Best Case/Worst Case AFC East

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 7/20/2022 at 11:21 AM, Greg S said:

 

It's certainly possible both Poyer/Hyde show some decline. I just get the feeling that the Bills pass rush and run defense will be much better this year. Last year they were a paper tiger beating up on bad teams/QB's to get their " #1 ranking". I think they will be much better against good offenses this year. Beane addressed the LOS with more than just signing Von.

100% agree. The ranking will drop but they will be a better defense. Hopefully when it matters most in the post-season.

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

100% agree. The ranking will drop but they will be a better defense. Hopefully when it matters most in the post-season.

 

Feel the same way. The ranking will probably be top 5-10 but they will be a better defense than last years "number 1" ranked defense. 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Greg S

[corta765]

10 hours ago, ganesh said:

It is funny how the OP has put the onus on all the teams for why they will be great or worse (full control of their destiny).  However, for the Bills, he has made the worst case scenario be dependent on another team (Miami).... If the Bills do their thing (like the other teams, they should be winning the division irrespective of how Miami does)

 

I did say the offense is not as dynamic and the defense is middling so it does open the door. If you put the Bills in the AFC South they could have Keenum at QB and win the division. I have some respect for Miami and NE has proven to be a tough out so if things don't go swimmingly I 100% can see one of them jump ahead. With that said Josh is one of the top 3 best players in the league so their worst case plateau is higher then most. Same concept applies to KC.

8 hours ago, The Dean said:

I'm thinking the Bills best case for the AFC East is 8-0

 

The worst case is probably 2-6 or maybe 3-5.  But I don't see that happening this year, without serious injury issues.

 

Did the Colts rejoin the division

[The Dean]

3 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

6-0. Jets, Dolphins, Pats.

 

Duh. What the hell was I thinking

 

Yes, 6-0 best case. 4-2 worst case

[FilthyBeast]

On 7/21/2022 at 12:22 PM, Success said:

Anyone ever check the Pats boards?  The perception of Jones is radically different from what it is here or anywhere else.  I'd say most of their fans think he's going to be elite, and some even agree w/ Schrager that he could be a dark horse for MVP.

 

Regardless, he's pretty decent, and I'm inclined to think both Tua and Wilson will be capable QB's.  We aren't going to get the cakewalk of a division that the Pats got for 2 decades - which is kind of a bummer, but also a bit more fun. 

 

Barring anything unforeseen, I'd agree w/ most that the division should be ours fairly easily (I don't expect the team to buy into the hype like they did last year, which led to some lapses like the Jags game).  

 

Beyond that, I see a lot of close division games deciding the rest of the order.  I'd probably pick Miami #2, Pats #3 and Jets #4, but big improvement from the Jets would hardly surprise me.

 

 

Jones had a great rookie season and didn't play like a typical rookie for the most part.

 

I think the issue most people see with him is the perception he's already at his ceiling, or has limited room to grow. If that's true that the Pats probably aren't going to improve much this year unless they field a truly dominant defense that can sustain success over the course of the whole season and beyond.

 

But if Jones does have a high ceiling left to attain then I could definitely see him in the MVP mix and the Pats unfortunately looking like the teams from years past that dominated the division. Big difference for the Bills is they finally have their own franchise QB to not allow the Pats to run away with the division in that scenario.

[Success]

13 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Jones had a great rookie season and didn't play like a typical rookie for the most part.

 

I think the issue most people see with him is the perception he's already at his ceiling, or has limited room to grow. If that's true that the Pats probably aren't going to improve much this year unless they field a truly dominant defense that can sustain success over the course of the whole season and beyond.

 

But if Jones does have a high ceiling left to attain then I could definitely see him in the MVP mix and the Pats unfortunately looking like the teams from years past that dominated the division. Big difference for the Bills is they finally have their own franchise QB to not allow the Pats to run away with the division in that scenario.

 

I have a bit more fear of Jones exceeding expectations than I let on.  I was really hoping that they wouldn't do a Montana/Young thing there.

 

I still don't believe it will be that, but there is a small chance of it.  Other teams should have hopped on Jones last year in the draft - he really is pretty decent.  Though, it's still hard for me to tell how much of that is Belichick.  He made Cassell and Jimmy G. look really good, too.

 

[RocCityRoller]

Good post OP, generally agree.

