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Ranking The AFC 2022-23


corta765
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I went through every team game by game.....it helps sort out some stuff you might not think about when you just think of teams in general as Tier 1, 2, 3 etc.

 

1. (I am BIASED, but this could easily, and in fact SHOULD be the Bills this year....but)  Chiefs.  The schedule is the hardest in football.  As I intamately know this team, I would say that the defense is going to be better.  It's faster and deeper, and they will BENEFIT by not having Anthony Hitchens on the field.  Honey Badger...love him...but he was making a ton of business decisions last season.  Andy Ried was an offensive guru before Kelce and Hill and he'll be one until he dies.  He's gotten production his entire coaching career out of whoever he's had, and this group of WR, while missing Hill, who is great....is deeper.  The O line is really good.  This is the most balanced team KC has had in the Mahomes era.  

 

2.  Baltimore.  They remained very competive despite all the inuries.  Lamar isn't a great passer, but he's not as bad as some claim.  If they stay healthy, they should be a tough team to beat again.

 

3.  Buffalo (OR PUT KC HERE...whatever)  I think the Bills will also have some trouble with a bit harder of a schedule this season.  I think the division isn't as tough as the AFC west, but Miami is better, New England isn't trash....just the Jets as pushovers.  The Bills are all in for this year and there is every reason to think they should be the 1 seed and AFC champion.  

 

4.  Titans.  *****THIS IS PLAYOFF SEEDING ONLY*****  I don't think the Titans are the 4th best team in the AFC...they will just win their garbage division.  Henry is getting old.  Tannehill is getting older and his target group isn't better than last years.  Their O line isn't great.  They will rely on a decent defense, good coaching and an easy shedule to get into the playoffs with a very underwhelming record.

 

5.  Chargers.  (or this could be KC too)  I think the Chargers and the Chiefs are the 2 real contenders in the AFC west...whoever doesn't win the division, ends up with the 5 seed.  I would say that even last year, the Chargers have a ton of talent and BAD coaching.  Staley is supposed to be a defensive guru...they were horrible on D.  And Joe Lombardi clearly isn't the kind of O Coordinater who has any business running his own show on offense.  He clearly just did what Sean Payton told him to do in new orleans...calling a TON of short passing plays designed for Drew Brees when he has a stallion at QB.  They should be big time contenders, but their coaches aren't equal to it.

 

6.  Cincinatti.  Super Bowl hangover, plus some regression to the mean on some stuff....too much talent not to make it, but last year was something of a mix of fluke and luck, AND talent all coming together at the right time.

 

7.  Cleveland.  ...So here is the thing.  as I said, I went over everyone game by game....and the roster is talented enough to put some W's on the board until Watson is around...whenever that is.  I think there is enough favorable schedule wise that they can grind out enough W's to eek into the final playoff spot.

 

8.  Miami.  The picture of average, with good parts and pieces all over the field, but some tough games, and a QB that isn't quite big time enough to pull a few out on his own, leaves Miami on the cusp. 

 

9.  New England.  Good coaching, and I think Mac Jones is pretty good...but they just don't have enough around him and the OC crap show they got going on isn't good.

 

10.  Denver.  You might think this is low.  Denver isn't a horrible team..and Russ is a big upgrade at QB.  But Chargers and Chiefs in division, along with coaches all accross the board who are all new to their roles....plus some of Denvers skill positoin players being kind of overrated....I don't see them making it in....Vegas only has them at over/under 9.5  I'm not sure 10 is enough to get in, and I am not sure Denver gets to 10 this year. 

 

11.  Indy.  Count me among hte few who aren't buying Matt Ryan...and who think the Colts offense is a bit overrated even without him.  They are in a winnable division, which will keep them in contention all year, but they are a pretender.

 

12.  Raiders.  I am really low on these guys.  Their line sucks.  They don't have a good RB.  They have good pass rushing ends...but if they don't muck things up, the secondary and LB's aren't good either.  They had a TON of items that should regress to the mean...and this is probably a 6 win or so team at most.

 

13.  Jacksonville.  I think they also, like the Colts, COULD maybe stay in contention for a division title by being in a bad division for a while....but they are at least another year and more roster turnover away from making any noise.

 

14. Houston.   ....clearly in the early stages of a complete rebuild.  IT's all about seeing of Mills is a worthwhile QB or not.  That's all.

