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Chiefs at Bengals Game thread - 4:25 PM Kickoff


BuffaloBill

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23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

This is all results oriented thinking

it's a very common way of looking at outcomes but leads to inefficient decision making

 

I should probably stay out of this, but fools rush in where

 

What I think I’m hearing from you and @HappyDays seems to me like the somewhat different statistical conclusions reached by Bayesian and non-Bayesian statistics.  It’s analogous to the “Monty Hall Problem”. The classical statistics approach is to look at the set conditions and calculate a generally applicable probability.  The Bayesian statistical approach is to utilize additional information available to modify analysis.  In the case of the “4th Down Bot” the information would include how successful the specific IOL is at the play, how successful the DL is at stuffing it, any other available details applicable to that given situation with those specific teams.

 

JMO

 

But if you look at the link above, you’ll see that the Monty Hall Problem was hotly contested by very knowledgeable smart people, both ways

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Just now, Beck Water said:

 

I should probably stay out of this, but fools rush in where

 

What I think I’m hearing from you and @HappyDays seems to me like the somewhat different statistical conclusions reached by Bayesian and non-Bayesian statistics.  It’s analogous to the “Monty Hall Problem”. The classical statistics approach is to look at the set conditions and calculate a generally applicable probability.  The Bayesian statistical approach is to utilize additional information available to modify analysis.  In the case of the “4th Down Bot” the information would include how successful the specific IOL is at the play, how successful the DL is at stuffing it, any other available details applicable to that given situation with those specific teams.

 

JMO

 

But if you look at the link above, you’ll see that the Monty Hall Problem was hotly contested by very knowledgeable smart people, both ways

I will never claim to be a smart knowledgeable person😂😂😂

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