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Why exactly are we favored by 3.5 in Baltimore?


Adamb412
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The Bills are better in almost every category than the Ravens.  The QBs are mostly equal, especially with how Jackson has been playing, but even with injuries the Bills are still a lot better.

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

The Bills are better in almost every category than the Ravens.  The QBs are mostly equal, especially with how Jackson has been playing, but even with injuries the Bills are still a lot better.

 

 

I won’t say a lot but we definitely are better. If Dobbins is healthy, that makes them much tougher to defend. Allen and our receivers will eat. Can’t believe the Ravens have this bad of a defense. Doesn’t seem right.

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1 hour ago, 2003Contenders said:

Vegas likes to look at team rankings. The Bills right now rank #1 in team defense and #2 in team offense. The Ravens offense is good too (#4) but their defense ranks dead last in the NFL.

The books absolutely do not do this.

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Isn't the spread all about trying to even out the betting $$ on both teams and by extension how the betting public views the match up? If so, the books don't think the takes on this board for the past 48 hours are representative of the betting publics view.

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11 hours ago, WyoAZBillfan said:

Can’t disagree, unless you think about the one guy who got hit in the hand, didn’t get to go sit plays out and played his guts out for 60 minutes. Thinking exhaustion and a bit of pain in that throwing hand has something to do with it. One throw and the loss don’t sit squarely on him. 

True.  He's an awesome competitor and fatigue and injury had to figure in. 

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10 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I won’t say a lot but we definitely are better. If Dobbins is healthy, that makes them much tougher to defend. Allen and our receivers will eat. Can’t believe the Ravens have this bad of a defense. Doesn’t seem right.

The line of 3.5 Bill's favorites in Baltimore seems generous.

 

Not sure how Balt stops the Bills? I doubt the Bills stop themselves like they did in Miami. Allen and the Bills receivers should have plenty of opportunities to score. However, I'm not sure the Bills defense can contain Jackson. He seems to be playing at a different level. I don't agree with the premise that McDermott and Fraizer have the scheme to stop Jackson. I looked back and saw the latest 3 game sample . The Bills are 1-2 verse the Ravens. The last game was the horrendous weather playoff game. An outlier for sure. 

 

I would really like to see the Bills offense score quick and get a 2 score lead. That may take the Ravens out of their game plan. I'd much rather see Lamar try to beat the Bills with his arm rather than his legs. 

 

With that said, I can see another close nail biter game. I took the Ravens with 3.5 points. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

Isn't the spread all about trying to even out the betting $$ on both teams and by extension how the betting public views the match up? If so, the books don't think the takes on this board for the past 48 hours are representative of the betting publics view.

As long as sharp bettors don't influence the line too much.  Yes.

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9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

As long as sharp bettors don't influence the line too much.  Yes.

 

True, thanks!  But that influence only happens after the initial line is posted.

 

My point to OP remains the same - despite the histrionics on this board since the loss on Sunday, the public consensus is that the Bills are still a kick-@ss SB contender!  And I'm in agreement. 

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12 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

Vegas likes to look at team rankings. The Bills right now rank #1 in team defense and #2 in team offense. The Ravens offense is good too (#4) but their defense ranks dead last in the NFL.

They do not.  Where do you get this information from?

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1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

The line of 3.5 Bill's favorites in Baltimore seems generous.

 

Not sure how Balt stops the Bills? I doubt the Bills stop themselves like they did in Miami. Allen and the Bills receivers should have plenty of opportunities to score. However, I'm not sure the Bills defense can contain Jackson. He seems to be playing at a different level. I don't agree with the premise that McDermott and Fraizer have the scheme to stop Jackson. I looked back and saw the latest 3 game sample . The Bills are 1-2 verse the Ravens. The last game was the horrendous weather playoff game. An outlier for sure. 

 

I would really like to see the Bills offense score quick and get a 2 score lead. That may take the Ravens out of their game plan. I'd much rather see Lamar try to beat the Bills with his arm rather than his legs. 

 

With that said, I can see another close nail biter game. I took the Ravens with 3.5 points. 

 

 

Their scheme kept Jackson to some of his lowest career numbers. Their 2019 game plan was heavily borrowed from by the Titans for their playoff game later that season. Neither game in Buffalo had great weather, but they weren’t outliers either. The Bills were highly effective at limiting Jackson’s big plays on the ground. That’s a large part of the battle to defeating the Ravens with him at QB. The Bills may be 1-2 vs Ravens under McDermott, but if any game was an outlier it was the first meeting. I don’t think Jackson started that game and Josh ( in his first NFL game ) definitely did not. He came in cold off the bench for a horrendously ineffective Nathan Peterman and the game was already a blowout. The other loss was a great effort by the Bills vs Jackson but a blown coverage decided the game on a long run after catch TD by TE Haden  Hurst. This season Jackson does seem to have improved his passing, but McD and Frazier have had an effective scheme to limit Jackson thus far. 

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1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

Vegas also had Miami +190 on moneyline vs Bills last week.

 

Easiest money I have made.

 

 

You won the bet and that's all that matters. However, it was far from easy money. Anyone who had the Dolphins money line sweated it out to the last second. So stop embellishing. 

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1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

You won the bet and that's all that matters. However, it was far from easy money. Anyone who had the Dolphins money line sweated it out to the last second. So stop embellishing. 

 

Bills dont win close games, it was never in doubt.

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On 9/26/2022 at 10:33 PM, machine gun kelly said:

Because the guys in the desert like to make $, and we are the better team.  What’s up with the hot take when we don’t know injuries or anything else for that matter in a team that lost half their starters do the 22, yet advanced 500 yards to Miami’s 220 ish and we were based.

 

Dude, we lose one game and the sky is falling.  Rookie move.

You seem to be thinking that we are still, right now "The Buffalo Bills."

 

We are not.  We are the Buffalo Bills minus a whole BUNCH of our key players.

 

That results in a team that is somehow not quite the Buffalo Bills, and it's why we got beat by the Dolphins.

 

The team in Baltimore will still NOT be "The Buffalo Bills."  It will be another injured iteration.

 

What the betting means is that people who bet on football games still believe in the Bills, nothing more.

 

It's probably because the average sports betting fan out there is not aware of just how banged up we are.

 

 

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On 9/26/2022 at 10:29 PM, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

 

They still think we have Trent Murphy on team who prevented Jackson from getting any significant running yardage on one side of the field.  Leslie still has game plan though and when Lemur cannot run his game plan is very limited.

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