 

I think all of the division rivals have improved on paper. A nice side effect of that is that they should all be capable of splitting with each other. It will be very important that the Bills get a sweep or two in the division for the extra win and tie breakers.

 

I think the defense holds close to steady. I like the moves on the DL. I like adding the LB in the draft as a backup prototype Milano.

Tre White and the DBs are a bit of a worry, but a stronger front seven should help out. And to be honest Poyer and Hyde were playing white hit at the end of the season. Just need one more season like that from them. I think they will.

[FilthyBeast]

On 7/22/2022 at 2:46 PM, Success said:

 

I have a bit more fear of Jones exceeding expectations than I let on.  I was really hoping that they wouldn't do a Montana/Young thing there.

 

I still don't believe it will be that, but there is a small chance of it.  Other teams should have hopped on Jones last year in the draft - he really is pretty decent.  Though, it's still hard for me to tell how much of that is Belichick.  He made Cassell and Jimmy G. look really good, too.

 

 

This is true, while you can question a lot of draft picks through years in NE that Belichik has had a direct hand in. When it comes to QB they've found a lot of quality players going back to the most famous one in Brady being a 6th rounder.

 

Still extremely unlikely that lighting would strike twice in terms of finding another Brady type player in Jones, but he doesn't need to be Brady for them to be a serious contender.

[Jauronimo]

On 7/20/2022 at 6:23 PM, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's not really a bad case scenario as much as reality with this defense probably not being nearly as good as they were last year for the simple fact the quality of QB's they are going to be playing this year vs last year when it was one rookie/backup/etc after another.

 

In fact I could see this being the worst 'statistical' season for this defense even if healthy and with a better pash rush in additions to reasons you mention and giving up a lot of garbage time stuff like we saw in 2020.

 

If the Bills do manage to field a top 5 - 10 defense again this year (statistically) it will be very impressive all things considered.

Do you think the Buffalo Bills would be better off come playoff time with last year's defense with better stats inflated by a soft schedule or this year's defense with the additions of a healthy Tre White, Von Miller, Phillips, Lawson, Elam but worse stats from playing a tougher schedule?

 

You know what, don't even answer that.

[Captain Hindsight]

On 7/22/2022 at 7:49 AM, Greg S said:

 

6-0. Jets, Dolphins, Pats.

I think he's factoring in the extra tears from NE* fans and Tyreek Hill 

4 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is true, while you can question a lot of draft picks through years in NE that Belichik has had a direct hand in. When it comes to QB they've found a lot of quality players going back to the most famous one in Brady being a 6th rounder.

 

Still extremely unlikely that lighting would strike twice in terms of finding another Brady type player in Jones, but he doesn't need to be Brady for them to be a serious contender.

Yes he does. That team is not good enough to win a big game without top level QB play

[ColoradoBills]

Dolphins:  Great talented roster.

Teams' success is all on Tua and coaches.

Finish 2nd in division.  Question is as the "Best of the Wildcard" teams or an also ran.

 

Patriots:  Crossroads season for BB and the Pats* after the embarrassment they suffered to end their season.

Finish 3rd or 4th in Division.

 

Jets:  One has to think they improved a good deal this year in regard to their roster.

On the other hand, they are the Jets.

Finish 3rd or 4th depending on how much the Patriots decline.

 

Bills:  Finish 1st in the division.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Do you think the Buffalo Bills would be better off come playoff time with last year's defense with better stats inflated by a soft schedule or this year's defense with the additions of a healthy Tre White, Von Miller, Phillips, Lawson, Elam but worse stats from playing a tougher schedule?

 

You know what, don't even answer that.

Give me this year's defense with a healthy Tre and Von Miller teaching Elam & Groot the ropes.  No more pressures and hurries. I want sacks.....

[SirAndrew]

Tua will be a backup QB soon, and Miami is insanely overrated. You need a star QB to win these days. I’m extremely confident we win the AFC East. If we actually manage to lose the title to Miami with Allen under center, changes will need to be made next offseason. There’s no reason we shouldn’t win this division. Obviously if we lose the division yet manage to win the Super Bowl, it’s all good, but I think we need home field to make a legitimate run. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by SirAndrew

[SirAndrew]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Give me this year's defense with a healthy Tre and Von Miller teaching Elam & Groot the ropes.  No more pressures and hurries. I want sacks.....