 

15.  Jets.  Even after what some say was a great draft, this roster isn't good or deep at any spot and Wilson is hurt....and he's NOT IT anyhow.  I saw enough last year to believe he's just not an NFL QB.  The Jets are destined to bringing in yet another coach and GM next year becasue the QB the current guys bet on, sucks.

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Many have the Chargers near the top. I'm still not buying it. Not until I see real results. So I go with the Bills and Chiefs--with the Bengals and Raiders closing the gap, but everyone else is still chasing, no matter what order you put them in.

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10 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Actually agree with you on Baltimore….sooner or later they are going to string some playoff wins together and I think they win the North…. They are lacking big time at wide out though and in the passing game in general. 

 

So I listened to a guy on OBD who was a Ravens media member. They basically said Baltimore is going back to running 2 to 3 TE sets and the WR corp is not going to be featured as much as that is what gave the offense the most success in 2019 when they went wild. I still think ODB is an amazing fit there in every way and he eventually signs there in DEC. 

 

As I said I really like Lamar outside of when he plays the Bills and think he will get them over the top at some point. 

2 hours ago, CSBill said:

Many have the Chargers near the top. I'm still not buying it. Not until I see real results. So I go with the Bills and Chiefs--with the Bengals and Raiders closing the gap, but everyone else is still chasing, no matter what order you put them in.

 

Chargers are tough because I don't like putting them that high as they haven't proven anything despite incredible talent. But I feel if I don't put them there they are winning the AFC and I will look Feb and go wtf was I thinking. The answer probably is the middle as they make the WC and win a game before falling out.

 

I still think they have a major home field disadvantage which forever will be a problem because that does matter to some extent.

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2 hours ago, CSBill said:

Many have the Chargers near the top. I'm still not buying it. Not until I see real results. So I go with the Bills and Chiefs--with the Bengals and Raiders closing the gap, but everyone else is still chasing, no matter what order you put them in.

 

The Ravens had a lot of injuries last year. If they stay healthy I could see them winning the north. 

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10 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Actually agree with you on Baltimore….sooner or later they are going to string some playoff wins together and I think they win the North…. They are lacking big time at wide out though and in the passing game in general. 

 

You may scoff at this because it's tied to fantasy football, but Rashod Bateman is considered a WR with big upside this year.

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1. Bills

2. Bengals

3. Chargers

4. Colts

=================
5. Broncos

6. Raiders

7. Chiefs

==================
8. Ravens

9. Pats

10. Titans

11. Browns

12. Steelers

13. Dolphins

14. Jaguars

15. Jets

16. Texans

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18 hours ago, corta765 said:

We are at the point rosters are more or less set outside of some camp battles and you have a general idea of who most teams are. Given the moves this offseason across the conference and league I can't see much happening in preseason that will change peoples opinions. I did this last year ranking each conference with a little blurb for each team. Today is the AFC and later the NFC this week. Agree, disagree, tell me I am idiot and the reason for all of the worlds issue, whatever lay out your thoughts lol:

 

The Class of the AFC:

Baltimore- Fun fact they were 8-3 and the 1 seed before the plague destroyed their team in 2021. Whether you love and don't love Lamar (count me as love) they have a strong defense and will impose their will. I believe they are due for a breakthrough postseason wise sooner then later

Buffalo- Super Bowl or bust no way around it between the addition of Von Miller and overall depth that has been added

Cincinnati- I think this Cincy team is better then last years but the record may only move up to 11-6 because of the division and conference. Regardless they are an explosive group

Kansas City- Tyreek takes a scary factor away on offense, but Mahomes is still there and until they are out they are always what feels like the team to beat after 4 straight AFC titles.

Los Angeles Chargers- Talent wise they can match anyone and they missed the playoffs off of playoff tiebreakers in 2021. I always question what they can do as ownership has forever been cheap and they have no homefield advantage in LA which feels like it will catch them. Either way if you said they are in the SB come February I wouldn't be the least bit shocked.

 

Playoff Contenders

Denver- Could Russ and crew take the crown year 1? Absolutely, but I think their best football will be in a year or two as a new coach and system is established. Regardless with Russ they are a playoff team.

Las Vegas- If you think they should be up higher I wouldn't disagree. But I would like to see the Raiders do more then just a wildcard appearance as that has been it with Carr.

Miami- Regardless of your belief in Tua (I think he's average with flashes) he just has a stacked lineup around him that he just needs to do enough to make the Phins a playoff team. Biggest issue is their schedule is a buzz saw up and down.

