a superbowl appearance.  They had Aaron Kromer for OL and run game.  They had a lot of experience and (presumably) creativity on the offensive coaching staff.  (and then they had John Butler given the title of "Passing Game Coordinator").

 

So then the question becomes, is it the RIGHT offensive creativity?  Shula ultimately lost a Superbowl, and crafted an offense that arguably burnt Cam Newton out.  I thought it suffered from the same problem as the Bills offense currently is - neglecting talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Brady was not "all that" in Carolina as OC, though I thought he was kind of a fall guy.

 

Point being, it's not enough to have a number of experienced offensive minds in the room crafting the offense.  They have to be the RIGHT offensive minds.

This is why an offensive HC can better wrangle a motley crew like this to get it to function better. McD has no idea how to initiate that. But you’re right, you can’t put 3 geniuses in a room and expect them to invent something remarkable. You need a project manager to wrangle them so their ideas flow toward a common and achievable goal. 

[CoudyBills]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

I agree somewhat to what Simms is saying but take the 3 teams Simms is mentioning here.... The Bengals, Eagles and 49ers, all 3 of these teams have QB's on rookie contracts, when Burrow, Hurts and either Purdy or Lance reup the contract they'll also be making big decisions. We should have more talent around Josh and on defense but that's what happens when you don't draft well or is it on coaching? Yes Leslie Frazier runs a version of Sean McDermott's defense but another DC may have a much better version that allows us to get to the QB better, we can't just keep doing the same things and expecting different results. I don't know if Dorsey's offense is good enough for where we want to be but it's hard to tell in just 1 season.

The 49ers also have Jimmy G under contract, not 40M a year, but not a rookie contract.  

[CoudyBills]

9 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

He HATES the Bills.... why give this clown more time?

The truth shall set you free

[Gunsgoodtime]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Oliver gets hurt and plays hurt all the time because he is too small for the NFL.  Stop drafting undersized guys and draft real men.  The third round LB from last year would not even make the Georgia cheer squad. 

One of the many wasted defensive picks that Beane has made, when we desperately need OL and Wr help.  Beane has been atrocious drafting the last few years and its hurting this team now

[The Frankish Reich]

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

He's not wrong about the talent on the offensive side of the ball - the OL and skill players - not being comparable at all to the other remaining teams in the playoffs.

 

When he starts going off on how there's no (this player that player) on defense, I think he's missing that we lost Von Miller to injury and that we were playing without DaQuan Jones who has been key for us, and with Oliver and Phillips hampered.

Right. The defensive playmakers other than Milano were out or playing hurt. Miller, Hyde: out. Poyer, White, even Jordan Phillips (his shoulder injury ruined his great interior pass rush): playing hurt.

Now Simms has a point about the defense going forward. Miller may be effectively done - what will he have left in 2025 if he even does come back? White may or may not make it all the way back. Hyde may never play again, or play effectively again. Poyer will be gone. So that leaves Rousseau, who really seems to be dependent on having Miller on the opposite side at this early stage in his career.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The Florio points on Elam, never throwing to running backs and the passing game are all right. 

 

The Elam point I am surprised they haven't used him more - the two offensive points a lot of us made here before the season when Sal C and others were telling us not to worry about our lack of otuside receivers and to see Shakir and Cook as "pass catchers" who would play a part in this wonderfully diverse offense

 

Sal also works for the Bills so whatever he was saying he was probably getting from the front office as talking points.
 

Beane knows he messed up the receiver spot see pursuing OBJ till the end and signing Cole and John out of retirement. 

[The Frankish Reich]

10 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

Wow... Florio absolutely nails it re: McDermott.

Right. Even setting aside whether McD is the right HC going forward, Florio mentions something I hadn't thought of before: you bring in a new OC and Allen has a big year; that new OC is probably getting a head coaching gig somewhere else the next season. So there is a real bias toward hiring offensive-minded head coaches, and that makes a lot of sense in today's NFL.

10 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The entire 2022 draft class was a nonfactor during the 2022 season

Not a "nonfactor." Cook had a fine rookie season despite a painfully slow introduction into the RB rotation. Shakir: same as Cook. Early season reps = late season/playoff big plays, but they never really got them. Benford and Elam had their moments, Benford early, Elam late. Both look like keepers to me. And Matt Araiza certainly made an impact ...

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Different analyst but same basic points. I can't disagree with anything he says here.

 

 

 

Who is this guy?  He's different than the Florio guy who does Pro Football Talk, right?  Son?  Or just a lot of Florios in the world?

 

Anyway, he's not wrong overall.  I'm not so excited about the presence or absence of "pro bowl players", I think it's a popularity contest and especially on Ds that are built to be greater than the sum of their parts, it's harder for one player to stand out.  But it's a point that both Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips (3rd round) are undersized, and that the Bills moved on from Phillilps and brought in the larger-size DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle because when everything else equals out, "mass" is a part of that F=ma equation. 