Absolutely, I don’t think pressures and hurries have the significance they once did. Today’s athletic QB’s work much better under duress than their predecessors. QB’s like Mahomes are sometimes more dangerous once you chase them out of the pocket. You need sacks to get the D off the field. 

[ganesh]

On 7/22/2022 at 11:06 AM, MafiaMio said:

Pats fans just aren't used to having a mid qb. They think because Mac Jones is kinda like Brady he's automatically gonna be Brady. They have no awareness of how hard it is to find an actual elite qb or to win a super bowl. Spoiled af.

 

Personally I think Mac Jones' ceiling is Tannehill or Jimmy G. Can fool you into thinking your qb is good enough if the rest of the team is elite, but you're really just prolonging your agony about whether he's good enough to win your team a championship. 

In Mac's defense though, his defense POOPED big time giving up 7 TDs on 7 drives in a playoff game.    They guy earlier had indeed put a 7-game win streak.  Mac Jones will be a good QB that will lead their team to playoffs and may be even championships.  He is a very accurate QB who will improve this season tremendously.  The Patriots will be the ones who will be fighting it out with the Bills for the AFC East crown

[corta765]

28 minutes ago, ganesh said:

In Mac's defense though, his defense POOPED big time giving up 7 TDs on 7 drives in a playoff game.    They guy earlier had indeed put a 7-game win streak.  Mac Jones will be a good QB that will lead their team to playoffs and may be even championships.  He is a very accurate QB who will improve this season tremendously.  The Patriots will be the ones who will be fighting it out with the Bills for the AFC East crown

Very few QBs outside the obvious Brady Rodgers Mahomes would’ve hung with the Bills going 7 for 7. I think Mac will be decent, it’s really really difficult to predict QBs after one year because sometimes they are Baker Mayfield and sometimes they Peyton Manning in subsequent years. I think BB will be gone soon I’m curious how he does without that help.

[RocCityRoller]

14 hours ago, ganesh said:

In Mac's defense though, his defense POOPED big time giving up 7 TDs on 7 drives in a playoff game.    They guy earlier had indeed put a 7-game win streak.  Mac Jones will be a good QB that will lead their team to playoffs and may be even championships.  He is a very accurate QB who will improve this season tremendously.  The Patriots will be the ones who will be fighting it out with the Bills for the AFC East crown

 

They tried to improve WR with Parker, Montgomery and drafting Thornton.

 

Parker is a solid 2-3 option. Montgomery is a long way off from his GB promise, and I liked Thornton's size and speed in the draft enough to hope the Bills could give him a look, but most yr 1 WR struggle a bit.

 

I just don't see a guy who can create separation, and that helps all young QBs. Diggs does it with a mix of physical skill and brains, Beasley did it with knowing where he had to be against a zone, Smoke with speed etc etc.

 

Mac may have some troubles without a clear OC and middling level WRs/TEs. I do think he could be a Kirk Cousins/ Carr type of QB. Gets better as he ages, and can show out with a good philosophy and weapons.

 

[FilthyBeast]

19 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I think he's factoring in the extra tears from NE* fans and Tyreek Hill 

Yes he does. That team is not good enough to win a big game without top level QB play

 

They actually were good enough last year up until the Colts game when both Jones and the defense seemed to hit a proverbial wall and fall off the rest of the year.

 

Trademark of Belichik's teams has always been defense especially in Brady's early years when they won their first 3 SB's from 2001 - 2004, they showed that again last year IMO for most of the season before aforementioned decline.

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

They actually were good enough last year up until the Colts game when both Jones and the defense seemed to hit a proverbial wall and fall off the rest of the year.

 

Trademark of Belichik's teams has always been defense especially in Brady's early years when they won their first 3 SB's from 2001 - 2004, they showed that again last year IMO for most of the season before aforementioned decline.

 

They weren't even close to good enough to win a championship last season.  You are so delusional.

[FilthyBeast]

14 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

They weren't even close to good enough to win a championship last season.  You are so delusional.

 

They were  9-3 and in sole possession of 1st place in the AFCE and the #1 overall seed in mid december. At that same point the Bills were 7-6 and losers of 5 of 8 games.

 

Obviously a snapshot in time but many experts pegged the Pats as the AFC SB team at said point and there's nothing delusional about this. They can certainly be in the same picture this year too especially if Jones takes a big step as projected.