 

Cleveland*- They are their own category as no one for sure knows how long Watson plays. On paper, strictly paper they are incredibly solid at every spot and Watson pushes them up. But football is loaded with teams who on paper look great and flame out because of pressure and noise. I think they lose Watson for 12 games and limp to a 7-10 season as the pressure and noise mixed with no Watson beats them down. Could they do better? 100% but I honestly think no one has a solid read here.

 

Could be a playoff team, Could be 6-11 

Indianapolis Colts- If you buy Matt Ryan then they are a playoff contender, if you think he is past his prime they need the collective whole to carry this team. I am not a fan of their WR corp and I don't know how much more Taylor can do to carry the load.

Jacksonville Jaguars- Doug Pederson has take a young QB and went places before and now has one who pure talent wise is better then Wentz. I can easily see the Jags offense becoming good pretty quick if they can help build Lawrence confidence and decision making up. Urban wrecked things so bad people forget the hype and talent T Law has. The major question is if the defense can go from being an EZ-Pass to something that can hang around in games. For the record they are my dark horse pick this year and I have them winning the South.

New England Patriots- I actually think Mac Jones is pretty decent and could have a better year. I also look at what NE surrounded him with and outside of a Marino type heroic performance they have a tall task to compete to the playoffs. BB can only do so much to cover their holes against an AFC loaded with fast aggressive offenses and defenses not based in 1990 conservative football.

Pittsburgh Steelers- Their skill position group on offense can make noise, can Mitch or Kenny drive the car fast enough to stay up with the rest of their division? The defense will do enough to keep them in games, it is on the offense being potent enough.

Tennessee Titans- There is data that Derrick Henry already has started to decline going back to last year. They look weaker across the board and while I love Bobby Woods he is not AJ Brown. Their playoff hopes hinge on the Colts staying neutral and winning the division. 

 

On To The Draft

Houston- A successful season could be 3-14 as Mills shows he can be the guy and the rookies develop OR Mills isn't the guy and the rest of the young roster improves while getting a top 3 pick for QB

NY Jets- They already had a daunting task before the Wilson injury with the way the AFC is. Now you hope Wilson shows tangible improvement in less games then desired played, the offense has some pep while the defense becomes a formidable unit, and they finish 5-11 while getting wins over MIA and NE at home.

Corta, first I remember last years posts so thanks for putting together.

 

Indy as such a toss up I don’t agree.  They have a more complete team and Ryan is an upgrade over Wentz.  Ryan has played on bad ATL teams, but he has produced.  With that RB and a solid defense, they will do well.  I’m guessing the win the South at 10-7 to 11-6.

 

Youre on point with almost all of the other locks and this might be the year the Chargers steal the Weet from the Chiefs.  Look for the Raiders to be better as well.

10 minutes ago, Rico said:

1. Bills

2. Bengals

3. Chargers

4. Colts

=================
5. Broncos

6. Raiders

7. Chiefs

==================
8. Ravens

9. Pats

10. Titans

11. Browns

12. Steelers

13. Dolphins

14. Jaguars

15. Jets

16. Texans


Rico I like you’re list, but for me the Ravens were solid until they were destroyed with injuries.  They have a very deep roster and will go far with that 12 personnel formation. 
 

When the Bengals did well, the Ravens were banged up, Mayfield was playing through tons of injuries, the Steelers well Ben, yeah.  They will have a much tougher time this year.  I think the Ravens take the division, and the Bengals a wildcard.

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14 hours ago, inaugural balls said:

 

I have the Raiders winning the west

 

I'm leaning that direction too although still think Mahomes is probably going to have his best season of his career and be the MVP frontrunner this year.

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1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

The Ravens had a lot of injuries last year. If they stay healthy I could see them winning the north. 

 

They were the top team in the AFC last year despite being ravaged by injuries before Jackson got hurt.

 

I think a healthy Ravens team easily wins the AFCN which is saying a lot considering how good I feel the Bengals also are going to be this year.

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37 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Corta, first I remember last years posts so thanks for putting together.

 

Indy as such a toss up I don’t agree.  They have a more complete team and Ryan is an upgrade over Wentz.  Ryan has played on bad ATL teams, but he has produced.  With that RB and a solid defense, they will do well.  I’m guessing the win the South at 10-7 to 11-6.

 

Youre on point with almost all of the other locks and this might be the year the Chargers steal the Weet from the Chiefs.  Look for the Raiders to be better as well.


Thanks dude I appreciate the level of respect and discussion everyone has shown without getting dumb about stuff it makes it really enjoyable.