He's exactly correct that we have 2 WR who can win outside (and maybe that should be 1.5 since one of them had a low catch rate) and we built an offense around the deep ball.

 

I think we were trying to buffer the 1st year play caller with a lot of experience - his former boss on the Panthers, Joe Brady, etc - but I think that may have just led to "too many cooks" syndrome.  And I think there was no one who could rein Josh in and say "cut it out, take the checkdown, move the chains".

 

As far as the "take Allen off" point, I think there are very few teams that are >500 with their backup QB.  What are the Dolphins, 1-3?  The Ravens, 2-3? The Rams, 1-7?  The Eagles, 0-2?  I think the Cowboys at 4-1 and the SF49ers are more exceptions than typical. 

 

But, to his point, the Cowboys and 49ers both rely on a strong run game and a very well crafted short passing game, so there's a point that the Bills lack the offensive ingredients needed to take the pressure off the QB in the offense.

[The Frankish Reich]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Who is this guy?  He's different than the Florio guy who does Pro Football Talk, right?  Son?

Gotta be, right? Joining the family business.

 

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

He's exactly correct that we have 2 WR who can win outside (and maybe that should be 1.5 since one of them had a low catch rate) and we built an offense around the deep ball.

I think the loss of Crowder was bigger than we realized. This offense was best when Beasley was still Beasley. McKenzie is a neat gadget player but never really learned the slot. Shakir may someday, but he didn't get the chance this year; that's on McD and Dorsey. This junior Florio is also right when he says Cook and then Hines were brought in to get the RBs involved in the passing game, but that was never really implemented. The Hines addition in particular suggests a disconnect between Beane and Dorsey, maybe Beane and McD too? We barely used him. It's Offense 101 that an aggressive pass rush is best slowed down with screens and draw plays. Where were they?

 

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

As far as the "take Allen off" point, I think there are very few teams that are >500 with their backup QB

Of course. A stupid comment in an otherwise perceptive tweet storm.

 

As far as defense: I mentioned this before. It's the Billy Beane/Oakland A's thing -- "my [crap] doesn't work in the playoffs." The Frazier D is a great regular season D since you play average or below average offenses most of the time, particularly now in our division. Make most teams matriculate the ball downfield and they WILL make mistakes. Busted plays, penalties, dropped passes, and of course INTs and fumbles. Do that against a top offense and you just create 10 play/75 yard drives. Look at the Bengals yesterday: 2 (count 'em ... TWO) penalties. No turnovers. Every offensive drive but one a sustained/lengthy drive. They just don't beat themselves. So the Frazier offense (like the Billy Beane baseball roster) is a wonderful thing for getting to the playoffs with a high seeding. Once you're IN the playoffs you may need to change it up a bit. And he never does. It worked (barely) against the Dolphins last week because Skylar Thompson put together one nice drive but you knew he couldn't put together the two in a row that they needed. The Bengals? The put together half a dozen in a row just taking what Les gave them, 8-10 yards at a time.  

[Beck Water]

45 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I think the loss of Crowder was bigger than we realized. This offense was best when Beasley was still Beasley. McKenzie is a neat gadget player but never really learned the slot. Shakir may someday, but he didn't get the chance this year; that's on McD and Dorsey. This junior Florio is also right when he says Cook and then Hines were brought in to get the RBs involved in the passing game, but that was never really implemented. The Hines addition in particular suggests a disconnect between Beane and Dorsey, maybe Beane and McD too? We barely used him. It's Offense 101 that an aggressive pass rush is best slowed down with screens and draw plays. Where were they?

 

I agree on Crowder.  I don't entirely agree that McKenzie is a "neat gadget player"; he ran some good routes and made some good plays for us.  The thing is, he's a man-beater and I think you are right that he never learned to read the D and find the open spots in the zone.    So Crowder was supposed to be the zone beater slot, and McKenzie the man beater slot (and continue to learn from Crowder).  So we lost that when Crowder went out. 

I'm not entirely sure Shakir failing to "get the chance" is on McD and Dorsey more than on a receiver from a lower level of college competition needing time to learn his craft in the NFL.  He was getting a steady number of snaps and not doing a lot with them.

 

I kind of wonder if with Beasley, our offense evolved around his ability to read the D and find the hole, AND be on the same page with Josh about it - and we kept trying to replicate it with guys who just didn't have his ability and needed to have routes better defined for them.  Sort of like Rex Ryan's defense depending upon Jim Leonhard to decode it and get everyone into position, even when he was gimping around himself.