 

I guess I am not an IND fan and think they are team that gets more respect then warranted. I think their WR corp is questionable, Ryan is old, the OL is not as good, and their defense has older stars which is always risky. I say this and their going to go 12-5 lol.

 

LAC I think take the division too, I really like Vegas but of the three LAC/KC/VEG I think they have the most to prove before you buy in.

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6 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I went through every team game by game.....it helps sort out some stuff you might not think about when you just think of teams in general as Tier 1, 2, 3 etc.

 

1. (I am BIASED, but this could easily, and in fact SHOULD be the Bills this year....but)  Chiefs.  The schedule is the hardest in football.  As I intamately know this team, I would say that the defense is going to be better.  It's faster and deeper, and they will BENEFIT by not having Anthony Hitchens on the field.  Honey Badger...love him...but he was making a ton of business decisions last season.  Andy Ried was an offensive guru before Kelce and Hill and he'll be one until he dies.  He's gotten production his entire coaching career out of whoever he's had, and this group of WR, while missing Hill, who is great....is deeper.  The O line is really good.  This is the most balanced team KC has had in the Mahomes era.  

 

2.  Baltimore.  They remained very competive despite all the inuries.  Lamar isn't a great passer, but he's not as bad as some claim.  If they stay healthy, they should be a tough team to beat again.

 

3.  Buffalo (OR PUT KC HERE...whatever)  I think the Bills will also have some trouble with a bit harder of a schedule this season.  I think the division isn't as tough as the AFC west, but Miami is better, New England isn't trash....just the Jets as pushovers.  The Bills are all in for this year and there is every reason to think they should be the 1 seed and AFC champion.  

 

4.  Titans.  *****THIS IS PLAYOFF SEEDING ONLY*****  I don't think the Titans are the 4th best team in the AFC...they will just win their garbage division.  Henry is getting old.  Tannehill is getting older and his target group isn't better than last years.  Their O line isn't great.  They will rely on a decent defense, good coaching and an easy shedule to get into the playoffs with a very underwhelming record.

 

5.  Chargers.  (or this could be KC too)  I think the Chargers and the Chiefs are the 2 real contenders in the AFC west...whoever doesn't win the division, ends up with the 5 seed.  I would say that even last year, the Chargers have a ton of talent and BAD coaching.  Staley is supposed to be a defensive guru...they were horrible on D.  And Joe Lombardi clearly isn't the kind of O Coordinater who has any business running his own show on offense.  He clearly just did what Sean Payton told him to do in new orleans...calling a TON of short passing plays designed for Drew Brees when he has a stallion at QB.  They should be big time contenders, but their coaches aren't equal to it.

 

6.  Cincinatti.  Super Bowl hangover, plus some regression to the mean on some stuff....too much talent not to make it, but last year was something of a mix of fluke and luck, AND talent all coming together at the right time.

 

7.  Cleveland.  ...So here is the thing.  as I said, I went over everyone game by game....and the roster is talented enough to put some W's on the board until Watson is around...whenever that is.  I think there is enough favorable schedule wise that they can grind out enough W's to eek into the final playoff spot.

 

8.  Miami.  The picture of average, with good parts and pieces all over the field, but some tough games, and a QB that isn't quite big time enough to pull a few out on his own, leaves Miami on the cusp. 

 

9.  New England.  Good coaching, and I think Mac Jones is pretty good...but they just don't have enough around him and the OC crap show they got going on isn't good.

 

10.  Denver.  You might think this is low.  Denver isn't a horrible team..and Russ is a big upgrade at QB.  But Chargers and Chiefs in division, along with coaches all accross the board who are all new to their roles....plus some of Denvers skill positoin players being kind of overrated....I don't see them making it in....Vegas only has them at over/under 9.5  I'm not sure 10 is enough to get in, and I am not sure Denver gets to 10 this year. 

 

11.  Indy.  Count me among hte few who aren't buying Matt Ryan...and who think the Colts offense is a bit overrated even without him.  They are in a winnable division, which will keep them in contention all year, but they are a pretender.

 

12.  Raiders.  I am really low on these guys.  Their line sucks.  They don't have a good RB.  They have good pass rushing ends...but if they don't muck things up, the secondary and LB's aren't good either.  They had a TON of items that should regress to the mean...and this is probably a 6 win or so team at most.

 

13.  Jacksonville.  I think they also, like the Colts, COULD maybe stay in contention for a division title by being in a bad division for a while....but they are at least another year and more roster turnover away from making any noise.

 

14. Houston.   ....clearly in the early stages of a complete rebuild.  IT's all about seeing of Mills is a worthwhile QB or not.  That's all.

 

15.  Jets.  Even after what some say was a great draft, this roster isn't good or deep at any spot and Wilson is hurt....and he's NOT IT anyhow.  I saw enough last year to believe he's just not an NFL QB.  The Jets are destined to bringing in yet another coach and GM next year becasue the QB the current guys bet on, sucks.

Have the Steelers been disbanded?

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3 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Have the Steelers been disbanded?

Ugh.  Lol.  Place them at 15, just above the Jets.  I don’t think Pickett is going to play this year and if he does he’ll struggle behind that awful line.

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  • corta765 changed the title to Ranking The AFC 2022-23
2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Corta, first I remember last years posts so thanks for putting together.

 

Indy as such a toss up I don’t agree.  They have a more complete team and Ryan is an upgrade over Wentz.  Ryan has played on bad ATL teams, but he has produced.  With that RB and a solid defense, they will do well.  I’m guessing the win the South at 10-7 to 11-6.

 

Youre on point with almost all of the other locks and this might be the year the Chargers steal the Weet from the Chiefs.  Look for the Raiders to be better as well.


Rico I like you’re list, but for me the Ravens were solid until they were destroyed with injuries.  They have a very deep roster and will go far with that 12 personnel formation. 
 

When the Bengals did well, the Ravens were banged up, Mayfield was playing through tons of injuries, the Steelers well Ben, yeah.  They will have a much tougher time this year.  I think the Ravens take the division, and the Bengals a wildcard.

I know they had a lot of injuries, but the Bengals just beat the living crap out of them last year & they should be even better… plus I’m not a Lamar basher, but I would take Joe Cool over him every time.

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3 minutes ago, Rico said:

I know they had a lot of injuries, but the Bengals just beat the living crap out of them last year & they should be even better… plus I’m not a Lamar basher, but I would take Joe Cool over him every time.

Yeah, and agree.  My oldest son who is 23, and a sharp kid in finance that the young girls all about Joe Cool.  I guess he has a 20 something following.

 

Lamar will wear out with his legs and be nothing eventually.  Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, Joe Cool, and so on will be the stars of the league.

 

 

they Re the next manning, Brady, Rivers, Big Ben guys.  The ones we watch for the next decade and beyond.

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1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Yeah, and agree.  My oldest son who is 23, and a sharp kid in finance that the young girls all about Joe Cool.  I guess he has a 20 something following.

 

Lamar will wear out with his legs and be nothing eventually.  Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, Joe Cool, and so on will be the stars of the league.

 

 

they Re the next manning, Brady, Rivers, Big Ben guys.  The ones we watch for the next decade and beyond.

 

Lamar can throw it though I can see him transitioning to a pure passer. He does have maybe 3-4 years left with this style before it wears out like you said. Up to Baltimore and him to work that out.

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21 hours ago, corta765 said:


Honestly I can’t right now. It would be a very bad and sad situation 

It really would be.

I know it's obviously not likely, but it is conceivable. DW was a top five QB before he took his time off. And the Cleveland Stains have some talent on that team. If there is some resolution where DW only has a six, or eight game suspension, they make the playoffs, other team's injuries, etc... oof. What a nightmare for the league. I wonder if this thought might be in Goodell's head as he deals with this mess?

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21 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

It really would be.

I know it's obviously not likely, but it is conceivable. DW was a top five QB before he took his time off. And the Cleveland Stains have some talent on that team. If there is some resolution where DW only has a six, or eight game suspension, they make the playoffs, other team's injuries, etc... oof. What a nightmare for the league. I wonder if this thought might be in Goodell's head as he deals with this mess?


I think part of sentiment for a year long suspension is literally get him away and let the story die. It is inevitable he will come back, but if you can get rid of it long enough when he returns it’s muted.

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Man, the AFC really is stacked this year.  The hope is that once the season starts, some teams end up being more hype than anything else - but right now, the differences between the top 5 look pretty thin.  I could see a lot of close games, and a nip & tuck battle for the 1 seed until the final weeks.

 

I know the opener is a non-conference affair, but I want to win that game BAD.  That is some kind of statement game - beating the defending SB champs on their turf.  And I don't want to get behind the 8-ball like we did last year (at the time when we lost to Pitt, I completely shrugged it off, because hopes were so high - but it did set sort of a tone for the season).

 

Cripes...is it September yet?  

 

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