 

There was just some kind of weird disconnect a lot of the season where we would see guys open underneath, including Cook, Singletary, Knox, and McKenzie, and Josh simply wouldn't throw to them.  It was like he didn't trust our offense to be able to sustain long drives and mentally, to him, it was quick strikes or nothing.  That was his mindset in college, but I thought he'd evolved.

 

 

45 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

As far as defense: I mentioned this before. It's the Billy Beane/Oakland A's thing -- "my [crap] doesn't work in the playoffs." The Frazier D is a great regular season D since you play average or below average offenses most of the time, particularly now in our division. Make most teams matriculate the ball downfield and they WILL make mistakes. Busted plays, penalties, dropped passes, and of course INTs and fumbles. Do that against a top offense and you just create 10 play/75 yard drives. Look at the Bengals yesterday: 2 (count 'em ... TWO) penalties. No turnovers. Every offensive drive but one a sustained/lengthy drive. They just don't beat themselves. So the Frazier offense (like the Billy Beane baseball roster) is a wonderful thing for getting to the playoffs with a high seeding. Once you're IN the playoffs you may need to change it up a bit. And he never does. It worked (barely) against the Dolphins last week because Skylar Thompson put together one nice drive but you knew he couldn't put together the two in a row that they needed. The Bengals? The put together half a dozen in a row just taking what Les gave them, 8-10 yards at a time.  

 

We have learned how to change it up to handle, for example, the Chiefs.  How to cover and limit their personnel.  Part of what happened vs the Bengals seemed to be that we ran out of healthy horses.  No Von Miller, then no DaQuan Jones, Oliver and Phillips dinged, playing Jaquan Johnson almost half the game and Johnson and Lewis at safety almost 1/5 of the game.

 

But, what you say rings true to me.  Frazier's D for sure depends on the secondary holding up long enough to get home with 4, and if the passes come out quick and hit gaps in the zone, that doesn't work.

 

Is part of the issue just that Frazier doesn't make in-game adjustments?  I heard an interview with him once where he made it sound almost like a matter of principle to him, said something to the effect of "you don't like to throw out what you've practiced all week and have the players think that the coaches don't have faith in it", which seemed strange to me - if it's not working, wouldn't the players have more faith in the coaching if the coaches adjust?

Edited January 24, 2023 by Beck Water

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

1 hour ago, CoudyBills said:

The 49ers also have Jimmy G under contract, not 40M a year, but not a rookie contract.  

 

His cap hit is 12.6M

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/jimmy-garoppolo-14472/#:~:text=Jimmy Garoppolo signed a 1,average annual salary of %247%2C000%2C000.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

[Buddy Hix]

Beane has failed to acquire enough talent. Beane’s drafting is brutal and his contract extensions aren’t much better. Same situation as McD, deserves to be canned but absolutely won’t be.

 

Looking at the roster and the fact that McD and Beane aren’t going anywhere, expect to be in this exact position for the foreseeable future. Allen’s window will be closed before McBeane are gone.

[Since1981]

Hines. you traded, he clearly can run back kicks, historically well. Offense not using him was criminal. I’m not a Dorsey fan. Stuck on long ball. 

[Pete]

9 hours ago, Best Williams Available said:

Apologize if this was posted before: https://twitter.com/michaelfflorio/status/1617562321391620098?s=46&t=IlCHj31sbdfmj2MzT7PhGw

 

 

in the video the idea I like best is what Florio said about getting an offensive HC. The benefit of him, the OC, the QB coach and QB being incubators for creativity. Right now we have Dorsey and Josh, 2 inexperienced gunslingers making this choices. They could use some balanced input. McDermott can’t provide that.

I agree with every point Florio makes!

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Pete

[dave mcbride]

9 hours ago, Best Williams Available said:

Apologize if this was posted before: https://twitter.com/michaelfflorio/status/1617562321391620098?s=46&t=IlCHj31sbdfmj2MzT7PhGw

 

 

in the video the idea I like best is what Florio said about getting an offensive HC. The benefit of him, the OC, the QB coach and QB being incubators for creativity. Right now we have Dorsey and Josh, 2 inexperienced gunslingers making this choices. They could use some balanced input. McDermott can’t provide that.

I am not advocating firing McDermott, btw. He is, after all, the only one of 12 who is a defensive coach who got to a championship game in the last 3 years. But the trend seems to be pretty clear to me.

[pocoboy]

20 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

When he starts going off on how there's no (this player that player) on defense, I think he's missing that we lost Von Miller to injury and that we were playing without DaQuan Jones who has been key for us, and with Oliver and Phillips hampered.

 

I think the question OBD should begin asking: is it the talent brought in on the DL/LB that hasn't lived up to snuff? Or is it the McDermott/Frazier philosophy of heavy rotation that has stunted the development of talent into impact players?

 

It sure looks like the Bengals have hired this generation's Dick LeBeau.